Peter Hartcher has just revealed on Lateline that the Nielsen poll, taken from Wednesday through to today, to be published tomorrow in the Fairfax papers, shows the Coalition leading Labor on the two party preferred 51-49. Last week’s Nielsen was 52-48.
In other poll news, William Bowe reports a Westpoll showing the Coalition leading Labor by 52-48 in Western Australia, and on a Galaxy marginal seats poll comprising Macarthur and Eden-Monaro in NSW and Bonner and Bowman in Queensland, with the Coalition on an aggregated 2PP of 51-49, which represents a swing away from Labor of 2.8% on the 2007 election figures. Labor primary is 39% (down six points) and Coalition 44%.
Update: [by Mark] Nielsen primaries are Labor 36 (steady), Coalition 44 (down 1), Greens 13 (up 1).
This is good news for the people that matter.
Mining companies and the media.
Job well done really.
Not even the Australian People can be this spasticated in their thinking, surely?
Paul…I think you and I are about to find out that the Rudd government was elected in an outlier week and those who should be on the throne will be in two short weeks.
You and I will be crying into our lattes. For most ordinary Australians it will be bigger than the end of WW2. (From what I’ve been reading on Conservative blogs at least.)
Update: Nielsen primaries are Labor 36 (steady), Coalition 44 (down 1), Greens 13 (up 1).
What about the Greens preference deal with Labor? Might that affect the outcome?
14 days to go.
Well, the ‘good’ thing is I don’t believe the Coalition can win a comfortable majority without getting close to that 52% vote. No way Labor is collapsing so utterly in the electorates that count when Gillard still leads every preferred leader poll, and when the Bitar/Arbib model is predicated on pandering to marginal seat voters above all else. Antony Green’s swingometer is wrong—it’s calibrated to the kind of reelection campaign fought by multi-term governments.
Just call him Prime Minister Tony ‘John Fahey’ Abbott.
@2 – uplifting to see such respect for the Australian voting public – and now you expect them to vote how you want?
Nice comment @ 2 paul walter. Were you one of the Labor supporters pretending to be so outraged by Abbott’s line about access to cinemas? Talk about egregious hypocrisy.
Hey but it’s down from that terrible 53-47 Neilsen that meant Rudd had to go. Moving Forward!
Ken, not sure what you are getting at re “the cinema”?
Are you saying Abbott’s a hypocrite, or me? In my case, no problems- it was established decades ago, but one survives as one best can.
But am not sure of the context, here?
As the Goddess might muse, “Please explain”?
Ahhh.
Sorry Ken, now am with you. How did that fly under my radar?
Yes, classic Abbott… disabled are just malingering underserving welfare bludgers too, don’t you know?
Just like those other scum, the unemployed, that Abbott hopes will also get caught in the crossfire (I know dont dare even mention asylum seekers or pitiful foreign aid to places like Timor L’Este).
Remember this as a reprise from Abbotts time as social security minister when he did a similar slanderous attack on the unemployed untermesch,as toowork for the dole.
All the “aboriginal intervention” writ large again, with its scapegoating of the less advantaged for rank political gain.
Paul, I believe Ken’s point was that you used the term “spasticated”as a slur. At least one regular commenter here has a spastic disability, as it happens, and even if they didn’t, it would still be an unwelcome use of ableist language.
How can a coalition running on nothing but fear actually govern if they do win? Fearmongers and fools. What a combination for guaranteed successful government.
Yes, you are right Tigtog, I used the expression as a reflex, in a fit of pique.
I certainly hope its clear that I would prefer no slur what soever against folk who have to struggle with disability. Am on DB myself, also know what its like to be excluded.
paul walter,
I’m the spastic tigtog is referring to. I don’t mind people calling me spastic as long as its not used denigratingly or abusively. ‘spasticated’ in the way you used it unfortunately implies some deficit in intelligence. let me tell you, that is just npt the case with cerebral palsy. My CB is very mild (as the few LP=ers who have met me could tell you – 2 at least that I know of) and only on the left side, plus some very minor speech defects which I have under control, but it certainly does not affect my intellectual capababilities, though mentally it can make me prone to variants of anxiety neurosis.
Of course I understand your annoyance at the wider electorate if they do go for Abbott. But there are much more colourful ways we can describe them. Anyway, I don’t take offence; been around too long for that and been insulted too many times. Its almost like water off a duck’s back at my age. Comes with the territory, so to speak, though I wish it didn’t.
Thanks tigtog for sticking up for me and other CP people.
Anyway, enough of this. Don’t want to derail anymore.
We have this awful election aftermath ahead of us.
Good to see the Greens up another 1%. It would be nice to see them crack 10% in the poll that counts.
Paul Burns, I regard you as a brother and a mate.
Fancy any of the people here thinking I was referring to them and of all people, your self
I could be become offended my self, that people would think what several around this place appear to think, of me, never having met me or bothered to get to know me.
I thought people here might have enough intelligence to grasp what I was really referring to when I used this term, “spasticated”, a medical term, in describing the constipated, jammed mental processes of right wing sections the mortgage belt.
If I had used the term, “lame” as to the public thinking, would any one have been offended about a metaphor involving a physical condition, not a lack of intelligence and character, for heavens sake!
I’d of thought Ken lovell might have grasped the point too, but he likes feeling sanctimonious at my expense, too, so will leave it there for now.
I try to get to ideas, pc lingo is tiresome to me. But in this collective urge to burn me, don’t forget my point about the electorate still might have a validity that some of you should consider, also
paul walter, I am actually doing you the courtesy of believing that you intended no malice. However, if you step on someone’s toe accidentally, it still fucking hurts.
Yes, because when used as a metaphor it’s all about a lack of intelligence/character. This is the problem – people with disabilities feel prejudged as to their abilities and character when the medical labels for their conditions are used as metaphors for socially undesirable traits. This is exclusionary behaviour.
I get that some people find the enormous effort of not marginalising minorities terribly tiresome. Diddums. If you want people to just engage just with your points in future, then avoiding the use of marginalising slurs should make that much more likely.
paul walter,
Wasn’t, I hope, making a personal attack on you. If you read it that way then its my fault for not expressing myself clearly, so I apologise. I reiterate, spastics do not have constipated, jammed mental processes. If anything, we’re often brighter than other people because we have no choice but to devote our lives to things of the mind all the time. Hence the mind grows because of constant exercise. Though in my case I had to be taught how to think abstractly, though I was lucky enough to have a brilliant teacher. In fact, I;ve even been asked to talk about how physically disabled people, CPs in particular, can get ahead through academic and intellectual and literary achievement, though I’m no role model with my anti-social attitudes. (I think that’s why it didn’t come to anything.)
You and I clearly share the same ideological headspace, and are undoubtedly brothers and mates as you say. And, as I said I did not take offence. I too rail agaimst political correctness as an infringement of freedom of expression (and I had this view long before JWH came along) anti-censorship whether from the right or the left is one of the great passions of my political life; (one of my proudest political achievements was to organise a massive demo against Fred Nile when he visited Armidale to talk about his Xtan Commonwealth. He gave up and talked about anti-abortion instead and then made ridiculous claims there was a revolutionary cell in Armidale that had planned to assassinate him. Seriously.)
Nevertheless, I consider using non insulting terms about disability, race, colour, etc common courtesy, not political correctness.
And given Abbott’s weird views about the disabled, the topic is very much part of this election campaign because Abbott has made it so.
I meant to address this also.
@paul walter, for someone who makes a big deal about the aptness of a metaphor, perhaps understanding what spasticity actually involves might be handy? There is no such thing as “spastic thinking”, since only muscles can be spastic (i.e. locked in spasm). That you think there is some sort of absolute correlation of spastic muscles with cognitive deficits is stereotyped thinking of exactly the sort that harms people with CP every day.
And, while tigtog comes down hard sometimes, she’s absolutely right @ 18. Guess we;re both trying to make the same point to you in different language.
Cross-posted, tigtog. Again, much thanks.
tigtog @ 20,
Again cross posted, I coukd not agree more. This is one of the greatest burdens those of us with CP/spaticity suffer from. And, frequently, the people who think this about us are considerably less capable and talented than we are. And I’m speaking generally about CPs here, not just myself. If I have any passion in advocacy for the disabled, this is it, so you will forgive me if I rabbit on about it.
Paul walter @ 17 a metaphor only has a point if it is making a meaningful comparison. There’s nothing ‘pc lingo’ about it and I’m surprised that someone claiming to be a progressive would need to have such a basic point explained.
You’ve used a figure of speech that implies spasticity = mental retardation. It was both ignorant and offensive. I have a close relative who is spastic BTW, so I hope you’ll excuse my ‘sanctimoniousness at your expense’, poor baby.
Do you propose we all extend the same “Aw shucks y’all know he didn’t mean anything by it” forgiveness to Abbott whenever he makes one of his sexist observations?
TT and PB: an unfortunate sidetrack.
PW: they’re right, however understandable it is that unfortunate choices of word are triggered by the emotions dredged up with the prospect of a retreat into Name Of The Rose World. Best apologise and move on.
You are, of course, correct in implying that the idea of half the country believing that Abbott is a remotely appropriate leader of a national government, or that they could possibly benefit from his leadership, says utterly horrific things about the thought processes of Australians. Attack those who need attacking, if you will, but don’t catch the innocent in the crossfire.
Oh God, fancy the Mad Monk ruling Australia? What damage could he do? Can Liberal policies hurt me? What effect will slashing government spending have on company dividends?
I wish the Ghost would just stay confined to his hospital bed. The arrogance of the man to assume that he is better than the leader selected by his colleagues.
John Passant @13, unfortunately they need to maintain the fear. A war if possible or at least by targeting teh other within. Sound familiar from last time they were in? Prepare for more fridge magnets. War on terror, axis of evil, Eastasia, Eurasia etc.
IMHO both Labor and Liberal are using scaremongering. Julia just stood at the press conference and said that the core values shared by Kevin Rudd and herself are “keeping Tony Abbott out of office”. This is hardly a visionary position, and gives me no reason to vote again for Labor.
Tony does not attack Julia’s character, but she attacks Tony’s character.
The current ALP is full of chancers and power-hungry idiots. The Liberal Party is full of interesting people of pragmatism and intelligence. The greens are even sillier than the ALP. It is they after all who through their simplisitc worldview blackmailed the Victorian government into ceasing backburning. All the deaths that resulted should be on the conscience of the utterly evil man-hating greens.
RL – ‘the Liberal Party is full of interesting people of pragmatism and intelligence.’ Best laugh all week – you need to get out more.
Tony Abbott’s
flipfloppingintelligent pragmatism–”I’m proud the Howard Cabinet brought in more immigrants for Big Australia than any other government; passing WorkChoices was one of the best things we ever did.”Yes, you’re right, Commentator We’re Normally Instructed Not To Feed. That is interesting.
RL, could you give us a list of these interesting, intelligent pragmatists? Shouldn’t take long. You could start with that intellectual giant Joe Hockey.
Will be laughing a RL next week whjen the wisdom of the Australian voter prevails?
Signs are pointing to an Abbott landslide.
When Smuggles is finally forced to have his policies costed, there might be a change of opinion about his economic competence. I wonder how the MSM will spin that?
tssk, that still won’t make RL’s statement any less ludicrous. All it means is we’ll be crying more than laughing. May as well laugh while we can.
Jane…let me give you a glimpse of the future.
Prime Minstister Abbott gets in and after a week makes a speech to the nation “I’ve had all my promises costed and checked out. Unfortunately due to the incredible, some might say incompetance of the ALP we won’t be able to meet all of our promises. In fact we as a country will all have to pull our belts in. I am truely sorry that waste by the ALP has led to me not being able to fulfil all of my promises…”