Please keep the general election campaign talk (trends, breaking news etc) on these Roundtables, and keep discussions on the other posts focussed on the topic presented by the author.
Recent topical posts can be most easily found by looking at the Federal Election 2010 category.
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N.B.
1. Off-topic posts in other threads are liable to be summarily deleted at the discretion of the moderators.
2. An election topic that is problematic on these threads is Endless Rehashing of the Labor Leadership Change – discussions of its PR implications are on-topic, rehashed recriminations are tedious, off-topic and liable to be deleted.
According to http://www.smh.com.au/federal-election/punters-in-lastminute-plunge-on-coalition-20100820-12wod.html
there’s been a last minute rush on putting money on Abbott to win.
I have a very bad feeling about this.
Yeah I think the coalition has ‘closed’ to $3.00
Hey, its your money….
On Sky News this afternoon they said the betting markets now have Labor at $1.80 and the Coalition at $1.95. Speaking of Sky tonight they’re having a 90 minute election preview show and the panel will be John Della Bosca, Tom Switzer, Arthur Sinodinos and Graham Richardson.
I have no dobut Richo will say internal Labor polling says they’re going to lose (to minimise the potential for protest votes) and that the Greens are ferals especially the ones in Melbourne.
I suppose it’s too much to ask for a savage electrical fault in the studio involving the guests?
Otherwise:
Worst. Election. Ever.
Coalition almost even with the ALP?
There’s one poll I trust then. It’s all over red rover.
Except it anywhere near even.
On Betstat it’s ALP: $1.65, Libs: $2.48.
And IAS Bet is $1.60 and $2.60.
No matter who wins, we all lose.
Worst. Election. Ever.
That betting data is pretty good evidence that the punters follow the polls. They saw today’s 50/50 Newspoll and forgot that it’s within the margin of error of the last one. If Labor does win, there’ll be a few punters who are pissed off with Newspoll.
“I plucked a figure from the air
And aimed at voters everywhere.”
The Figure-Plucker’s Ditty (trad.), which first appeared in I’ll Try Anything at This Stage, and Why Not?, a compendium of public etiquette.
Can I remind people of what a vote or preference for the ALP is supporting.
1. Australian troops in Afghanistan.
2. Australian military training of Indonesian troops.
3. Support for use of scab labour against unions as advocated by Gillard.
4. Caving in to the mining industry and siding with big business over workers.
5. No action on climate change.
6. Right wing economic policies.
7. Reactionary education policies.
8. Spin, spin and more spin.
9. Factional figures such as Paul Howes.
10. Callous treachery and backstabbing of Rudd.
Now perhaps all those progressives on this site will pretend the ALp does not do this but they do. If you vote for them you are voting for this and excusing them of their sell outs.
Progressives who think that keeping a right wing party like the ALP in powere in hope they wil one day change do us all a disservice.
Labor needs to be punished and punished hard. I want an Abbott victory because the AL is an appalling shallow stand for nothing party. I will never endorse the above policies and urge others to not be conned by emotional loyalties.
…. and because of the above you’ll vote DLP?
@spana, I’d just like to remind everyone that if you vote for Tony Abbott, you’re going to get Tony Abbott.
1. Australian troops in Afghanistan.
2. Australian military training of Indonesian troops.
3. workchoices
4. Caving in to the mining industry and siding with big business over workers.
5. Even less action on climate change, since they don’t believe in it
6. Right wing economic policies, and if we have a recession, f*ck you all, no stimulus.
7. Stripping billions out of health and education
8. Spin, spin and more spin – and a PM who openly admits you can’t believe anything he says
9. Factional figures such as Michael Kroger
10. Callous treachery and backstabbing of Turnbull and Nelson.
Get over it, seriously. Or else go back to the Liberal love in where you belong and talk about how much you’re going to love Tony, PM.
Rebekkah,
I am no Liberal. I was a member of the ALP who resigned in disgust over the factional dealings, Australian training of Indonesian troops and privatisation. I am economically left but socially conservative. I am no longer bound by the innacurrate emotional loyalties that see people vote ALp becuase they think they are different. They are not. The ALp and Libs could be one party, two factions.
I vote against the ALP because they are fake. They use and abuse workers and unions to get elected. They are careerists who trade off working class support and then sell them out. The ALP are a capitalist party who dressed themselves up in union clothes and then implements Liberal policy. They are a joke and the only reason most Australians vote for them is emotional loyalty and lack of options.
I say punish Labor for their spin and sell outs and make them stand for something. Until they do they are not worth supporting.
Once again, Spanah, you vote for Abbott, you get Abbott.
And as a woman, that would be punishing me – and all other progressive women – not just the ALP.
Well, good luck with the elections, everybody! I hope you get results that you consider satisfying. My hunch is that it’ll turn out to be mostly the sort of results that folks at LP prefer.
And even quite a lot of blokes, too, Rebekka.
Rebekka – wasn’t it you in another thread about Rudd who reminded everyone that we don’t vote for the PM, we vote for our local member? So luckily for most of us we can preference the libs before the alp without it being a vote for Abbott.
I’ll vote green 1 in the house and senate but preference the libs before labor in the house and vice versa in the senate. Primarily over the Internet filter and I wrote to my local lib candidate before the election started saying I’d vote for him if the libs opposed the filter. Reverse in the senate because many of the sa lib senators are way too extreme for me.
It can’t be the Worst. Election. Ever. — because it’s an “economic rent” election. But that’s a big problem for Labor.
@paul walter, quite right – Australians generally, I’d say, but women particularly because of Abbott’s views on women.
@Chris, it may have escaped your notice, but voting for your local liberal candidates will give us an Liberal government. Yes, you won’t be directly voting for Abbott, but you’ll be giving us a Liberal Government with Abbott at the helm. And that won’t be “punishing” the Labor party, it will be punishing Australians.
Rebekka – We’ll obviously only get a liberal government if enough other people also do the same. I don’t think that’s going to happen. It’s an especially safe strategy in safe ALP seats because there’s virtually no risk at all but voters can still get a big message across to the alp.
Even if by chance Abbott does get in he’ll have a hostile senate to deal with which will limit how much damage he can really do.
An election between neoliberalism and hard-line conservatism? Seems pretty damn bad to me.
The reality is that very little will change regardless of who wins. Tha ALp and Libs are committed to the same stuff. In some ways the general public have understood this far sooner than the political class and that is why they treat the election largley as a contest between personalities. Gillard and Abbott larglel believe the same stuff.
The Gillard v Abbott debate distracts people from the real issues and keeps them passive. And an outraged left who always vote ALP is no threat to anyone. Indeed they are impotent and taken for granted every time.
Both of you might like to consider that no matter how hostile the senate is, and how much you think they’re the same, we’re not getting a national broadband network if Abbott’s elected, and that’s just for starters.
He’s also going to strip money out of schools and hospitals, and if you think the senate’s going to block supply and not let a budget through, I think you’re sorely mistaken.
Spana, 23, don’t you think that Abbott is likely to be more severe on working people than Gillard?
I’ll let that be the question, as to who gets my votes.
Fortunately, the Greens might end up with the eventual balance in the senate and that should make it easier for Labor to pass legislation, provided the legislation is rational, as to the given issue or problem.
Rebekka
We have a ‘progressive’ female labor premier in Queensland. For the past year there have been women who have lethal fetal abnormalities having to go interstate because they can’t access terminations in this state. Anna knows and refuses to do anything about it. She was a feminist and progressive once. I hope that she got something worthwhile when she sold her soul. But Anna is just another example of modern labor in action. All spin and appearances and to hell with true beliefs and changes worth fighting for. She will be gone by the end of the year and with her any chance of updating the abortion laws in Qld. I know this is a state issue but I look at Julia and see the same type of labor politician as Anna. So please open your eyes and look at what is going on. The only thing modern labor of the Sussex st types want is power. But they don’t know what it is for.
The only thing they fear is being kicked out and so the only hope for labor in the long term is for them to be kicked out for what they have and haven’t done this term
Listening to the will I won’t I vote against labor on this site reminds me of the excuses you hear from battered housewives. Everyone knows staying never changes anything.
So I don’t believe that voting for Tony is punishing all Australians. I think it’s the only way to save the ALP.
I am writing from a conference in Sydney where a senior public servant has told me a cabinet minister told him today it will be extremely close. It’s going to cone down to a small number of votes in small number of seats. We probably won’t know who has won for a couple of weeks.
Paul Walter,
I am a teacher and teachers were amongst the first to feel the extreme anti union stance of the Gillard ALP. In brief she attacked teachers, had our unions taken to court, wanted to call in scab labour in the form of backpackers to break our work bans. She trumpeted in her first debate that her strength was her victory over the teacher unions.
Sorry Paul but any PM that supports taking unions to court and using scab labor should not be supported. This is workchoices stuff done by the ALP.
My personal prediction is that Labor will hang on. I just hope the number of seat losses is big enough to send them a clear message.
GhostWhoVotes has Nielsen 52-48 to ALP
GhostWhoVotes has Nielsen 52-48 to ALP
So. What’s the bet that if the result is really close the Libs just hold a presser Bush style claming victory and calling on Gore…er I mean Julia to ‘do the right thing and not drag it out.’
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Perfect_solution_fallacy
Spana as a teacher is concerned about the so-called “anti-union” stance of Gillard. As a solution to this issue, he will vote an anti-education Abbott government that will cut $5 billion from the poorest students.
I call phooey. Specially I accuse Spana of being out looking after his own industrial conditions. That is commendable for a unionist, but as a citizen, to sacrifice the nation’s education outcomes – a strategically poor outcome – is the worst soft of magical thinking. Spana’s working conditions are one thing – education outcomes a completely different ballpark.
Folks, read the polls.
Poll average somewhere up around 51.5%. Thats means Tones has very little chance of winning.
Even the lower newspoll is on the rise since yesterday. And completely out of sync with the other 4.
Is it too early to start speculating what sort of ramifications there will be in the Labor party internally if they only win narrowly?
I think one thing is for sure if its a narrow victory – they’ll be too scared to try anything controversial for the next term, though this probably goes for both sides.
Disagree Chris. If the Libs win even by a small margin they will press ahead with all sorts of things because of their ‘mandate’.
(See Howard’s ‘a win is a win’)
Andrew Robb this morning on AM going on about the ‘waste and mismanagement’. This signals clearly, that if the Libs win, they will claim a mandate for deep cuts to education and health when they ‘discover’ that their ‘efficiency dividend’ savings turn out to be the mirage they always were going to be; suddenly all their mooted cuts will be twice the size. So we can expect a $10billion cut to education budget, etc.
I am in a safe seat so House of Reps vote means bugger all.
I am voting Nationals in the Seante because they have the most logical stance on Climate Change Policy – you know it’s right – join me.
So. What’s the bet that if the result is really close the Libs just hold a presser Bush style claming victory and calling on Gore…er I mean Julia to ‘do the right thing and not drag it out.’
Tssk: do yourself a favor and educate yourself on the difference between Oz parliamentary and US presidential elections. Because your ignorance is really apparent here.
How the Chinese have summed the election. [YouTube]
Previews ~
Julia’s draft concession speech:
Well, friends, we really st*ffed that up, didn’t we?
But it’s time to move on, now.
Tone’s draft concession speech:
We were SO close, you know? But, ummm, I’m pumped! I could do two triathalons back-to-back. I’ve ummm put my heart into this campaign, and really, I’d like to thank most of all my wife and my nine daughters, and Brian Loughnane – what a hero, eh? – and all you journalists… ummm
{Chants in background: “Three more years! How-ard, How-ard, How-ard!!”}
But the Party has ummmm lost this one, and Kerry we’ll just take a cold shower, get some ummm rehab, and I’ll be back on FacePage and MyBook and tweeting like a little birdie just as soon as….
{minders switch off microphone, lights; heavy curtain descends}