In part one of my scene setting series on this year’s Queensland election, I looked at Campbell Newman, the LNP and its prospects, arguing that a majority LNP government can’t be taken for granted as the outcome. So it’s time to examine the prospects of the ALP. A third installment, at PinkyOz’s suggestion, will examine the strategies and influence of the minor parties and Independents, particularly The Greens and Bob Katter’s Australian Party. The last in the series will discuss policy, and the likely shape of the campaign.
2011 was, paradoxically for the ALP which spent the whole year behind in the polls, a good year for Anna Bligh. The distressing events of the Queensland floods, during which over 90% of the State was disaster declared, allowed the Premier to rebuild her standing in the eyes of voters, impressing with her compassion, command of detail and leadership. Though Bligh’s poll ratings never recovered their pre-privatisation heights, she did put to bed rumours of challenges, and her performance enabled her to establish herself as an authoritative figure, and I’d argue, also enabled her to project a more charismatic, appealling and well rounded persona.
Bligh has largely taken a position above the hurly burly of daily politics, with Paul Lucas’ replacement as Deputy Premier, Andrew Fraser, taking the fight up to the LNP. Among those MPs and Ministers signalling an intention to retire are some who were controversial and disruptive. Her ministry now looks more united and capable, and the LNP has been placed under real pressure, particularly on policy and on Campbell Newman’s reluctance to disclose his own financial interests.
On policy, the Labor government played a bold hand.
Announcements towards the end of last year that half the proceeds of gas royalties would be diverted to an education fund, and that Queensland Health would be abolished, should capture voters’ attention. Similarly, the introduction and passage of the Civil Partnerships Bill by Fraser, as a private member’s bill, contributes to an unfinished agenda of human rights and legislative reform.
The timing of the election is uncertain. Parliament is due to sit again on Valentine’s Day, and it is highly probable that if an election is not called earlier, it will be dissolved and we will go to a poll five weeks later. It’s also quite possible, given that the ALP has now returned to a position which is at least competitive, that we’ll have an announcement in late January for a February election. Complicating matters is the fixed term of local governments, where all local elections in the state will be held on March 31. On one hand, Labor could benefit from having its BCC candidates attacking Campbell Newman’s performance as Brisbane Mayor. On the other, there’s a need to have some clear air between the two elections.
It’s unlikely, though constitutionally possible, that the election will be in April or May.
But whenever we go to the polls, the ALP has huge challenges, mostly ones of long incumbency. In health for instance, the government seeks to highlight the doubling of funding for hospitals over the last few years while at the same time, defuse the stink of scandals such as an alleged theft of millions of dollars by a health bureaucrat. The ALP’s health policy for the last few elections was, in effect, “we’ll fix it this time”. Despite the fact that, arguably, they just might this time, it becomes an increasingly difficult position to take.
Similarly, some of the real achievements of the Labor governments over the past decades are somewhat immaterial, and liable to be taken for granted. The modernisation of National Party Queensland, its democratisation, its transformation to a position closer to the Australian norm in terms of service provision and the liberties of citizens; all are somewhat impalpable, and prone to being forgotten. There was a conscious project to shift the norms of governance and life in the state, a work in progress which has succeeded to great degree. But those norms have shifted, and the baleful spectre of the Joh Bjelke-Petersen era is now faint.
The ALP, then, has problems both of success, and of failure.
This makes it more difficult to paint a positive picture of the future, though that effort will be made.
Queensland – and Brisbane – have quite a distinct social and electoral demography. In yesterday’s post, I argued that the path to an LNP minority government lies through both Independent and Katter success in the regions and the bush and an underwhelming performance in Brisbane. That’s also the path to an ALP majority government, but it’s a steeper one. With the exception of a number of electorates on Brisbane’s southern and northern outskirts, the ALP has few really safe seats. Brisbane has never had the same organised working class traditions and patterns of labour discernible in Sydney, Melbourne and Adelaide which created ultra safe Labor seats.
So, we have inner city seats, particularly Brisbane Central, Ashgrove, Mount Cootha and Greenslopes, which are amenable to LNP wins (and not to Green wins). Anna Bligh’s seat of South Brisbane would fall in the same category were she not Premier. Further out, and the suburbs begin quite close to the CBD in Brisbane, there are numerous suburban seats which are all, to greater and lesser degree, swinging. All the resources of incumbency will be deployed, but over a very large number of electorates.
There, too, the ALP has a problem in grassroots campaigning, given the continued legacy of the 2009 privatisations on party membership and its base, as well as continuing ructions within unions.
The ALP cannot rely on what has been its mainstay since 2004: the disunity and hopelessness of Tory campaigns. There will still, obviously, be an attempt to incite and provoke that, but it will not be enough. There is also the related question of whether a win this year would lead, inevitably, to a New South Wales style retribution (or, in Queensland psephological history, one akin to 1974) next time around. The prospects that Labor could end up holding around 11 or 12 seats out of 89 are now remote, but would be real again in the event of a sixth term victory. Conversely, an LNP loss would place an unstable formation under great pressure, perhaps fracturing in the process.
The Queensland Labor Party needs to continue its renewal, and to offer a vision and an agenda not just for the next three years, but for a decade at least, and to articulate convincing reasons to vote Labor which are grounded in values and politics. This will have to occur in conjunction with defensive and hyper-local campaigning, as well as a persuasive and multi-faceted attack on the LNP and all its works.
It is something of a tall order.
KAP could be help to Labor in some of its provincial marginals. Qld Labor has the problem that unlike NSW there is no ultra-safe ethnic base, if Qld Labor ever completely collapsed a la NSW it could end up with under 10 seats as the old working-class provincial city base that Labor held on to even in 1974 is mostly gone.
Apart from the Borbidge/Sheldon interregnum, the ALP has been in power continuously for 21+ years.
There’s a whole generation of Queenslanders who have never known what it’s like to be ruled by the National Party.
If the ALP suffers a narrow loss that will be good for them and ultimately (though not right away) good for Queensland. Campbell Newman is a bit of a joke and a little bit nasty but he’s not Joh Bjelke bloody Petersen. A few years of the LNP government will toughen up Queensland left activists who have had it too soft for too long.
If the ALP wins they might well decay NSW style and suffer a huge loss in 2015. That will be bad for Queensland.
Yes, I suggested yesterday, Geoff, that KAP in some ways reproduces the pattern of One Nation support (though weaker, I think). So there is the real prospect that KAP could assist Labor in some regional seats, particularly to the degree that they become what are in effect first past the post contests, with the culture of ‘just vote one’ having been well and truly entrenched under OPV.
I made the same point regarding the lack of really safe seats in Brisbane, due to its particular cultural and social demography. The relatively small proportion of post-war immigration, and its greater disbursement, compared to Syd/Melb/Adelaide, is also a factor, as you suggest. Having said that, I’d note that more recent streams of immigration (particularly from South Pacific communities) are helpful to the ALP in some of its northern Brisbane and southern seats around Ipswich and Logan.
I also think you’re right to suggest that holding on to its regional urban seats is both necessary for Labor, and difficult this time. But, again as I said, I think the spectre of a 1974/NSW style wipeout has been postponed.
@2 – Sam, I think, possibly, a narrow loss this time (rather than a whopping one next time) would be a good thing for the ALP’s longer term prospects, but I think, conversely, you’re underrating the damage Campbell Newman might do.
A few thoughts:
1. Any ‘Narrow loss’ will result in good ALP talent leaving parliamanet and conservatives most likely being in for a couple of terms.
2. Read that next Underbelly TV series is in Fitzgerald Inquiry – when will it go to air??… http://www.couriermail.com.au/entertainment/tv/queenslands-fitzgerald-inquiry-to-be-the-subject-of-the-next-underbelly/story-e6freqj6-1226211850928
3. Will the Queensland anti-Gillard sentiment rub off on Bligh, or has she successfully divorced herself from it.
4. Should Bligh do a Joh and try to beat up on Canberra – set up a cat fight (sorry, I can’t resist that comment! Shame on me!).
5. Peter Beattie sort of apologised for his old government and his ‘new-Labor’ government was re-elected, can Anna get away with it as well.
6. I’d think health would have to be the big issue.
Good post Mark. Im too far away to follow closely, but my gut feeling is that there is no “managerialist”, or “business as usual” way out of this one for the QLD ALP. Fraser’s bill was more the ticket – show them reform credentials, excite the disengaged.
Otherwise, expect its just time up.
(Off topic, but if anyone wants a bet on the LNP govt most likely to fall after one term, Ive got $50 on Bailieu here in VIC.)
Mark, barring some LNP implosion (that never being beyond possibility) there is simply not enough time now for the ALP to come back. My guess is that there will be an average 57 – 43 2PP vote in February or March when the election is called. That means the ALP will lose about 15 or 16 seats. I think Newman will get up in Ashgrove because, as well as Kate Jones may be liked, I think the idea of electing the premier will be a powerful vote winner; the more so given that people think Newman is going to win.
Nick, although the trend has been in the ALP’s favour, I don’t think it’s a matter of there not being enough time. If you recall the 2009 campaign, there was significant movement during the campaign period itself, and the ALP only won it in the last 2 days. They’re starting about 3 points behind where they were at a comparable period in 2009, though it will be much harder. But I think the hope is to pare back the LNP’s lead during the campaign, which is quite possible.
Note also that the LNP needs about 51/52% of the 2PP to win in its own right – for a number of reasons, including the effects of OPV, the distribution of seats and the number of well entrenched independents (and probably Knuth in Callide) who will almost certainly be re-elected.
I think something in the range of 53% is more likely, but it could be lower.
There are also significant tactical disadvantages to Newman not being an MP.
La Nina will take care of Campbell Newman.
Labor has been pissing off its supporters both federally and locally for some time because it is putting too much effort trying to suck up to people who are never going to vote for it. As a result people who would have argued Labor’s case just can’t be bothered or have gone over to the Greens.
Julia is showing signs of understanding this with a range of jobs completed and upcoming action that will clearly benefit the sort of people who often vote Labor.
Anna might be able to scrabble back in and consolidate afterwards if she comes up with some left of center policies.
Sam@2, please recall that Qld Parliament is unicameral: even a narrow majority will give Newman the power to do effectively-unlimited damage to Queensland via extreme right-wing legislation.
As far as I can see, one of the biggest juggling acts that Bligh must pull off is the fact that she has to appeal to Greens voters and left-leaning nonpartisan voters at the same time, due to the optional preferencing system. While I consider it (on the whole) a good system, it does mean that to get over the top, the Premier is going to have to appeal to two very different crowds of people, as well as her base, to get re-elected.
Mat, I’m not sure who you have in mind as “left-leaning nonpartisan voters”.
It is certainly true that the ALP has to straddle a number of groups whose interests aren’t naturally or obviously reconcilable without a nuanced political effort (including regional voters). But, then, the LNP does too, and I tend to think the amalgamation makes that harder.
To a degree, of course, being Queensland, both parties will try to fudge some of the differences by invoking Queensland exceptionalism and parochialism!
unicameral … will give Newman the power to do effectively-unlimited damage to Queensland via extreme right-wing legislation.
I’m not buying this for two reasons. One, even governments with full control of Parliament are constrained in what they can do. Two, Newman is not an extreme right winger. Anybody who thinks that he is badly in need of some perspective.
the LNP needs about 51/52% of the 2PP to win in its own right
How ironic. You can’t make this stuff up.
Back on the Labor Party: the worst possible thing for a party in government is to win one term too many. They’ve arguably already won one term too many, and save for AB’s performance during the floods would be heading for a (un)natural disaster of their own.
The best thing for the Labor Party would be to take a narrow loss, get a new generation of leaders, and gear up to retake government in 3 or 6 years. Otherwise they could be on the wrong end of the normal Queensland electoral cycle, where parties are entrenched in opposition for decades.
Sam: This election will be Bligh’s second as leader. At this stage, Bligh seems to be growing into the role, not going downhill. In addition, quite a bit of new blood has flowed into cabinet since Beattie left and some of the cabinet members from this term will not be running. Before you say “tired old government” you need to have a look at the people making up the current cabinet.
You might want to say
Unfortunately, the evidence throughout Australia suggests that a close loss doesn’t make it easier for parties to regain power. In fact, a close loss seems encourages a party to stay disciplined (and unchanged) in the hope of winning the next election. What often happens is that a close loss is followed by a bigger loss and a long stay in opposition.
From Labor’s point of view it would be better to win the election and do the renewal while in power.
The ALP have been in government far too long in Queensland and it shows.
It would be good for Queensland to have a change of government.
It is a myth you can ‘renew’ in government. you only do it in opposition with mostly new front-benchers
Re: GREENS.
It would be interesting to do research on how Qld voters rate the ALP-Greens federal government. My feeling is they would be less than impressed. It would seem important for Premier Bligh to sort out clearly for the electorate what future relationship her Gov’t could have with Greens (and most likely before Newman bangs on about it).
Before the Victorian election, Bailleau made a big noise about NOT forming Gov’t, and with the Greens – two weeks out. It was about the only real noise (policy) they made before sliding into power (courtesy of a few votes in electorates on the Frankston line). It sort of worked, but I don’t think the impact can be measured. Of course, the landscape dramatically has changed since then – courtesy of Canberra.
Does Bligh chase Green preferences??
Or does she say ‘no way’, we govern in our own right or not at all.
Charlie 16
We don’t have an ‘ALP-Greens’ federal government.
I’d say that the LNP are more likely to go chasing Greens preferences (in regard to the Coal Seam Gas issue) than the ALP is.
“sliding into power (courtesy of a few votes in electorates on the Frankston line)”
Really? Only four of the twelve seats the ALP lost were on the Frankston line. Another five were lost in a block along the Eastern lines, and the swings against the ALP (~5 to 8%) were more or less uniform across the entire state.
@ 19:
Maybe Chazza’s post ought to be in “Spotlight the Spin”?
Mark Bahnisch @12:
I had in mind the kind of swing voter who favours the ALP, but isn’t wedded to it. The sort who tend to vote (or preference) Labor about 2/3 of the time, but in Queensland have to be persuaded to preference them at all, due to the exhausting preferences rules.
Sam @13:
Joh Bjelke-Peterson disagrees with you. His long tenure in office showed that so long as you rule Parliament, you rule the roost. Or consider John Howard’s 11-year tenure – how much did he change? Nearly everything. Then again, Parliamentary supremacy is the mainstay of the Westminster constitutional system, unlike the Washington balance-of-powers model. Sometimes, that’s a good thing…other times, not so much.
Also, at the 1998 Federal election, the ALP received 50.98% of the TPP vote, and won only 67 seats.
Finally, I would argue that Anna Bligh – while not perfect – has been doing quite a good job of rejuvenating Qld ALP leadership on the frontbench even while still in Government.
@17: “We don’t have an ‘ALP-Greens’ federal government.”
……. Perceptions count.
@19: I’m thinking Bentleigh and Mordiallic made the difference.
Hmm … http://www.couriermail.com.au/life/officials-put-bligh-poll-plan-in-doubt/story-fn8mqfvq-1226234002629
If the local Council elections are to be held on 31 March 2012, and Anna Bligh is not tempted to bump that date, and we know that the ECQ needs at least four weeks separation between the two events then: a February 18 or mid May (thinking 12 or 18th) election are the more obvious choices (remembering Easter dates).
Since the ALP has not yet announced all of their candidates a Feb 18 poll is looking … less likely. Thoughts?