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59 responses to “Strocchiology: The roundtable post we had to have”

  1. Lefty E

    I predict TEH CULTURAL WETNESS to continue!

    Specifically: No net loss of seats to Tories (not counting ALP ‘notionals’), but minus one seat to the Greens in Melbourne.

    i.e. 82 Seats to ALP

  2. hannah's dad

    I put my prediction here a few days ago but can’t remember exactly what it was or, more importantly, whether I was in an optimistic or pessimistic mood at the time.

    I don’t think the ALP will get much from the incumbency effect so-called.

    A 2PP of 51% plus a tad to the ALP, net loss of 1%, maybe plus a tad cf 2007.
    That was always on the cards from day 1.
    Greens hopefully above 10%.
    If I can believe and trust Mark that the loss in Qld is not as bad as I fear so that should give a comfy margin to the ALP after several losses and some gains overall.

    But I’ll go for 78 seats to the ALP and we won’t know until the middle of next week or later.

  3. Down and Out of Sài Gòn

    Being a pessimist, I predict Labor to get up to 74 and then conk out. Fortunately, all three of the independents (and Bandt) decide to support Gillard with “conditions”. Lots of them. Not so much pork, but actual policy changes. More BER, quicker rollout of the NBN in the bush. Maybe even an actual climate policy.

    Waitaminute… that doesn’t sound so bad.

  4. Nickws

    I wrote on the weekend that I think Labor wins about five seats less than what Malcolm Mackerras categorises as a landslide in the reps (he puts that at 85).

    80-ish seems to be what’s left if Labor loses a couple north of the tweed, loses Melbourne to the Greens, and scrapes together replacement pickups across Vic, WA and SA. Tassie is firm.

    My big, rash prediction—No Coalition pickups in NSW! No, not because Karl`n’Mark are right about pandering to the lowest common denominator in the western suburbs, but because NSW doesn’t like Rightwing Liberal leaders who aren’t called John Howard (a dynamic that needn’t prevent O’Farrell from being able to win the next state election).

    The psychological fallout from such a result as this would be priceless. The Libs and the Nats haven’t even begun to assess what it means to be beaten by that woman. There’s a looming conservative expulsion of bile we haven’t detected yet, as non-conservatives tend to focus on Gillard being no better or no worse than any standard modern Labor leader, if maybe one who got there in a slightly grubbier fashion (the fact she’s the preferred crony of the knuckledraggers & rednecks in the ALP/union movement also prevents the Leftleaning from sensing that a not insignificant portion of Coalition Australia is about to freak out over PM Madame Mao Castrating B*tch STEALING AN ELECTION11!!!).

  5. sg

    Greens landslide in both houses, ecological fascism forever.

  6. Pavlov's Cat

    The Tarot reading I did a week or two ago, in response to a comment from that well-known warlock Mr Paul Burns, suggested fairly strongly (if I was reading Teh Cards correctly) that there will be a hung parliament or some other un-clear-cut result involving a great deal of confusion, and that one of the two leaders is going to crash and burn.

    Astrologically speaking, if you look at the leaders it’s Scorpio (no prizes for guessing who that is) v. Libra, and that doesn’t look good for Julia. On the other hand, if you look at the parties, the Liberal Party is a Libran like Julia, and Labor is a Taurus, like me.

    The Bull to win.

    As it were.

  7. patrickg

    79 to Labor.

  8. Megan

    Well I think you are all wrong. I think the Coalition will win and our coming election night will be utterly blasted by the sight of Tony Abbott’s smug, triumphant grin and his proclamations of unctuous graciousness in victory. He will kiss his proud family, wave to the multitudes, high-five his dummy treasurer Shrek. Then there will be the grim concomitant creak as the zombies on his front bench, kept safely in their coffins for the duration of the campaign, finally shuffle into view before the cameras, their faces cracking into ghastly grins. The News.ltd blogs will be alive to the sound of red-neck bogans that didn’t quite make the Liberal staffer grade tapping jubilantly away on their computers. The silent conservative Australian majority right across the country will all breathe a sigh of relief. Nothing will change. Business as usual.

  9. Liam

    Labor to pick up Hughes, lose Bennelong.

  10. Salient Green

    I think Labor will know they’ve won on election night. They don’t deserve it. They should win by a bees dick only and have to sweat for two weeks for the result.

    I think the Greens will be over 12% but I can’t see 15%, unfortunately.

  11. Liam

    I’ve already got money on with a colleague, BTW, that Alex Hawke MP will make it to the Liberal frontbench by November.
    Also no matter what the result Malcolm Turnbull to do an in-depth interview with a Fairfax paper before October about how he would’ve done better than Abbott.

  12. JG Mac

    ALP 77 LIBS 70 IND 3

    Seats to change
    Robertson, Macquarie, Deakin,Flynn,Page,Forde,Leichhardt, Brand,Moreton

  13. FDB

    ALP: 79
    Coal: 67
    Green: 1
    Other: 3

  14. FDB

    Er… this is the same… er… prediction I was… *shuffles papers* …. making five weeks ago… *sweats profusely*… *smiles winningly*

  15. Ute Man

    Mining companies via proxy: 85 seats
    Mining companies directly: 82 seats
    Confused/apathetic/greenwashed: 3 seats

    I has a sad.

  16. FDB

    I would like to be placed in your third category, Monsieur L’Ute, but sans l’opprobrium.

    He is the most sensible candidate for my vote – perhaps you envy this?

  17. Sam

    Ute Man, that’s 167 mining company seats in a 150 seat House of Reps. They are powerful, but not that powerful.

    Labor 80
    Lib Nats 65
    Indies 3
    Watermelons 2

  18. Robert Merkel

    My guess is that the ALP will do a little bit better than predicted, stretching a narrow win into something in the comfortable range. For what it’s worth I’ll tip 85-62-3.

    There will be a strong Greens vote and they’ll get the Senate BOP, but Adam Bandt will fall short in Melbourne because a few hundred Labor members will follow Andrew Norton’s advice.

  19. FDB

    So Sam, who’s your other member brought in by false-consciousness-suffrage?

  20. Tyro Rex

    Sam, which 2 will the watermelons get? Melbourne and ???

    I predict

    ALP 77
    LNP 69
    Greens 1
    Misc 3

  21. FDB

    Tyro – it’s almost incredible (and yet so apt) that someone could be so ALP as to predict a huge ALP victory AND find an enemy lurking where none has ever before lurked.

    Come on Sam – where are they hiding?

  22. Ute Man

    I don’t do maths on Wednesday – at least not very well. I still has a sad.

  23. Ambigulous

    ‘JWS Research’ polling:
    ALP 79
    Coalition 68
    Indep 3

    ***

    Mark B guesstimates:
    ALP 76 – 80
    “but that’s not a prediction”

    ***

    I dunno.
    I don’t do psephs on Wednesdays, at least not very well.
    I’m sad.

  24. Sam

    FDB, Melbourne and Grayndler

  25. Liam

    Sam, you’re only kidding yourself there. But your Strocchi-challenge is noted.
    Incidentally, for ten-Strocchipoints, spot your correspondent here amongst Grayndler’s workers and peasants at the Grayndler Debate!

  26. Sam

    Liam, remember where you heard it first. Albo is dead meat.

  27. Quog

    I predict in The West marginals that Alannah Mac Tiernan will win Canning, but the Liberals will take Swan and Hasluck.

    I predict Labor by a small margin overall, but Adam Bandt will unfortunately miss out by less than 1% (2PP) in Melbourne.

  28. Sam

    Liam, I’m guessing you’re the one in the red hat, third photo from the end.

    By the way, OT, I was passing my neighbourhood organic produce store on the weekend, and what did I see in the front window? Posters for the local Greens candidate! Some stereotypes are true.

  29. dylwah

    ALP 51.7% – 48.3%
    ALP 76 seats
    greens 1
    country party 3
    coalition the rest
    i refuse to demonstrate if i am any good at maths at this time of night ’cause if i do i will always get lumped with sorting the bill.

  30. Liam

    In all seriousness, Sam, red-hat-yellow-jacket I reckon was the best and most sincere speaker of the night.

  31. Andrew E

    Going by this and disagreeing with JWS about Bennelong, Macquarie and Corangamite, I make it ALP 80, Coalition 66, Green 1, other 3.

  32. weaver

    2PP
    ALP 52% / 48% LNP

    1P
    ALP 39%
    LNP 42%
    G 13%

    Seats
    ALP 79
    LNP 68
    IND 3

    By stuffing around with the ABC’s state by state sliders that was about as low as I could get the ALP seat result with those figures. Just plugging them in to the national slider came up with 83 ALP 64 LNP which seems a bit farfetched.

    That Byrne fellow is a mate of mine so I hope Sam is right about Grayndler, but I don’t hold out much hope. Or for Melbourne.

  33. Lefty E

    Srsly though – where are 76 coalition seats coming from – with ALP 2PP at 51 to 52?

    It just aint happening. Its now in the “mathematical possibility” realm of AFL (exclusively reserved for teams everyone pretty much knows wont make September).

  34. mick

    I predict that I’ll be pretty drunk regardless of the outcome in the lower house.

    I predict that the beverages drunk (by me) on Saturday will be something close to:

    Beer 5
    Wine 3
    Rum 2
    Tequila 1
    unidentifiable 2

    Current polls have me thinking that a coalition of the non-beer drinks will manage to squeek out a majority. However, on past form punters once they are actually at the bar have settled for beer as it is mostly trustworthy.

  35. tssk

    ALP to lose by a hair. Tones backed up by the might of the Murdoch press will crow about his mandate.

    And about time as someone in the media finally called it.

    http://blogs.news.com.au/dailytelegraph/piersakerman/index.php/dailytelegraph/comments/time_to_end_the_dud_experiment/

    Finally someone spills on the divide between the press and the voters last election. We made a mistake! But we can make up for it in Piers eyes. Just vote Coalition.

    Sadly I will be too weak and disappoint him.

  36. paul walter

    sly old pig.

  37. Gospel Truth

    Ratf***ers for the win!

    I think we can all agree this has been a vintage year for the rodent-enamoured.

  38. Paul Norton

    My predictions:

    52.5 to 47.5 Labor’s way on 2PP, which is more than they deserve.

    Greens vote most likely 12-13%.

    Seats: ALP 83, Coalition 63, Indies 3, Greens 1.

    A goodly ration of chardonnay to be quaffed by yours truly.

  39. PeterTB

    My predictions after a likely narrow Labor win:
    Tony to retain leadership with largely unchanged Team
    Julia to give Kevin Defence on the grounds that he can’t make it any worse than it is – and that we can’t afford the war with China that would likely result if he were given Foreign Affairs.

    On the other hand, should Tony get up against the odds:
    Tony to retain leadership with largely unchanged Team
    Julia to retain leadership on the back of the parliamentary party’s hatred of Rudd, and because she bribes him with the Foreign Affairs job. Then after about three weeks………

  40. FDB

    I can only assume the lass beside you is tweeting about the speakers’ hairdos rather than paying attention to policy Liam. For shame.

  41. Charlie

    Looking at the 2007 results, you’d have to say Bandt has a great chance in Melbourne. He ran 2nd to Tanner in 07 – this time, no Tanner. Further, there really has been a sustained publicity campaign over quite a few months for Bandt and the Greeens on local ABC radio and TV. I’d venture he would be the best recognised Green candidate in Melbourne. So I’d bet a tenner that Melbourne will go Green.

    As for the rest of the country…. one thing I think will be interesting this election will be the time zone stuff.

    If the TV news reports from the East say that Labor & Jooola have been returned, then I think it will have an impact on votes in the West which could make a difference to close seats over there.

  42. Matt D

    Labor 76. Greens to win Melbourne.

    The usual suspects in the press to complain about how the election was stolen.

    If Labor win, Joe Hockey to make a run at NSW premier. I have heard this rumour from two different sources since the weekend.

    If Labor lose, infighting and recrimination on a simply massive scale. Disarray won’t come close to describing it.

  43. Fran Barlow

    If the ALP win fairly comfortably — (say by 5 seats or more even allowing for the 3-4 crossbenchers) and there is an ALP-green sentate I’d say Abbott is toast. He was never going to get a better run than he had this time. The ALP could not have played this worse than they did. The media (including the ABC) could hardly have been friendlier and lets recall that if Fran Bailey had not been ill and one person had not voted informal, Turnbull would have resisted the challenge.

    If this is the high tide, then they are not winning in their current format. They will hang onto him for a while, because nobody will want the hospital pass, but smoe time in 2012 it will be on again.

    What happens to the Nats will be interesting. If they continue to decline, the merger is on. If they recover, then the effect on the coalition will be even more divisive.

    It’s quite possible of course that a shattering defeat (one where the Coalition make no net gains, or worse, which is not impossible) would see the Liberals themselves split into moderate and not so moderate factions, with Abbott in charge of the uglies and Turnbull in charge of the others.

  44. Brett

    You’re all a bunch of strocchwits.

    GRN 1, the rest TBD.

  45. Rebekka

    ALP 78
    Coalition 69
    Indep 3

    Greens Party won’t win Melbourne.

  46. Josh

    Sam is either widly optimistic or pessimistic about Grayndler. Ain’t happening. Among other things, not enough Libs will preference the Greens. That’s if the Greens come ahead of the Libs, which they haven’t managed yet.

    Albo is so relaxed that for the first time in at least 3 elections he has not mentioned the danger of the Greens accidentally getting in on a protest vote in his election materials.

  47. Josh

    On Melbourne, if the Greens don’t win it this time they never will. Especially since the Vic party just got handed $300k by the ETU.

    Strocchiological prediction:

    ALP 80
    CLN 66
    IND 3
    GRN 1

    I guessed 83 last time so hoping form stays good.

  48. The Bean Counter

    Coalition 79 ALP 68 Indis 3.

    Most interesting, from the predictions, many are completely deluded if they think it won’t be at least a seriously reduced majority IF labor gets back.

    LEFTY E @32 8-10 in Qld…6-7 NSW..1-2 WA. Maybe 1 each in Tas/NT (maybe!). They also have 3 Conservative Indis in reserve.

    Look for an unexpectedly high 2nd/3rd preferencing to the LNP.

  49. Sam

    Maybe 1 each in Tas/NT (maybe!).

    Bean counter, if you think the Libs will win any seats in Tas/NT then you are on drugs.

    Your aggregate for the coalition is incompletely inconsistent with the polls, unless you are counting on as-likely-as-winning-lotto outcomes for all the marginals.

  50. Nickws

    The CLP (Northern Territory Coalition fusion party) candidate in Labor’s one reps seat is a man accused by his colleagues of being a domestic violence offender & unfit to be elected.
    And he’s aboriginal.

    Yeah, that’s the way for the conservatives to coast to victory in the Top End.

  51. Rebekka

    “Most interesting, from the predictions, many are completely deluded if they think it won’t be at least a seriously reduced majority IF labor gets back.”

    What predictions are those? Possum Comitatus is predicting 77/69/4, in the ALP’s favour, the aggregate current phone poll trend shows 80/67/3, Newspoll from 13-15 August shows 83/64/3, Neilson 10-12 August shows 87/60/3, you say Coalition 79 ALP 68 Indis 3. and we’re the delusional ones?

    Ha.

  52. Josh

    I’d also like the get the ball rolling on the Senate. Which is really a game of “how many seats will the Greens pick up?” and “will any other minor parties or independents spring a surprise?”

    If the Greens won in every state and the ACT (possibly with current polling) that would give them 10 (7 + 3 elected in 2007).

    On that basis I predict Greens will end up with 7 – missing out in ACT, Vic (to go 3/3 as in 2007) and WA (to go 4/2 to the Libs).

  53. snorky

    Bean Counter @47, for one awful moment I thought you meant three of the member for Indi, the egregious Sophie Mirabella nee Panopoulos. Thanks Rebekka for clarifying for me.

  54. Rebekka

    @ snorky, thank the goddess there’s only one of her. Imagine if Ms Mirabella nee Panopoulos had been triplets.

  55. paul walter

    The Goddess is most merciful, 53.

  56. Doug

    On Tasmania see Kevin Bonham’s take on the Tasmanian seats in the Tasmanian times (online)

    EMRS and the Godzilla poll both suggest a strong swing to ALP on 2PP terms om Tasmania. Bass is kevin suggests much less marginal than it looks. Braddon is the really vulnerable seat for the ALP in Tasmania and there is no evidence that there is anything happening for the coalition down there. See also Peter Tucker’s commentary where he suggests the Liberals are broke and there is factional warfare underway

  57. Sam

    Imagine if Ms Mirabella nee Panopoulos had been triplets.

    They would have devoured each other at birth.

  58. joe2

    Brian Costar has a best case scenario for Labor at 81/65 and worst 78/65.
    http://inside.org.au/who-will-win-and-by-how-much/

  59. Liam

    kLiam, remember where you heard it first. Albo is dead meat

    [cough]
    Jesus, look at me, I’m satisfied that Labor won Grayndler. That’s this election in a nut.