You may have heard about the Carrington event or the great solar storm of 1859.
Is this something we should worry about rather than the results of an election?
Part of the problem here is that it’s difficult to pin down the dates of anything on the internet. The first link above, from NASA, dates from May 2008 according to the url. The third link, my post from May 2009, was based on a New Scientist article which was based on a NASA report of January 2009. It was scary, but the NS article is now behind the paywall.
Here’s a blog post from 2009 which is based on the same NASA report. It’s scary:
When a large solar flare occurs the geomagnetic currents hit the earth and the power lines pick them up. This is called geomagnetically induced currents (GIC). A major solar storm can overwhelm the system. The solar storm of 1989 that blacked out Quebec took only 90 seconds from the initial event to a complete blackout. This causes a cascading affect that if severe enough can cascade beyond the affecting power company. Our power grid is so interconnected today, that a failure in one area can cascade to numerous other areas quickly.A current report by the NAS warns that if a similar event occurred today, it could cause $1 to $2 trillion dollars in damage to the power systems, technological infrastructure and economy and take between four to ten years for a complete recovery. Some areas could be without power for years. Its not just the lights, but electricity controls everything from the water supply, phone service, banking and finance, internet and fuel pipelines to name a few. According to the NAS report, the damage to the US economy in the first year alone would be at least $2 trillion.
But the New Scientist article was even scarier. This is what I said:
The article then cheerfully tells us that transformers could not be easily replaced because we don’t have stacks of them in store and they normally take a year or more to make.
The result?
A year later and millions of Americans are dead and the nation’s infrastructure lies in tatters. The World Bank declares America a developing nation. Europe, Scandinavia, China and Japan are also struggling to recover from the same fateful event – a violent storm, 150 million kilometres away on the surface of the sun.
Now Dr Phil Wilkinson, Assistant Director of the Bureau of Meteorology’s Ionospheric Prediction Service tells us we worry too much (thanks for the head-up, John D). I’m not convinced. Does he mean that the big one is a very rare event? Is he saying that if it comes it will be not until the solar cycle reached its maximum and by then they’ll have everything sorted?
Can you really protect a power grid?
If it’s “just a regional thing” what if the region is Europe, or the NE of the US, or NE Asia?
Is there a scientist in the house who can sort this out for us?
Anyway, I thought you needed something to take your mind away from elections for a bit.
Update: Huggybunny @ 27 provides a link to a NASA science news item of January 2009.
In a comment @ 35 I summarise why I think there is still a problem.
Nick @ 37 provides a link to an act passed by the US Congress on June 9, 2010 which initiates measures to address the situation. Which suggests that it needs addressing.
Fools!!!!
Solar Power will be the death of us all!!!!
Excellent!
Gitcha tinned beans and head for the hills!
Jeez, Brian, you really know how to cheer a person up.
Don’t worry about it – nothing you can do about it anyway. The language of the article you link to is pretty hysterical, not science-like at all.
I’ll be looking at all those the great auroras – but I’ll make sure the triffids are locked up first
It only proves that Homo Sapien is the mouse that roars in this universe.
What Diogenes said.
Fibre optic communications are less susceptible to solar storms, I believe. Electrical currents can’t be inducted in glass, unlike copper. That doesn’t make fibre optic comms immune to sunspots, as they still rely on some sort of half functioning grid – just less vulnerable.
The ultimate stimulation package.
God is a keynesian.
From memory of what the NS article said, the real problem is that we don’t have spare grid transformers lying around and a new one take about a year to make.
And guess what, you need electricity to make them, not to mention workers who are fed, watered and have their bodily waste disposed of.
We should understand the exact mechanism and the actual multiplier effect of solar storms.
Firstly the “storm” induces a large direct current into the high voltage transmission lines, this dc current saturates the transformer/s at both ends of the line. A saturated transformer is no longer a transformer at all it simply gets exploded by the vast amount of energy that is dumped into its windings. In effect the transmission system totally destroys itself. Even the actual generators could be cactus.
Underground Dc links will probably still work but there will be nothing left for them to link to.
There may be things that we can do to protect transformers from damage but I know of no work on this.
The storms could take out entire power lines as well. I suspect also that cities with an underground LV system would find that part of the network OK. However if the storm/s are severe enough they would also take out the HV distribution system.BTW if you have a rooftop PV system, the inverter will go ta ta’s and in any event it cannot work if the grid is missing.
The actual fibre optic NBN will be fine but the server farms will be without power.
There will be no mobile phone system, no traffic lights, no TV, no nuffink. No Beer.
Huggy
Thanks for putting the possibility of Abbott as prime minister in context Brian. My understanding of the impact of Carrington events is:
1. Power grids can be saved if they are shut down before the magnetic storm arrives. So we can be protected if warning systems work and the warnings are acted upon. We already have warning systems that will give us enough notice.
2. The Carrington events generate large DC voltages in extended power grids. This is a particular problem for AC power grids because the resistance of the transformers increases with AC frequency. They have practically no resistance for DC power so there will be a surge of current through the coils that destroys the transformer.
3. We are talking seriously about using very high voltage DC grids for long haul power transmission. Would expect these grids to be a lot less vulnerable because they will be deigned to handle high DC voltages. Would need comments from experts to be sure.
4. Other things such as satellites and various other bits of electrical circuits may also be vulnerable.
Part of the problem is that our civilization has used strategies such as globalization and “just in time” to improve efficiencies. We have also used capitalism as a driving force so decisions tend to be based on maximizing relatively short term outcomes rather than spending money to protect us from a mega disaster that may only happen once in a hundred yrs.
Huggy: Your comments were made while I was writing mine.
Part of the problem with high voltage circuits is that they are very hard to switch off because of arcing. So all that would happen if a fuse blows on overload is that an arc would form and the current would continue to flow. This is not an issue if the circuit is shut down before the power surge unless the voltage is high enough to jump the air gap. Hence the importance of warning systems. Any high voltage power systems out there may be able to comment on the ability of modern protection systems to break high voltage arcs fast enough to protect a transformer.
Not sure that putting lines underground will make much difference since magnetic flux will penetrate through most soils.
Putting
John D: “Any high voltage power systems out there may be able to comment on ….”
Now that’s a big ask!
John D,
A dc arc is very difficult to suppress as there is no natural zero as there is with AC.
Basically the protection systems that are used on transformers today will not protect against a massive dc current
Under-grounding itself does not confer much protection, as you point out. However underground and Arial Bundled Cables are close together and would not couple so strongly to the field generated by the storm.
On the question of warning, I understand we would get about 2 hours.
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2010/08/27/2995751.htm?section=justin
Some scepticism here
Like I can really see any-one acting on the warning by closing down , say the entire Australian transmission system, creating a system black , etc.
No way
Huggy
At least hospitals etc might be able to shut off their own backup systems though Huggy – better than nothing maybe.
I’d say you’re right though. No government would have the courage to risk causing massive chaos (or even mild inconvenience) on the mere possibility of catastrophe. Witness AGW.
I think this is a really scarey scenario,worse still nothing from Parliaments!The belief the Southern parts of the Globe wont be affected as much,I read somewhere, is solely dependent on weather patterns during event.This is highly political and 2012 2013 are simply the ball park time wise.The prediction maybe wrong about event by being earlier…humanity isn’t exactly qualified to know exactly what the sun is doing.I have been thinking about lead plating on wooden structures,Hilsch Vortex tubes, magnetising star pickets and even storage of electricity via woollen Bales[ woolen bales hold a static charge that will knock people off their feet].Done the basic research.No Go so far.If you cannot turn grids off then the next best thing,I guess is grid storage.I doubt AUSTRALIA really has early warning technology.Australia must, anyway, find grid electric storage a priority.Arcing isn’t a problem if you know it can be a problem.Perhaps the real answer is to have weeks of practice,and months of that closer to the event horizon of very little or no electrical use.Mechanical methods by spring systems should become the concerned priority to scan.Even Leonardo Da Vinci has had people work on his ideas.To trains and buses trucks on rail if all goes down hill.Suggest also become Men’s Shed members.Normal industry will be kaput.Visited a Indian Hemp site last night.Jack Thompson doing a voice over on what you can do with that plant industrially.Fibres maybe useful in protecting transformers.Strawbales have been shown to protect from radiation potential.Fibres of plants can have stuff induced into them which may also be protective..Time to pull the finger out and demand basic research now.On a personal level good luck everyone if the event happens..and don’t brush me off as an idiot.
FDB,
Many hospitals, Business central offices etc have diesel based independent generation facilities that are designed to run through short term emergencies. Most of these would probably work OK. Eventually there would be no more fuel.
What the possibility of such an event and AGW demonstrates is the philosophical attitude that we are the centre of “creation” and do not need to worry.
Very few people understand that we as a society and a species that exploits energy resources are very far from equilibrium. We also live in a world where one or more of various possible events could destroy our “civilisation”.
Not suggesting that we cower in caves, but perhaps just a little less hubris would be appropriate. Some planning for the various “disaster” scenarios might be a really good idea.
Could we really Imagine Tony Abbot, when warned of a huge upcoming solar storm
saying; “Well shut the power grid down then” not even Julia, it would take too long to convene the focus group.
OF course if we changed to an entirely dc electrical transmission system we would be more robust, more efficient and more renewables friendly but hey we can’t even agree on an NBN.
Huggy
@17 “Could we really Imagine Tony Abbot, when warned of a huge upcoming solar storm
saying; “Well shut the power grid down then” not even Julia, it would take too long to convene the focus group.”
Luckily, if necessary, it won’t be up to them.
Luckily, we’ve kept the greenies under-represented in parliaments, hence our economy is so strong we don’t have to worry about externalities like this.
If Australia was warned of the imminent arrival of a solar storm that could damage the power systems of our major
systemscities, our politicians will appoint a committee to investigate the matter and report back to parliament within two weeks. The committee will procrastinate until one minute to midnight then defer its decision as insufficient evidence is available and advise the politicians it needs more time and funding to complete its investigation which may be inconclusive. In the meantime, Rome burns.sorry, should be “major cities”, not “major systems”
[Fixed]
I’m guessing that depending on the duration and intensity of the solar storm it might only affect part of the planet. Is that correct? If so, its unlikely the entire world would be blacked out and replacement transformers could be shipped in from parts of the world that are still functioning. Of course, in a world where manufacturing of everything is increasingly out-sourced to East Asia, that might not be possible in a few years if China gets zapped.
Massive solar storms are kinda like massive tsunamis. They’re things that just don’t happen … until they do.
“Could we really Imagine Tony Abbot, when warned of a huge upcoming solar storm saying; “Well shut the power grid down then” not even Julia, it would take too long to convene the focus group.”
The problem being that governments (and corporations) increasingly worry more about legal action arising from doing something excessive, inefficient or incorrect than from doing nothing. This general principle is pervasive – it’s not just there in environmental matters. And perhaps if your risk management strategy is entirely self-centred and short-termist, it’s perfectly reasonable.
Leadership, however, it ain’t.
True dat, Lorax.
In fact, those areas not immediately affected (but in the firing line as the day/night wears on) would also have a chance to see what works and doesn’t elsewhere.
It’s exaggerated nonsense.
Look at what happened in Quebec in 1989:
No permanent damage was done to the network. The problem was that the protection systems were set too sensitively, they misinterpreted the induced currents as faults, and so tripped a bunch of circuit breakers. The solution was basically to “raise the trip level”, as it says.
Note that this kind of problem affects transmission systems that are very long in an east-west direction. Australia’s system is primarily north-south, and so unlikely to be affected in any case.
The last time such an event occurred it was a small one in 1989 that brought the Quebec Hydro down.
downhttp://www.solarstorms.org/SWChapter1.html
“In less than a minute, Quebec lost half of its electrical power generation. Automatic load-reduction systems tried to restore a balance between the loads connected to the power grid, and the massive loss of capacity now available. One by one, the load-reduction systems disconnected towns and regions across Quebec, but to no avail. Domestic heating and lighting systems began to flicker and go out. Eight seconds later at 2:45:24 AM, power swings tripped the supply lines from the 2,200 megawatt Churchill Falls generation complex. By 2:45:32 AM, the entire Quebec power grid collapsed, and most of the province found itself without power. The cascading of events was much too fast for human operators to react, but it was more than enough time for 21,500 megawatts of badly needed electrical power to suddenly disappear from service.”
More: “Hydro-Quebec’s solution to the blackout was to install devices that block solar storms created geomagnetically-induced currents from traveling through its transmission lines. Unfortunately, this solution is extremely complex and expensive ($1.2 billion) (Quinn, 2000).”
And more here.
http://science.nasa.gov/science-news/science-at-nasa/2009/21jan_severespaceweather/
I guess it will take a really big one before we do any-thing about it. The massive interconnectedness of the modern electricity supply network makes us very vulnerable indeed.
Huggy
@27 I’m not certain the interconnectedness is a bad thing HB – our power systems have at least some distributed systems robustness
SJ
transmission lines in Victoria are predominantly
East West, but are much shorter (approx. 150km from the Latrobe Valley to Melb.; lines from Snowy Scheme are longer). Lines from the Latrobe Valley to Portland smelter are longer too.
Is the Bass Strait cable linking Tassie to Vic less subject to geomagnetically induced currents?
This is 1 in 500 yr event.I do not think we need more scare mongering.Swine flu ,pig flu ,W2k bug. terror terror everywhere,climate scares etc. The biggest terrorists are the neo-cons in the USA and Israel.
Ambigulous
Canada has transmission lines around 750 km long east-west, so they get affected more by a factor of 5.
Basslink is basically north-south, so there’s not much induced voltage, and it’s surrounded by seawater, which short-circuits the induce voltage.
The road, the road they all cried. Blimey it ain’t gonna be worse than that bloody fillum based on the Cormack McCarthy book is it? By when do you imagine that we’ll all have to start eating each other? How long does human flesh last without refrigeration? Anyway, maybe the aliens who really invented the transistor will save us?
I see a few smart-arses have arrived and left their recipes for cynicism of the threat. Some of the other scary stuff since the the embedded Y2 K bug have been fictional in the sense that what was declared as a problem has been made by humans. This little planet compared to the sun needs some friends.The only real way to be a friend of this Earth is to know it is a speck of dust with some biological activity. Ego soup self fed by cynicism on this danger needs to be applied somewhere else.As in is this the best application of science and technology and has something been overlooked!? But batty with not to decent politicians, Australians may need to think in a Survivalist mode.
@31 SJ Does Basslink’s monopole return matter?
I think this is one nightmare too many for me to personally worry about. I’ll stick to having nightmares about gamma ray bursters.
I’m thinking there’s still plenty to worry about. Huggy links to a NASA news item of January 2009 that tells us there was an event in 1921 as much as 10 times stronger than the 1989 Quebec storm. Carrington was 50% or more stronger again.
The New Scientist article tells us the Carrington event “comprised eight days of severe space weather”.
It says that apart from having no power, people would find they had no water. Petrol stations could not pump fuel. Hospitals would run out of emergency power after 72 hours.
The $2 trillion is for the US in the first year. The NASA report gives the recovery time as 4-10 years, but probably in all truth never.
For warnings we were then relying on the Advanced Composition Explorer (ACE) launched in 1997 and positioned between the earth and the sun.
But listen to this:
And:
I’m sorry I’d like specific information from Dr Wilkinson as to how these problems have been fixed.
As to the likelihood of such an event, take note of this:
I take no comfort from the 1893 Brisbane flood:
There were notable, but less severe floods in 1887 and 1890.
There is plenty in the range between Quebec and Carrington that can cause a lot of grief. Nothing has been said about the frequency of events less severe than Carrington.
I forgot to mention, this is what the article says about fixing the grid:
Brian, US Congress would appear to take it seriously: H. R. 5026 was approved unanimously just a few months ago.
Nick, thanks for that. The business part of it seems to be:
Plus the section that follows on transformer availability.
So in about 2 years time we’ll know how they balanced off risk and cost – in the US. Then after that they develop plans. Then they might do something, or not.
According to Stephen Baxter and the late Arthur C. Clarke, there is a big solar storm coming in 2037 and a mega one designed to roast us to a crisp in 2042, all orchestrated by aliens who think we’re disorderly.
It should be noted that Baxter and Clarke do an admirable job explaining the science and engineering around how a solar storm could seriously knock modern information, communication, transport and energy systems.
Not convinced that any of the scenarios outlined above warrant greater concern than an Abbott PM event.
“Then they might do something, or not.”
I’m reasonably confident they will, Brian, even if takes the whole two years to get those mandatory reliability standards in place.
They’ve moved surprising fast (Waxman in particular) on this since that NAS report in 2008. HR 2195 was passed October 2009, which I think granted FERC the authority to enforce a HR 5026, and pretty much read as an explicit directive for them to get cracking.
That it dovetails with security concerns about malicious attack/cyber warfare etc would have helped move the thing along, I’m sure…
But there were also events like the Northeast Blackout of 2003 in recent enough memory, which demonstrated for everyone to see just how easily and quickly grid failures can cascade.
An interesting note at the bottom of that page, btw:
Preparations against the possible disruptions threatened by the Year 2000 problem have been credited for the installation of new electrical equipment and systems which allowed for a relatively rapid restoration of power in some areas
Have a read at empcouncil.org for progress in other nations.
Oops, first link is stuffed…
[Fixed now, I think-Brian]
Like i said in 18 a little (lot) planning for various disaster scenarios might be a good idea.
We will not do this because at the deepest core of our ideology lies the concept the we are the masters of the earth. That we are some-how special and qualitatively different from all the other animals that inhabit the earth. That mass extinction events cannot happen to us.
Like I said this does not mean that we should cower in caves but it does mean that we should actively anticipate and plan for all contingencies. What otherwise is the use of our much vaunted intelligence?
Huggy
One event at a time.Paul Norton went off the planet.And the
Paul Norton went off the planet,my computer changed pages,and I did type one event at a time,and the GRB thingo has already been linked with 2012.Some things I think need to be thought about.Perhaps a review of what transformers are now,and what they were.Is it really such a difficult problem .At Dorrigo and down the rail line are any number of stationary steam trains.These are still functional so steam generation would or could mean only the wheel or bogey systems need to spin faster to get smaller generator activity.Don’t get bogged down in transformer design,these matters aren’t that difficult.And Nikola Tesla was a fan of aluminium.I think however some basic matters need to be considered.What ever happened to drilling holes and providing an Earth.Don’t get bogged down again with the word Earth.But Faraday cages have undergone a number of evolution revolutions,and holes can be deeper longer and be done fairly rapidly.So I guess in a theoretical haze I am in,I am wondering out aloud what is the significant difference between Faraday cages and Earths!?I know how to answer that myself,but, I am looking for something other than the distinction.I keep remembering the point about a point is that electricity will flow to the sharpest point.So if electricity flows to the sharpest point,I just think Humanity should be able to apply itself to just letting that happen down below where the flow then maybe useful.Hence start somewhere magnetized star pickets often made by BHP.If that can be done so can larger holes or deeper holes and something like an Earth- Faraday Cage.There will be an easy market for those pickets, but, their development and use could quickly simplify what needs to be done.
Arjay@30: 1 in 500 yrs means that there is a 2% chance of happening in the next 10 yrs and a 16% chance that it will happen in my grandchildren’s lifetimes. So something with the potential to destabilize civilization is worth acting on.
GregH@28: You say
Part of the problem with building robustness in the way you talk about is that it is used to reduce the “safety margin” generating capacity we need instead of adding to system robustness. Then there is the unexpected consequences such as finding that it makes us more vulnerable to things like Carrington events.
Good Lord Huggy, are you suggesting we should adhere to sound natural disaster risk management practice?
Anyone here thought about our grid system and a very cold snap as in South America Bolivia etc!?Just been to http:/ nature.com after assessing both Rense.com and Alex Jones Infowars.com and PrisonPlanet.com!?What are the tolerances for carrying weight on the pylons and then the related shrinkage of wire and metals!?Overseas people are not so impressed by AGW logic,and well experiences in South America recently show why.I think there is something of a false dawn in the Greening of Australia.Maybe a double whammy for 2012. Drought and heavy snows.Lots of happiness about rain and snow in the ALPS right now.But what a bloody waste ecologically and farming and settlement wise,if the end result doesn’t flow well into the Murray.I don’t want to get too pushy,but, the snow lines need to be assessed to be engineered softly by crop bales to get flows where they are needed.Recently tried to get research papers from Fed.Government sources on their accumulated knowledge of strawbales.Nothing forthcoming as yet.Oppurtunity for experimentation is rapidly diminishing.Drought affects the ALPS there should not be a real problem in siphoning off the melt to increase the flow through the Snowy Scheme into the Murray.Hands tied.Some may not like this ,but, this country has fallen to sleep under some Greens’ pressure.Sadly they are not good at making quick “decisive” decision,under the precautionary principle.Which has limited quality if there is more than a perceived series of crises.Hope this is oxymoron free.
ON interconnectedness.
In Victoria under the State Electricity Commission (SEC) the power systems network was massively interconnected; it was robust against a single point of failure, but perhaps not so good against a Carrington type event.
The Kennett privatisation saw many of the interconnections removed for commercial reasons. There was considerable discussion in certain academic circles at the time about the ability of the new disconnected system to recover from a “system black” – total network failure. No-one at the time had a plan for this, although the SEC had formulated one for the old highly connected network.
The Kiwis know about stuff like this (in a microcosm): http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1998_Auckland_power_crisis
MY spies tell me that the decision not to replace the 40 year old cables was made by accountants and lawyers against the advice of the engineers.
Nothing will be done about the prospect of any number of prospective catastrophic events until we re-educate our accountants and send all our lawyers off to a desert island some-where so that they can feed on torts.
Huggy
The NASA report referred to in the NS article is here,, all 132 pages of it.
An earlier NS article on the Carrington Event, “Darl side of the sun” on 4 Sept 2004, reports an estimate by Bruce Tsurutani at the Jet Propulsion Lab that:
It seems that calling concern about the effects of a similar event “exaggerated nonsense” is exaggerated nonsense.
Huggy: To some extent lawyers actually help because the fear of liability claims can be a useful driver. However, we need to make sure that those who have to decide to shut down a grid or use de3cide what protection settings are used to protect the grid are protected – at least if they are being over cautious.
Huggybunny @ 49
Accountants are not to blame for the ills of the world and to think otherwise is to misunderstand their role.
Accountants compile and present financial information concerning the allocation of scarce (usually financial) resources. It is MANAGEMENT that then decides whether to act on the information received in a particular way or to file it in the circular filing cabinet.
As is evidenced by the lack of infrastructure spending in this country, decision makers whether in politics or business tend to operate on a short term time frame and not a longer term one. Our loss.
MikeM @ 50 thanks for the link. I linked to that site in my post last year. I thought it was behind the paywall, but it turns out it’s not.
JohnD,
In the case of the Auckland catastrophe the management consisted entirely of accountants and lawyers.
QED.
Huggy: Anyone silly enough to leave a power company in the hands of lawyers and accountants should be forced to pay double compensation after they have served their jail sentence for criminal stupidity.
How often do you get the feeling that this country would be a lot better off with a few serious engineers in cabinet?
One of the things I remember about the Auckland power crisis is that they didn’t have the expertise to fix it in Auckland and had to call in people from Sydney.
I’m reminded of the ‘big pong’ in Adelaide the year before, the result of privatisation and downsizing.
Chris Sheil blamed it on economic rationalism and the National Competition policy.
I distinctly remember that there was one guy who knew how to fix it. Unfortunately they had made him redundant. He was found in Qld on the Sunshine Coast and flown back to Adelaide, so that the long-suffering citizen’s could breathe again.
Brian,
You remember well, the Auckland company was gutted of all technical expertise and the failure was the inevitable result.
Was at a “smart grid” conference in Bris today. Very little waffle from the engineers nothing but waffle from the bizoids.
Wish the bloody greens would get themselves an engineer. The elephant in the room was the accelerating network disaster that is rooftop PV.
Huggy.
Huggy: You are right about the greens needing more engineering input. Wonder if they would listen to a grumpy oil engineer who supports serious climate action while thinking putting a price on carbon and not supporting gas fired power is counter productive?
JohnD.
Agree, Gas fired power is the fastest lowest cost way to reduce our CO2 emissions.
Rooftop solar will not do it in any way at all.
I am annoyed with the green myopia.
Huggy