Tony Abbott’s response to the country independents’ request for Treasury costings of his promises [see this previous post for details, and for Julia Gillard's response] is to offer them meetings with the Coalition’s accountancy firm and his shadow ministers.
Peter Martin thinks he’s thrown away his chance at the Prime Ministership.
This is, of course, the only logical outcome of a risible policy performance during the campaign, where back of the envelope polices were the order of the day, where announcements were illogical, sketchy and constantly changing, and where the Coalition did everything possible to avoid any scrutiny of either the costs of their billion dollar a day promises or their dodgy “savings”.
No doubt Tony thought that he could pull the usual trick of claiming that the situation was worse than anticipated, and quickly relegating everything offered to the “non-core” basket, and embarking on a new round of nasty spending cuts.
But now his chickens are coming home to roost.
Elsewhere: Grog’s Gamut.
And, sadly, I think a lot of folks have counted theirs before they’re hatched.
Kim, Can you give me a link to the Abbott statement this evening? Sorry missed th whole thing. Not on the ABC??
So, are we sure the Trio won’t accept this:
“we’re not submitting our costings because there was a leak” ???
OMG, can we handle any more ironies in this election/post-election debacle? Tone’s mantra of ‘responsible government’ doesn’t look like it will last the distance after this ‘two fingered’ salute to the Independents, the nation, and the Treasury.
What a total arseclown. For those who had money on a Phoney Toney meltdown by today, well done!
The story is just not being reported as far as I can see. Part of the continued protect Tony project by the media , I guess.
@2 – Fascinated, sorry I don’t have a link except Peter Martin’s post.
From here:
Tony’s reluctance on this was mentioned on the media tonight 7.30 report I think
Here you go
http://www.abc.net.au/elections/federal/2010/liveblog/
I’m inclined to agree with Old Hack, though I do think it had been woefully misplayed. The more public pressure on Abbott’s wafer-thin policies, the harder it will be for independents to side with him and retain their much touted “integrity”.
Well, media didn’t give two hoots about costings during the campaign, with the exception of Mega G.
Waiting for some trollumnist to report it as Gillard pandering to the Independents, while Abbott is the ‘real’ leader.
Who knows, I’d like to see it make a splash in the news, but right now it’s not very traceable. It could make less of a dint than expected.
Thanks Kim
So what would a reasonable man say/think of Tony’ decision?
John Howard was satisfied with Treasury costings (presumably) ditto Menzies, Fraser etc.
After the Barnaby/Truss gaffes, this is well…icky.
How embarassment.
One does hope the business community washes its hands (and thoroughly).
What next is expendable – the Reserve?
Malcolm – stop smirking for goodness sake.
Following from my earlier comment on the thread about media lessons, this is an abject lesson for Abbott in talking to Independents: he might be able to intimidate the Labor Party and to confuse the press gallery by talking in catchphrases, but regional independents honestly don’t give a fuck about what gets printed in major dailies tomorrow and don’t bother sucking up to journos.
He’s mistaking the spectacle for the actual history of conflict, as Debord would have put it.
Alright, ABC has got it together: http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2010/08/25/2993448.htm
Story up now.
Is this as big a deal as we all think? I’m trying to fathom how it could be anything but a massive blunder for Abbott but nothing’s coming.
I can’t see it as anything but a disaster for Mr Rabbit.
A guy who writes for the AGe and the SMH has written off Abbott – now where have I seen that before?
I wonder why they want Bruce Hawker and equivalent in there?
The other story is that Kevin Rudd’s flown to Canberra today to have a yarn with them. They’re all mates of his, it seems.
Most politicians are hypocrites, especially Tony Abbott, and so he could afford to minimize the cost of his frivolous promises, and then sidestep any analysis of their costs as he bounced into the Lodge – he thought. Now the independents want to have a look at the books. Well, the independents will have to wait until the numbers are re-evaluated, then re-written so they balance. Tony is a broadband expert since he claims that wireless broadband is far superior to a fibre-optic network system, so he could do it tonight by using a spreadsheet program using a computer with an i3-540 Processor running at 3.06GHz with 4GB memory. Right, Tony?
sorry razor, would you care to defend Abbott’s stance?
Be interesting if those three asked for our old PM back. Then perhaps we could call the whole thing a mulligan and go again
Does anyone have a link to the whole press conference? ABC only has a small snippet – i uncharitably want to see the whole thing.
It’s been the lead or second story on the 3AW/ABC radio bulletins down here in Melbourne. Abbott’s sounding like a right arse. I wouldn’t be surprised if it’s on all the Fairfac front pages tomorrow, at least. I’m sure Paul Kelly will find some way to show that weaseling out of this demonstrates Abbott’s leadership and gravitas, but that’s by the by.
“Ms Gillard says the independents have asked that Labor strategist Bruce Hawker help with the talks.
They have also requested a Coalition-aligned person be involved in the negotiations.
I wonder why they want Bruce Hawker and equivalent in there?”
I wondered the same. I thought is was both a dig and a feint.
*Fairfax, guh.
Liam, did the independents just turn a spectacle into a situation?
“Beneath the LNP’s costings — look over there, Tony’s at the beach”
Mr Abbott exposed tonight… And either the Murdoch press goes for him jugular tomorrow, or they expose themselves as frauds.
Fun times.
And the ALP is being forced to do the right thing.
Those antidemocratic hacks in the backrooms of both majors must be s****ing themselves about the reform quesrions!
This might have something to do with Bruce Hawker’s involvement.
Kim@18: Hawker was on the 7.30 report tonight talking about the inclusion of people from outside parliament being included in cabinet. Apparently Rob Oakeshott heard Hawker giving a paper on this topic and was impressed. This is probably the reason for the invitation.
I dunno; have they asked for “a nice Chianti” as well? Or was Bob Katter carrying a sharpened stake in his hand luggage?
The way the coaliting used the whole “costing” report by WHK is deceptive to say the least. I may be wrong, but from reading the report it appears:
- That it is a “review” report. I’m 90% sure auditors are legally unable to issue audit reports on prospective information (ie budgets). This is because audit reports are supposed to be for historical financial information. To give some perspective, and audit report giving “reasonable” assurance under the new auditing “clarity” (that’s the name they gave them – no it’s not any clearer than the old ones)standards means the auditors gives reasonable assurance what is presented is materially correct. A review report gives “limited” assurance. The different accounting firms have their different ways of working out what “reasonable” and “limited” actually means.
- Joe Hockey was wrong to say that it was an “audit”. It wasn’t. It’s a review. They fall under different auditing standards.
- A review report means a lot less work for the auditors than an audit report. The requirements are much less stringent.
- It appears to state in the review report that WHK has relied on the assumptions given to them by the coalition, without testing them. What this appears to say is that WHK added the number based on the assumptions that were given, and said they appeared to be materially correct. To my mind, it appears as if they are saying they’ve added the numbers up in the document and they add up to the totals presented and as such they are happy that it is materially correct.
Just my observations, you can take it or leave it. I used the copy of the costings Peter Martin posted on his blog to base my observations.
Yes, John D.
And they said Mr Hawker had been involved in three minority ALP Govts in the past…
of which the Trio would be aware….
All the indications appear to be the independents favouring Labor..
I wouldn’t be making any assumptions as there have been many twists and turns to date and maybe more to come.
So of these independents have to concern themselves with putting Labor into power, especially should Labor become on the nose during their term (via a toxic MSM).
Some of these independents would be sacrificing some votes by supporting Labor and sacrificing a whole lot more if Labor don’t do well. With a world down turn just about guaranteed Australia’s economy wont be as near rosy and optimistic as it is now.
I can guarantee the MSM will ensure that the independents get lumped with Labor and given a cause some bad things or other.
I gather they are quite friendly with Rudd (what an autocrat hey) and he has been used to help persuade them.
In the end when it comes to pollies it is most often about the next election and their skin.
Maybe these independents are trying to create a rationale for their choosing Labor, for the benefit of their own constituents. But I can say all such things will be forgotten if things go sour with Labor.
I would prefer another election, but I guess that is last on the list.
Alister @9: Very interesting one that fits in with Rob Oakeshotts interest in parliamentary reform. The section on what Rann has done with minority government starting pp9 is very relevant to our current situation.
Could it be a deliberate strategy by the indies? Knowing that Tone would fumble when asked for actual numbers and you know, detail, they can now justifiably throw their weight behind the incumbent government.
I think the guy is genuinely conflicted.
If he doesn’t get his chance now, if Gillard is as disciplined as I think she’ll be over the next three years, Abbott is on a hiding to nothing. A commitment to play grown-up politics goes against Abbott’s combative, policy-is-for-wimps nature. He’ll be leader of a Liberal Party that can smell power but can’t grab it. By late 2012 he’ll be in the same position Beazley was in toward the end of ’06, and Turnbull was at the end of ’09: the death zone.
The dog-in-the-manger strategy, if there is one, comes from Abetz and Minchin. These master strategists can bring down Labor governments that are dead on their feet (SA Labor ’92, Keating ’96), but even poor Labor governments can do these guys if they show any fight at all (SA and Tas Labor last year, and throw in Rudd-Gillard if you like). This is surely the point where the Liberal Party calls time and shunts these jokers aside. Surely.
What’s the bet we find out ‘the dog ate his policies’
Mr Hockey: “The dog ate my homework.”
Mr Robb: “When did you ever do any homework, Joe?”
Mr Rabbit: “Boys, boys! Now where are those costings?”
Mr Hockey: “The modellers ate my homework!!”
Mr Robb: “You wouldn’t know a modeller from a super model.”
Mr Rabbit: “Boys, boys! We didn’t have a policy on super. What ARE you two squabbling about?”
Mr Hockey: “Have you seen this graph? It looks like a Hockey stick if you turn it upside down….”
Mr Robb: “It’s not just Barnaby who gets us into messes, Tony.”
Mr Rabbit: “Don’t mention the Senator.”
Mr Hockey: “At least I know there’s a difference between a million and a billion.”
Mr Robb: “That’s doubtful.”
Mr Rabbit: “Boys, boys! We have to come up with some figures, quick smart!”
Mr Hockey: “Who are you calling ‘smart’?”
Alex Downer: “Here I Am!”
exeunt
Peter Martin has some good stuff at http://petermartin.blogspot.com/
OOPS right blog wrong post!
The indies must persevere with the process, no matter how fruitless it may seem. If they choose Labor later (as I think they will), they have to justify their decision to their electorate. It will come down to what the parties were offering. From Gillard – nice seven point plan leading to lots of goodies – all of them costed. From Abbott: uncosted grab-bag of whatever he was thinking of at the time. It will be useful pointing this out the next time Windsor or Katter gets in an argument with a journalist.
Lenore Taylor outlines some background in the SMH. Link is also on Peter Martin’s blog.
Katter thinks this is Abbott’s Plan B. That is, he’s trying to get another election and that it won’t work. Katter absolultely scathing about Abbott on ‘Lateline’ and finally stuff out of a press conference that shows how hopeless Abbott is.
Katter was extremely scathing about this on Lateline. Lateline, to its credit, also showed Abbott walking out of the press conference to avoid further questions.
Crossed, Fine! I see the word “scathing” occurred to both of us!
My initial best guess was that the three amigos would go with Tones to sideline Wilkie and the Green in order to maximise their own leverage.
This development gives credibility to the notion that Tones is running dead and only wants power on his own terms. He’s rather sit and snipe than cooperate.
Personality-wise this fits the authoritarian personality type.
OTOH it could be that he’s just in a jam, knowing that his costings are phony.
Thomas Paine @ 33, Rudd’s personality is quite enigmatic IMHO and doesn’t fit the regular typology.
Elsewhere: Grog’s Gamut.
Scathing – ‘word of the day’, Kim.
@29, 30 – Thanks for the info on Hawker, and the link to his paper.
Fine and Kim, I didn’t see Lateline, but Katter could be right.
Interesting developments.
Abbott’s motivations are complex. On the one hand he realises that subjecting his dodgy costings to Treasury scrutiny would most likely damage his credibility in the eyes of the independents even more than the refusal to hand them over. On the other, he probably thinks that taking government under current circumstances is a poisoned chalice. Not only would he have to work with up to 5 independents with quite different political philosophies and no certainty as to how each will react to future policy initiatives, but will have to find a way through a joint ALP/Green legislative wall when the new Senate is formed next year.
Perhaps Labor will be able to make minority government work, but I don’t think it is going to be easy.
I’m not sure if easy would be good.
Haha!
News update on Channel Seven just now – I’m watching Lord of the Rings – and Abbott was shown “balking” at giving his policies to Treasury – the one grab he got was “it is very difficult for public servants to understand Coalition policy”. Very difficult for anyone trying to make sense of it, I’d say!
Easy was when they fell asleep at the wheel, when the opposition was at its lowest ebb, and became most concerned with winning the media cycle, etc. Be good to have a range of things to keep them on their toes!
The leak that the coalition said came from treasury about their policy costings, that they then used as an excuse not to hand in anything further, was more than likely all their own work.
Abbott: “It is very difficult for the public service to understand Coalition policy with the same depth as government policy.”
Grog: “Abbott not wanting the Treasury to go through his costings at his point is a bit like me saying the ATO won’t be able to understand my tax return with the same depth as does my private accountant, so just trust me on what I say I am due as a refund.”
By easy I mean workable. There is some philosphical overlap between the independents and the ALP platform, but it is by no means complete. It is also unclear how they will react to future policy initiatives that aren’t current ALP policies as the government reacts to new events. If the ALP ends up on 72 seats, just finding a way to satisfy 4 of Wilkie, Bandt, Katter, Oakeshott and Windsor is going to be complicated.
What’s the betting they will wheel out the dodgy brothers, Rob and Hookey, to try and clean up the mess in the morning?
That’s true, LO, but if it leads to a more deliberative policy process, surely it’s not a bad thing.
The commitment to debate and vote on private members’ bills, if made, is surely going to shake things up too. Be interesting when Bandt introduces The Greens’ bill on same sex marriage, or Katter presents one on concentration in retail.
Btw, latest word on Brisbane is ALP closing to 400 behind LNP, getting 56% of postals, so that’s looking better.
I mean not a bad thing for the country, agreeing it’s going to be tricky for the ALP. But I think the ALP desperately needs to be prodded away from politics as usual.
I don’t think governing a nation is meant to be easy.
Abbott’s whole demeanour at the presser was dreadful. He is a terrible liar – he’s not bad at the meaningless ramble but he does this weird tight jaw with squint thing when lying. He was doing it a lot while attempting to rationalise not allowing the very public servants he expects to work with any access to his costings. He doesn’t seem to have quite understood that he’s working in a new paradigm.
Turnbull has just tweeted ” yes indeed some anxious days ahead” oh yes indeedie oh yes indeedie….
Let me put this another way. Much has been made of the point here and elswhere of how badly we have been served by the two party system and the potential virtuies of a minority government forced to broker more compromises and be more attuned to community concerns. But there are downsides as well. If relations between the government and a sub-set of the independents deteriorate, we could quickly end up with a kind of policy paralysis just as bad as what we have experienced over the past few years. And think about the potential implications of by-elections in government held seats. Also, given the views on some aspects of social policy of some of the independents I am more than a little surprised at just how sanguine some commentators on LP are about the prospect of the ALP relying on them to hold up their government.
@63 – All that’s true, but the only alternative is Labor going into opposition, and an Abbott government. I really can’t see any likelihood of another election. I think anyone seen to precipitate one would be slaughtered. If you wanted to see the voters with the baseball bats phenomenon in its starkest form, sending us back to the polls in short order (or even within a year or two), would do it I think.
It’s in Labor’s interest to try and make it work, I think.
Lord only knows what they’d do to themselves in opposition, too.
LL tonight was some of the best political TV of the campaign (yes, it continues!).
Loved Tony meeting the 3 rural independents and telling them “I love the bush”.
Fark!
Put him in a boxing match with the Independents and I’m sure he’d win, but a negotiation? – I don’t think he knows how.
Fine, the sea air at St Kilda is making you cynical.
When I saw Toxic Tony’s performance on TV I was depressed, has the same shades of arrogance and born to rule exhibited by Malcolm Fraser when he wrestled government from the elected party.
I know that americans submit their costings to an ndependent review panel. They have to because they gutted their public service. We still have a strong and independent Treasury. As Ross Gittins has remarked time and time again, external consultants do not give frank and independent advise, they report back what the person who can commission their next piece of work wants to hear.
In short I do not trust costings glanced at by KPMG, we saw how they gave one set of advise to the government on the mining tax after 3 months of research and came up with different results for the mining council after a week of massaging the models with a fantastical set of assumptions cf Peter Martin or John Quiggin
Hawker was on the 7:30 report and spoke about how a minority government worked well in NSW some time ago.
Abbott either has something to hide re his election promises costings or is paranoid about Treasury, or both. His refusal to play ball won’t help his negotiations.
I think some of his bully tactics and persona are being flushed out. He probably realises he can’t share power or really do things differently (e.g. be nice), so he may be shaping up for opposition and lots of old style grenade throwing.
But its early days. We are only seeing opening positions.
Pity the Greens have dealt themselves out so early.
I think another election within 2 years is inevitable. The minority government will just prove too fragile in my opinion. And if it does last the three years, it will most likely be because very little of substance is done.
I do agree that Labor has a lot to lose from going into opposition though…Being in government will at least hold the recriminations in partial check…
Geez it’s so good to see. You can imagine the ALP and Libs playing the ‘threat’ to insist the other have their promises costed by Treasury like a tennis match. Play it for all the theatre they could extract, with neither side having any intention of ever actually doing it–God forbid. And now they’re snookered! TFC!
I’m loving these Independents. But I’m a bit disappointed that Tone has disqualified himself so early on. Oh well. Looks like Gulia it is, maybe with Turnbull in her Cabinet as token Tory. I think Oakshot wants something a little more interesting than a minority ALP govt, I know I do. I want fast trains too.
Im am LOVING the 3 Indies for serving Hockey’s costings BS back to the Libs on a plate.
Worth the price of entry for that alone. Tremendous work.
Tony, July: “I know some Chicks!”
Tony, August: “I know some Hicks!”
LO @ 63 – anything is better than the tripe Labor have been dishing up as policy – such as the Continue Polluting Regardless Scheme – and the way they have played it to date. They need all the help they can get.
Oakeshott should get Climate Change and Wong should go to the back benches.
On minority governments, I’d make one other point. We have to be careful about extrapolating the experience of state minority governments to the federal arena. Federal parliaments simply consider a much wider range and more complicated set of issues than state parliaments. And Hawker may be of the opinion that the minority government in NSW worked effectively, but in my view that is much more true in a political than in a policy sense.
“Costings? We won’t be beaten on costings!”
“If they choose Labor later (as I think they will), they have to justify their decision to their electorate.”
Galaxy says their electorates want them to choose the Coalition.
http://www.couriermail.com.au/news/national/poll-says-independents-should-back-tony-abbott/story-fn5z3z83-1225910114543
Tony Abbott cutting short the press conference on his costings was the highlight of the whole election. Epic fail. I wonder just how much self flagellation was required for him to hold his tongue for 6 weeks but evidently the celice just hit the scrote.
Galaxy says their electorates want them to choose the Coalition.
I don’t buy this at all.
The majority of their electorates has voted for them – independents, not partisan. Just because more of the rest of the voters happen to have voted conservative says nothing about the total makeup of those electorates. You have to know how the people who voted for the indies would’ve voted without each of those indie MPs being there.
Katter’s electorate has gone to Labor in the past. Those who elected Windsor and Oakeshot elected them because of who they are and what they believe in, and if that brings them to choose Labor, so be it.
(Anyway. What would I know. Mainly that was a mathematical argument – Venn diagrams and such.)
(That’s how you saw it, wasn’t it?)
I’m with Peter Hollo. Poll driven politics is part of the problem and one the major reasons Labor blew what should have been a fairly straightforward campaign.
They led to the demise of Rudd, and were responsible for a lot of the policies targeted at marginal seats – such as two state railway lines.
Uteman @ 76 LOL. The hairshirt got him through the campaign but its getting itchy now.
LO @ 68 – Gillard was talking about setting a date for the next election as part of the agreement with the independents. So the government may not have much room to call an early election without losing some credibility.
I’d agree that we’re unlikely to see any controversial legislation get through – the Henry report would probably be shelved for quite a while. And the downside to the independents having control is I can see Australia becoming a lot more protectionist.
Quite right Peter. And it is in any event early days. In 2007 most wanted an ALP government. Now they aren’t so sure.
Abbott has just dodged scrutiny on costings — again — and in circumstances where it couldn’t hurt him — unless he has lied. Those polled hadn’t heard that.
Also, they want most of the things that only the ALP is offering, as does most of the country. In so far as these Indies are deciding not merely the best thing for their electorates, but the government, the question is a broader one. Unless the Libs get to 73 without Crook, the question is moot anyway because the three wouldn’t have the numbers and that would hand all the leverage to Crook. That wouldn’t help Lyne or New England or Kennedy or the country as a whole.
Abbott staring down at the table, as The Three listened, intoning:
“And I just love the bush and whenever I’m there, it feels great.”
Julie Bishop, alongside, staring straight into the middle distance. Smile fixed.
Priceless.
(on Lateline)
Joe2: Quite a few people are beginning to suspect that the libs did the Treasury leak.
I watched TAbbott exit the press conference tonight – his body language was that of a man who had just run a real marathon he hadn’t trained for. I watched him speak (without the sound)and then almost stagger through the door.
Breathe deeply everyone.
LOL, get a load of how Shanners is trying to spin this! Talk about defending the indefensible!
Katter on Lateline:
Phil Coorey mentions the Abbott story in the SMH here though not in as much detail and without those telling visuals.
Bright eyes,
burning like fire.
Bright eyes,
how can you close and fail?
How can the light that burned so brightly
Suddenly burn so pale?
Bright eyes.
Goodbye, Mr Rabbit.
@84
Shorter Dennis: business as usual please.
Treasury not competent to properly cost Coalition policies? WTF!!! Then who was costing them for 11+ years? Only the most rabid of Smuggles’ cheerleaders would be able to swallow that without gagging. Wonder how the usual suspects will spin it?
And their policies will have to be costed by Treasury if they get the nod.
Brian @47, I’d say it’s a combination of both, but I’m willing to bet there’s a fair bit of BO in the Coalition rooms at the moment.
Delusional tripe from The Aust:
Abbott..”the most successful opposition leader in Australia’s history would be forced to face votes…”
bwaaahaaahahahahaaaaaa!
We know Mr Rabbit’s game is up, he’s self-flagellating and biting his tongue and about to punch Julie Bishop, just coz she’s the closest.
But Dennis Shanahan is just given up, he’s not even trying.
These independents deserve a fucking statue! Love it!
One of the oddest things about the election was the lack of impact of sound endorsements for labor from economics experts. Truth of the thing is the electorate has not warmed to labor’s timidity or Abbott’s nasty bluster.
But it is Abbott who has drawn attention to himself this time, once again the attitude thing and you have to hope the public is using this time to think about things, for once.
“Just because more of the rest of the voters happen to have voted conservative says nothing about the total makeup of those electorates. You have to know how the people who voted for the indies would’ve voted without each of those indie MPs being there.”
Peter, I think that’s the point of the poll (taken after the election) – having voted the independents in, who would the voters like them to support? The poll suggests, strongly, that the voters in those electorates want them to support Abbott.
Fixed that for you.
He should stand up to these rediculous clown independents, its not up to them to pass judgements on policies or costings, either support a government for supply or not, get the numbers or not. Hopefully we get another election based on primary voting only to get a true reflection of the Australian electorate.
By the way, Tony Windsor has also expressed strong scepticism about the $42 billion cost of the proposed NBN. Sounds like he suspects it was a figure plucked out of the air.
Steve F, Swan reckons the Tones’ projected $11 billion budget surplus is really a deficit of $5 billion. There is a real issue here.
And yes, as Ambi says, Windsor says he wants to track down the $43bn figure for the NBN. He suspects it’s fictitious.
There is no way the three are going anywhere until this is sorted out.
@93, tigtog, let’s not forget either that he people have to be home when the pollsters call – apparently they only get one response from six phone calls. Heavily biased towards older people there too I’d suggest.
The youngsters who do have a landline would be using it for dialup internet, anyway.
Steve Frankes #94:
I might be up for that if we can retrospectively award Labor all the Federal and State elections since WWII which Coalition governments won through DLP preferences, the Liberal and Country/National Parties preferencing each other in three-cornered contests, or some combination thereof – and if we can retrospectively award Al Gore the US presidency in 2000.
Edmund Burke, 1774.
tigtog and Rebekka, that applies to all polls, right? Or was this one somehow different?
Just because we don’t like what the poll says doesn’t mean we should ignore it. It’s also supported by the primary vote:
So – should they A) hold out for the best deal (most pork) for their particular electorate, or B) make a judgment on what course of action is in the best interests of the nation as a whole (or in the best interests of democracy or whatever), or C) bow to the preferences of the people who voted for them?
Or D) a mixture of some/all of the above?
Ambigulous @95, Tony Windsor might have read this article. $43 billion sounds a bit low to me too for such a vast project. It’s still worth doing, though.
Oh bloody hell, Abbott has now apologised to Wilkie for his treatment by the Howard Government. How bloody transparent is that, coming at such a time. If he’d done it years ago then perhaps but now it’s just a transparent, obvious sham. Abbott has NO SHAME. This is absolutely cringeworthy.
Jarrah, it does apply to all phone polls and is one very good reason to treat them all with caution.
As to your arguments about the Primary vote, that doesn’t fly: how people vote in the presence of a popular local Independent is not how they would vote in the absence of such a candidate. Indeed, the opposing candidates offered by the Nats and Labor aren’t the same candidates that they would run in the absence of a popular local Independent. Those figures are irrelevant.
As to what they should do: of course, the candidates have to weigh up all of A/B/C, and each candidate will put their own weights on each factor. They certainly shouldn’t be listening to external pundits and pollsters over the voice of the people they already know in their own electorate.
Pollster weight their samples to reflect the demographics of the population they’re surveying to make sure they’re getting a representative sample. (well, the good ones do)
The potential problem is if mobile-only voters differ significantly from their landline-using demographic brethern. (eg does the population of mobile-only 18-24 year olds have different preferences to the population of 18-24 year olds with landlines)
d
The ABC is reporting http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2010/08/26/2993775.htm?section=justin
Godwin Grech where are you?
moderator can I do that again
The ABC is reporting Abbott demands head of Treasury mole
Godwin Grech where are you?
Yep, what tigtog said.
Aah @ 100, so your point is that Providence should decide who gets to be the government? The GG will be relieved.
Why do people have this ridiculous uncritical admiration for the ideas of people who lived in another era and another world? It’s like the Republicans who think any question can be resolved by asking what the Founding Fathers would do. Still I suppose it’s a step up from creationism, just.
CarlitosM
When I saw him on Channel 9 news this morning, the immediate impression I got was that he was mouth-breathing. It makes him look a bit like a Neanderthal. His walking has changed too. It looks like he’s at the end of a marathon and he’s out of puff. He has that “old man” shuffle going on as well, though he may have picked this up from spending too much time with Ratty. Ratty had that mouth-breathing thing going as well when he was under too much pressure.
Ratty and Rabbit. Heh.
I still keep thinking about Watership Down. In the end, the rabbit died.
So Wilkie wants to get something happening with Nick X nationally the anti-pokie front. You beauty. This really is shaping up well.
Helen @ 103. Agreed, but that’s politics. I beat Abbott to it anyway. I apologised to Wilkie on behalf of Howard in 2004.
Nick X is sounding good, he and the other independents are a breath of fresh air and look like they can drive the positive change to our current autocratic government & politics.
The NBN was one of Labor’s few positive stories for the campaign. Given it was part of the campaign, the $43b would bear closer scrutiny. We don’t need fibre to every metro home in any case – the rural need is much more compelling.
Abbott’s grovelling to Wilkie is utterly delicious.
And futile, if my reading of Wilkie is correct.
113 etc, its shameful what some people will do to get elected.
The political version of the casting couch and look who has ended up having the least pride.
Why do people have this ridiculous uncritical admiration for the ideas of people who lived in another era and another world?
Ken: selective quotation does not imply “ridiculous uncritical admiration”.
Mmmm that’s debatable @ 115 – contributing a direct quote without commentary as if it has some kind of extraordinary self-evident merit certainly suggests uncritical something.
100 is actually a good quote that highlights the better “organic” side of Burke, and a comment relevant as to our politics.
Just imagine if Marx had adopted the same attitude to his heritage, as some here.
Don’t smash the resources simply because you don’t understand them
Ken Lovell @ 109,
As a historian I chokes to death at your comment. I could write a long screed on the uses of history, but instead I’ll just recommend you read E. H. Carr, Collingwood and Croce for starters.
http://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/federal-election/gentler-abbott-reverts-to-type-in-winnertakesall-gambit-20100826-13tai.html
Helen @ 103,
Maybe Mr. Rabbit will drag Ratty out of hiding and get him to swear on a stack of bibles that he didn’t really mean to be a nasty old man? If I was Wilkie I wouldn’t believe it.
“Those figures are irrelevant.”
tigtog, I’m not sure they are. They don’t illustrate an exact counterfactual, but I think you’re stretching things to claim they can tell us nothing at all. Have you made that same argument about Labor or the Greens when they came second? I’m sceptical. It seems to place too much weight on personalities rather than parties, which seems dubious. When people are asked who they are going to vote for, they mostly tend to nominate parties or leaders, not members (unless the members don’t have a party, or the member is particularly well known).
But no matter. The indies will do what they do.
Mmmm that’s debatable @ 115 – contributing a direct quote without commentary as if it has some kind of extraordinary self-evident merit certainly suggests uncritical something.
Sometimes I prefer to say less rather than more, Ken, or quote without explanation. (Although the selective bolding may hint to my intent.) I thought unnecessary explanations would be gratuitous, especially on LP.
This thread discusses the opinion polls in independent electorate: “Who should your member go for? Abbott or Gillard?” My view is that in this case in particular, it is the elected member who should decide, and that the polls are just piss and wind. Until the next election, they make the call.
@103, hypocrisy in the extreme, seeing Smuggles enthusiastically donned the steel caps to partake of the kicking. And as you say a few years too late to be trudging along the road to Damascus.
Whilst Gillard will do anything for power perhaps Abbott has a line he will not cross. Maybe he does not care for power at all costs. Power is not everything but try telling that to anyone in the ALP.
You turning into quite the satirist, Spana. Behold the noble and principled Abbott. Gotta love that.
The cost in this case being that he has to show some actual people skills and a willingness to negotiate with people he might disagree with. Something that the Rat of Steel’s mentorship and tutelage hasn’t taught him.
The only line he wont cross is getting rid of himself.
@124, what do you call the craven “apology” to Wilkie for the Rodent government’s sustained and disgraceful persecution of him in which persecution Smuggles was a very enthusiastic participant?
He’s had an epiphany, or there’s nothing the lying toerag won’t do to gain power? Hint: epiphany’s not an option.
Sure. Maybe that was why Oakes referred to him as weathervane.
I am digging into ur costins Larvatus Prodeo…
Maybe he knows that the Prime Ministership is a job that requires a grown up to do it, Spana. If he does not care for government, why is he leader of the Liberal Party?
Geez Spana @ 124, I hope that was a lame attempt at satire.
I think not adrian.
I think spana really believes it.
Against all the evidence that Abbott has realised that in order to get power now he must compromise and share some small part of that power with the independents.
Abbott wants as much power as he can get and he doesn’t want to share it with anyone.
He wants a second election as soon as possible so he can get his chance at complete power.
Power is not everything but try telling that to Tony Abbott.
Actually, the idea that Labor is the party of unprincipled roughnecks while the Liberals are the party of genteel society is still prevalent out there.
Of course the people who believe that tend not to self-identify as working class martyrs.
Abbott is wagering that the Independents will prefer to accept his ‘costings’ blind rather than commit political suicide by supporting the ALP. Their electorates will riot…
…which is why the Independents are well served to stew Tony slowly over costings and whatever else they can think of to try and get the pennies to drop in their electors minds that Abbott was chocka full or malarkey in the election campaign…
…but I don’t think it will work. For most Australians, politics is like footy. You follow your team no matter what.
So the result will be that the Independents support Gillard, which is what they want to do, and in three years they will be de-elected as treasonous Commies and fratenisers of (Green) freaks.
Katter, Oaky and Windsor: martyrs for the cause. Arbib and Bitar may yet save their jobs and plague the nation for another three years because of them.
That’s it, in a nutshell. Trouble is, to get what he wants, he has to concede what he doesn’t want.
Gummo Trotsky, what might it be that Mr Abbott doesn’t want?
Responsibility?