Two polls are out today, both taken on Wednesday night.
Galaxy and Morgan both show the race narrowing, with Labor losing 2% on the two party preferred and 2.5% respectively.
Details are at Possum’s place.
There’s also an earlier Morgan, a face to face poll from last weekend. Possum is waiting for weekend polls before updating his trend analysis:
Suffice to say that there appears to have been a point or two slip in the Labor vote over the last 7 days.
In other news, it’s being reported that Kevin Rudd is being asked to campaign outside his seat of Griffith in other Queensland electorates. All observers appear agreed that Labor has problems in Queensland, where there are a stack of marginals.
For Mark’s take on the state of play in Queensland, see here.
As we’ve done earlier, we invite readers to discuss the campaign in their seats and states. Campaign activity this week would suggest that Labor is doing well in SA, with Christopher Pyne’s seat of Sturt and the Liberal marginal of Boothby under threat. What’s happening in your neck of the woods?
Elsewhere: William Bowe has some electorate level news and information in his Week 2 roundup.
This reminds me, am going to catchup with QLD threads here.
Possum suggests a fall of a piont or two for labor.
A character-building week for the PM, but she hasn’t fallen off the horse.
The oppositions campaign seems more threadbare of genuine policy than labor ove the last couple of days, but the Great hOakes continues, making a distracting background sqeak, rattle and groan.
Absolutely nothing because Alby is still around and expected to keep the seat, again. So he will go on whinging about nothing happening on the Barton Highway, despite nothing happening on the Barton Highway for 11 years when the Liberals were in power. Apparently it was a State issue then, until $$ were promised if Howard got back in.
Elsewhere: William Bowe has some electorate level news and information in his Week 2 roundup.
With between 16-20% of the vote going to parties other than Labor or the Coalition, there are a lot of variables involved in trying to deduce 2PP figures from this data.
Andrew Probyn made a good point in suggesting labor not overvalue or take for granted preference Greens flows.
But what a rogues gallery in the second part, crooks pre-verts, misfits…
… yes, Terry, and a lot of regional variation lurking under the national sample.
37% primary vote in Galaxy isn’t good for Labor.
Paul Walter – I think the way the Labor primary vote sprung back and the Greens dropped when Gillard became PM was a good demonstration of where the primary votes went, and how the preferences will flow.
According to Pollbludger Andrew Probyn of the West Australian reports “Labor are also said to be expecting a Greens preference split of about 65-35 compared with 76-24 in 2007″
Don’t know how much difference that will make and whether it is true but Labor need to be careful about that primary vote.
The betting markets have tightened signfigantly as well in the last week although Labor are still pretty short favourites. It is pretty obvious that the election has tightened up signifigantly from last week and most of Gillard’s honeymoon lustre has worn off. The Labor campaign has been extremely poor imo and if they are to win they need to change tack. Another three weeks of “moving forward” and half baked policy announcements are not going to get them over the line.
Yes I agree, Chris.
The Gillard default is the defensive formation that the public still prefers, but crap can happen.
I’d still hope there is a proper chance that they (greens) could take a house of reps seat, it will be interesting how the voters in Melbourne, for example, will sort out a conundrum lke this.
Almost forgot who my MP is, but there are numerous posters going up in front yards for John Murphy, ALP.
He has been keeping a low profile since that “beef stroganoff” remark.
The Seat is Reid, formerly Lowe.(First held by Billy McMahon)
“The Labor campaign has been extremely poor imo and if they are to win they need to change tack. Another three weeks of “moving forward” and half baked policy announcements are not going to get them over the line.”
Agree Trenton. Bitar, Kaiser – all these people are terrible campaign strategists with quite lousy track records to back that assessment.
What buttons should they push?
Sadly, the ALP has screwed the pooch on climate, so thats out.
Id be going with GFC saviours, employment growth, NBN, and (turning a neg to a pos) parental leave and pension rises.
None of which (with the minor exception of NBN, which at least gets a run on ALP ads) they are currently doing.
@11 – NBN is potentially a good vote winner, Lefty E, because at least in Brisneytown, broadband “speeds” in outer suburbs and the bayside are about as spiffy as dial up. Not kidding.
Also, Kaiser’s now employed in “government relations” for NBN – remember the kerfuffle on his appointment without an interview, and the pay packet of 450k a year – so he wouldn’t be bringing his mad campaign skills to this effort.
I believe it Kim.
Thats a relief Kim!
Bitar helped beat one of the worst state oppo leaders ever to disgrace an Australian state parliament.
Reassuring CV, isnt it….
According to Rod Cameron (Tingle in the AFR) this election will ultimately be decided by economic credibility. I hate to harp on it (but can’t help myself) but if that is true, what the hell was labor doing dumping Rudd, who could have stood up every day and said I got you through the last three years (including the GFC) and I’ll get you through the next three years. According to cameron (and I think he’s right) that’s basically all voters want to hear – and labor can’t tell them. Jeezus.
I’m almost tempted to put money on a Coalition win now. I’ll be needing it I suspect.
CMMC: I sued to be in Lowe and have therefore taken a keen interest in the local member whose substance and profile are less than a shadow. The following highlights of his lifelong attempts to do not much at all I located on a Q+A info sheet:
Now, there is a man whose dynamic past fully equips him to address the big issues of the future…like where are my slippers and do I need to take Metamucil tonight or not and what’s my super really worth?
Hi Kim,
followig arbib’s arsehattery and bowes blunder; the tanner & faulkner exeunt; the former dudd’s army eating their own and yet another bad hair day from the red rodent (vale lying & blonde, ps hi mark got them right) this jaded punter is having a long hard look at the speedos and can’t wait for the large one sunday circa 8.40am for an update followed by kerbsiders…just love it…but wait there’s more…gareth’s cherry l to boot…oh the movingforwardness…such action.
the ALP has to run on GFC saviours. Its that simple.
theyve made it terribly hard for themselves with the thing that cannot be mentioned on non-dedicated threads [TTTCBMON-DT], but too bad: swallow your pride, admit you damaged your best shot, airbrush the pics and run the ads anyway.
I’d like to see a bit more aggression and a positive sell – the NBN is a great policy, as with the GFC success, and the benefits should be hammered home at every opportunity, especially as it’s something 99% of the population can identify with.
Yep – its it just me, or the ALP running a very poor campaign?
Or are they saving the good ads up owing to finance shortages?
This stuff is a no-brainer for frontline campaign material