Tony Windsor has just revealed to Tony Jones on Lateline that Treasury has found that the costings of Labor’s campaign promises were broadly in line with the ALP’s statements, but that there is a “black hole”, to use Windsor’s words, of either 7 or 11 billion dollars depending on what assumptions are made on the Coalition side.
Update: Link to the costings is here.
This is blowback from Smirker’s jackass budget honesty scheme.
To be honest, I reckon its always been a complete crock – an incoming govt can always test their budget after the get in with treasury, and adjust accordingly. Its all set up to advantage incumbents.
But hey: The Libs brought it in to screw labor, and now they’re hoist on their own petard, and the serves them right.
Hear that? thats the sound of Phoney’s credibility leaving the building. What a bunch of shysters!
This is huge. If by some chance the four independents knock back Labor’s offer and decide to go with the LNP, they will have some ‘splainin to do as to why they went with the party of dodgy accounting.
Before that, however, it will be Mr Rabbit who has the ‘splainin to do. Expect to see him squirming away on the news tomorrow. Expect his body language to be that of a man seeing the power seat slip out of his hands.
The Coalition’s ship is sinking fast.
I can think of a dozen other metaphors at this point.
Tim Colebatch predicted this, and explains why it is thus:
Sucks for the Coalition to be the first conservative Opposition ever to have to admit to being in a hole so, so very close to taking office (’87 isn’t really comparable).
Easy fix – All Tony has to do is accept Labor’s mining tax plan and the hole will be just about filled.
Any suggestions to Dennis Shanahan as to how to spin this?
So, when are these costing going to be released to we can see what Tony means by “broadly” and how you arrive at the pretty wide band of 7-11 billion? To be honest, I don’t trust Windsor any more than I trust Abbot or Gillard.
LE, I have marveled at your fortitude! All through the election campaign you said the ALP will get over the line and while I have lain awake at night, you have radiated a certain calm…
Perhaps, events are starting to go against the coalition. Here’s hoping!
Ha! Surprise! Surprise!
This from the party that the public still believe are better at managing the economy
So why are the Independents still prevaricating?
11 billion is the size of the projected surplus. The coalition is on line to deliver their promose of returning to surplus just as fast as labour. Its all hypothetical anyway with these treasury costings. History would predict that they are almost certainly wrong. Labour’s predictions for surpluses by history’s reckoning can’t be belived. Coalition surpluses have often been bigger than modelled.
Like they say Joe – money talks and bullshit walks.
You have every reason to be feeling slightly more confident with this news.
As for me – I wasnt calm or confident deep down – just angry.
I frankly dont care if Im wrong. I just believe in the power of optimism to shape futures. Hence my upbeat hype throughout.
@5
I don’t think the Murdoch Press would even mention it.
I heard on the 11pm radio news that the Coalition stand by their costings. It will be interesting to see what their reasoning is.
“Any suggestions to Dennis Shanahan as to how to spin this?”
“Hey, look, over there! Its …..[insert red herring of choice]”
Basically ignore it, bluster, hand wave and talk about something else, evil Greeny/ALP plot or resuscitate Rudd or whatever comes to mind.
As Megan says.
No, Mr. Abbott will once again bluster his way through it, as he has done all along. His line will be that he was right to be suspicious of Treasury.
The 4 indies aren’t mugs, Fehowarth – even if our journos are.
Of course, Shannahan will find a way to spin this. No matter how flimsy the explanation will be, he’ll shamelessly offer it, and the rusted-on Lib supporters will eat it up with a spoon.
The Libs will get away with this. They always do.
Good on Malcolm Fraser for exposing the ‘Australian’, as they continuosly undermined Kevin Rudd. It was obvious even to him.
It would have been priceless to know what Jessica Rudd was thinking. Her face was a picture of majestic calm… what was behind it?? Who knows?
So the upshot of all this is that Treasury thinks the Coalition will deliver a bigger surplus in 12-13.
Read the advice.
LE, I couldn’t talk myself into Katter, Windsor and Oakshot as being anything other than a desperate ploy by die-hard national party stalwarts to try and stay relevant. New England’s an interesting electorate. Windsor seems to actually be a serious politician.
This is really getting interesting. From a Green perspective it would be really interesting if they could start to build some bridges with the likes of Windsor.
Hey LE and as for the power of optimism– keep shaping man! You’re doing a great job!
Also this is from the Treasury’s ALP costings:
On the basis of the advice received from the Prime Minister on 30 August 2010, the Departments are satisfied that, with one exception, the funding for the commitments that were not included in the ALP’s release of 20 August 2010 can be met from within the existing forward estimates. The exception is the proposed offshore migration processing facility. That proposal cannot be costed at this stage because the details of the policy are yet to be settled.
It says the coalition has miscalculated their forecast savings by a whopping 11 billion.
People will read that in the light of their accountability dodging routine as a deliberate attempt to deceive.
This bit of classic double-counting has to be my favourite:
http://www.theage.com.au/federal-election/7bn-hole-in-abbotts-policy-costings-20100901-14nrb.html
So… the “audit” statements (did they include those things in ads? or just under parliamentary privilege?) were…
… Hockey hokey!
(http://en.wiktionary.org/wiki/hokey “Of obviously flimsy credibility or quality”)
@ 16 and 19—So, Abbott is going to be spared a savaging over the next couple of news cycles because Labor hasn’t finalised an East Timor processing centre scheme that would cost about as much as the Coalition’s Nauru plan? That’s the gotcha that balances out a seven/eleven billion dollar budget blackhole? Really? (And if Gillard decides to just continue using facilities on Australian soil I suppose the cost will then be sfa compared to either off-shore plan.)
Jesus Christ, this “look over there, boatpeople swamping Australia!” rhetoric is a sick parody of Gore Vidal’s comments about Richard Nixon’s sleazyness, IIRC something about “when asked about inflation Nixon would respond with, ‘we must stop kids from getting hooked on pot’.”
Always with the fucking boats.
From LE’s link:
In the news item I heard on ABC radio I swear it was billion, not million. But the online item, now a bit fuller, says “million”.
Matt C @ 19 and Peter W @ 21, what are you quoting from?
Nichws, as I recall the Coalition said their Nauru strategy was going to save money. Only 3 boats a year, remember!
Treasury’s assessments:
Coalition costings
ALP costings
Could swear I read all this a couple of days ago!
wbb, I think that the “$5 billion out of education, billions out of health, produced a broadband policy that was a joke, took $2.5bn out of the strategic reserve” etc is actually additional to what is at issue in the Treasury costings.
The lateline transcipt is now up:
If ever there was conclusive evidence of News limited bias not one of murdochs papers allowed the GREAT BIG COSTING CON on to their front pages. Robb Hockey and Phoney should be tested in the high court for knowingly attempting to mislead the Australian voting public.
Sorry I forgot call in the AFP the leaker becomes more transparent.
Patricia,
Love your work. Not enough poetry in politics these days. Perhaps we should have parliamentary question time in compulsory rhyming couplets, to make it more interesting.
“TONY JONES: Does any of this make you suspicious as to Tony Abbott’s reasons for not wanting originally to put his costings into Treasury?
TONY WINDSOR: I think that’s the obvious thing to ask.
We probably understand now why he wasn’t interested in releasing the numbers. And then I think Andrew Robb came up…[a load of bulldust]”
BUSTED!!!!
They were hoping they’d already be in the Lodge before anyone noticed.
It’s still not over yet, but it’s going to be very hard for the indies, after getting all these briefings and seeking stability and responsibility, to back Abbott.
Full marks to Brian and Lefty E for maintaining that this would occur somewhere along the line.
Interesting that the only uncosted labor thing is an offshore processing centre. Oddly enough, the Green alliance might render that redundant now anyway.
The current economic outlook reports give further ammunition to Labor’s credentials.
Abbott on the other hand is looking more like Dubya in competency, held together almost entirely by Fox/News Ltd spinning.
the surpluses are always bigger under the coalition oops I mean the cost cuttings are always bigger under the coalition oops the bulls**t is always bigger under the coalition , you get the idea at least the Canb Times has the 11b on the front page. the hopes of the country are always bigger under labor
[Abbott on the other hand is looking more like Dubya in competency, held together almost entirely by Fox/News Ltd spinning.]
And thank all higher forces, known and unknown, that we dont live in a country where you can storm the AEC, shut down the count, and have a judge your brother appointed declare it kosher.
Don, thanks. The COALition are claiming a $258 million dividend over two years from processing asylum seekers in Nauru, not because it’s cheaper there, it isn’t, but on the false notion that the policy will stop the boats, which is most unlikely.
LE @ 35, Windsor keeps repeating (as with Fran Kelly this morning) that the critical factor is trust. He can’t be impressed with Robb saying, as he is, that they stand by their costings.
The costings include a productivity dividend of 2% on PS expenditure, after they’ve frozen recruitment for 2 years costing 12,000 jobs. Treasury only comments on whether they’ve got the arithmetic right, not on the wisdom or practicality of the policy.
Brian62 @ 32, there is not a word about all this in the Courier Mail this morning and tomorrow it will be ancient history.
Brian, maybe it’s time to use the Courier Mail’s own tools against it? They do have a breaking news story up about the costings fiasco: http://www.couriermail.com.au/news/breaking-news/bn-blackhole-in-opposition-costings/story-e6freonf-1225913106608 – why not get in there and Facebook Recommend/Tweet/Share with all the social media widgets they provide? I’m certain they pay attention to the metrics derived from those tools.
Something just up at the snail, Brian, but hard to find. The Australian has just recently moved the story to the top over it’s Greeny beat-up.
http://www.couriermail.com.au/news/breaking-news/bn-blackhole-in-opposition-costings/story-e6freonf-1225913106608
Dave Bath @ 24
The audit firm used for the Coalition’s costings is under investigation by the Institute of Chartered Accountants in Australia after it received a complaint.
Since the costings clearly weren’t audited an appropriate disclaimer should have been provided.
Details are on Peter Martin’s website I believe.
This morning’s Age had three nice Labor stories on the front page. Gillard signing up with the Greens, the Coalition’s rotten estimates and how well the economy is going. Just a little bit of balance to the News Ltd. stuff.
I still have this gut feeling they’re going to side with the Coaltion after all this. I know they have no reason to, but…
Or, alternatively, we could see something like Oakeshott and Windsor going with Labor, Katter going with Coaltion and Wilkie refusing to side with anyone. Well, actually I feel like we could see anything at this stage. But, I would feel happier if Wilkie had thrown his hat in with Labor and got some momentum happening.
Predictably The “Australian” pulls out an attack article that they keep in reserve for such occasions:
http://www.theaustralian.com.au/news/opinion/online-aunty-walks-only-on-left-side-of-the-street/story-e6frg6zo-1225913008538
As for the black hole, maybe the Treasury cannot be trusted. Why don’t we trust the good to excellent economic figures that are coming out day after day? These are real figures, not predictions. I would rather have the good economics. After all is not bad or good politics nothing more than spin. Why is it too hard for the media to say something good about Labor, especially when it is the truth?
A major news story is broken by…wait for it…Telephone.
There should be a award for the worst mixed-metaphor of the month – the “Fascist octopus has sung its swan song” prize, if you will. Two days in to September, and “Online Aunty walks only on left side of the street” would be a serious contender.
Pessimism pessimism, tut tut tut.
A decision to side with the coalition will be a decision to put a CLOWN HAT ON at this point.
If anyone moves *today* it’ll be to Gillard. In a few days, who knows.
I’m not one of the more knowledgeable people on this site but the gap between Abbott’s promises and the costings came as no surprise to me.
It isn’t just that Coalition promises came so late in the day and so obviously thought-bubbled in a desperate short-term bid to come up with something, anything, to appear that they had policies; it’s the fact that we’ve been here before. Had the Liberals won outright, they would have taken a couple of days and then come out with long faces (and fingers crossed behind their backs) opining that there was a “budget black hole” left behind by their predecessors, which would naturally make it regrettably necessary to ditch their too-generous policies and start slashing savagely at social welfare as well.
The fact that the popular term “black hole” has been applied to them, instead, makes this all the more delicious.
They won’t just eat it up with a spoon, they’ll do a triple twist and as many pikes as possible into it, there to wallow only surfacing to say, “It’s OK for us LIEberals to lie, cheat, obfuscate and evade scrutiny, just business as usual.”
Great new big HOLE.
Sorry, thats: Great big new HOLE.
someone on twitter said “Tony needs budget smugglers” – brilliant!
maybe there should be a poll asking: “if the election policy costings had been available prior to the election would this have influenced your vote”?
Yer, Peter, Galaxy and Newspoll will go for that one for certain. Not.
Here I was thinking a black hole involved an event horizon and a singularity.
Yes you can really imagine News Ltd comissioning that one.
Incidentally, I don’t know anything about Sue Cato, but on radio702 Sydney, spin doctors segment she was desperately spinning the line that these costings matter only to the independents who are holding the country to ransom, blah blah blah.
As the coalition were standing for election as an alternative government, I would have thought an error of such magnitude would be of concern to everyone.
If Sue Cato has Liberal party connections, it wouldn’t be the first time that the ABC has used people in this and other segments without disclosing their strong poltical affiliations. Bob Lawrence(a regular on the Spin Doctor segment)is an example that springs to mind.
The pity of it is that it took the independents to bring this to light when a halfway decent media would have exposed it to adequate scrutiny during the election campaign.
joe2 and adrian re the poll
Thats my point, the media should have exposed the dishonesty of the Libs before the election and they have failed to do their job in spectacular fashion. I wonder whether they will push the “we need a new election” line now?
They had a guy on ABC24 earlier today, an ex economist of some description, who was defending the Libs saying that ‘mistakes’ of this sort are ONLY due to Oppostions NOT having access to Treasury figures and such.
Ok, but then why does Abbott STILL claim that Liberal government surpluses will ALWAYS be bigger than Labor’s. What’s he basing that on??
If it’s an accepted claim that Opps figures can be compromised, THEN STOP CLAIMING bigger projected surpluses.
Remember Howard’s ‘Interest rates will ALWAYS be lower under a Coalition government.’
Well, during the economic downturn, we had 4% interest rates under Rudd, but you didn’t hear him gloating foolishly.
Peter at @44 – oh that’s a nasty little piece but I’m curious as to why Gavin Atkins focuses on the comments, rather than the content, or noting the great writings of the Glenn Milnes etc of the world on The Drum. I look forward to his analysis of Andrew Bolt’s blog.
Who the hell is Gavin Atkins anyway. His blog isn’t very enlightening on this or any other matter.
@ 6 Craig Ranapia The Australian had pdf versions of both sets of costings available last night. http://www.theaustralian.com.au/
DOCUMENT: Coalition costings
DOCUMENT: ALP costings
Bernice @ 60 I agree- just try posting a strong counter argument to Atkins piece in comments and you’ll see how committed he is to unbiased discussion.
Down and out of Sai Gon @47 “only auntie walks on the left side of the street” that’s a big improvement on the one way streets created in the world of News limited.
Oakeshott was on the 3pm news saying this is definitely a major issue for him. He trusts Ken Henry and notes that Henry’s Mum lives in his electorate!
The Age:
adrian @ 61, Gavin Atkins is a Media Officer at the Australian National Nuclear Research and Development Organisation (Lucas Heights). That’s his day job anyway.
Sorry, I meant Australian Nuclear Science and Technology Organisation or ANSTO. I haven’t had enough coffee yet (I’m in Chiang Mai at the moment, so I’m 3 hours behind Oz).
Thanks Doug. Lucky you, being in Chang Mai!