Queensland Premier Anna Bligh has just announced that the state election, originally intended to be held on March 3, will now be held on March 24. Local Council elections, scheduled for March 31, will be delayed until April or May.
The extended campaign is justified by the fact that the Floods Inquiry Chair, Catherine Holmes, has requested an extension of time on the Commission’s report, after claims made in The Australian that SEQ water authorities had initiated the wrong strategy for releasing water from the Wivenhoe Dam last year.
Bligh says Queenslanders have a right to see the report before they vote.
The announcement comes as localised flooding again hits Brisbane and South East Queensland, and other parts of the state. Torrential rain continued to fall in Brisbane overnight.
The election campaign will be a very long one. Liberal National Party Leader Campbell Newman has been agitating for some time for an election date, and he now has his wish. But presumably the LNP will have been planning for a five or six week campaign, and no doubt will be discombobulated by the announcement.
There is something of a question mark as to when the campaign will move into top gear, as many Queenslanders feel unnerved by flooding so close to the anniversary of last year’s disastrous inundations.
Parliament is expected to sit on February 14, as scheduled, and the caretaker period and the formal election campaign will not commence until Anna Bligh visits Governor Penelope Wensley on February 19 to request the dissolution of the Legislative Assembly and the issuing of writs for the poll. In the meantime, we are in faux campaign mode, and Labor continues to govern.
So Campbell Newman and the LNP face a decision as to how intense they want to play the political game until Parliament is dissolved. No doubt Bligh is hoping there’ll be a contrast between her continued leadership and an LNP she will be hoping will present as shrill, carping and overly political.
Anna Bligh’s press conference repeatedly sounded two notes – the importance of leadership and trust, and Campbell Newman’s inexperience at state level.
The long campaign will be designed to apply maximum pressure to the former Mayor, whose chances of winning Ashgrove can’t be rated as better than 50/50. There are significant risks in such a lengthy campaign for the Labor Party, not least the likely annoyance factor to the voters, but if the ALP is banking on indiscipline and shenanigans from the LNP, there is also now greater potential for fracture lines to emerge.
Previous LP coverage of the Queensland campaign, including a comprehensive preview of all the players and likely issues, can be found here. William ‘The Poll Bludger’ Bowe’s seat by seat guide is here.
I think Anna Bligh is in with a good chance if the election is run on local issues. I reckon the Coalition’s best chance is to try and turn the election into a referendum on the recent performance of the Federal Government. If they can move the narrative to that then they might turn it about.
Mark, how keen do you think that Anna Bligh will be to invite the current Prime Minister to go on the hustings with her? May she prefer to be seen with the Foreign Minister?
I think Anna Bligh is in with a good chance if the election is run on local issues.
Which local issues? Queensland Health, privatisation, Wivenhoe Dam pre-flood … all super voter winners for Bligh, for sure.
Terry, I think your question answers itself.
There might also be a little bit of hope there that the Foreign Minister will be the Prime Minister again by March 24.
Sam, You forgot the fuel tax and the massive increases in the cost of driver’s licences and public transport. Oh, and the 2nd highest unemployment rate in the nation.
Let’s be honest. The ALP will just throw mud at Newman and his family while trying to wedge the L away from the NP on city/bush issues. It’s a pretty simple plan, but their only hope is a meltdown within the opposition so that’s the way it will run.
Ashgrove will be fun. The ALP will want to play the underdog card, but also use the possibility of Newman missing out to ask those dreaded “who will be Premier” questions.
Come on Mark! The chances of Rudd returning as PM are zero.
My guess is that delaying the council elections will have a negative impact on the ALP, particularly outside the SE corner
What the? – Mark didn’t say that Rudd would return, but that there would be a return to Rudd, but that the Queensland ALP may be hoping for one.
I doubt there’s much impact from delaying the council elections. A lot have not really got into gear, and I think the ALP has more than enough problems in the regions not to worry about another one!
Kim you are right on both counts.
The situation in Canberra may well present Anna Bligh with difficulties in running a two-month election campaign. If she is inviting Kevin Rudd up but not Julia Gillard, it is unlikely that journalists will be keeping their questions to such matters as Greek sovereign debt negotiations or the current status of Bashir al-Assad’s regime in Syria.
There is also the real risk, as Mark alludes to, of a full scale conflagration in the federal government over the next two months. Tony Abbott is of the view that the Gillard government is being held up by three somewhat rickety struts – Andrew Wilkie, Peter Slipper and Craig Thomson – and clearly fancies that he (or possibly Fair Work Australia) may be able to knock one of the three over.
I think Tony Abbott is deluding himself on that. Rob Oakeshott and Tony Windsor have already slapped down Christopher Pyne’s suggestion that there should be a no confidence motion over Thomson next week.
Having said that, as Mark has said in his previous analysis, there’s no doubt that the federal ALP is a drag on the Queensland party in this campaign.
What we have in queensland is a shamful situation for the Bligh lead government, A state that caused the flodd crisis last year by empting a dam into the brisbane river, (currently with all the rain in the SQ area at the moment we are looking at another), Did the queensland government help and support the people of queensland in crissis NO.
We have a masive defrauding exersise that happen in queensland help and you can’t tell me that other Queensland Health ewxecutive and managers new nothing about this 14 million dollar fraud.
We have health workers not being paid because I a system glich
NOT good enough Anna Good bye
and lets not forget selling off the Queensland assest like the railways and foresty, They have sold off Queensland Employment for the people of Queensland but what for, just to make a quick buck financially.
Unions and worker are not happy ANNA
Geoff, you’re new here. The idea of this blog is not to post general comments on politics, but to engage with the conversation. So please keep that in mind if you visit us again.
And check your spelling, grammar and punctuation before you post. This isn’t a News Ltd blog.
Its worth remembering that Bligh benefited greatly from Rudd’s popularity during the last Qld election, and the performance of the Bligh government contributed a significant negative affect on Gillard during the last federal election.
Other than a heap of FREE ( QLD taxpayer and mining royalties funded) campaign propaganda before 19 feb, she must have the inside Goss [heh] on the flood enquiry findings, of the commission she appointed.
Who is the mole?
But since then Bligh has coped well with the Qld floods and Can-do Campbell has come into the picture. Is he as popular as he thinks he is?
3 cheers for Mark having fun with his politics!
I love Kevvy(aka the big man!) but he’s gone: he was a great man, Big ‘HEAVY’ Kev. His legacy is the NBN and it stands taller than a honermooners you-know-what right in the middle of the pitch.. GET HIM UP HERE!!
~8^\/’///,<
(Bloody Oath he was Tony!!)
Sam at 14
Pedantry, the language of the pseudo Intellectual elite. Can only people that are anally retentive play here?
@19 you don’t have to be anally retentive to post here Colmac, but if you are prone to the opposite extreme — releasing s#% all over the place — you can expect the old heave-ho.
So, anyway, Queensland. Beautiful one day…
Watched Newman on the 7.30 report. He has been saying for weeks the election would be on March 24. Now he is saying that this is not good enough.
Also saying that waiting for the flood report wasn’t necessary. But what would he and his boys have said if the elction had been called before the flood report came out?
Came across as a nit picking whinger.
Well, he is!
Can someone explain why it matters who is in office in Qld?
I’ve noted several commentators saying the removal of the eight cent fuel subsidy was a failure of the Bligh government; I haven’t seen the LNP promising to reinstate it, have I missed something ?
In my region (Far North) the LNP are fostering support by promising to reverse local government amalgamation in the Cairns and Tablelands regions; I can’t see it happening, you just don’t go backwards.
Wantok, you got to look at the LNP fine print re de-amalgamation.
….. Opposition Local Government spokesman David Gibson, who outlined how his party would deal with the issue.
He said it would need to “achieve an understanding that ratepayers of any proposed new local authority would bear the full costs of any de-amalgamation”.
And LNP government would then need to get a “strong community driven submission” demonstrating a high level of community support.
Remember, based on the ‘Viagra of Local Government Report’, Labor forced the “lock, stock and barrel” amalgamation on us with only token financial support to do so. While the then Opposition leader, Jeff Seeney, already pledged to de-amalgamate councils with community support by way of a poll if they came to office.
Don’t get me wrong, overall in the medium/long run the amalgamation is probably a good thing for the ratepayers of TRC. However, as with many of Labors ‘reforms’ it was done by remote control without apparent considerations of realities on the ground including adequate financial support. Hence, the shifting of Local Gov election date, and thus shortening the period of their budgetary planning, is just more sand in the eyes of those involved in keeping our places of living ticking over smoothly.
What I would like to know, is there substance behind the alleged ‘politics of the Queensland Floods Commission of Inquiry’? Would apprechiate if someone could put the sonar onto those murky flood waters.
Campbell dumped Langbroek’s pledge to reinstate the fuel subsidy.
Ootz, I’m not sure what you mean by the “alleged politics of the Queensland Floods Commission of Enquiry”.
Kim, these were Campbell’s words (minus alleged, my bad) last night on ABC 7.30.
What I understand is, that the extension has been sought to the Inquiry to investigate claims that a State government body has inappropriately operated Wivenhoe dam. Now as tragic as the subsequent event to these alleged failings were, I cannot see how this is relevant to a QLD State nor Local Government election, as Bligh claimed on the same show as above. For her to use that Inquiry extension to cause such a ruckus just based on Mr Borrows ….. is expected to be asked about documents he provided for an emergency meeting of Ms Bligh’s cabinet on January 17 last year. The documents suggested that Wivenhoe Dam had been operated in the wrong strategy. does not make sense to me. Unless ….
As Anthony Green pointed out, the big game is all about seats based around Brisbane. This has been further substantiated by Newman ruling out a Katter coalition.
Vaguely based on akn’s assessment @23, I for one hope for a hung parliament. Given the current federal experience it might not be such a bad thing, despite msm headlines.
As regards the Flood enquiry report I have to side with Anna Bligh that the report should be made public prior to the election. The alternative would allow the LNP to imply that Labor want to get the election over before, a perhaps critical, enquiry report is published.
Ootz @25 that’s interesting on the local government amalgamation reversals; on that basis I can’t see Port Douglas or Mareeba going it alone.
It is also costing the LNP and its supporters $4,000 per week to support Newman.