Last Wednesday in a speech to the AsiaLink and Asia Society Lunch in Melbourne Julia Gillard (transcript here) announced that the government has commissioned a White Paper on Australia in the Asian Century. Former Secretary of the Treasury, Dr Ken Henry AC, will lead the project. The paper will be informed by extensive public consultation and will be released during the middle of 2012. Gillard said:
we are now seeing the most profound rebalancing of global wealth and power in the period since the United States emerged as a major power in the world.
A national blueprint for Australia at a time of transformative economic growth and change in Asia will help Australia navigate the Asian century to seize the opportunities it offers and to meet the challenges it poses.
According to the Herald Sun
Foreign policy expert Hugh White described the speech as one of the most significant foreign policy initiatives in a decade.
It’s important to note that Gillard was not just concerned with cashing in on Asian growth. She was concerned about the negative effects of the resources boom on other sectors of our patchwork economy. She was concerned about strengthening regional relationships while maintaining our traditional relationships at the same time. China’s growth and potential is spectacular, but it’s not just about China. India and Indonesia are large emerging economies and there is great dynamism across the region.
On her expectations of the White Paper Gillard said:
Naturally, I expect a person of Dr Henry’s policy credentials will offer some well defined and immediate insights – and that these will lead to some specific initiatives for implementation during this term of Government and the next.
But the real aim is higher.
The White Paper on Australia in the Asian Century should generate a set of general propositions to guide policy development over the long-term.
To guide preparations over the next five years for major policies and projects which would become reality over the next ten to fifteen.
More detail on the terms of reference were given in a media release.
A special Committee of Cabinet will be established including external advisers.
The Australian gives a round-up of reaction around the traps.
Gillard specified that defence would not be revisited in the White Paper. Hugh White disagrees. He thinks our defence relationships with the US and our trading relationships with China are in potential conflictl and need rethinking.
Gillard also said that in her opinion “we are not on a quest for more regional or indeed global architecture.” This was seen by some, notably the Australian Financial Review, as a slap-down of K Rudd, who did not attend the launch. But then Foreign Ministers are often away. Recently he famously said that he spends a lot of time overseas because that’s where foreigners live.
Certainly the initiative was rightly seen as Gillard taking a more positive interest and involvement in foreign affairs.
In her Friday column in the AFR Laura Tingle said that she understood there were more policy initiatives of this kind in the pipeline. Be that as it may, it is hard to see Labor’s fortunes under Gillard turning around through all this worthy endeavour. This one was not picked up by the ABC on the radio or TV evening news. It got a mention on Lateline and Fran Kelly gave it a run but it was scarcely visible with the media focus on football finals and Eatock v Bolt. For Radio National listeners today’s program will be devoted to the topic, but for voter land generally I’d be surprised if it registered at all.
… the government has commissioned a White Paper on Australia in the Asian Century.
Really it sounds more like an undergraduate essay topic or a subject for a debating competition. Making definitions is going to be a real bugger: define ‘Asian’, define ‘Asian century’…
TimT, there is no need to trivialise the whole thing. I’m sure Ken Henry, PhD, will cope. If you followed the link to Fran Kelly’s program, you’d know that Dr Michael Wesley, Executive Director of the Lowy Institute, has written a book There goes the neighbourhood: Australia and the rise of Asia . I’m sure he got beyond the level of undergaduate essays.
Someone somewhere suggested that Ken Henry ought to be co-chairing this initiative with a business ‘suit’ in order to ensure the non-mining sector get a plug. Australian universities in particular ought to be salivating at the prospect of increased asian education services they can offer and the potential funding from Canberra to make it happen.
“it is hard to see Labor’s fortunes under Gillard turning around through all this worthy endeavour”
No, well it’s better than nothing, but for those few interested, reminds us of how little this government has done in this area. Four years after coming to power and they’ve just noticed Asia.
I don’t know if it helps that its Ken Henry doing the thing – it makes you wonder if the government will adopt as many of the recommendations as they have of his tax proposals .
I was disappointed that the speech was so ‘economic and strategic’ and there was nothing about the cultural benefits we can bring to them and they to us, the benefits of greater friendship and understanding, of collaboration.
Perhaps the report should be subtitled “Steps along the path to Asutralians becoming the poor white trash of Asia”, because we don’t seem to have had anyone , or have anyone in a government leadership position, who ‘gets it’.
Not trivialising at all Brian – it just strikes me as being rather too early to say that this will be an ‘Asian’ century. Lots of unpredictable things happen in centuries…
TimT: As you say lots of unpredictable things happen in centuries. Yuo only have to think what people in 1911 thought 2011 would look like.
However, prudent management needs to look at scenarios and think about what they may need to do if a particular scenario turns out to be what happens.
Russell: You are quite right. It is a scandal that Rudd hasn’t visited Asia at all since Labor came to power.
John D – what has he achieved in Asia?
@6 “It is a scandal that Rudd hasn’t visited Asia at all since Labor came to power.”
Huh? Rudd has been to Asia numerous times.
On a more serious note, I think the report is an interesting project but needs to be seen in the context of a decades-long attempt to rethink Australia’s regional relationships. Ross Garnaut’s report “Australia and the North East Asian Ascendancy” from 1989 might have been the last major signpost but there have been plenty of others.
@8
Indeed, Russell mustn’t have noticed the bollocking he got in the Australian etc for visiting China before he visited Japan.
Russell “Four years after coming to power and they’ve just noticed Asia.”
I don’t remember Howard noticing Asia at all.
@10 – well Howard must have noticed it because he applied for the position of deputy sheriff in these parts. To give Howard the tiny bit of credit he deserves, he got better over time, and our response to the tsunami wasn’t bad at all.
That’s the problem – does anyone feel that anything in foreign affairs has changed since Downer was in charge? (With the very welcome exception of our stance on climate change)
I would have like Julia Gillard to have accompanied this speech of cliches and promises with at least one announcement, one definite commitment from the government to do something, starting now.
The Australia Talks program was well worthwhile. It emphasised the need for social and cultural engagement as well as economic. There was a lot of discussion on language teaching, which appears to be falling into neglect and being squeezed out.
Russell, I heard the speech on NewsRadio, and it wasn’t bad at all, as these things go. One worry is that Gillard in formal settings has a lousy delivery. I’m told that in person she is lively, engaging, empathetic and a good communicator. I think she’s trying to sound serious and PM-like, but there is a note of tiredness or perhaps even sadness that works against her message.
I think the Gillard experiment is over, so it’s just a matter of how the end game works out. Mungo MacCallum called it the other day.
Brian – I’ll never again listen to Australia Talks because of the anxiety it produces: callers being hurried to finish what they’re saying.
Mungo MacCallum sounds about right, and it seems sad, a waste of her talents. Her fatal flaw is her inability to judge what is the right advice as opposed to the wrong!
But as in everything else, I blame the lot of them – it’s a poor team. That includes the Premiers and other leaders. Even at the local government level – I live in a large, not poor, Council area and no one, including me (who would be interested) would know if we even have a ‘sister city’ relationship with a city in Indonesia, let alone any form of exchange.
I forgot to blame the universities too. (They’ll blame the government).
Back in the wonderful 70s when money flooded into universities and Asian Studies departments were set up, and whole collections of resources bought for the uni libraries, I wandered into a talk being given by a visiting lecturer.
I wasn’t studying Asian Studies, or particularly interested in Asia, but I often sat in on lectures in other departments. This lecturer turned out to be the Indonesian literary superstar Rendra, who of course I’d never heard of. It was a rivetting, thrilling, inspiring performance which left me charged up for weeks, and with an ambition to get to Indonesia to live, which I later fulfilled.
We are missing out on so much ……
My grandpa help establish Adelaide’s sister city relationship with Penang with the SA Premier at the time- Don Dunston.
There is so much that could be shared there – particularly Adelaide’s recycling program – that would benefit Penang and Malaysia as a whole, but unfortunately is not
Gillard says:
Sadly Australia has nothing to offer the new Asian middle class that can’t be sourced more cheaply elsewhere. The commodities boom and rampant Aussie dollar has priced us of the market for well, everything, except rocks. Is the aspirational Chinese or Indian going to lust after a BMW, Audi or a Holden? A Whirlpool or a Miele? Are they going to send their kids to an unknown overpriced Australian university or one of the great universities of Europe and the US? Would they holiday in Paris or New York, or the Gold Coast?
Proximity is no help. Catch a plane from Sydney to Bejing. Its almost 12 hours!
We have the mining boom, but it is at the expense of everything else. Everything. We are destined to become a quarry for Asia.
We might be part of Asia in geography, however we live like a top heavy European welfare society. So we’re not really “part of Asia”. Take away the resources and much of Asia hasn’t got much interest in what we’re offering.
Asia is the place to be, and any young guy/girl with ability that isn’t looking to be there is crazy.
I don’t have anything against refugee’s, however if they go through Asia to get here, they’re not really interested in “making it”. I think it’s more a case of eyes on the welfare prize. It’s sad because Australia really could do with a better class of citizen, immigrant or not.
Rob – we are known in Asia, if not completely accurately. Most people I spoke to envied our lifestyle and how much space we had: “everyone lives in a big house with a garden”. Plus there are many, long standing business connections with places like Singapore and Japan (they were buying our wool before they were buying our iron ore). And how many of their children are educated here?
It would be nice to think that young Australians thought of Asia as a place to work, but it would be a big help to them if they had been taught one, or even two!, Asian languages at school.
Refugees (some people here will hold that apostrophe against you) aren’t able to settle in most Asian countries. They can’t become citizens, have no legal status, can’t go to educational institutions or register a business. Apart from that they are fleeing something threatening and looking for a safe place – Australia has a strong rule of law and, relatively, corruption-free institutions – if you were a refugee you would want to come here too.
So why do we do it?
Anyone from Australia with a brain is going to decamp for Asia, where the tax rates, & reward for enterprise, are far more attractive.
Why does Australia dish out gratis payments to the cashed-up middle to upper classes of “refugee” departure nations?
The speech by the PM was at least a solid attempt to get into the real nitty gritty of governing Australia and should be welcomed. Selecting Henry to lead it was also good as he seems well respected.
My problem with the speech are comments about how China’s middle classes will buy from us. Like Lorax I think we have nothing to sell. There is an implicit “born to rule by clever white men” in these comments.
“High end manufacturing” er!!!! where in Aus – surely China is now coming second or third in this race with Aus not even entered in the heats.
“clean, high quality produce and drink premium wine” – maybe but Chinese winemakers are now visiting so the lower end of the market will soon disappear, although maybe the high end will stay.
“tertiary educations and for technical skills” – Really?? – I think maybe there will be a trend by Chinese middle classes to send kinds to Aus for “finishing” but our standards in the core subjects of Maths and science are not going to be competitive with those in China, Singapore, Japan or India in many cases.
” they’ll travel in new ways, seeking new custom-made holiday experiences,” – maybe but is this the future we want as a mine and tourist destination.
“sophisticated financial advice” – Ummm!!!!!!! – Teaching grandma to suck eggs perhaps – China has been financially leading and trading for several thousand years.
“the world’s best medical services as well” – NOW THIS ONE MAY BE A WINNER.
The US proposal to force China to revalue its currency – Going through the Senate now may well trigger a trade war which Australia may be caught up in. China’s response will be interesting.
Well at least that explains why you’re still here.
daretotread said:
High standards are not the only reason ethnic Chinese parents from China and other asian countries send their children to Australia for schooling. Another reason is because the school system here is a lot less competitive and the parents want a less stressful schooling life for their children.
Aboriginal Steve at the Pub @ 19 – I know of a few people who left for Asia for both job opportunities and much lower income tax. But they tend to come back when its time for their children to go to school.
And if the refugees are “cashed up”, then hey let them all in! They’ll spend the money here in Australia, start new small businesses and contribute to the economy. Or are you afraid of the extra competition
As one of those people who left Australia for the “lower tax rates” (not!) to a “top-heavy welfare society” (Japan) I am glad that this issue might get some attention from the government, though one hopes the quality of discussion might be a little better than this post has attracted. I’m teaching students from all across the world and doing research at Asia’s top university, so I guess I have a few opinions on the Asian century.
Firstly, although I grant there’s a possibility that China may collapse under its own internal problems in the next 20 years, anyone who puts their stock in this and thinks we can ignore the rise of China is insane or profoundly stupid. And viewing the rise of China in terms only of threats is also profoundly backward. But at the same time, if we want to take advantage of what’s happening there, and want it to be positive for the world, we need to engage deeply with China at the cultural, educational, industrial and tourism levels. Dealing with Asia is first and foremost about education and language skills, and we need to show we’re competitive in the former and engaging with the latter.
Secondly, the education boom isn’t going to last, because the developed economies of Asia tend to look at sending their kids to the top universities in the world (i.e. not Australia), and are rapidly developing their own unis. To compete with that is going to require continuing improvements in our education system.
And lastly, people really have to stop seeing China in terms of the single dimension of authoritarianism. To the average Chinese person that issue is irrelevant, and seeing their political and social life in those terms just holds us back. I think a lot of peoples’ focus on this issue leads them to the first mistake I mentioned, and instead of engaging with a vibrant, growing nation that is going to be the centre of the world in the future, they just sit about waiting for it to collapse, or make outrageous racist statements about the Chinese. There’s a lot to like about China and if you aren’t interested in the likeable stuff, there’s definitely a lot to respect. We should engage with China on that basis if we want to benefit from its development.
That’s true sg, but it’s also true of many Asian countries, particularly Indonesia, which tends to be viewed by most Australians in a similarly negative way.
The decline in the teaching of the Indonesian language in our schools is a disgraceful situation.
daretoread @ 20:
They just have to remind the US how indebted it is. China owns a bunch of US Treasury bonds …
asian Adrian, I agree entirely. Indonesia has been modernizing rapidly, as has Thailand, and Australia now finds itself parked on the edge of a region of somewhere over 1.5 billion people who are largely sophisticated moderns, the majority of whom don’t speak any English. It would do us well to catch up with the realities of this development process, and to start recognizing that even though English is going to remain the dominant language of trade and science, we can’t engage properly with our region if we continue to pretend English alone is sufficient.
We really need to throw off the colonial yoke, our remnant fears from world war 2, and our nostalgia for the English speaking world.
SG – can I revise your figure up to 2.5 billion, we on the West coast feel a little closer to India than our Eastern States cousins ….
I don’t know whether the fault lies with the politicians or bureaucrats for our recent disasters, like how the government handled the live cattle trade with Indonesia, or the East Timor solution, but if it’s the bureaucrats then the new policy review should have some advice about the training of senior civil servants, which might include that they have spent some time living and working in the region.
Agreed about India, Russell, though I suspect that the massive inequality in India and its regional tensions may hold back its growth relative to China in the long term. But again, rather than harping on such things as proof that we don’t need to deal with countries in the region, we should be attempting to engage constructively so that we have an influence on their development, and are remembered positively once these nations have attained stability.
Dealing with countries like Indonesia from a simultaneously high-handed but insecure position of post-colonial superiority is not going to win us any favors, and it does seem like this labor govt hasn’t been doing so well in that area – the way they handled announcements about asylum seeker processing centres is another example of that. How long do our decision-makers think they can continue to keep this up as countries like Indonesia become wealthier and more confident, and as the ascendance of countries like China and India makes the region increasingly sheltered from the negative effects of American hegemony?
Russel@18:
I didn’t think it was just refugees that have the problem? AFAIK you have to be Chinese to get citizenship in China, and for most of the others it’s a long process if it can be done at all. Residency is different, mostly in being easier to get and easier to lose. “settling” when you have many fewer rights but almost the same obligations and can get kicked out on a whim is not easy to do. That’s one reason I got citizenship here – it means I have the same rights as skips barring the hopefully never-needed one of not being able to have my citizenship stripped from me.
I’m also not convinced that it’s all that easy to move to most Asian countries. Sure, if you’re in the elite here you can probably do it, but a man with (say) 15 years as a plasterer is going to (at best) get the same low wage that their Chinese counterparts get if they’re allowed into China. And good luck with the pervasive racism and sexism that makes it quite hard or more expensive to do business in much of Asia if you’re not local. If you’re ABC, sure, you can probably do well in China. But Anglo?
China: A country that has gone from being very very very poor to just plain poor (per capita) in a few short decades. This extraordinary growth was achieved because they started from a low base and were able to utilise Western technology, eg electricity generation techniques/grids, automobiles, construction techiques, etc.
Maybe China will become rich (per capita), maybe it won’t. I think it’s a huge mistake to extrapolate their recent growth to continue indefinitely.
Frankly, way too much credit has been given where it’s not due.
Moz, as I understand the law once you are a naturalised Australian you cannot be stripped of your citizenship unless you lied in obtaining it or committed a criminal offence punishable by at least one year in gaol in the 12 months immediately prior to it being conferred on you.
Am I wrong about this?
@Moz
“it means I have the same rights as skips barring the hopefully never-needed one of not being able to have my citizenship stripped from me.
”
Racist language?
Is’nt ‘Skips’ a term for anyone of any background born in Australia?
@Charles
“Is’nt ‘Skips’ a term for anyone of any background born in Australia?
”
Anyone who is a WASP.
“China: A country that has gone from being very very very poor to just plain poor (per capita) in a few short decades. This extraordinary growth was achieved because they started from a low base and were able to utilise Western technology, eg electricity generation techniques/grids, automobiles, construction techiques, etc”
Dave – if you take a longer view, then you see a China that was for most of our recorded history a powerful, advanced civilisation – we adopted technology from them, too – the sorry state of ‘modern China’ might have you thinking it’s a country of ignorant fools, but among those billion Chinese are a good many brilliant people. Lots of things could go wrong for China, but it wouldn’t be prudent for us to imagine that they’re not going to be very, very important to our future.