The polls have closed in the Eastern states, and we await the results.
Elsewhere: Crikey has a live blog here, kicking off at 6.30pm.
Life, Culture and Politics from BrisVegas
Larvatus Prodeo was an Australian group blog which discussed politics, sociology, culture, life, religion and science from a left of centre perspective. more»
5.42pm here in SA. Hope those exit polls are accurate!
jane, the “Smuggles set” are probably thinking differently on that.
Lol, paul walters.
and you..
Ha, ha, for something to do, visited the “Catalepsy” site.
What a foul mouthed bogan crew they are!
They want to do do Brown and Gillard what Casey reckons Abbott will do to witches.
They are mightily exercised by the culinary leanings of LP ers, but the good news at least one of them has ceded the election, on the basis of an Andrew Bolt remark.
SMH live blog mentions Sky News exit poll showing Labor 42% primary vote Coalition 45% Greens 9%.
Also Channel 9 exit poll with 52:48 to ALP 2 party preferred.
But I am so nervous I will watch a movie tonight! Breaking the habits of a lifetime…:)
Shit. Lots of big swings on, even though it’s early days. The early news is really bad.
Except for Melbourne, but shit, that’s small recompense.
Arch Bevis in big trouble in Brisbane. Now it becomes interesting to see whether Greens voters preference the ALP ahead of Libs. If not, its Teresa Gambaro’s seat. And its far from being Labor’s most marginal seat in Queensland.
Mike Kelly looks like retaining Eden-Monaro. We are sooo happy, he is an excellent local member. I voted Green but pref. Labor in the reps and Greens in the senate, Mr R voted Labor in both houses.The liebrals show pony has been put back on the float.
Couldn’t give a stuff.
Well, every day a fresh outrage. Maxine McKew she is gone and that fucker in tennis shoes now roams the electorate of Bennelong. Now where are my drinks.
Greens primary vote up by more than 30%. No doubt the Labor trogs will just chortle about them all coming back to the ALP so who cares?
Mine didn’t dipshits, not this time.
Still ALP 63 seats to LNP 53 seats, according to the ABC. So far, so comfortable and relaxing.
Libs to win.
Sorry.
Seeing as Victoria is doing so well for Labor, it makes me wonder why they don’t put more resources into it. If Labor wins, the Northerners can thank us.
Bennelong to the Libs – the Witch is dead.
Still to close to call.
ALP by 2 or 3 thanks to Victoria and SA.
Am thinking Fine and co’s recent theory about an immanent or opaque sexism at work under many people’s radar, seems to be being born out. Gillard is being subtly “punished” both in public and likely in some other aspects of her life at the mo.
Boy, QLD is rotten on labor this time. agree with HD, hungparliament is thebest non abbott peoplpe canhope for now.
No Green for Melbourne andit might all hang on whether WA turns feral again.
Greens have won Melbourne. Hurrah!
Well fuck me. Andew Wilkie might pick up Denison.
Just watching Paul Howe on the ABC. First time I’ve ever seen him live. This is the future of the Labor Party? Great goddlemighty.
Labor in minority government with the support of Wilkie and Bandt. Oh please please please let it be so.
Wilkie getting up in Denison? That would be a turnup for the books. Looking like hung parliament territory.
KL@22
Paul Howes crapping on that it would have been worse with Kevin as PM.
Tosser.
I hope his aspirations shrivel like the limp dick he is.
Julia and the ALP machine – you have blown this one out your arse.
What’s happening in the Senate?
Howe is another grouper and lickspittler for the now dominant right, that has dragged the ALP to this abyss, after little more than a couple of years.
OB the coverage of the Senate has been crap. But ze Greens must surely have control in the bag.
Paul Howes can go to hell, syphilitic mongrel. This would never have happened if not for him.
Greens polling 11.5% of the national vote!
Ken @ 23 – one can only hope! It would at the very least be a very interesting parliament and a bit of a practice run at what a green/ALP government might look like.
I’d always thought John Howard had lost Bennelong as part of a general swing, but tonights result looks like Bennelong voters just wanted to vote against him.
FWIW, I was one of the people polled by Morgan in their sms exit polling.
Rudd, class act as ever. I wouldn’t be able to resist the temptation to scream “I told you so!!”.
He might be an arsehole in private, but he puts on a good face.
On the bright side: the Lib/Nats can’t get the magic 76 (judging by the ABC figures). And Tuckey may still lose O’Conner. (Fingers crossed!)
Yep, hung parliament.
Yes, time to pray that O’Connor sends a Crook to Canberra – because I have a feeling that that particular Nat might side with the ALP.
Every time I see Paul Howes I want to punch him in the face.
Paul Howes is within the ALP known as lowlife scum.
But I think Arbib is as just as bad and the others.
Just imagine if Abbott bit the bullet and had Turnbull as Treasurer, they would have won by a few seats.
Greens to hold BofP in Reps and Senate. Awesome.
Why is Howes allowed on television?
Current ABC summary: ALP 71 with 5 in doubt = 76 at most.
Way to go guys. Masterful performance. Don’t know why so many of us gave you such a hard time when you obviously had it all under control.
Fuckwits. Night all.
Vic saved us from a coalition killing. But lnp still poss to win. Fuck you Paul Howe.
34, that’s why they got an inflated figure for that seat.
43, He is sure obnoxious, isn’t he ( Howe )?
” Fuck w-ts”.
Early senate figures for Canberra ….
The seat that would immediately change the balance are looking good for Greens….
http://www.heraldsun.com.au/news/breaking-news/greens-libs-fight-for-act-senate-seat/story-e6frf7jx-1225908252647
Memo to J. Gillard:
Take Mark Arbib, castrate him, and shove his cojones down his throat.
Ditto David Feeney.
Ditto Paul Howes.
Ditto Bill Shorten (in spite of his vice-regal connexions).
Do it publicly.
Please please lance this festering boil.
Having done that, take on the SDA.
Bonne chance – but believe me, it’s the only way that the ALP will recover – let alone redeem – its integrity (nearly typed soul, but I don’t do fanciful freinds (delib) in the sky stuff).
5 greens senators elected according to ABC predictions at 9.20 sat night (making 8 in total in the senate)
http://www.abc.net.au/elections/federal/2010/guide/senate-results.htm
Hung parliament.
Its abundantly clear to me Rudd would have won.
Hang your heads in shame , ALP.
Shame.
An obscure point. Does Steve Hutchings lose out to LeeRhiannon in the senate or not?
My Psephological skills are nil.
Good on ya, Maxine. Well said.
Biggest stuff up in Australian political history.
ABC computer gives the Greens in the Senate: #6 in NSW, #5 in Vic, #5 in Qld, #5 in SA, #3 in Tas and not enough of a count to call WA. Assuming Rachel Seiwert gets back in in WA that’s 9 Greens in the Senate and 1 in the House.
Yeah Maxine called it as it is.
I only heard a little from John Alexander during the campaign, but the little I heard was from an arsehole.
In Grayndler, apparently Albanese was given a run for his money by the Greens’ candidate.
In my seat of Banks, Daryl Melham, hard left Labor, the sitting member, lost the primary vote to the Libs. There was an 8% swing against him, but thanks to Greens preferences Daryl will scrape home.
If Wilkie gets home in Denison, it makes it a good possibility of Greens holding Julia by the balls, so to speak.
joe2 @ 46 – he’s made his quota http://www.abc.net.au/elections/federal/2010/guide/sact-results.htm
Anti-Labor swing in Qld highest in Griffith. Now there’s an inkblot to interpret. Maybe anti-Labor voters elsewhere in Qld were so annoyed that Gillard & co ousted Kevin From Queensland, that they rejected their local ALP candidate in retaliation… but would they still do that if their local local ALP candidate is none other than RUDD, K.M.?
“Its abundantly clear to me Rudd would have won.
Hang your heads in shame , ALP.”
Indeed! A fiasco. Now will someone take Howes, Shorten, Swan et al out the back and deliver a severe belting.
@wpd – a severe beating is not enough. Besides, some of them might enjoy it.
(signed) Madam Lash
Absolutely no evidence that Labor would have done better with Rudd. May well have done worse. There’s a lot of anti state govt stuff going on. Absolutely agree with Maxine about walking away from the ETS and not selling economic policy.
This is the exactly what the ALP needed. If you sell out on everything and brutally get rid of your leaders people will say no way. The ALP stood for nothing. People don’t want factional leaders like Paul Howes running this country. It has been given a clear message that selling out will not be tolerated. Let’s hope the ALP can’t form a minority government.
?”Julia ran an extraordinarily good campaign” Why yes, compared to Hitler’s campaign on the eastern front it was a masterful display of discernment, judgment, and razor-sharp strategy.
Wish I hadn’t felt so triumphant earlier, I am happy that Kelly won but I feel like shit now. I e-mailed bitar last night and informed him that he should resign if all this went to shit, it has and I expect him and his co-horts including shorten,arbib and that frigwit of all times howes to piss off,resign if they actually had a job,fuck off if they didn’t and explain to the rest of us how the fuck these idiots could take control of a major party, that said major party could be cntrolled by a bunch of idiots and that us poor bastards who are the voters of this country could be so fucked over by a bunch of mindless morons.
of course, with a hung parliament, Julia remains PM and can do so until she tests her support on the floor of parliament.
We’re not out of the woods yet, folks. Labor are on 70 and the Libs on 68, with 4 Independents, but there are still 8 undecided. If 5 of the Undecideds and 3 of the Independents go to the Libs, Mr Rabbit will have enough to form a minority govt!!!
If you had a minority government – let’s say Labor + independents – and after a year (say) the independents switched to the other side, creating a new majority of Coalition + independents – would that permit a further change of government without another election? Does it work like that?
‘Memo to J. Gillard:’
Don’t imagine Gillard is the innocent bystander in this, she is not that naive. She engineered and took the opportunity. She should also be retiring from politics and public flogging.
Mitchell @66 Can certainly happen like that. Nothing in the rules prevent it.
We’re in the Land of No Rules now.
FFS Fine get a reality check.
Even I of MINIMAL (sorry, have to shout) nous has been yelling at the meeja for weeks:
Sell what you have achieved!
Probably most voters don’t give a damn about apologies, but they might just might care about jobs – so:
the government’s response to the GFC;
(hence) the BER
(hence) the insulation – and meet the disinformation about the deaths and fires HEAD ON
and and and
but who cares? why should we? the meeja won’t do it…
so welcome, all, to the mediarchy. Would you care for fries with that? Have a nize day….
SBS is showing 4 Others, while ABC is showing 5 Others. Presumably the fifth is Wilkie. This now makes it more likely that Gillard will have to negotiate with two Greens to form government. Excellent outcome for the Greens!
‘ABC election expert Antony Green predicts Australia is headed for a hung Parliament.
UPDATE: As figures from WA come in, Antony has a new take on the likely state of play… Coalition: 73 seats; Labor: 72 seats; Greens: 1 seat; Independents: 4 seats.’
3 independents with the Coalition can form govt.
Fine @ 60 – I think the first two weeks of the ALP campaign battling leaks that was so damaging is reasonable evidence. Very unlikey that would have happened had Rudd still been PM.
Thomas Paine @67 – please support your claim.
We are in the land of no fucking sense, more like.
OH COME ON. Wyatt Roy the 12 year old just got in. let us hope his voice breaks before his maiden speech and he figures out what to say, beyond being, you know, available.
Adrian, that’s uncalled for.
The Greens vote strengthened while Rudd was still PM, Gillard failed to get it back. This election is a rejection of Labors choices in regard to climate policy is likely to have been the greatest factor in this result.
@ 60 ‘Absolutely no evidence that Labor would have done better with Rudd. May well have done worse.’
Yes of course and any suggestion to the contrary is a SEXIST MISOGYNIST INSULT to Julia Gillard. Let’s not forget the SUBTEXT of this campaign, which has only ever been clear to 0.03% of the population!!!
Well fucking done my home state of SA. Family First still have an odious presence in the Senate.
GOD dammit indeed!
Thomas Paine is right. This is going to go the same way as the UK.
And the indys HAVE to go with Abbott.
They’ll be enviscorated by the media if they do otherwise.
A lot of gloom and doom around here, but election day throws up a few little funnies. I liked the fact that there was an independent in Chisolm (outer eastern Melbourne) by the name of Nimrod Evans. If only I had been able to vote for Nimrod, I wouldn’t care about the result at all.
Nimrod For The Lodge!
Where is the The Devil Drink when you need him?
Nice line in prejudice Casey @ 77. I take it you only object to mindless stereotyping when the victims of it are people you approve of.
Brandis tries to float the tssk media narrative.
Already? It’s obvious though isn’t it. In order to unite Australia the lefties have to cop it on the chin. The big push over the next 24 hours will be to get Julia to “do the decent thing and concede.”
(Oh and Family First in the Senate? That’s one Independent to Abbott already.)
This outcome will be worthwhile if the Labour Right receives its just deserts.
The likelihood is that they won’t and there will be no lessons learnt. Already they are arguing that it would have been worse if Rudd had remained PM and that the EFT had to be dropped to avoid a voter backlash of greater proportion than that that has tank place.
Be curious to know who was behind the fiasco of the Epping Parramatta rail link. But again I doubt that those who were responsible for the most idiotic announcement of the Labor campaign will be held accountable.
The ALP is over. Done. Dusted. They won’t come back for a generation.
tsssk, no offence dude, but your track record with ye olde predictions hasn’t been exactly stellar.
Just in after all day in the wind at a booth in Grayndler for the Greens where they gave Albanese a real shake with appx 48% to 52%. The Libs are marginalised now. Bandler in Melbourne – woohoo. A local state Labor MP dropped by to chat with the ALP workers with whom we cultivated good social relations and when she was asked “how is it?” said quite simply “bad, people are really angry aboutRudd being sacked”. A “well hung” parliament is about as good as it gets under the circumstances. lee Rhiannon remains a strong Senate chance. Greens Party party is very happy.
The ALP is over. Done. Dusted. They won’t come back for a generation
I seem to recall exactly the same thing being said about the libs in 2007. No need to presume the sky is falling. It is just a single election.
Why is Howes allowed on television?
Shhhhh. He’s our secret weapon.
COALition 74 + 3 Inds minus 1 speaker = 76 = government
ALP 71 + [nominally?] 1 Grn + 1 Ind Grn = 73 = opposition
Say “Hi” to Prime Minister Tony Abbott for 1 term probably more.
patrickg….I desperately hope tomorrow I wake up with a hangover and a massive case of the wrongs…I really do.
The ALP just in power with the Greens holding the balance is my preference but I fear an arrangement like in the UK.
And how much influence do the Lib-Dems have in that Coalition? None to buckleys.
BTW: Gillard can stay or go as leader. The humiliation of either outcome will be just desserts either way.
Oh and expect some nasty rushed legislation in the months before the new Senate is able to change the present Lib majority in the Senate.
Interesting comments from the three ‘conservative’ independents on the ABC.
Very good akn, ha haha. I still hope they give her the ditching she deserves.
“3 independents with the Coalition can form govt.”
And a totally hostile senate if Labor learns to play the game that the Liberals have since they lost power, last time.
Bring it on brother if the tables have turned!
I expect there will be media pressure for the ‘caretaker’ senate to block anything the ALP brings up should they retain power or rubber stamp anything the Libs want should they gain power.
hannah’s dad, there is no Liberal majority in the Senate. You are hallucinating.
Damn it! Hung Parliament, dressed to the right. A victory for Rupert’s minions.
Yep. And the best bit Gummo is that we have to suck it up and for the sake of Australia fall behind our new PM as part of a united front.
From my point of view the parliament is screwed. However real ozzies who voted would disagree with me. Abbott has his mandate now.
“Abbott has his mandate now.”
Absolute bullshit. Settle down tssk.
It’s not clear to me how the ALP “blood-letting” recently predicted by Mr Mighell would come about.
The MPs and union leaders who inspired and organised and guided the leadership change, and the PM who was elected unopposed as Leader, all currently retain their elected positions within the ALP.
Who can challenge them? The pro-Gillard numbers in caucus last June were seemingly so overwhelming that Mr Rudd decided not to stand for election as Leader. It was a caucus decision, ultimately, not just a decision of a tiny group of power-brokers.
Those MPs now defeated come predominantly from Qld. Were there any remnant Rudd loyalists amongst them? Maxine McKew seems to have regretted Kevin’s ousting, but she no longer has a vote in caucus.
Moves for “revenge” could come from extra-Parliamentary sources: unions, ALP members. Is that desired? Desirable?
***
I had never expected to see the first woman PM have such a short term. And must now the first woman GG assist in stepping through the trap-strewn ground of minority Govt?
Sez who?
Dear Lord.
A win for moderate good sense over fundamentalism.
Both the extreme in the LNP (pretty small) and the much larger fundametalist lefties in the ALP and the Greens have been beaten back. The punters want one of the major parties (probably Abbot who is ahead on primary and 2PP) to form a government that must govern through a program of consensus.
Labor’s rabid 1930s statism is over.
FFS Adrian don’t be so rude. And same to you, Ken. It’s interesting that you immediately bring up the issue of gender. Supply evidence instead of abuse. I think what’s going on is way more complex than that.
As Maxine McKew said, walking away from the ETS destroyed Labor. Deeply unpopular State governments didn’t help. The leaks in the first two weeks were shocking. The polls were terrible under Rudd. And yes, the campaign was run really badly. It’s multi-faceted, and throwing a tantrum about it doesn’t make it any simpler.
Looks like Fielding and Tuckey have both got the arse. The results get better and better.
Sam @ #101
Sam the new Senators do not take their seats for some months, I’m not sure when but I seem to recall mid next year.
Until then the Senate numbers are the same as for the period of the ALP government, that is a majority for the Libs + Nats + Fielding + Xenophon.
Its why the ETS etc was not passed.
In that time frame Abbott will have a functional majority in both houses.
Thats my understanding anyway.
Meh pessimists. I think Labor will form a minority govt with the indies and green. SA Labor had a minister from the National party. It’s not unheard of. I’d back Gillard over Abbott in any post election negotiations.
Ummmm Fine @ 108 I’m not throwing a tantrum, I’m rejoicing. We won’t know for a few days, but it’s looking increasingly likely that the Greens plus independents will hold the balance of power in both houses. This is a wondrously amazingly glorious outcome that I could never have dreamed of until last June when some unsurpassed geniuses in the Labor Party decided to replace the leader and call an immediate election.
The Gillard totally poll-driven experiment has failed. So frankly has the Abbott experiment in total negativity.
There are big issues at stake for our nation. We need to decide where we fall on free market ideology vs targeted government intervention. We have the chance to do this with both rural and Green Independent members in the House of Reps. I can’t say that it will be a smooth ride, but it is a debate that has been a long time coming.
If you look at elections in terms of the victors write the history, then this is a rather unique opportunity to write a thoughtful and balanced history that does our country justice for decades to come.
This is exactly the result I expected and still forecast a hung parliament byt Abbott will have three died in the wool conservative farmer/protectionists to deal with. This is a David Cameron style Government in the making.
The Greens have been totally underestimated by the hopeless pollsters most people have ben listening to like the Poll Bludger, Mumble and Andrew Catsaris etc. They did not get protest votes and there was no late swing back to Labor. The Greens are the big movers because they are the true progressive left party in every way.They are unelectable in the lower house without Liberal preferences as in Melbourne but given modern Labors move to the right or the centre as they call it the dynamics are about to change massively.
This election has produced many many first time events from Female Prime Ministers to twenty year old MPs and the Libs producing an “indigenous” lower house MP.
Fairfax journalists were hopeless and stupid for the best part of a year underestimating the threat. Quite frankly if Malcolm Turnbull had have been on Abbott”s front bench in any capacity it may have been a rout for Labor. If Turnbull gets a decent front bench position watch out Labor.
As for people on this site tipping Labor tio win by 12-15 seats I would jsut say “who are you talking to ” every day of your life you must be living in some kind of monoculture.
The polls were terrible under Rudd
Fine, I have to take issue with this. He had _one_ bad poll. Historically his polling was well within the margin of elected incumbent govt – both coalition and Labor. To act like the party had no choice is to buy into their wholly specious and unsupported reasoning.
You can have a look at poss’s pollytrend here if you don’t believe me, and look at all the good Gillard did for them them. 2% – within the margin of error – at her peak.
Ditching Rudd when they did, and then calling an election when they did, and flipping on the issues they did cost Labor an election that should have been unloseable.
I say this not to canonise Rudd, but to condemn the power-hungry reactionary thinking that deposed him.
HD, who says that Xeno and Fielding would support Abbott? Especially Xeno. He would need them both to pass legislation.
And the Greens might yet win the ACT Senate seat. And that takes place right away.
Are you LP people living in reality?
FFS, this has nothing to do with ETS. Pro-ETS people don’t vote for “climate change is BS” Abbott.
It’s about many things. It’s about migration – yes, I know you people think you know better than everyone, but you don’t. People are sick sick sick of higher rents/mortgages, traffic, etc etc. Yeah yeah, it’s all due to lack of infrastructure, nothing to do with out of control migration numbers.
Back to your own little world people…
Anyone know if the independents can ask for proportional representation in the house of reps?
Shorter Gillard speech: I’ve always LOVED independents. They’re my favourite people.
Sweet tapdancing Jeebus. I never figured Tony Windsor as a power broker. For the record, I agree with Ken Lovell – the ALP broke faith with the centre of politics by veering further to the right and effectively disenchanting the left and that is exactly what the parliament now represents.
Fine, if you actually listened to Maxine, she also mentioned the idiocy of dumping a sitting PM eight weeks before an election.
News of a possible Democratic Labor Party senator elected in Victoria. Sounds good. Another non Lab/Lib voice. Congratulations!
Kath and Kim is on uppers – she should have conceded. The three Independents who are now her newest BFFs are ex-Nats. Who is she kidding? Just as the Greens renegged on their promise in Tasmania and did not put the Libs in power, the ex-Nats won’t jump into bed with the ALP.
Just back from an election night party — and we spent the trip home explaining the concept of a hung parliament to our 9yo.
This is very hard to watch. Suspect Maxine McKew’s comments are the most honest ones I’ve heard tonight.
Guy Rundle, June 26, 2010 in his aptly named piece Send off the Clowns – the Rudd dumping, and collapsing mainstream politics.
I am happy, Green senator in QLD and Bob Katter has an Ace up his sleeve in Canberra now. Best outcome for us up here in Kennedy I recon. Will have to have a chat to him about this ‘no gays in the village’ Fran, as well as this ‘AGW is still crap’.
Adrian, she mentioned it as one factor. She also mentioned many other factors. Such as the ones I listed. What I’m saying is just to say ‘Kevin could have done it’ is simplistic. If you want to listen to Labor politician’s opinions, we can also pay attention to Stephen Smith saying Labor would have lost almost all its WA seats.
Labor had already moved rapidly to right under Rudd. Dumping climate, tightening up laws against asylum seekers etc and thus disenfranchising the left.
Malcolm Turnbull has just texted Abbott, “I hold the balance of power”.
If Arbib, Bitar, Shorten etc survive this, there is no point to the Labor Party. The previous generation of whatever it takes beaver boys were policy fuckwits but at least they knew how to win elections. This lot’s modus operandi is “whatever it takes to lose elections”.
If they hang around there will be a massive defection of Labor voters to the Greens. People need a political home and the party of Mark Arbib is extremely uninviting. Not all Labor voters will feel this way. Many, maybe most, Labor voters would rather bite their arms off than vote Green. But if Labor is reduced to a party of 30% primary vote they are finished as a party of government.
It is great to see Tuckey finally depart!
One thing about a deal with the independents (whoever ends up doing it) is that its likely many of the promises made by the parties are no longer certain. For example, apparently the independents are supportive of the NBN, so if Abbott makes a deal with them its likely it will survive in some form or another (FTTH in their electorates if I was being cynical).
Either way whoever forms government will likely be forced to break some promises.
btw anyone know if the bookies would have made a lot of money from this election given that neither the ALP or Libs have a majority?
“Just back from an election night party — and we spent the trip home explaining the concept of a hung parliament to our 9yo.”
Chookie, think on the bright side. If Tory Rabbit actually gets up and needs to deal with the totally awesome new Senate you will need to explain “a well hung parliament”.
My thanks to everyone who couldn’t bring themselves to vote Labor. Nice work, you lucky country jackasses, an historic result.
GregA: Some of us who voted Labor last time and believed they were going to make housing and health more affordable have been sorely disappointed.
But hey, they did apologise to the Stolen Generation and sign Kyoto, so all is good…..
“My thanks to everyone who couldn’t bring themselves to vote Labor. Nice work, you lucky country jackasses, an historic result.”
Yep, the greens and labor now have control of the senate and that sure is “historic”.
I must admit, Joe2 @ 131, that the idea of Tony having to get into bed with Bob Brown, so to speak, is a redeeming feature of the prospect of him as PM.
@114:
An interesting outcome certainly. But wondrously amazing and glorious? Hardly – three of the five independents the ALP will need to keep on side to govern are ex-Nationals.
re @119
The ETS failure accounts for a significant swing away from the ALP, not to the coalition, but to the Greens. On migration – the only one of those many things mentioned in your comment – migration is not the cause of higher rents, mortgages and traffic. And “stopping the boats” (or reducing the numbers to three a year) will do sod all to solve those problems. It will do sod all to limit migration numbers either, come to think of it.
ex-nats sure, but there’s good reasons why all of them are ex-nats. Tony Windsor in particular was dis-endorsed by the nats and he is unlikely to go back quietly.
I have just noticed the late-night programming on our TV stations. How the heck did they know?
rage
Shameless
Idiocracy
Enemies of Reason
666 in Bed with the Devil
Then there’s 30 Days in a Wheelchair (gee, I hope it doesn’t take that long to work out who’s the government) But the program that sums it up is something called Temporary Close.
(Listening to Abbott. I feel sick.)
Gummo: I agree “stopping the boats” won’t change things.
But if you believe high net migration doesn’t contribute to unaffordable housing and worse traffic (who would have thought more people = more traffic??), all I can say is you belong on LP – be wrong on so many thing, but at the same time, delude yourself you are smarter than most.
Can’t stop laughing at the result.
Gillard: looked silly while she laughed. Abbott: looks statesmanlike. I’m incredulous that the ALP is trying to represent this as some sort of victory. Unbelievable. Abbott’s comment that Australian political culture doesn’t incorporate the party knocking off a sitting PM goes to the heart of it.
I suspect the Australian people just called it a nil-all draw – having lost faith in the two major parties, and in the electoral system itself. They’ve created three major parties and a proportional representation outcome!
Exactly Ute Man. One might just as well say Channel 9 will give Labor an easy run because Mark Latham is an ex ALP leader.
Look, knifing Rudd was incredibly stupid. Then calling an early election piled the stupid on the stupid.
Abbott’s claiming a mandate without a majority. Be prepared for maximum positions. He has 10 months with the existing Senate.
Ute-man @ 137 – and there’s a precedent for even a national mp to be part of a Labor government. SA had a national party MP as a minister in an ALP government..
“(Listening to Abbott. I feel sick.)”
For my health I had already turned off. This is no victory for Libs or Labs but the greens. No getting away from it this time.
Tyro
Agreed. But this result just seems to confirm that going totally negative and obstructionist a la Abbort is the best path to winning government. So why would anyone put forward a positive vision when negativity brings the rewards?
The election of the first aboriginal member of the house of reps is of course null and void because he is a Lib.
I think it’s still quite likely that this result will end up in a Labor government:
http://larvatusprodeo.net/2010/08/22/the-leaders-speeches-and-what-comes-next-in-federal-election-2010/
At farkin quarter past 12, Minch and Smith are still dancing around the issue that the Greens just got 2/3rds of the swing against the ALP.
It’s an extraordinary result on the face of it but these two bunnies are crapping on about the BER?
The stupid, it burns.
I though it impossible to tel, which party was likely to prove more harmful, and wanted them both to lose, even though I knew that was impossible.
It seems neither party winning might be the next best thing. How perverse!
It’s just possible that we will finally get the government we thought we might get in 2007, as a result of it being not defeated but refuted.
With Wilkie (possibly), Bandt, Oakeshot and Windsor and a green BOP in the senate, maybe we will get a carbon price after all.
Yep Ute Man and @137, Bob Katter is very much his own man too, He’ll even work with the Greens, should Melbourne candidate Adam Brandt get up. There’s common ground……..
Also remember, Independents ready for hung parliament and Hayseed’ amigos could control power.
Fran: Oakeshotte:maybe, Windsor: never.
$135, the acuity dazzles me.
Weird and wonderful indeed. What on earth does the collective entity that is Australia think it is doing?
A Labor Government with the support of the likes of Wilkie, Bandt and Windsor sounds infintely preferrable to anything one might expect from the Coalition. Abbort talking about mandates is simply pissing in the wind.
Razor,
Your comment that “The election of the first aboriginal member of the house of reps is of course null and void because he is a Lib.” is simply appalling.
Indeed disgusting. I will let it speak for itself.
Ute Man @ 151… but remember now its possible it could prise one or two Libs off like occurred in their Senate vote.
Already this victory is being painted in the media as a win for the Liberals, which of course, on a level it is, with 3% TPP swing. But on another level it is a win for the Greens, who achieved over 5% swing off the primary ALP vote. So the only way back for the ALP is to get that primary vote back.
Incidently, I will have to write a report on my day staffing the polling booth at Gladesville … and then scrutinueering.
Wow … what a day.
One thing was the “Latham ballots” Of 164 spoiled ballots of which at least 58 were spoiled intentionally, about 35 were completely blank. Others had crosses in the boxes and one had written:
why is Australia the only country in the world wioth compulsive voting?
I plead estoppel …
Of the ballots that had a primary and/or at least 3-4 other numbers in sequence but were informal, about 85% went to McKew. and a further 10-12% went to Peters (the Green). It seems Peters may wind up qwith 11% overall. Good result. 87% of preferences at this booth (134/154) went to the ALP.
The booth workers for the Libs were an odd bunch. One carzy woman insisted that the Greens were criminals because we “wanted to legalise homosexuality” and that homsexuals were “sick”. My trolling series of responses amused the others (including some of the Libs) but is unprintable here.
The Lib booth captain said she wanted to sink the boats. Hmmm
I had a go at one who was handing out a card that looked like it was from The Greens but was actually from trhe Libs (flattering pic of Bob Brown, green livery, side by side comparison of cliamte actions) suggesting preferencing the Libs. Fine print at the bottom said it was authorised by the Libs but voters thought this was from us. Shocking.
The Libs had a poster up linking “Labor Debt” to NSW prices rises in electricity and water. Shameless lying.
The GetUp people were nice, I toyed with the Climate Septic and overall the day went well.
The Greens aren’t the only winners.
I’d say the mining industry and the media have shown just how relevant and powerful they are.
Tyro – Windsor would only go for a carbon price if it involved a lot of shenanigans with ploughing carbon into the ground and counting the ti-trees and bracken fern on your back paddock you haven’t gouged out with your mates D2 yet.
Then again, the ALP were quite willing to count carbon credits for power stations that promised to limit the farts of their employees so anything goes I suppose.
Over at Tony Blairs blog they’re making the point that if you take the Greens out it was a clear defeat for the ALP. They are amazed she hasn’t conceded yet.
Looking at the Independents I can’t see any of them forming a Coalition with the ALP so they might be right
Ute Man @ 158 – I agree a carbon price is gone now in terms of any sensible outcome in the current parliament. To form government you just need supply and confidence from the independents – not every piece of legislation. It might be poss. for Labor to run a political game if minority government can be formed, e.g. declare reconversion on the road back to Damascus, claim you can’t get it through the lower house (which would be true), be very careful that you build a strong public consensus for it then pull another election. But I cannot see that happening either. So it’s probably dead. On the other hand, it also might be strategically advantageous to Labor to let Abbott try to run the country from minority.
I remain pessimistic either way, that either Labor will make the necessary internal reforms, or that whether they do or not, or form government or not, that Abbott will make all the running and easily win next time out.
I think the problem is that there’s 2 or 3% of the vote that the ALP lost today and will never get back … and this vote is irreconcilable with the 3 or 4% that it lost to the Greens. That if you try to win one block, you’ll lose the other.
Spana @ 154 – quite a few firsts apparently – also have youngest MP, and first muslim MP.
What are they smoking? If you take the Greens vote out most of it comes back (and did come back) to the ALP?! The Libs only got 1 in 5 greens prefs back in most seats.
Tyro Rex wrote:
Last figures I saw: 1.8% went from ALP to Coalition, 3.8% went from ALP to Green. On the face of it, it’s obvious that the lurch to the right was a disaster. Not only did the right leaning voters not care much (they gained none and lost 1.8%), they lost support on the left 2:1.
It’s obvious that they just need to go back to the centre (where, surprise surprise, most people agree that some kind of carbon price or tax or whatever is necessary). This is the 2nd election in a row where Australians wanted something done on climate change and the ALP have now proved that they just don’t get it and likely never will.
I spent election night at a trivia night in a brand new school hall built through BER, raising funds for an outer suburban Brisbane primary school. I have spent every other election of my life watching the results but accepted the invitation to trivia as an alternative to torture.In the foyer near the kitchen someone had placed a small TV and I saw a glimpse of Alexander Downer – I didn’t stop to watch. We called our team ‘Balance of Power’, and we won the first prize – fun, but no consolation for the results we were hearing on our little radio with headphones. Somehow it was an appropriate way to spend the night. The school hall seemed pretty impressive. The teachers at my table (colleagues of my sisters) said everyone was really happy with it. It felt… tragically ironic. Good night all.
Nice little cameo, FB# 156
Davey @ 139:
If you’re a representative sample of most (unlikely, given the sample size), then I’m well entitled to believe that I am, in fact, smarter than most.
Thanks for the LOLZ.
What I learned today is that if the greens got enough votes and won the seats outright,and won enough seats we have our third optional party to vote for. Taking the power completely away from either the liberal or labour. Which will make me think long and hard next election, imagine if the greens had 65 seats the indepen 10 liberals 43 seats and labour 41 maybe then they would all be more humble like the 20 year liberal cantidate, he was not arrogant or disrepectful to any cantidates maybe we have alot to gain from some of the youth of today only time will tell.
When Rudd was sacked I was disgusted, but also horrified at the electoral implications, esp given the parochialism of Qlders. I talked with ALP insiders who said that Rudd’s bullying behaviour was unbearable (& Hawke and Keating were angels?). Fair enough then, a leader who loses the confidence of the party room must go. Problem was that this took the party further to the right. Not much joy there.
But then I was soothed by Possum, LP commentaters and the betting sites and decided to accept a right wing ALP Govt as a lesser evil. I expected a noarrow victory. This is just a train wreck. Gillard has been humiliated, the right wing boys are still in power – they will never accept a move to the left to accommodate the Greens, or try to take back left of centre voters. They will tough it out trying to cobble a deal with ex-Nats and Abbott’s frightening right wing ascendancy with become the dominant paradigm that the ALP will chase.
One bright spot in an other wise grim day was being sent out to a rural booth that returns an 80%plus Nats vote. The weather was glorious, we settled in for a slow day (only 180 on the roll) and enjoyed a civilised discussion with the Nats workers (unlike the nastiness I experienced in the 07 election). One Nat gave me her contact details as she wants to help with the same sex amarriage campaign because of her gay son. As she said – you need our side in on this.
Change does happen, it just drives you crazy at how long it takes, and the many defeats along the way.
Spana @ 155 – I was just getting in first for LPers. Just as Sarah Palin is hated by the femenists because she is on the wrong side of the political spectrum, I have no doubt that many LPers will carry the sentiment that I put out there. I don’t actually believe it. The conservative side doesn’t need quotas and equal opportunity and symbolic gestures – it makes things happen. Bonner and Wyatt – not ALP – conservative. The so called Progressives are all hat and no cattle.
Razor, you are shitting me to tears.
Keep up the good work. We need to hear the truth over and over mate.
Tyro @ 163. I think the point they were making is that most Green votes were portests agains the government therefore if they weren’t in the mix the votes would have gone either straight to the Libs or to third parties who would have supported the Libs.
Very charitable of you there, Razor, putting words in people’s mouths like that.
If Razor is annoying us with his/her glibness then he must be doing something right.
Besides….over the next three years of the Abbott governmnet we’re going to be hearing more of this narrative. From everywhere.
The country has just changed. This is a massive vindication of the Howard regime.
Always a pleasure patrickg, you’re welcome.
Would you prefer I emulate your level of vitriol against anyone you disagree with?
Sooo….. can we email the GG and ask for a DD now?
On a lighter note, if any politician trots out the “I Haz Mandate” line we can all just point and laugh.
Sooo….. can we email the GG and ask for a DD now?
On a lighter note, if any politician trots out the “I Haz Mandate” line we can all just point and laugh.
damn gateway error sry for double post
Getting in early with my prediction: as a Victorian I have a feeling this is going to play out exactly as ’99 under Bracks.
And the tory body nazi doesn’t have shit on the political consensus building of Steve Bracks, i.e. there isn’t going to be an Abbott government, not in a HoR where the ALP+Wilkie equals the same number as the Lib/Nats.
But there’s still plenty of anlysis and spin-deconstructing to come.
(Btw, Raze, you of all people might like to reflect on the fact we now live in a country where a Lt. Colonel Andrew Wilkie is particularly hostile to the leadership of the Liberal Party, and in fact declares his views overlap with the Greens and the Labor Left.)
Nickws – Wilkie was off the reservation when he was a Captain Instructor at RMC Duntroon when I was there as a Cadet, even before he became a public figure. Whatever he does doesn’t suprise me at all. My best mate’s big, and I mean big, brother is Cam Simpkins who ran against Wilkie for the Libs. They are about the same Army Cohort and he probably did it just to stick the knife into Wilkie rather than any passion for the Libs. But, Wilkie looks to have won on preference flows so good luck to him.
Okay Razor @170. Point clarified. Fair enough.