I’m borrowing one of the Brisbane Times‘ commenters’ bon mots again to encapsulate the latest twist in the endless weirdness that is Pineapple Party politics in Queensland.
Brisbane Lord Mayor Campbell Newman has announced that he wants to be LNP leader, but the party machine has been unable to elbow out any of the sitting state MPs to force a by-election. So apparently he’s going to contest the seat of Ashgrove at the election, but offer himself as leader when he wins pre-selection.
How does this make any sense?
The leadership of the opposition is a Parliamentary position. Newman would be LNP leader, but someone else would have to front Question Time, take the lead in debates on legislation, and so on. Who would that be? Not John-Paul Langbroek. The Borg? Tim Nicholls? Poor old Bruce Flegg? Jeff Seeney? Whoever it was would inevitably get the media attention when Parliament sits, and the LNP caucus still contains a host of former National and Liberal leaders with continuing ambitions to be Premier.
Nor is Kate Jones’ seat of Ashgrove necessarily all that winnable.
And could not Newman be accused of departing the Mayoralty just when it gets hard: when it’s about flood reconstruction not constant tunneling? Where does it leave his Council colleagues in the election that will be held in March next year?
It’s hard to escape the conclusion that the LNP is reverting to form: whenever it looks like government won’t just fall into their laps, they descend into farcical infighting.
NB: Previous discussion on LP is here.
Update: So it seems Jeff Seeney will be Opposition Leader and Campbell Newman will be Alternative Premier. Good luck with that one, folks. I put Seeney in the post as one of the stand-ins as a joke: last time he led the opposition, he made Lawrence Springborg look positively urbane. The government has already started making hay with the hayseed revival in State Parliament, and it looks like this is payback by the Nationals dominated party machine, the extreme hick faction of the Nats (disappointed by the relegation of eternal MPs like Vaughan Johnson the the backbench) in alliance with Campbell Newman and the ex-Santoro Tim Nicholls crew. The range of questions this arrangement raises have only just begun being canvassed: for instance, will Seeney have a shadow portfolio as well as being Opposition Leader? How would the ministry be composed, who would be Deputy Premier? Basically, it makes the LNP the issue all the way to polling day.
It also substantially changes the dynamics of the Brisbane City Council election next March.
Elsewhere: Analysis from Andrew Bartlett and Antony Green, and John Quiggin.
Update: Anna Bligh has played the early election threat card:
“We have a job to do this year – it is to rebuild our state. It is impossible, frankly, to imagine how we are going to do that with a capital city now being abandoned by the mayor and being left leaderless.”
The Premier said the LNP was “now completely in the hands of an unelected, unrepresentative, unaccountable group of people” outside of the Parliament, which risked turning Queensland politics into a “dysfunctional farce”.
Ms Bligh said Brisbane Lord Mayor Campbell Newman’s decision to run for state politics, and ultimately assume the Liberal National Party leadership, was a betrayal.
“(He) has decided to cut and run when people needed him most,” Ms Bligh told reporters.
“What I say to the people of Queensland is I will never cut and run when you need me.
“Campbell Newman has decided today to abandon the city of Brisbane, a city that’s been devastated by its worst natural disaster.
“This is not someone with the character, in my view, required for the job of leadership.”
“What we’ve seen today is the lord mayor of our capital city abandon it.”
Asked if she would still rule out an election this year, Ms Bligh said: “Today I can’t be in the business of ruling anything in or out”.
“What we’ve seen today, in my view, is a direct attempt to undermine the parliamentary democracy of Queensland.
“Our parliament is now at risk of descending into a dysfunctional farce courtesy of the Liberal and National Party of Queensland.”
Update: Antony Green has now found an 1898 New South Wales precedent.
Update: New post.
I’d forgotten how much fun watching the other side self destruct was.
Yep!
This is truly amazing – just when you thought the LNP coudn’t find another way to create confusion within the party they have gone and done it – it’s spectacular.
They love him in Ashgrove. It’s the only place that actually benefitted from his bloody tunnels.
Thank you Queensland, you make NSW politics seem an oasis of normalcy and good sense.
Looks like JPL will stand aside.
@6: what the…. Langbroek AND Springborg stand down. So the new leader will be…?
d
Jones on 57%. Newman living outside the electorate. Won’t be easy.
Kate Jones is a popular and capable local member.
The LNP need to clarify who’ll be the leader of the opposition in the parliament in the for the next year until the election. They also need to clarify just now Newman plans to introduce policy to his parliamentary party with no guarantee of being able to carry it in his caucus – that he doesn’t sit in. They also need to outline exactly who will be premier if they win a majority at the next election but Newman doesn’t get Ashgrove.
There are some words around town that Brisbane City Council is in (very) dire financial straits; and hit those straits long before the flood. Certainly it would be hard IMHO to find anything that Can Do Campbell has actually….done….that is not a total stuff up. So moving on to be leader of the LNP which is also a total stuff up makes some kind of twisted sense. Oh, I forgot – the Liberals and the Nationals are so much “better at economic management” – so I know it’s hard to believe that a an entire city could lose so much money with a Liberal Lord Mayor..but…there you go.
Holy shit, Langbroek’s resigned: http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2011/03/22/3170308.htm
What are his chances in Ashgrove, Brisbaneros?
Lefty E, Labor has a margin of 7.1% in Ashgrove from the 2009 election, and Kate Jones was quite successful in containng the local anti-swing from 2006 to under 1%. Unless Labor’s overall vote reverts to pre-flood levels it won’t be a lay-down misere for him.
I’m hanging out for a win for campbell in ashgrove on a background of ALP victory.
Lefty,
Not an easy task, certainly it’s one of his better areas in the BCC Elections, but it’s a 7.1% margin, got to wonder.
And for all of you guys saying that the ABC is turning into a Liberal mouthpiece, have a look at this
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2011/03/22/3170308.htm
It’s slightly hyperbolic, though not too far off the mark. So not so much an opposition talking point news service but a “Who can say/do the most outrageous thing” news service.
(Though there is a wonderfully charming line from Paul Lucas in that article, can we please step off the Middle East bashing for a second)
Lefty E, I’d say his chances in Ashgrove are not promising. Kate Jones is a good local member and well liked in the branches and the community. I will most certainly volunteer for her campaign next year now (I’m in a nearby branch if I can be bothered to renew my membership this year); I’m sure many ALP members will delight to work for Kate against Newman.
He’s cynically exploiting his exposure after the floods. This comes after the LNP made a song and dance about Bligh forcing an early election due to her poll bounce; which was just their usual demented gibbering while they were planning the exact thing they facetiously accused the ALP of doing. Bligh should broadside him on this every occassion from here to the election. I’d say he’s avoiding taking on Andrew Fraser in Mt Coot-tha for that very reason (flood affected suburbs).
He’s also probably getting in before the “Legacy Way” becomes a lead-weight legacy hanging round the BCC’s financial neck.
BTW last week I got a a very glossy brochure off the council spruiking the benefits of whatever it is the Glorious Mayor has done for Our Brisbane. Not a coincidence, I’d say.
I can see the campaign now – Anna Bligh: Doing the hard yards, fixing Qld after a summer of natural disasters “getting QLD working”. Campbell Newman: at the beck and call of the faceless men of the Nationals, leaving Brisbane in the lurch, tilting at windmills.
Tyro,
I agree wit you on the liklyhood of a win, but come off it, both sides of politics have tried to capitalise on the floods to varying degrees of success.
Thant said, exactly how is the link being drawn between the floods, Newman and the LNP leadership? If anything it has more to do with the Rights continued self-doubt and infighting and the need for strong leadership, not any so called ‘Flood Bounce’
NOT the Borg – it seems that he is as disgusted as anyone by all the factional manouverings. So it looks as though the LNP won’t have a leader until the next election – what a great plan that is!
As for Caaaampbell’s chances in Ashgrove – I believe that Kate Jones will rip him a new one. Go Katie!!!
John Clarke and Brian Dawes must be shaking their heads and remarking to each other that had they made this up, no one would have believed it.
How popular is he outside of Brisbane?
Update: So it seems Jeff Seeney will be Opposition Leader and Campbell Newman will be Alternative Premier. Good luck with that one, folks. I put Seeney in the post as one of the stand-ins as a joke: last time he led the opposition, he made Lawrence Springborg look positively urbane. The government has already started making hay with the hayseed revival in State Parliament, and it looks like this is payback by the Nationals dominated party machine, the extreme hick faction of the Nats (disappointed by the relegation of eternal MPs like Vaughan Johnson the the backbench) in alliance with Campbell Newman and the ex-Santoro Tim Nicholls crew. The range of questions this arrangement raises have only just begun being canvassed: for instance, will Seeney have a shadow portfolio as well as being Opposition Leader? How would the ministry be composed, who would be Deputy Premier? Basically, it makes the LNP the issue all the way to polling day.
It also substantially changes the dynamics of the Brisbane City Council election next March.
Elsewhere: Analysis from Andrew Bartlett and Antony Green, and John Quiggin.
@21 – Sam, who knows? How popular is Clover Moore in Dubbo? How popular is Robert Doyle in Bendigo? Probably most people outside Brisbane haven’t spent too much time thinking about Campbell Newman.
How popular is Robert Doyle in Bendigo?
Not much, when he was leader of the opposition.
Hopefully Bligh won’t call an early election, and she doubles, no buggar that, triples Parliamentary sitting time between now and the election.
Well, Sam, my point is that Campbell Newman has never been in state politics, and therefore there’s no real reason for anyone outside Brisbane to have formed much of an opinion of him.
@25
Update: Anna Bligh has played the early election threat card:
That seems to be the big problem with this whole strategy. Unless Can-do is running in a seat that it is obvious that he will win – and this appears to be very much not the case – the LNP has to go to the election with uncertainty about their proposed Premier. Not a good look, and very easy to attack, I would have thought.
Hmm, if they were serious they’d jigger up a bye-election in a safe seat, surely?
From whats being said here, its a bit of a gamble that the putative leader would even end up elected.
As has been said often here – never underestimate the QLD LNP’s capacity to screw the pooch.
So, precedents regarding the leader, or leader-presumptive of a political party not holding a seat?
John Gorton for a few weeks in February 1968, but that barely counts.
Similarly Alec Douglas Home was British PM without being a parliamentarian for a few weeks in October-November 1963.
Arthur Henderson remained leader of the British Labour Party for a year after the 1931 election at which he lost his seat.
Bruce Beetham similarly remained leader of NZs Social Credit Party cum Democratic Party for a bit over a year after losing his seat at the 1984 election.
Jack Layton was leader of the NDP in Canada for a year and a half before entering parliament at the 2004 election.
Similarly Mackenzie King was elected leader of the Canadian Liberal Party in 1919 before he had been able to return to Parliament, having failed to do so at the 1917 election.
Even earlier, John MacDonald lost his seat in the 1878 Canadian election that was won by his conservative party, but he never even left parliament – the ridings had staggered elections and he shifted to one that was yet to have its election.
Others?
(Antony also has John Turner.)
John Gorton for a few weeks in February 1968, but that barely counts.
Gorton was a Senator, so at least he was in the parliament.
Antony Green points out it’s not an uncommon practice in Canada on his blog – the link is in the OP.
Hmm, if they were serious they’d jigger up a bye-election in a safe seat, surely?
An excellent point.
Interviewer: “Mr Newman, if your putative parliamentary colleagues have so much confidence in you, why is it that none is prepared to give up their seat for you right away?”
CN: “Carn the Broncos”.
I see Campbell plans to campaign on transport in his new gig. I wonder if he’ll be extolling the wonders of the Clem7 tunnel now that the company that runs it is in receivership…
Anna lied her way to victory at the last election. She launched a privatization program, scrapped a petrol levy and has overseen numerous failures of administration Her government doesn’t deserve another term. We have a presidential political system and have had for the past decade even if everyone hasn’t caught up with this fact. Can anyone recall anyone other than the leaders getting media time during the last election campaigns? Most people couldnt name 3 state ministers if asked apart from the ones that are incompetent and who have stuffed up. Lucas, Robertson etc. Yes this is bizarre, high risk, shows desperation in the LNP. But somehow it may just work. No one listens to state parliament or cares what goes on there. If a pseudo opposition leader is there it doesn’t affect the running of parliament. Anna has the numbers and the opposition is irrelevant. What matters is what happens in the media and what the general public and especially the disinterested swinging voters think. I would suggest that they would be positively inclined to Campbell Newman. Anna also better not run too soon to the polls. Alan carpenter was crucified when he tried to take advantage of Colin garnered unexpected return to power. Yes this is crazy brave on behalf of Newman. Getting an 8% swing is very very hard and he could win an election for the LNPand not get a seat himself. Yes it can fall apart spectacularly. But JPL and the Borg could have gone down fighting but have not although obviously upset. It’s going to be a fun next year in QLD.
Gorton was a Senator when elected, but resigned his Senate seat in order to contest the by-election in the lower house, so for a few weeks he was PM and party leader but neither senator nor MP.
Kim @34
That the company running the Clem 7 tunnel has gone into receivership is hardly a criticism of Newman. The tunnel isn’t going anywhere; the people of Brisbane still get to use the tunnel. The shareholders of the company will take a haircut, and so might the company’s bankers. Tough luck for them. Someone else will buy the tunnel at a fire sale price and that will be that.
True.
Also true that it was in my post too
I was actually curious if there were any state-level Aus precedents. Anyone?
State level precedents: I am pretty sure that Neville Wran was an MLC when he challenged and beat Pat Hills for the NSW Labor Party leadership after the 1973 state election and then won the seat of Bass Hill in a bye-election with it being conveniently vacated.
(Although it is possible that Wran moved into the lower house at the 1973 election. It should be easy to find out which.)
I think that’s right about Wran being an MLC, but then, that’s an actual state parliamentarian position, and he moved quickly to the lower house.
@38 – Martin – NSW in 1898, according to Antony Green in a new post.
http://blogs.abc.net.au/antonygreen/2011/03/who-was-the-last-opposition-leader-to-not-be-in-the-lower-house.html
Sorry I missed the link in a quick skim of your earlier comment!
Sam @37 – it’s a public private partnership, and there is still doubt about risk being born by the BCC. Newman was also responsible for pushing the idea, and the tender process, and it is part of his wacky network of tunnels, some of which are publicly financed. He was certainly claiming a stack of credit for it when it opened – before it turned into a white elephant.
On Wran again, he was a lower house member for 2 and a half years before Labor won the 1976 election.
Wran definitely seems to have moved to the lower house at the 1973 election. There are some funny dates given, confused I suspect by Wran having been Leader of the Opposition in the Upper House, but it would seem that he did not become LotO before the election at which he became an MLA.
On that note I would observe that Cam’s tilt may not be good for the LNP, it may not be good for stability in Qld politics, but what a boon it’s already been for pseph-nerdery! (Imagine AG putting two non-NSW posts up just days before the election…)
So Quincelanders, how does Seeney rate? Would a “Don’t make this man the accidental Premier” campaign have legs?
The real problem with the toll tunnels and bridge are that they function as a way for the affluent to avoid the congestion that others can’t afford to avoid. However, because the tunnels have been a financial disaster rates in general will have to be increased to pay for this subsidy to the affluent.
It is a bit hard to see how Bligh can try and justify an early state election by saying
Having a state election isn’t going to solve this problem and it is a bit hard to say how well the lord mayor voted in by the council as soon as Campbell resigns will perform.
The cartoonists should have some fun showing Newman ‘tunnelling’ into his proposed next job.
True: the Clem 7 tunnel seems to be under some sort of arrangement that is not supposed to be a financial burden to Brisbane ratepayers (somehow one doesn’t feel completely assured), but the thing is Newman is mad keen on tunnels and wants/plans for the Council to fund more of them. Brisbane’s drivers just don’t seem keen on paying to use them.
There I was thinking I should check some SAf precedents when I discover that the *current* Leader of the Party in Opposition, Helen Zille is not Leader of the Opposition in the National Assembly.
Oh, and I’ll stop now but in the 1895 UK election both the PM and the Opposition Leader were Lords.
Martin B, we’ve seen Seeney before. He staged a coup against the Borg in ’06 and was himself succeeded by the Borg again. He’s a throwback to the Joh Nationals – a rural bovver boy. The Borg was at least able to pose pretty convincingly as a bloke who had at heart what he took to be the interests of Queenslanders. Seeney is personally loathed by Labor people and has the reputation of a man whose word is worthless. I get the feeling there’s plenty on his own side who detest him too, one of whom is the stubbornly incumbent Dr Flegg in the seat where I live.
Bligh and Fraser are going to rip Seeney to shreds in Parliament, but I suspect this is part of the devilish Campbell plot. If Seeney can cause uproar in Parliament, and I’m sure he’s well capable of it, this will taint the reputation of the Government too. Newman can sit serenely outside the fray, issuing media releases and doing media stunts – an art form in which he’s a precocious genius in the Beattie mold. The LNP caucus has apparently agreed to recognise Newman as its leader whenever he deigns to attend, so he can steer through any policies he wants to pursue.
No needs for tunnels to Townsville.
An election promise of upgrading of the Bruce Highway to a safe decent all weather road to Townsville, and beyond that to Cairns, would win just about very vote north of Bundaberg.
And it should have been done 20 years ago.
But only 30% of the population lives north of Bundaberg. What do the other 70% really care about what is important to us?
Is the public perception that way?
“On Saturday you have a clear choice.
Three years of strong leadership from Anna Bligh.
Or this man as Premier [Cam]
Unless you end up electing *this* man as Premier. [Seeney]
Or maybe he will want to be leader again. [JPL] Or him. [Borg]
Do you know who you are really voting for?
Only Anna Bligh and Labor can promise strong, stable leadership.”
Yep. It really is a dog of a plan from the LNP!
You’re probably right Lefty E. But what Liam said:
Let’s see how this plays out.
I’ve got a lot of time for the Queensland electorate making sense of what is important to them and making their judgments on it.
Ok, so except for “dying in a fire”, exactly what strategy would any of you have suggested? Sure the LNP dumps another leader before a state poll, but honestly, does anyone truely believe that Langbroek was going to lead them to a win?
Anna Bligh was given just about the best political gift possible, a chance to show true leadership, and she took it. It’s not taking political advantage of the suffering caused by the floods per se, but it certainly has the same effect. The LNP actually probably took the right step, just in a completely idiotic way that will surely leave them scrambling for creditability. But honestly, what would you have them do?
If you want to talk about cynical abuse of power, and “dysfunctional farces” wait until an early election is called.
PinkyOz, Blight showing leadership, and actually leading the State government’s response to the flood disaster, is not taking political advantage in anyway as you state.
I’d at least expect Campbell to be in parliament first. He’s entitled to run for it. But this arse-about jiggery-pokery with him being “leader” in waiting before he’s spent a single second in the parliament is a mockery of the Westminster tradition. It is a most offensive, cynical and hypocritical farce. It deserves nothing but the scorn it is apparently reaping.
Forgive my cynicism as to your motives in bringing up this game of false equivalence between the two. There is no equivalence to each side’s reaction. The premier is entitled to call the election when she wants. That’s the constitution. Why should Bligh lock herself into a full term if the LNP want to play a cynical game in which they clearly and publicly despise the democratic process itself?
It’s a joke, a sick joke, it shows the LNP as nothing but a pack of scoundrels willing to say and do anything to win the prize.
This is unmitigated stupidity.
Yes, I think he is a potential Premier.
But they are fucking nus for doing this.
Sort out a solid seat for a quality candidate like him. He then says when asked about Leadership aspirations that you shouldn’t put the cart before the horse and lets get the election over first.
It isn’t rocket surgery.
I have to say that the “playing politics” stuff from both sides is a load of steaming cow poo.
Everything is politics. The decisions not to exploit situations for political gain is political. It just depends on how slick you are with using the situation and whether you look like a dick doing it or can gain a benefit.
Yes, I think it does have legs and I agree with what Hal9000 said @ 50.
Yes I do think the public would see it that way.
Seeney is not very popular with his own mob. He’s in a very safe seat, which is just as well for him because he’s upset his own electorate by publicly favouring coal miners over farmers. A good independent could knock him off, but there doesn’t seem to be one forthcoming.
Langbroek and Springborg look as though they’ve been flensed. Clearly LNP president McIver set the whole thing up with Seeney and Tim Nichols. Seeney going into the press conference at 10.30 where Newman made the announcement said to the reporter “I’ll answer all your questions at my press conference at 12.”
Kate Jones is a hard-working local member (my electorate) and won’t be easy to knock off. I reckon Newman’s thinking is that if he can take her seat the swing will be big enough for an LNP victory. He doesn’t want to hang around in opposition.
Bligh’s best move may be to go straight to an election.
Yes. That really is a damning assessment of the Newman tilt.
Now that the initial stun has worn off, Im really taken with the overall nutty taste of this.
So, basically, they’ll be leaving it to Ashgrove residents to decide who’s Premier, in the event the LNP wins? Ace! I wonder if they mind losing a mayor in the deal. I like the bizarre high stakes calculus here, viz, ‘hey, if we do it this way, we get a solid performer PLUS a marginal seat!’.
It would seem no one wanted to ante up a safey, and he’s paying a risk premium for the gamble rights.
Personally, I can’t wait for the unelected alternative premier to introduce the new unelected Mayor.
Looking at all this from down here in Armidale, the question occurs to me of these fuys even know how to run a political party. A good stint with the lads from Sussex street would at least teach thewm how to run a political party. Or maybe thry should talk to O’Farrell who has jept his mad XZtan right under control for four years.
I’m going up tje cotner shop tomorrow to get a week’s supply of Jaffas.(After nedt Saturday night I’ll probably need the sugar hit.
@60 – I think Bligh would be mulling over Carpenter’s decision to pull the trigger with a new oposition leader in play.
Peter Beattie’s grab.
“Tunnels” Newman will either bore his way to the top or to the bottom of a deep political hole.
I think Bligh holds more trumps: election timing, time to observe how the NLP gaggle waddle-in behind their strutting new “election leader”,(Seeney’s phrase).
Bligh, well experinced in parliamentary procedure, will have a trick or two up her sleeve to emphasize the farce of an absent leader.
Bligh hammered home the fact on 7:30 that Tunnels turned his back on the people of the city of Brisbane just when they needed him most. For naught but his raw, stratospheric ambition. My guess is that this point alone is going to cost Campbell’s group a lot of soup in Bne marginals.
Seems the Qld LNP have taken a lead from Federal Labor in that dastardly dance, the Leadership Shuffle. Funny old world. If the State election is tight, QLDers could end up with a hung parliament.
Tyro,
All in all, I think we agree on the gist of all this, Anna Bligh is looking like a leader and the LNP is not playing the cards it has very well. But ‘Mockery of the Westminster tradition’ and ‘despise the democratic process itself’? That could be a bit emotive.
There is a difference between our sense of fair play and the desire of political parties to win office. The LNP CAN topple a leader in parliament and say that on the election of this person, he will be leader, for now we are appointing this person and Anna Bligh CAN call an early election. The question is whether it is fair/right to do those things. We call these moves cynical because they are designed to deceive, to trick the electorate into thinking they are important when they are just simply not.
The rules haven’t suddenly changed because of this. If the LNP wants to run a Newman/Seeney ticket at the next election they are welcome to (Regardless of how utterly silly it is) and Bligh is within her right to call an early election (which may be in her own best interests, not the state’s) and I dare say democracy will survive both of those cynical and politically motivated actions.
PS.
The flood thing is a bit loaded, but yeah I agree she didn’t take advantage (As I said the first time). But she certainly got an advantage without changing a single unpopular policy or decision.
The LNP are despearte not to be one of the only states to miss out on the swing to conservative government and with no effective leadership structure they are taking desperate measures to position themsleves as a viable alternative at the next election. Only problem is that Newman is being seen as more interested in promoting his own political ambitions at a time when he should be totally focused on the rebuilding of Brisbane; very bad timing.
It seems that the deal to encourage Flegg to abandon his Moggill seat, in favour of Newman, with the promise of a sinecure as Queensland rep. in London should LNP win office came unstuck when it was leaked and the ‘inducements’ to Flegg loomed as a possible criminal act in line with the corruption of Gordon Nuttall.
http://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/capital-circle/erty45/story-fn59nqgy-1226026468524
“nation watches in amazement” at “Tony Abbott’s “people’s revolt”"
So, it’s all going like clockwork, this Joh-vial revolt of the masses. It’s not really a back-stabbing shitstorm as it first appears.
For God’s sake, conservitards, your diseased imaginings just do not translate well to reality.
I just posted this over at Quiggin’s, but it seems to fit here too:
I’ve said for quite some time that the best thing the Bligh government has going for it is the shambolic Opposition, but these latest shenanigans are remarkable even for the LNP. I suspect it will get worse for them once the apparently dire financial straits of Campbell’s Brisbane City Council come to light…
While I’m quite enjoying the schadenfreude, this development underlines the problem with Queensland’s version of ‘democracy’. No upper house, optional preferential voting, single member electorates and a bumbling excuse for an Opposition all add up to the Government being able to do what it likes and still get away with it.
I find the Qld ALP government appallingly ‘conservative’ politically – but the way the electoral system is set up it is far more difficult for e.g. the Greens to be elected to parliament than in other States. I think we’re stuck with Bligh for at least another term, simply because there is no prospect of a viable Opposition currently or in the forseeable future.
This all has a ‘Joh for PM’ feel to it.
Will they whip up some ‘Cam for Prem’ bumper stickers?
You’ve all missed the devilish plan. This could save Tony Abbott’s chances of becoming PM.
Bear with me. Over the last 30 years one of the strongest patterns in Australian elections are backlashes against unpopular state governments at federal elections and vice versa. The unpopularity of NSW and QLD Labor state governments was a huge part of what got Abbott so close last time.
By 2013 NSW Labor will be long gone, and while O’Farrell may still be popular, there won’t be the same anti-Labor feeling there. In Queensland there was a real danger of the LNP winning, and given the dearth of talent making themselves very unpopular very fast.
This way one of two things happens. Either the whole plan self-destructs and Labor is re-elected. By 2013 they’ll be toxic to a ferocious degree, giving Abbott even more seats in Qld. Alternatively, the whole thing works and Newnham becomes premier. He’ll be more competent than anything else on offer, and will probably still be popular in two years time. Either way, Abbott wins.
Only one thing could go wrong – if the LNP wins the election, but Newnham doesn’t win a seat. Then they’re really in trouble.
Update: New post.
Well it can’t make that rabble of an opposition any worse. They are pathetic. It could work for them.