… That’s what one wry commenter at the Brisbane Times suggests the people of Queensland would get if Brisbane Lord Mayor Campbell Newman were to become LNP leader and Premier after next year’s election.
The usual round of LNP leadership speculation, based this time allegedly on private polling, and the party machine throwing its weight around (as was its wont before the Nationals took over the Queensland Liberal Party).
If there’s anything in the Campbell Newman push, I wonder whether his support is mostly coming from people who don’t actually live in Brisbane. After the various tunnel fiascos, various controversies about development, and massive rate rises for people living in apartments (among other things), I’m not at all sure that the “Can Do” brand isn’t a tad shopworn in the metropolis itself or that he’s a shoo in for re-election next year.
It is an interesting indicator, though, of how much the political climate in Queensland has altered post-disaster. With Anna Bligh resurgent, the LNP is reverting to its traditional role of cannabilising itself and thus tossing away a sure path to an elusive victory.
Update: Campbell Newman is taking the plunge into state politics. Apparently he thinks he can be opposition leader without a seat in parliament.
Update: New post.
From what I saw of those polls, I’d say the reverse is true – the LNP are fighting over the spoils. If the ALP can only manage 48% even with Bligh’s post-flood high then they are gone at the next election. LNP’s right just don’t want a member of their left bringing them to power – it sends all the wrong messages. The LNP right have only turned to Newman because they themselves are unelectable scum.
Sorry, meant to say: LNP’s rightwing members just don’t want a member of the LNP left bringing them to power.
I thought the same about Newman in 2008, and he topped 60% of the vote then. I don’t follow the CM or the commercial networks though, has ‘popular’ sentiment shifted?
That said, if the news is correct about the cause of the flood in Brisbane then Newman, and possibly Bligh, will be looking for alternative employment.
Not as far as I know. Last I saw he was also on a post-flood high. I’m sure the tunnel stuff could hurt him eventually, but not right now.
I would have thought Newman would have rated crazy left by LNP standards. Massive effort on green activities such as bikeways, massive expansion of public transport and now setting up a contract for the long term supply of green electricity including a purpose built power station etc. Strong supporter of multiculturalism etc. etc. Newman gets support because he makes things happen. Also not afraid to put up rates to levels required to provide good services.
Not sure how well his approach would work at state level and whether he would get supported but he would certainly have a better chance than JPL.
True, but the Australian came to the conclusion that it was all the Wivenhoe Dam operators’ fault somewhere back in 2006. And Langbroek was the one prominently calling for the dam’s flood mitigation storage to be reduced just before floods occurred – I’m not sure he wants to go there.
That’s two separate x-posts. Grrr.
Regarding what John D said. I partly agree but you’re forgetting two things: a) the LNP right know Langbroek a lot more than they know Newman, which means they hate Langbroek that much more (all credit to Langbroek), and b) to bring an outsider in as opposition leader and then to take him to an election within say..12 months is just asking for a disaster.
I mean look what happened to Flegg. He was a nice new talent who was promoted to opposition leader way too quickly, and now all he’s fit for is bribery material.
Has anyone ever been seen riding one of those bright yellow and heavy bicycles that populate the bicycle racks that are clogging almost every footpath in the Brisbane CBD, courtesy of a BCC fiat?
Well, I don’t know about that Kim, I can’t remember any particularly smooth times for Jim Soorley as mayor and he never looked like being tipped out, mostly on the back of the risk/reward strategy of going for the top job.
Popular councilors (Hinchcliffe for example, often toated as a ALP Mayoral Candidate) are quite comfortable on their current margins, and have to take a huge risk to run for Mayor (mostly because you cant run for both council and Mayor at the same time). New candidates face the problem of trying to get name-recognised in a city as big as brisbane in a few short months, tricky to say the least.
That said, If the LNP are keen to gift the ALP with yet another term, they are welcome to do so. If I were Newman, I would be aiming for 2015 after smoothing out the bumps in the Brisbane administration, if I were that ambitious that is.
Andrew N @ 4, I’ll bet the Weekend Australian hasn’t read the Wivenhoe dam operators account of what happened. I haven’t either as it is said to run to 1000 pages.
I did see what their experts said on TV, however. They said that the BOM got the prediction on how much it would rain badly wrong. On 8 occasions the actual rain was double what BOM predicted, on one occasion it was 10 times.
Funnily enough, I think the rain caused the flood.
For a long time all that Langbroek had to do to get elected was to keep his mouth shut. With Bligh’s resurgence that won’t do it any more. Problem is that every time Langbroek opens his mouth he loses votes. Newman couldn’t do worse.
I disagree Brian (re Langbroek that is) With him leading the LNP is unelectable. He isn’t a leader. They’d do better with Springborg.
I’ll agree they’ve nothing to lose by installing Newman. Almost anybody would do better than Langbroek. Internal ructions within the LNP indicate the membership also believes this.
My opinion: With Langbroek as leader of the LNP, Bligh is going to be continually reelected.
The polling referenced in the Sunday Mail article does not agree with me. It says Bligh is borderline when facing Langbroek. And that against Newman Bligh is gone.
I’m of the belief that the (low) ranking of Langbroek in that poll is influenced by him being out of sight & out of mind. As soon as he starts hitting the airwaves & the public see him in action, his (already low) poll raing will go through the floor & Bligh wins the election.
If they try and pull this, then the lose the City Council and the State elections. Also, no way the Nationals will allow two leaders who are Liberals, and from Brisbane, in a row.
@11 – PinkyOz, David Hinchliffe just fell over the line last time, after an 8.1% swing to the Liberals:
http://www.abc.net.au/elections/brisbane/2008/guide/cent.htm
Mark -
Well, yeah, numbers don’t look fantastic, but there is a demographic change in there leading into areas that were always going to Newman at that election. On the balance you would imagine that would swing back at the next election due to things like the unit rate changes. I would definately say that Labor is still a very safe bet for the Central ward, hence the risk in Hinchcliffe running for Mayor.
Steve -
Exactly how many times do you think it will take Springborg to get the message that the people of Queensland don’t like what he has to offer, even with the ALP government and it’s current worries?
I forgot to say that Hinchliffe has announced his requirement, PinkyOz. Labor has already preselected a candidate for Mayor – Ray Smith:
http://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/queensland/ray-smith-confirmed-as-labor-mayoral-candidate-20101112-17qal.html
Whoops, must have missed the memo.
(I’m guessing you ment retirement?)
Hmmm, unproveable but potentailly shady funding deals with the state government. Yep, Brisbane lord mayoral candidate alright.
Indeed I did, PinkyOz! I’m in a hurry, so haven’t time to google around for the articles, but he expressed a lot of disillusion with Council politics in announcing he wouldn’t be recontesting.
Brian wins the Internet today!
“LNP’s rightwing members just don’t want a member of the LNP left bringing them to power.”
Are you kidding? J-P has always been a member of party’s Right. Santoro stacked the numbers in to secure his preselection in the first place. Ask him about Muslims or Asians. Do a bit of digging and you may even find his real views on some of these topics in the public record. He is gaffe prone too. At a recent Federal Young Lib conference on the coast he made jokes about dealing ecstacy as a fundraising idea…
Nichols is toxic & factionally tainted by Santoro. He has a lot of skeletons in the closet from his time with Allens Arthur Robinson – including an infamous staff christmas party.
Newman is an option if he wants it – which he doesn’t. Look for him to go federal in Ryan after Jane Prentice fills up her frequent flyer card and retires to become mascot of Gardams. The most likely suspect in the short term is Springborg again I’m afraid… Longer term though watch out for David Gibson.
A member of the Liberal’s right, not a member of the LNP’s right. Sorry I should have just said he’s a Liberal and not a Nat. I was trying to pretend that the LNP is an actual party.
Yeah, a bit of a shame, he seemed at least a solid performer. But yeah, I can understand being a little bit fed up with council politics.
Good luck to him I guess.
brisbane times is reporting that newman has called the LNP councillors to a meeting this evening.
http://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/queensland/is-brisbanes-lord-mayor-about-to-go-20110321-1c3le.html
it is, however, a regular meeting, but someone appears to be briefing the press about it.
Funnily enough, AR’s link has quote about an alternative cause of the flood other than the rain.
Just curious, if it’s a dam flood according to the insurers, will flood insurance claims be paid?
I’d always thought Newman would rather go federal than sully his shoes in state politics.
rumbellious, I suspect some of this stuff about people causing the floods is precisely about insurers looking for wriggle room. But OT to this post.
Newman specifically ruled out going federal. Ever.
The latest news about this just sounds insane. Opposition leader from outside parliament? What?
http://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/queensland/newman-to-enter-state-politics-20110321-1c3sz.html
There we have it Newman for premier. I think it’s a mistake that he dropped his nonpartisan persona for the usual Abbott-esque barking.
Bizarre!
I think he’s nuts to try to be oppo leader without a seat. Someone would have to lead in Parliament – the Borg? Every time parliament sits, that person is going to be there on the news in QT, etc. Very messy.
Hmm. Big risk, Big reward?
Your right, very messy, but I bet you that the media will follow Newman like a bad smell regardless of legitimacy.
And no, you just wouldn’t choose the Borg for stand-in, he will take the opportunity to make a power play for the top job (again).
New post: http://larvatusprodeo.net/2011/03/22/tunnels-to-townsville/
Newman should resign right now. It will be difficult for him to maintain a good working relationship with the state government while doubling as defacto state opposition leader.
Newman’s performance as Mayor will also come under closer scrutiny. Wait for the “can get us into debt” campaign. Wait for the “congestion has got much worse despite the promises” campaign. Then there is the “Newman was taking all the credit for Labor efforts” It could go on and on.
In the mean-time pressure will mount on Flegg to step aside.
Ok, please continue comments here:
http://larvatusprodeo.net/2011/03/22/tunnels-to-townsville/
Crazy messy. An unforced hail Mary pass considering the polls. Bligh just has to remind voters that they don’t know who they’re electing, and the LNP members that the LNP party thinks they’re all losers. Newman better bring in his own Newman army of first-timers otherwise he’s going to have no real base.