In the wake of the Campbell Newman shenagigans in the LNP yesterday (described by many commentators as a “courageous” gambit, presumably in the Sir Humphrey sense), Anna Bligh certainly sounded not unreceptive to the idea of an early state election on the state edition of 7 30 last night. Today, the Premier has been developing her theme that an unrepresentative and unelected party machine outside Parliament has created the conditions for a farce within the House, and seriously undermined Westminster democracy. She’s also been reiterating her claim that Newman is driven by ambition alone, leaving the Brisbane flood recovery when his constituents would most expect leadership.
As anticipated, today’s Question Time was rowdy.
Less widely commented on was the fact that Maroochydore MP and LNP frontbencher, Fiona Simpson, challenged Jeff Seeney for the ‘caretaker’ role of Leader of the Opposition last night, and it’s said received 13 votes in the party room of 32. Another report on the background to the Newman coup confirms my suspicion, expressed yesterday, that the push was orchestrated by a combination of ex-Santoro faction Liberals around Tim Nicholls and the extreme hick faction of the ex-Nats, including Seeney himself.
The question for the Premier is whether she moves quickly to capitalise on the disunity and disarray of the LNP, or waits for the tensions between the supposedly complementary roles of Jeff Seeney as ‘interim opposition leader’ and Campbell Newman as ‘election team leader’ to become entrenched. There is a chance that the LNP may be able to simultaneously create an impression of chaos in Parliament and allow Newman to appear apolitical and ‘presidential’ outside. His ‘Can Do’ Brisbane City Council campaigns, after all, always heavily played down his partisan affiliation.
Then there is the factor that, while the LNP may claim they are ready to fight a state election at any time, it’s highly unlikely that Campbell Newman has done much groundwork in Ashgrove. (And it’s interesting to observe LNP ‘insiders’ being quoted as saying he declined to run for the more marginal Brisbane Central, held by Grace Grace, in which he actually lives, because his decisions on the structure of rates on apartments and other controversial local issues make him a toxic candidate there).
Labor may also wish to go to the polls before a state budget which is widely anticipated to be difficult. Floods aside, there are stories all round the public service of claw backs of funding imposed before the end of this financial year, and little room to move in funding election goodies. Having Graham Quirk in his infancy as Newman’s replacement as Lord Mayor may also highlight the implications of Newman’s desertion. It’s interesting, too, that Newman’s first impulse as a state leader is to talk about transport issues. Many Brisbane residents would be hard pressed to associate him with anything else other than tunnels, and the LNP is still widely regarded as a policy free zone in the state arena.
If Labor does decide to fire the starting gun, May 7 might be the date. It’s the first Saturday after school and university holidays and long weekends which would leave enough time for a campaign.
Update: And Newspoll comes in with a three month aggregate poll showing Labor ahead 52-48 on the 2PP in Queensland.
She probably will go because, like the ranga, she is honest.
ALP calling out party workers for community stalls etc this weekend in Ashgrove.
Legacy Way (aka the Toowong-to-ICB tunnel) was meant to be named in honour of the diggers. So it’s ironic and a little repulsive that the council is still thinking of demolishing part of Anzac Park for the construction car park.
That I’d like to see – no irony intended at all.
And now I can see why Newman isn’t running for Mount Coot-tha.
An early election would be a tactically silly idea. Not only are there obvious penalties for governments seen as being opprtunistic in their timing — most recently Colin Barnett was certainly a beneficiary of Carpenter’s move in WA — but an early election pretty much denies the public any time to consider how it would work, and whether it’s a good idea, making the election a referendum on bright shiny new ideas or the ALP.
The stuff Anna Bligh apparently did well — the crisis management needs to be recalled when her flood report comes out in January. She needs to spend time being premier without a credible opposition leader and not break her promise not to go early.
If she’s half smart, she will resist the temptation to go early and declare that she’s got far too much important work to do to be bothering about elections.
Down and out:also the Go-Between bridge is not that popular round here either.
also, I agree with Fran’s comment. Much more sensible I think to let him stew in his own juice for a while. one you get him off the council, what’s his platform?
I’m not too fussed by the Go-Between bridge’s existence (hell sometimes I even see cars on it). However (and maybe I’m just being petty myself), the pettiness shown in Newman’s removal of the “s” strikes me as reason enough for voting Newman out.
Bligh is right to express horror at what is happening here. Newman is going to, as I understand it, preside over Opposition caucus meetings. I can’t ever recall a parliamentary party being led by a non-member. Labor’s organisation used to claim the privilege of setting policy, but never challenged caucus’s authority like this. This is an extraordinary challenge to the sovereignty of parliament. In treating parliament with contempt they’re thumbing their collective noses at the whole system.
I agree though that an early election shouldn’t be contemplated. Bligh has so recently ruled it out, the breach of faith would itself become a major issue. Further, Seeney will quickly make a fool of himself. Finessing isn’t in his armoury of skills.
I doubt whether Newman is particularly highly regarded in Ashgrove, either. The main commuter routes out of the electorate are Waterworks Rd and Kelvin Grove Rd, both of which remain peak hour parking lots. The tunnels haven’t benefitted Ashgrove residents much. The under-use of the Go-Between Bridge – wholly owned by the BCC – is widely noticed.
Brisbane turns on its mayors with regularity, and in my intuition, Newman has reached his use-by date.
I very much agree with Kim’s analysis.
@Fran, Tyro Rex, Hal9000 – I think Bligh should go early because:
(a) The carry on by the LNP really does pose serious challenges to democracy and constitutionalism; as Hal9000 says, Bligh is right to be horrified. And this nonsense should be stopped in its tracks, if possible – democratic conventions, institutions and habits are still poorly entrenched in Queensland, and this is bad;
(b) Labor still has a lot of residual unpopularity/tiredness to contend with: it may be wise to strike while the iron is hot;
(c) Bligh is right to say that the circumstances aren’t of her making, and I think Peter Beattie demonstrated that there can be little penalty for going early in Queensland if you have a good reason (and Bligh has a much better one than Beattie ever had);
(d) Campbell Newman is clearly going to politicise the flood recovery, so there’s a case Bligh could make that it’s best to clear the decks politically to enable the right steps to be taken in reconstruction.
Another sprinkle of history, the last Lord Mayor of Brisbane to go on to win a State or Federal Seat was Sir John Chandler, Mayor 1940 – 52, and Member for Hamilton 1943-47. Chandler, owner of the well-known eponymous electrical appliances chain, was elected as an independant, then founded the Qld People’s Party by taking over the Qld UAP and was leader until 1946. The QPP then became the Qld Branch of the Liberal Party in 1948.
d
Bligh has a comfortable majority and doesn’t have to go to the electorate until next year. There is no question of needing a mandate to get on with the flood works and no real question re her right to bring in a tough budget to help pay for it all.
From a voters point of view all an early election will do is delay the flood recovery. A state election is not going to solve any city council problems.
In some ways Campbell is on a lose lose if he is left to stew for 12 months. If the council gets into a mess will have deserted the council in its time of need. If it works well it suggests that he was not as crucial as he likes to claim. The council worked well under Soorley and Quinn before him so one would expect the underlying systems to keep it on track until the next election.
Newman got into power with a promise to sort out congestion and a tunnel plan to help sort it out. Congestion has got worse despite the tunnel and bridge and the ratepayers look like carrying the big debts he has left behind.
Let him stew while getting on with the big job at hand seems both good government and good politics.
Bad idea for Bligh to go in May (although I wouldn’t rule it out – governments have a way of calling stupid early elections). However, I think she’s be better off going late this year than waiting until 2012.
That way she would have more of the glow of the flood handling left, wouldn’t look opportunistic, would avoid clashing with the local government elections (particularly now Labor has a chance to win BCC) but would still leave plenty of time for the Newham/Seeny double act to fall apart.
Update: And Newspoll comes in with a three month aggregate poll showing Labor ahead 52-48 on the 2PP in Queensland.
I think I get where everyone is coming from on this ‘constitutional crisis’ that the LNP has dragged us into, It is certainly by no means the ‘done thing’ and it does look unpropitious at first glance, but practically do we really honestly believe that democracy is under attack here?
Literally no decision that Cambell will make from now until the election will be imposed on the electorate unless he wins both his seat and government. Meaning like all choices made by elected representatives, his will face the voters as well.
You could argue that parliamentary voting strategies, committee representation or question time being controlled by Cambell is a bit disrespectful to the system, but considering that so much of that material is sanitised by non-elected head office machine men it still seems tenuous.
Ok, maybe I am missing something, feel free to correct me, but I just don’t see this the same way. I completely agree however that the arrangement is a tactical mess that will only cause more dramas for a party that struggles with its leadership and identity.
Yes.
The opposition has an integral role to play in the functioning of a parliamentary democracy.
Campbell Newman has zero legitimacy to exercise the constitutional and parliamentary role of Leader of the Opposition. Unelected to any position in state politics; installed by unelected party bosses. The actual elected representatives of the people, in making decisions on legislation and parliamentary business, are being dictated to from figures who have never submitted themselves – for this parliamentary term – to the judgement of the state electorate.
It is serious.
As I said, yesterday, just wait till the new unelected alternative premier introduces Brisbane to their new unelected mayor.
Larfs!
Kim,
I usually love your stuff, it’s always a good read. But I just don’t agree to the same extent. I’m going to have a go at explaining my position, but your more then welcome to disagree.
“Campbell Newman has zero legitimacy to exercise the constitutional and parliamentary role of Leader of the Opposition.”
Your right, he doesnt. Hence why the LNP has appointed a caretaker Opposition leader to that role.
It’s certainly not ideal, but assuming they wanted Cambell to be leader in the next term there options are a bit tied. Having said that, he really shoudn’t have much say in current parlimentry affairs. If I were the strategist, I would be working on a spokesman/campaigner role for Newman and leave Seeney (I probably wouldn’t have chose him, by the way) to lead parlientary business for the remaining term. It’s still messy, but at least managable.
As for the unelected and their control over parliment, well I sort of remember hearing lots of people saying the Rudd/Gillard knifing was grubby but certainly not unconstiutional, and there was no doubt that was orchastrated by machine men. Even though they are not direcly relateable, the same theme is there, party mechanics overriding parlimentary control.
I’m with Antony Green here, It’s been done in other systems with similliar backgrounds to ours (Even if the conventions are slightly different), and their arrangements so far are at the very leas following the letter (if not spirit) of the electoral laws and constitution.
I wish they were being more sensible about this, but they aren’t and really, I see the fail just waiting to happen (Honestly, Bligh should wait for the election, this arrangement is going to creak and moan). I really do think we are getting wrapped up anti-democracy accusations mostly because we want to believe the right is anti-democratic when largely it just not the case.
Fran Barlow is spot on, it is not only tactically silly to go early but plays into the ooposition’s hands and tags Anna as an opportunist and unreliable (BLI-AR perhaps!).
Just let the LNP work through this and make their inevitable blunders as the divisions surface between the Nationals and the Liberals (let’s not be distracted,this is not a happy marriage). For instance, after the local government mergers in 2008, the Nationals in this area said that they would roll back the mergers once in office, the Libs were less vocal and the LNP has yet to voice a policy.
The LNP already realise that they went too early on launching Campbell at a time when he has a big job to do in Brisbane but as the inducements being offered for Bruce Flegg to stand aside were leaked they had to move fast to avoid CMC investigations and possible criminal charges (S.87 Qld Criminal Code).
I also think the ALP should wait. If it was Beattie I would say go for it, all he’d have to say was “you know times have changed, I’d be stupid not to run now – and you wouldn’t want a stupid premier would you?”, and then grin cheekily. For Bligh going early cuts against the persona she built up in the floods, and the message that a vote for the ALP is a vote for stability. Plus, you have to give the Newseeney time to demonstrate its unsustainability (the more question time the better); the CM and the Australian don’t look like they’re going to be covering up the LNP’s idiocy.
We’ll just have to agree to differ, PinkyOz.
Some links:
Campbell Newman cries poor: http://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/not-wealthy-newman-appeals-for-cash/story-fn59niix-1226027012825
Jeff Seeney throws his weight around:
http://www.couriermail.com.au/news/queensland/jeff-seeney-warns-lnp-mps-to-put-up-or-get-out-if-they-dont-like-campbell-newman-move/story-e6freoof-1226027046178
Fair enough Kim, to be honest I hope the whole thing is moot anyway (and given the LNP track record it probably will be)
8 years at a real income of $200k and he isn’t wealthy? Good grief, I consider myself to be very comfortable on much less then half that.
I though this was the most damning story. http://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/how-lnp-plotters-brewed-up-a-political-coup/story-fn59niix-1226027046255
A journalist should at least ask Newman if he intends to give McIver the ability to choose public servants.
More than that PinkyOz, a lot of the stories the day before sold Newman as somebody who became tired of merely being rich and doing nothing, and that running for Lord Mayor was a form of noblesse oblige. He has the money.
@ JohnD “The council worked well under Soorley and Quinn before him so one would expect the underlying systems to keep it on track until the next election.”
And … yep. This morning in the CM there’s an article with Quinn and Matic (LNP councillors) saying how well the BCC flood recovery efforts will go without Campbell. The point to be made is that either it goes better without Campbell (his leadership was negative) or it runs the same as it was (his leadership is zero). And if it actually goes worse with him gone (his leadership was a net positive) he’s running away from leading an essential effort at a critical moment.
Any way it goes, he’s not premiership material.
I just hope that Anna Bligh found something a lot deeper within herself during the flood and cyclone crises which has made her a much better person. I think she has.
The privatisation business was obviously shonky and god knows what else lead to her previous unpopularity.
If she has become a better person, more caring about the environment and people, then we should trust that it would continue to shine through for a full term.
I believe that if she goes early it shows that there is no improvement in her personal growth.
She will go early, she won’t be able to helpo herself. As to the attack on democracy – please. Nothing’s changed. The opposition are still a rabble. Bligh has the numbers to turn question time into kindergarten and Newman doesn’t count unless he gets in. A lot of scaremongering here.
Did the Libs do this purely because they are afraid of the way Bligh has performed during and after the floods? After all after Bligh, Newman would have been pretty visible to Queenslanders during that time (at least in Brisbane).