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20 responses to “King hit or own goal?”

  1. Thrawn

    The biggest difference to the PBO costings of the public servant cuts is the date from it starts. Coalition’s PBO has it starting from 1st October 2013 whilst ALP’s is 1st July 2014. It means the saving numbers for the 1st, 2nd and 3rd years of the PBO forecasts is drastically bigger when you start the attrition cuts immediately.

  2. Geoff Henderson

    I’m out of energy. I’m so tired of the BS, tired of the performers, tired of the media clowns and tired of whoever is conducting this election show.
    I am tired of trying to sort the shite from the clay – even wondering if there is any clay.

    I show a glimmer of interest when I think about the shakedown that will follow in either (but almost certainly Labor) camp post election. Who will be left standing, where will the factions be. Will there be a move to distance the unions – I doubt that is likely. So what will change post election? I think that is now of much greater interest in the event that Labor is shown the door.

  3. Graham Bell

    there are issues of substance at stake.

    Indeed there are …. but it is a typical Australian election …. and, as usual, the public are treated like mushrooms.

    No matter which faction/party gets in there will be – as usual – the surprise discovery of an unexpected whopping big Budget Black Hole to match the unexpected whopping big lies and the unexpected whopping big cut-backs in pre-election promises, solemn undertakings and “never-in-my-time’ sincere assurances.

    It’s bad enough that business people get a mere slap on the wrist for insider trading and for defrauding customers and shareholders alike;
    but until there are mandatory prison terms, with hard labour and zero parole opportunities, for politicians and faction/party officials who deliberately deceive the public in order to get elected, nothing will change.

    b.t.w. Brian, the mixed metaphor was fine; the message came through loud and clear. :-)

  4. Graham Bell

    Brian: Please don’t imagine that I am disparaging your excellent summary of a lot of propaganda, analyses, shadow-boxing and information on the topic. Thank you very much for clarifying a lot of the stuff that is flying around; you have made more sense of it than I could have. :-)

  5. wpd

    Great article Brian. Very informative. Surely Rudd must know by now that every statement he makes will be listened to, taken down and used against him. We are not well served by the MSM and this election provides plenty of evidence.

  6. chrisl

    That shows the budget coming back into structural surplus, something no-one seems to want to believe

    Now why would that be?

  7. Bolter

    Politicising Treasury and finance by asking them to cost opposition policies and using private memos was very poor behaviour that is going to come back to bite the Labor Party in elections to come

  8. Jacques de Molay

    I know the economy is in good shape but IMO Labor have forfeited any right to talk about the economy after the Gillard/Swan surplus guarantee debacle.

    I said at the time it was a mistake to guarantee something politicians can’t guarantee and still can’t believe Gillard/Swan were stupid enough to do it (regardless of what Treasury might or might not have been telling them).

  9. Alan

    Treasury and Finance have always costed opposition policies, and until relatively recently those costings were generally accepted. Nicholas Gruen is right. All we are seeing is a carnival of institutional dysfunction.

  10. wpd

    Treasury and Finance have always costed opposition policies

    That’s my experience as well.

  11. Alison

    political coverage has been disgusting! Nothing to the Australian opinion makers now, no grace, just bluff and bluster. Labor, under both Gillard and Rudd, have no-one who can talk and be heard. As for the Libs, words, there are no words. Perhaps I’m the same as Labor. We are all the losers.

  12. John D

    Every election we get governments rabbiting on about how the opposition’s figures don’t add etc. etc. Most of us are in no position to sort out the arguments so the net effect is pissing most of us off without converting anyone.
    If Rudd is to have any chance of winning he has to come up with a significant positive at his election launch at make this the main topic for the rest of the week.
    In this context it is interesting to note that Saturday’s SMH said on the front page that Abbott….has revealed that he will not release detailed costings until the last few hours before the poll.
    My first reaction is that this was extremely arrogant. After a bit more thought though I saw this as a deliberate strategy to keep the conversation on something that the voters have lost interest in. Good for Tony’s tea party who want to shut down anything that might give Rudd a chance. Good strategy because Labor will find it hard not to huff and puff about what Abbott has said he is going to do.

  13. Thrawn

    John D @ 2

    I always suspected from the start that part of the reason the Coalition kept the costings issue alive is so they distract Labor away from actually attacking policy, particularly the extremely vulnerable PPL.

    Costings is something Coalition can solve at its own timetable when the pressure gets too hot (by releasing the bits it wants). Thats why they decided to release some of it on Wednesday, particularly the PPL costings as pressure on that is starting to get too much. I bet they didn’t expect Labor to step on a landmine on the Treasury/Finance issue and blow themselves up.

  14. m0nty

    It is not over until the Libs release their costings in full. There will be a short window for Labor to make the case that the hole does exist. Very short! But it comes at precisely the moment when people are paying most attention, and the large amount of undecideds (as per Auspoll) are deciding. The previous weeks of the campaign will fade into the background, and costings will dominate.

    There is still time enough for a Hewson.

  15. Gordon Bennett

    It was an attempt, imitating head-banger Swan at the last two elections, to make the Coalition look poor fiscal managers by pulling a black hole out of the hat.

    Swan, as Treasurer, was an epic contortionist, conjurer and cosmeticist when it came to manipulating figures, but neither Bowen nor Rudd can match his bald-faced front, and Wong was merely, as she has been all along, the most articulate of the obfuscates, trapped by her new found allegiance to arch-enemy Rudd.

    They were caught unawares by the Treasury’s reluctance to keep quiet. Then seriously found out as pretentious at best. Their bluff was exposed by those they used.

    What is amazing is that they have continued the scam. As if the rest of Australia didn’t notice. Hockey got it right when said they should apologise and move on. Cut their losses.

    It’s one thing to be exposed as frauds, but quite another to, then, sustain the deceit.

    Playing with black holes, it seems, can suck some people in.

  16. Graham Bell

    Folks: all the jiggery-pokery with projected revenue and expenditure has had the effect of making some people disbelieve ANY figures that come out of the factions/parties and out of Treasury and Finance and out of ABS too, no matter how accurate those figures actually are.

    This is similar to what happened with Five Year Plans in the old Soviet Union. The Party came out with all sorts of wonderful figures – which the workers dutifully pretended to believe. There’s a similar credibility chasm developing in Australia. Pity the diligent public servants caught up in all this.

  17. Graham Bell

    Gordon Bennett @18:

    Playing with black holes, it seems, can suck some people in.

    That has to be Quote of the Week in this election campaign.

  18. pablo

    I’m surprised more wasn’t made in the media of the risks in a five week long election race. Hawke ran into similar tedium problems in his double dissolution effort of 1984, another five week marathon where Hawke visibly wiltered and nearly lost to Peacock.
    The same could be said of Rudd in the late stages of the current campaign. You could say the pathology of campaigning is a dangerous unpredictable field both for leaders and an increasingly irritable public. A snap poll (2 wks) would have suited the ‘zip’ and the punters imho.

  19. Graham Bell

    If you are fighting in a military campaign, one of the worst things you can do is to allow the Enemy to choose the field, the time and the manner in which you have to fight the battles, skirmishes and ambushes of that campaign.

    Given that Abbott and his bunch were so successful in suckering Julia Gillard into fighting on THEIR terms – to the extent that they caused her to forget she was Prime Minister of the nation and revert to playing the lawyers’ games – it is amazing that Kevin Rudd has fallen for the same old tricks.

    Making statements on ALP budget plans and how they are to be financed was fine; that’s what he is supposed to do. Getting into an unwinnable brawl over them was the equivalent to walking into an ambush and then failing to initiate counterambush drills, disengage, withdraw and then launch a attack on the Enemy’s weak-points.

    He should have dismissed whatever murdoch’s muppets had to say with a couple of one-liners – then told the public what HIS faction/party’s vision was for fiscally responsible budgets – then ignored all the inducements to get suckered back into the killing-ground of the ambush – and then attacked one or more of the many obvious weakpoints of the LNP.

    Maybe Kevin Rudd would have been better seeking advice on this, based on real world experience, from his war veteran brother as well as seeking advice from all the financial whiz-kids, who have probably led quite sheltered lives.