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119 responses to “Weekly Election 2013 thread”

  1. Russell

    So. The Greens campaign launch?

  2. Russell

    Well, after finally discovering the video of the Greens’ launch I was disappointed. If you’re going to copy the big parties, with an entrance fanfare etc, you need to do it properly – this one looked daggy and amateurish.

    Then the area she was standing in looked poky and there was a distracting backdrop, and the camera was somewhere above her. There were no close-ups. Very boring.

    There were too many words – half that many would have been better. That kind of speech needs to be nearly as concise as dot points. “The Greens have achieved this, this and this. Our goals are this, this and this and in the next parliament we will introduce legislation to do this, this and this”

    I did like the Gandhi quote – a nice Greens touch. I think she should have clearly and concisely gone through the senators up for re-election and said what they would be working on – she did specifically mention them, but it was sort of lost.

    I may be one of the few people who think Christine Milne is a better communicator/leader than Bob Brown, but I think this campaign launch was a missed opportunity – not enough impact.

    That said, I may vote Greens 1, ALP 2 after all, because I think the LNP are going to win and my preference vote for the ALP won’t matter. (Realistically, it will be people who blame the ALP for not stopping the boats who will vote them out, not people like me!) And I’ve heard a couple of commentators gloating about the Greens vote being down. So a vote for Christine may be called for.

    I would feel adequately compensated for having to give a preference vote to the ALP by Rudd losing his seat. Poetic justice would be done.

  3. Graham Bell

    Kevin Rudd’s break in campaigning to be briefed on the deteriorating Syrian situation was definitely not a political stunt, it was absolutely necessary (and let’s all hope and pray that a new general war does not break out – a forlorn hope though). However, ‘every cloud has a silver lining’ and Kevin Rudd struck it lucky when this happened right in the middle of the local election in which he is taking part. Another politician who had a stroke of political good luck when a great tragedy happened was the failed Emperor George II The Fool at the time of “9-11″. I’m not drawing comparisons – just saying, that’s all.

  4. Nick Caldwell

    The Daily Telegraph appears to have located a new low in News Limited’s election coverage. I won’t link to it as the PM’s office has rather unambiguously described it as defamatory.

  5. Luxxe

    The Tele is defending the article – IF the item you refer to is the one where the Tele outlines that Kevin Rudd “never mentioned” that his “suspending the campaign” involved partly Syria briefings, but also involved an afternoon filming an episode of “Kitchen Cabinet” with Annabel Crabb … Kitchen Cabinet is a hit, so absolutely warranted as part of campaigning I would have thought (provided there is no lame riffing on shaking the sauce bottle!). And Tony Abbott is appearing in an episode as well. Nothin’ to see here!

  6. Graham Bell

    If Kevin Rudd was being filmed with Annabelle Crabb on the same day as he was being briefed on the Syrian situation and its likely consequences for Australia, that’s fine by me; it gave a bit of lighthearted balance to a day when he was concentrating on his very serious duty of preventing or minimizing danger to us all.

  7. Nickws

    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/federal-election-2013/kevin-rudd-denies-delaying-syria-briefing-for-annabel-crabb-show-20130824-2sj2y.html

    The Prime Minister’s campaign headquarters put out a statement late on Saturday denying News Ltd suggestions that he delayed the Syria security briefing for the ABC’s Kitchen Cabinet.
    The statement said: “We understand that The Sunday Telegraph is intending to report that the Prime Minister delayed a national security briefing on Syria in Canberra today because of a previously arranged media commitment in Brisbane.
    “This is wrong.”

    I don’t think they’re going as far as accusing the Sundy Terragroiph of defamation, but if the paper explicitly links this story to images of death and destruction in MUSLIM Syria, then, yes, I understand their concern about the continuing cockfuckery from Murdoch (one big tell will be if the Herald Sun bothers going as hard on this as the Terra).

  8. Thrawn

    The issue is that somehow all media from around noon today (News, Fairfax, ABC, Guardian) reported Rudd as essentially urgently being called away to Canberra for the Syria briefing.

    When in fact he was heading to Brisbane for what is really another campaign event before proceeding onwards to Canberra.

    I don’t know if the media misunderstood or else they were somehow mislead.

    The claim is if in fact Rudd’s team mislead the media as to make Rudd appear more ‘in control’ and Prime Ministerial. Reporting it as ‘today the Prime Minister is heading for a TV shoot in Brisbane before heading to Canberra for an evening Syria national security briefing’ just doesn’t sound quite the same.

  9. Lefty E

    The real issue is the Murdoch media spinning invented negatives about Rudd, while hiding Abbott’s dodgy policy announcments (PPL,Shop the boats) and lack of costings before they get laughed off stage.

    Its so bad now that a spectre of illegitmacy hangs over Abbott: the installed man. Murdoch’s muppet.

    Evidently Murdoch doesnt rate Abbott very highly – doesnt reckon he can pull this off without a tornado of bullshit giving him wings.

  10. wmmbb

    I thought the content of Senator Milne’s speech was for the most part good. I am not interested in the staging and the theatrics. If I want that I will go and see Tosca at the Sydney Opera House. Apparently, all the Greens policies have be fully costed.

    Have the major parties officially launched their campaigns yet?

    Isn’t the briefing on Syria completely irrelevant and unnecessary, for either Mr Rudd or Mr Abbott, given that they will smartly salute and follow instructions from the United States? Good soldiers, both.

  11. Terry

    According to Sydney sources who wake up with The Alan Jones Show, he received calls from several aggrieved voters this week who managed to Vote 1 above-the-line for the Liberal Democrats in the NSW Senate. With the Liberal Democrats at “A” on the long ballot paper, they assumed that this was casting a vote for the Liberals, who were in fact at “Y” on the ballot paper.

    Could we see extended discussions of Freidrich von Hayek’s theory of constitutional order in the Senate in the new parliament?

  12. Charlie

    The question of ‘validity’ the serious Syria briefing could be answered by the coverage of the briefing as a photo opportunity. If photos, then another Ruddashian moment. If not, then serious.

    The ‘break in campaigning’ was all over the news, so it must have been well trumpeted by his media team aiming to generate a statesman moment. Intentionally misleading?

    I’d question doing the Crabb show doing a campaign. The show works best on the low key, behind the scenes, getting to know the person thingo. That is not likely to happen in a campaign!! Questionable use of supposedly scare ABC dollars.

    On to more serious matters: what is the AFL’s problem. Are they so insecure about the position of AFL and the money paid for media rights that they are going to beat up the Bombers, just to make a point?

  13. Terry2

    It occurs to me that we have a particularly onerous additional responsibility on 7 September : if we comply with the dictates of Rupert Murdoch and elect a conservative government, Col Allan can return to the USA a hero and collect a performance bonus from his boss. But if it goes the other way, he misses out and will likely be sent to the News Ltd naughty corner.
    Gosh what a responsibility !

  14. Moz of Yarramulla

    Terry@11: I always knew his listeners were a asses. Apparently they’re asses who think they’re donkeys “)

  15. Luxxe

    Rudd was rattled on Insiders this morning and much less articulate than usual.

  16. Thrawn

    “The question of ‘validity’ the serious Syria briefing could be answered by the coverage of the briefing as a photo opportunity. If photos, then another Ruddashian moment. If not, then serious. ”

    There’s a news footage of the ‘briefing’ now. Not only is there ‘photos’, it appears that there’s more media crew in the room than there is people in the actual briefing.

  17. Brian

    Luxxe, I thought he did OK given the rubbish that’s being thrown at him.

  18. Terry2

    Luxxe @15: Rudd was put through a real inquisition, almost a confessional of his past failings, which is precisely what Barrie Cassidy is there to do. I think he came through well and I wonder if Abbott will be prepared to subject himself to and incisive and probing interview in Insiders next week; don’t hold your breath.

  19. Russell

    “I thought the content of Senator Milne’s speech was for the most part good. I am not interested in the staging and the theatrics.”

    Two things: not many people will listen to a 20 minute speech via a fixed camera which can’t really show you the speaker’s face. You want people to watch and listen. At the end, you would want an undecided voter to be able to say what the two or three main points/policies were. I don’t think that would be possible after watching that video.

    Second – it’s a once in a three year occasion to show your difference to the other parties, so why ape the conventional format? Wouldn’t it have been better (given the nature of decision making in the Greens) to have has all the Greens MPs sitting in a semi-circle behind her, and maybe having the ones coming up for re-election speak for a minute or two on what they achieved in the last parliament and what they want to work on in the next? Maybe they could have opened with live music? Missy Higgins (an LP favourite)?

  20. duncanm

    Lefty @ 9
    “The real issue is the Murdoch media spinning invented negatives about Rudd”

    That’s right.. Rudd is actually a really nice guy.

    (facepalm)

  21. Tyro Rex

    I think whether Rudd’s a nice guy is neither here nor there. It’s whether he is a capable leader and what his policies are that counts. All points the News Ltd sewer have continually spun bullsh*t about.

  22. wmmbb

    Russel @19

    To maximize the vote, presentation matters.

    Reading Tony Abbott’s speech this evening on the Liberal Party website, it seems to me that spin has taken over.

    Rather than a slick sloganfest , I would prefer a real conversation of the perception of problems and the proposed public policy remedies, allowing for the inevitable palaver and boosting the troops and so forth.

    I am doubtful whether Tony Abbott and the Coalition accept the reality of climate change. Bernard Keane can see no difference in both major parties approach to the budget deficit. No doubt other commentators will divine from the rhetoric and PR other meanings on the actual policy settings proposed.

  23. Graham Bell

    TyroRex @ 21:
    I’ll second that motion.

  24. Katz

    The Liberal launch had all the sincerity and panache of a pyramid scheme product promotion.

  25. Graham Bell

    For something well above the level of what is dumped on us by the liars and spinnnnners:

    http://www.abc.net.au/radionational/programs/futuretense/has-democracy-reached-a-tipping-point3f/4883516

    Katz@24:
    Funny you should mention that ….
    What else can you expect from a faction/”party” that is now threatening us with a Ten Year Plan of even more Howardism: do nothing when decisive action is needed …. and EITHER ruthless action OR downright stupid action when steadfastness and patience are vital.

    Add that to Joe Hockey’s promise to have an LNP government renege on its obligations to ordinary citizens, which he despises and calls a sense of “Entitlement”, despite the mug taxpayers having already paid through the nose and up-front over the years to have those obligations fulfilled!!! .

    Trust? Why should I trust a government that has taken MY money and is now saying I am not entitled to get a watered-down share of it back …. and is probably plotting to share MY money with its rich cronies and its foreign pals. Malcolm Fraser was right all those years ago: we should hide our money under our beds before the government pinches it.

    Trust? Pig’s what!!

  26. Katz

    On Radio National Abbott defended his discriminatory PPL giveaway as “work entitlement”.

    How can this be when it is funded by tax payers? Work entitlements are paid for by employers, not tax conscripts.

    On a more general point, Abbott is attempting to be affable with as much credibility as Dr Jekyll in mid-transmogrification to Mr Hyde.

  27. paul burns

    An incisive and probing interview of Abbott on Insiders? I won’t hold my breath for that. But an interview where he’s not asked any hard questions or is allowed not to answer them. Which is what we’ll get. The pro-Coalition bias on Insiders is now so obvious its not worth watching.

  28. David Irving (no relation)

    Katz, I was only half-listening to Abbott this morning, but I did notice he spent a lot of time banging on about the PPL scheme the public service, and the ABC in particular, have. Apparently it’s quite generous, and Our Tony thinks the rest of Straya should have it as well. At our expense, of course.

  29. faustusnotes

    Palmer United Party will introduce tax breaks on “entertainment and business.” That should make Rudd’s next trip to Scores a little cheaper for him!

  30. Terangeree

    I don’t know about the other newspapers in the 65% ownership group, but the Brisbane paper’s “Opinion” pages this morning were devoted to a transcript of Abbott’s campaign-launch speech over the weekend.

  31. Terry

    Just got the Queensland Senate ballot paper. 36 parties, starting with the Animal Justice Party at “A”, and ending with the Secular Party of Australia at “AJ”. Thankfully, as a major party voter, I just have to put a 1 above the line for my party of choice, rather than spending many hours wondering who I will put in a 1-82 order.

  32. Martin B

    Major party voters might not need to think about how their preferences are distributed in (most) House seats but they matter in the Senate. ‘Just putting a 1 above the line’ got Steve Fielding elected rather than a Green in 2004 and may see James Blundell of KAP elected instead of Adam Stone of the Greens this year, possibly giving Abbott enough Senate votes to repeal carbon pricing and amend IR legislation.

    Presumably Terry actually does support KAP over the Greens but it is not true that major party voters don’t need to worry about preference distribution.

  33. Jacques de Molay

    The Liberal launch had all the sincerity and panache of a pyramid scheme product promotion.

    After seeing the end of it I now understand why Abbott has his daughters out on the campaign trail with him as often as possible ;)

  34. Terry

    Katter is sound on IR legislation. Also, his party is not locked in a battle to the death with ALP Left MPs for inner city electorates.

    Labor needs to be very wary about giving a leg up to those who are committed to their destruction as a major political party.

  35. Terry

    Anyway, the carbon tax is history whoever wins office. Kevin Rudd said yesterday on Insiders that it was a mistake on the part of the Gillard government to introduce it, and Labor if re-elected is committed to repealing it in favour of an ETS.

  36. Russell

    “those who are committed to their destruction as a major political party.”

    The Murdoch press? I think of the Greens as being committed to a progressive program and wiling to work with any party to further that program. As the ALP becomes a more and more reactionary party those opportunities will be fewer, but I don’t think of the Greens as being committed to the destruction of the ALP, who are capable of doing that themselves.

  37. Terry

    Perhaps you have “The Greens” as concept mixed up with the people who consistently blocked Labor legislation over the last four years, and whose leader threw Julia Gillard off a cliff in February this year, leading to her losing the ALP leadership.

  38. Rocky

    That’s what lead to Gillard losing the leadership? I have two words for you: Kevin Rudd.

    And if Labor’s going to cosy up to someone like Katter who denies that gay people even exist in his electorate, then Labor is going even further down the drain.

  39. Terry

    The Greens have a preference deal with the biggest mover of coal shipments through the Great Barrier Reef, so the question of glass houses and stones perhaps arises here.

  40. Rocky

    Terry, you were talking about Labor’s battle for inner city seats. I live in one of those and Labor is on the nose. They’ll still win. But there’s two reasons they’re disliked; their asylum seeker policy and Rudd’s undermining of Gillard. And that’s from people who don’t even much like Gillard.

    Preferencing Katter doesn’t help in those seats at all. And it’s a pretty poor debating point to go all, “but they’re doing it too”.

  41. Terry

    Preferencing Katter in Queensland is about Capricornia, not Melbourne, and Labor will not win office without seats in regional Australia. The issue withe The Greens is not that they make preference deals with parties with dubious elements in their platform, but the air of self-righteousness with which they judge everyone else who does so.

    At the end of the day, they are another political party, not some kind of millenarian force that will cleanse the nation with their own sense of moral purity. After forty years, I suspect The Greens are yet another “old party”.

  42. Casey

    Granted, this guy doesn’t have much to do in the Embassy but, WUT?

    http://www.theguardian.com/media/video/2013/aug/26/julian-assange-mimes-john-farnham?CMP=twt_fd

  43. Terry

    Also, the question that remains unanswered here is why it was Christine Mline who abandoned Julia Gillard’s leadership in February, given that Gillard was in such a precarious position? As she was one of the very few Caucus members by that time who did not favour taking a harder line on The Greens, it looks like a cynically expedient act of political bastardry.

  44. Rocky

    As opposed to all the Labor parliamentarians who abandoned her in an act of desperation? And Rudd who white anted her for three years? But, no it’s all Milne’s fault.

    The reason I mentioned inner city seats is because you referenced them in terms of Labor having to battle to win them. And just to clarify; I expect the Greens to behave like politicians too. But, don’t go blaming them for the way Gillard was treated.

  45. Rocky

    Just to add; Gillard wouldn’t have had to rely on the Greens if it hadn’t been for Rudd’s behaviour.

  46. Paul Norton

    Voting above the line for Labor in the Senate in Queensland amounts to a #1 vote for Chris Ketter of the Shop Assistants Union with preferences to Katter’s Australian Party. Labor supporters who have sufficient advantages of education, information and communication skills to be able to cast a below the line vote that would benefit more progressive Labor candidates and more progressive non-Labor candidates, yet who still choose to vote above the line, invite the obvious judgements.

  47. Paul Norton

    And blaming the Greens for Labor’s internal travails of the past three years is intellectually on a par with blaming Israel for the tragic events in Syria over the same period.

  48. Terry

    Paul, I think you overstate the significance of quixotic gestures in the Senate as a marker of personal belief. The kind of obsessive-compulsive behaviour that prevails among political tragics on social media is not how most of the electorate conduct themselves i.e. Labor will get 2-3 Queensland Senators whether or not I defy the party ticket and put Claire Moore (who I personally like) No#1 and then need to fill out the other 81 squares.

    On that basis, how sure are you that Adam Stone is a more progressive Greens candidate than Sandra Bayley or Stuart Yeaman, who are #2 and #3 on the Greens ticket? If you vote #1 for Adam Stone, you are basically following the Greens’ diktat. I don’t see that as a problem, but I don’t seek to lecture Greens voters about their choice of candidates, which is very different to how many Greens’ supporters approach the ALP, as if they are somehow de facto members by virtue of superior moral conscience.

  49. Terry

    At the end of the day, people on the left identify – or at least should identify – with some collectivist principles. Otherwise you become ultra-libertarians, like the Wikileaks Party.

  50. Terry

    BTW, I know of plenty of people who blame Israel for what is happening in Syria. A few of them may even be in the NSW Branch of your party.

  51. Paul Norton

    Terry, I’d be most disappointed if people in the NSW Greens allowed themselves to be influenced by Shaoquett Moselmane of the NSW Labor Right.

  52. Terry

    I was thinking of someone who found out a few facts about the former GDR

  53. GregM

    I was thinking of someone who found out a few facts about the former GDR

    Or not, as the case may be.

  54. PhilL

    Hi there
    Just wondered if there was any psephologist on this forum with a particular interest [knowledge] in the senate…
    Lets imagine a state where 6 senators are standing for renewal. The Cat party currently as three senators, the Dog party has one and the Rat party has two. All three parties are running candidates this time around as well as many other contenders, but even though these other contenders might spoil the game with their ticket preferences, none of them has a real chance of getting a senator elected in this state.
    My first preference is for the Dog party, but I know they only have a real chance to get one single senator in. The Cat party has been disappointing, but they are my second choice. I definitely do not like the Rats, but on current polling they really have a chance of picking up a third seat at the expense of either Dogs or Cats. Now, my questions.

    1) Does it make any difference to the chance of the first candidate on the Dogs list being elected senator if instead of voting 1 for Dogs above the line, I vote 1 for Dogs candidate 1 below the line?
    2) Suppose I vote below the line and I vote 1 for first Dogs candidate and 2 for the third Cats candidate ( I believe the first two candidates on the Cats list have got a good chance to get in without my vote). Will my second preference still count if the Dogs candidate is elected or will it only count if he is eliminated?
    3) What strategy would you recommend given that I definitely want to see the first Dogs candidate elected and I also wish to minimise the chance of the Rats picking up a third seat?

  55. Chris

    Media Watch had some good coverage of the newscorp articles on Rudd and their quite organised campaign on his character.

    http://www.abc.net.au/mediawatch/transcripts/s3834127.htm

    I hadn’t realised that they’d portrayed him as Hannibal Lecter in one of their cartoons!

  56. Martin B

    the people who consistently blocked Labor legislation over the last four years

    Name a single item of ALP legislation that was blocked by the Greens in this parliament.

    whose leader threw Julia Gillard off a cliff in February this year, leading to her losing the ALP leadership.

    This is nonsense. The Greens withdrawal from the agreement had no impact on the ALP internal stoush or on the opinion polls that led to it. in fact according to people like you it probably helped the ALP.

    This is “make up s_t about the Greens” stuff.

    At the end of the day, they are another political party, not some kind of millenarian force that will cleanse the nation with their own sense of moral purity.

    Obviously. As I’ve said before it is politically advantageous for the Greens to talk up themselves as a party of principle, but that is largely rhetoric. OTOH it is also largely rhetoric for ALP supporters to talk of them as being ‘self-righteous’ or hypocritical (especially when describing acts that are seen as a mark of political maturity in the ALP.)

    Preferencing Katter in Queensland is about Capricornia, not Melbourne, and Labor will not win office without seats in regional Australia

    I fully understand the political logic as seen by the party. That is not at all the same thing as saying that there are no dangers to it or that ALP supporters should follow it unquestioningly by ‘just voting 1′.

    Yes Katter is better on IR than the Libs. But are you confident they will not support any of the Libs IR proposals? And they will certainly vote to repeal carbon pricing.

    It is unlikely that the ALP will have a big surplus to distribute, that this will result in the election of KAP and that this will be the swing vote in the new Senate. But the chance is not zero, it is real, and if it happens ALP supporters who ‘just vote 1′ will have questions to answer.

  57. Martin B

    Now, my questions.

    1) No.

    2) One quota of votes is used to elect the D candidate. Any votes above this are transferred as a surplus. Thus if the D candidate gets exactly 1.00 quotas your second preference is not used, while if the D candidate gets 2.00 quotas your second preference is transferred as half a vote.

    3) it is difficult to make strategic decisions about Senate voting because results depend on the order of the exclusion of candidates, which obviously depends on how everyone else is voting. The best bet is just to give preferences as honestly as you can.

  58. Brian

    People may be interested in Steve Austin talking with Kerry-Anne Walsh on Stalking Julia Gillard.

  59. faustusnotes

    Terry, on a previous thread you complained vociferously that the greens were idealistic and immature. Now they are an “old” party as cynical and tactically bloody-minded as the rest. Can you get your story straight?

  60. Terry

    It is unlikely that the ALP will have a big surplus to distribute, that this will result in the election of KAP and that this will be the swing vote in the new Senate. But the chance is not zero, it is real, and if it happens ALP supporters who ‘just vote 1′ will have questions to answer.

    Oooh scary! ALP supporters who ‘just vote 1′ will be about 99 per cent of them, which is about 4.5 million voters.

    The ALP has factored in the possibility that its preferences may see a KAP Senator in office. Katter himself has been in the Federal Parliament for about 20 years and is quite a known quantity – socially conservative, economically protectionist, pro-union. KAP is a party for men who roll their own cigarettes, own utes and listen to country music, which includes a lot of active unionists in rural and regional Australia. From Labor’s point of view, The Greens represent the bigger risk.

    The talk here is as if there is the prospect of some kind of broad left coalition between Labor and the Greens on the horizon. The best hope of that was with Gillard as ALP leader, given her Socialist Forum background. And that, of course, all ended in tears on the floor of the 43rd Parliament, culminating in Milne abandoning Gillard in February 2013.

    On the union side, it is only the NTEU who are entertaining this prospect, and they will be utterly marginalised in the ACTU after their approach to this election campaign. The rest are holding back on donations because they dislike Rudd (like many posters to this site). They will all be on board under new leadership.

  61. Paul Norton

    Terry @60:

    Katter himself has been in the Federal Parliament for about 20 years and is quite a known quantity – socially conservative, economically protectionist, pro-union. KAP is a party for men [my emphasis - PN] who roll their own cigarettes, own utes and listen to country music, which includes a lot of active unionists in rural and regional Australia.

    By itself this is quite enough, but then there’s this:

    During their 1964 Australian tour, The Beatles were pelted by eggs from some unknown assailants. Katter, then a university student, later came forward and admitted his involvement, in what he explained was an “intellectual reaction against Beatlemania.”

    In 1996, Katter supported his National Party colleague Bob Burgess against critics after Burgess made controversial comments including a characterisation of Australian citizenship ceremonies as “dewogging”. Katter described critics of Burgess as “little slanty-eyed ideologues who persecute ordinary average Australians.”

    In 1997, Katter advocated changing the Child Support Scheme to lessen the financial maintenance obligations for non-custodial parents. He claimed there was an “anti-male bias” in the scheme, and that “in 90 per cent of cases the bloke has done nothing wrong [and] the woman was at fault”.[13]

    An opponent of the tougher gun control laws introduced in the wake of the 1996 massacre in Port Arthur, Tasmania, Katter was accused in 2001 of signing a petition promoted by the Citizens Electoral Council (CEC), an organisation that claims the Port Arthur massacre was a conspiracy.[14]

    He is critical of climate change and has opposed enacting legislation to control emissions. “I mean, if you could imagine 20 or 30 crocodiles up there on the roof, and if all that roof was illumination, and saying that we wouldn’t see anything in this room because of a few croco-roaches up there”, he continued, “are you telling me seriously that the world is going to warm because there’s 400 parts per million of CO2 up there?” [Katter has also described the environmental movement as "a cancer" that has to be cut out. - PN]

    On 7 September 2010 Katter announced his support for a Liberal/National Party coalition minority government.

    In November 1989, Katter claimed there were almost no homosexuals in North Queensland. He promised to walk backwards from Bourke if they represented more than 0.001 percent of the population.[22] Katter voted against the Rights (Sexual Conduct) Act, 1994/ {{{4}}} (Cth), which decriminalised homosexuality in Tasmania.[23] In August 2011 Katter said the prospect of same-sex marriage “deserves to be laughed at and ridiculed”.[24] The following week, his half-brother Carl, an open homosexual, spoke to the Ten Network, saying of Katter’s comments “It’s hurtful, it’s dangerous, it’s damaging, and it’s really inappropriate.”

    Terry @60:

    From Labor’s point of view, The Greens represent the bigger risk.

    Draw your own conclusions.

  62. Terry

    But Paul, you are carrying on as if Katter is satanic but Palmer is OK. As was quite apparent at yesterday’s National Press Club event, the two of them are two sides of the same coin.

    The politics of inner Melbourne are not those of regional Australia. And at any rate, the battle for Melbourne makes it more clear than anywhere else the extent of the emnity that now exists between Labor and the Greens.

  63. Terry

    Interestingly, the KAP candidate in my electorate is a woman, as is the PUP candidate, so perhaps the gender divide in these minor parties is overstated. I think it would be fair to assume, however, that most KAP voters are male.

  64. Paul Norton

    But Paul, you are carrying on as if Katter is satanic but Palmer is OK.

    1. My comment didn’t mention Palmer. It was a response to your post that carried on as it the Greens are satanic but Katter is OK.

    2. The Greens Senate ticket in Queensland is preferencing Labor ahead of both KAP and PUP.

  65. Katz

    Terry:

    The politics of inner Melbourne are not those of regional Australia. And at any rate, the battle for Melbourne makes it more clear than anywhere else the extent of the emnity that now exists between Labor and the Greens.

    But the result of this enmity in Melbourne will be that progressive ideas will be strengthened, not weakened. In the short term, this struggle may weaken progressive political popularity. But that is inevitable when ideas encompass new forces and realities rather than swaddle themselves in nostalgia.

    The Australian Shearers Union was a driving force in the ALP until economic and technological change drove them out of the cockpit. Participants in Melbourne’s knowledge economy have different needs and priorities.

  66. PhiL

    Martin B @ 57

    Thanks for answering my questions

  67. Martin B

    From Labor’s point of view, The Greens represent the bigger risk.

    So risky that they’ve given them a high preference everywhere else.

    This analysis is nonsense. The ALP is not preferencing KAP because they like the idea of a KAP senator, but because – as Terry himself alludes to – because they think that they will get more in lower house votes than they need to risk in Senate votes.

    Whether they have made the right decision here or have undervalued the risk to the Senate is very much another question.

    the battle for Melbourne makes it more clear than anywhere else the extent of the emnity that now exists between Labor and the Greens.

    Personally I would say that the extent of enmity is shown by the continual invention of fact, recycling of boring stereotypes and constant framing of everything in Manichaean terms. Of course that is mostly coming from one side of the argument.

    Fortunately there are more sensible proponents in both parties who understand that the Greens and ALP are separate parties with separate interests that will often be in conflict but also will often be in harmony and mature approaches to politics don’t let previous conflict get in the way of profitable cooperation whatever the excessive public rhetoric (from both sides) might say.

  68. Martin B

    The Greens Senate ticket in Queensland is preferencing Labor ahead of both KAP and PUP.

    Yes, the difference between the Greens ‘dirty preference deals’ and those of the ALP is that the Greens have recommended preferences to parties of the right only in seats where those parties have no chance of winning where the ALP has directed preferences to parties of the right in positions where those parties do have a chance of winning.

    Note that this is a pragmatic argument, not a moralistic one.

  69. Helen

    In 1996, Katter supported his National Party colleague Bob Burgess against critics after Burgess made controversial comments including a characterisation of Australian citizenship ceremonies as “dewogging”. Katter described critics of Burgess as “little slanty-eyed ideologues who persecute ordinary average Australians.”

    How sad that Katter would make a statement like that, throwing his own people under the bus. “Wogs” such as the Afghans from which he springs, far from being some new scary phenomenon, have been building regional Australia from the get-go. He must know this, yet he chose to say that.

    “I mean, if you could imagine 20 or 30 crocodiles up there on the roof, and if all that roof was illumination, and saying that we wouldn’t see anything in this room because of a few croco-roaches up there”, he continued, “are you telling me seriously that the world is going to warm because there’s 400 parts per million of CO2 up there?”

    I don’t even. People try to portray the Greens as off with the fairies, while the Right get a free pass to make statements like that.

  70. Martin B

    On the subject of Katter’s IR credentials I note that while he voted against Workchoices in 2005, he voted in favour of Reith’s Workplace Relations Act in 1996. So the idea that Katter will always support the ALP line on IR seems not to be based on fact.

  71. faustusnotes

    This pattern is so old as to have become a boring cliche.

    Between elections: the Greens are a bunch of irresponsible idealists who cannot make good policy because they are too busy being ideologically pure

    [with the Minority Government corollary: the Greens sank Gillard by forcing through electorally unappealing laws]

    At elections: the Greens are a bunch of cynical, calculating realists who show they don’t really believe anything they espouse and are just trying to steal votes by lying to idealistic latte sippers, as shown by their preference deals.

    It’s pathetic and shallow.

  72. Ronson Dalby
  73. Moz of Yarramulla

    Helen, I lost it during the crocodiles. Which may have been the intention. I think the only reply is to tap the side of your head and say “does he claim to have anything up there?”

    One thing with the more rural denialists is that they all seem fascinated by weather forecasts, especially long term ones. Fascinated in the sense of following them, collecting them, comparing different forecasts. All while admitting that they have diddley squat all understanding of how weather forecasting actually works.

    I mean, the SOI is low right now, which means a hot summer. Allegedly. Right, what is that, how does it work, how do they measure it, what are the uncertainties? You don’t know? Is it always right? Does anyone disagree with the science? Oh, it’s not and they do? So you completely disregard it then, because it’s obviously just guesswork? No? You act on it? Well, CO2 levels and global warming, same deal, right?

    Now, I’m not calling anyone irrational, but it seems a stretch to see any consistency of approach there.

  74. Moz of Yarramulla

    (missing link: http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/glossary/soi.shtml)

    And Helen, I’m not suggesting you think that, I’m just ranting.

  75. faustusnotes

    That crocodile part seems to be part of some kind of phenomenon with agrarian socialist voters, in which bizarre thought bubbles are popular. See e.g. every time Joyce opens his mouth. People like Katter either know this, or are constitutionally able to appeal to this strange phenomenon.

  76. Chris

    I don’t even. People try to portray the Greens as off with the fairies, while the Right get a free pass to make statements like that.

    Katter has hardly got a free pass. He’s got pretty strong reputation as belonging to the loony right. Though the more media exposure he’s got probably appears a lot less loony than the standard mainstream caricature.

  77. Paul Norton

    Here’s what Australia’s leading feminist and pro-feminist academics in the field of work and family are saying about the policy merits, not just the politics, of work and family issues in the election.

  78. Paul Norton
  79. Paul Norton
  80. alfred venison

    gruen nation tonight, 8:32. -a.v.

  81. Jacques de Molay

    Followed by The Hamster Decides, av :)

  82. alfred venison

    you got it, Jacques! can’t forget the hamster, either. -a.v.

  83. Chris

    av @ 80 – the Assange video was hilarious!

  84. alfred venison

    hell, it could draw the united states into the civil war, they say!? it could draw in iran, russia, lebanon, turkey, israel. when do the olympics start? -a.v.

  85. alfred venison

    [ah screw it wrong thread above, sorry.]

    well, that was weird ad alright, Chris, don’t know what to make of it, still working on that. i love being able to see all the local election ads i otherwise wouldn’t see, and all the election ads from other countries, too, poland again tonight and for the first time brazil, “the poland of south america”. and i’m always caught off guard by “and i’d like to introduce my son…”. oh, what a classic! -a.v.

  86. GregM
  87. GregM

    And su.

  88. Chris

    GregM @ 86 – it’s not too late for a #spill!

  89. paul burns

    Madness!

  90. mindy

    Heh, thanks for that GregM. I think that comes under the heading of we will never know so there isn’t really much point worrying about it. Andrew Elder was always of the opinion that Gillard could win, just, the election. It may well be that Rudd can do the same. Or that Labor can do it and Rudd loses his seat. I don’t think it will the the Liberal landslide that was predicted months ago but I think that basing anything on polls that far out is silly anyway they generally tighten towards an election. We will just have to wait and see.

    I have my ‘Don’t blame me, I voted for the ABC Interpretive Dance Bandicoot’ badge ready to go.

  91. Val

    You can add me to that list too GregM. I wondered when someone would say it. But as Mindy says we’ll never know.
    On The Conversation, someone compared what happened to Gillard with what happened to Lindy Chamberlain, which I too have thought. I just hope that people do come to see that what happened to her was wrong.

  92. Val

    Though I guess the story is just news ltd trying to undermine the ALP anyway

  93. Chris

    In the seat of Denison the ALP are preferencing the Libs ahead of Wilkie. So it looks like the ALP would rather be in opposition than in minority government with him. The Greens are also preferencing ALP ahead of Wilkie which seems a bit odd.

  94. Brian

    I haven’t had time to read the whole thread above, so apologies if this is already mentiomed.

    Essential research have the election at 50:50, would you believe.

    Crikey have parsed this state by state and have come up with ALP 79, LNP 68 and independent 3 (Wilkie, Katter and Bandt). However this includes WA at an unlikely 50:50 2PP where the sample is small and the error margin wide.

    So you never know! I think people are struggling to come to terms with varying polls and the pollsters are struggling with the complexities and unknowns in accessing representative samples of actual voters..

    Contrary to my impression the audience at Rooty Hill apparently went Rudd 47, Abbott 38 and 19 undecided. Channel 9 and Morgan had Rudd clearly ahead, Channel 7 Abbott.

    I thought Rudd was anxious and waffling, but he may have come across as more genuine than the plastic, studied and rehearsed acting of Mr Rabbit. You can never tell what’s going on inside the heads of voters.

  95. mindy

    @Chris I have never met Wilkie, but apparently those that have wouldn’t be surprised by that arrangement. I have heard that he is not easy to deal with. But then most Federal pollies would be in that basket I think.

  96. paul burns

    Voted pre-poll today. So now the election becomes a spectator sport for me, having thumped Barnaby, Fred Nile and One Nation. Socialist Alliance in the Senate. (Of course.)

  97. silkworm

    Sportsbet has just declared the election over, and paid out $1.5m on an Abbott win. Does this mean that if Rudd wins, then Sportsbet will refuse to pay out?

  98. Chris

    Mindy @ 95 – he may well not be easy to work with (though it was the ALP that screwed him over in the last parliament not the other way around) but still saying that they’d rather have a Libreal elected than Wilkie is quite a statement. Even Wilkie is going to be easy to negotiate with for minority government than a Liberal.

    Contrary to my impression the audience at Rooty Hill apparently went Rudd 47, Abbott 38 and 19 undecided. Channel 9 and Morgan had Rudd clearly ahead, Channel 7 Abbott.

    Of course who people think won the debate and who people will vote for can be quite separate things. I kind of doubt that the debates will have any effect on voting intentions because no one stuffed up. Though Abbott spoke V-E-R-Y V-E-R-Y S-L-O-W-L-Y like he was double checking everything about to come out of his mouth. I wonder if he can keep that up for 3 years!

  99. faustusnotes

    yes, it’s surely only a matter of days before, in the euphoria of becoming catholic dictator of loserdom humble PM of this great nation, he goes off the deep end and some “shit happens.”

  100. alfred venison

    so where are the crack american assistants on loan from the obama campaign? -a.v.

  101. Ronson Dalby

    I wonder what motivates the choices Abbott and his advisors make when choosing policy-launch venues?

    “On the campaign trail today, Opposition Leader Tony Abbott proudly launched his education policy at what he calls a “good school” …..”

    http://www.samesame.com.au/news/local/10167/Abbott-speaks-at-homophobic-school.htm

  102. Ronson Dalby
  103. Ronson Dalby
  104. Paul Norton

    Silkworm @97:

    Sportsbet has just declared the election over, and paid out $1.5m on an Abbott win. Does this mean that if Rudd wins, then Sportsbet will refuse to pay out?

    They can’t refuse to pay out on bets they’ve already taken. I presume from this comment that they are no longer taking bets, presumably to cut their losses on a Coalition win if that eventuates.

  105. Terry

    Sportsbet paid out on the Greens candidate winning the Melbourne state by-election the day before the candidate ended up losing it.

  106. Chris

    Terry @ 105 – as covered by the smh a few weeks ago election betting for sporting agencies isn’t run as a way to make money directly from bets, but as a cheap form of advertising. They know that when they advertise odds they get reported by the news organisations and they gets them customers for other areas of betting. The smh reporters tried to make bets as low as $1000 on the federal election from a few betting places and were all refused. They did this after people had complained to them that bets they had tried to make had been refused.

    By paying out on the federal election and the Melbourne state by-election you mention they probably have ended up with lots of advertising at a pretty low cost even if they are wrong.

  107. Rocky

    Chris, those corporate bookies will also refuse bets as low as $1000 on racehorses, as well. I don’t know how they get away with it.

    And yes, GregM I saw that article. It’s totally unsurprising to me. The ALP are gutless and are reaping what they sow. My perfect outcome would be a narrow ALP win and Rudd losing his seat.

  108. Chris

    Rocky @ 107 – You’d think there’s some element of false advertising when they refuse to take bets like that. And by refusing to take bets it really diminishes the value of using the betting markets as a predictor and perhaps can even be used by the companies to influence public opinion.

    Re: election result – I can’t see how that would be possible given that the ALP need to win seats in QLD if they are going to hang onto government (which I can’t see happening). Anyway I suspect Abbott will be pretty moderate in his first term of government and things won’t turn out as bad as some people have been predicting.

  109. Rocky

    Chris, if you win too much money from them, they’ll refuse all your bets. They’re not that brave.

  110. jules

    Is Tony Abbott a monumental sleazebag or what?

    Not just the “body contact” comment.

    I thought he said “I wish I was 20 years younger” about the netballers. If so it’d still make him twice their age.

    Its being reported as “I wish I was younger”. Did I mishear it? I can’t find the actual video at the moment.

  111. Kevin Rennie

    The British Library has an excellent take on spin in its Propaganda: Power and Persuasion exhibition. The Spin the Voter wheel is my take. Have a go!

  112. Val

    Some people on twitter are calling for people to vote Julia Gillard 1 ( ie informal). Don’t think I’d go that far but it’s another interesting straw in the wind.

  113. Nick

    Just farcical https://twitter.com/1petermartin/status/373222241757962240

    Abbott’s barely had to break a sweat this campaign. A frickin’ quokka could win the election as Opposition Leader in 2013.

  114. Brian

    Nick, Laura Tingle said a while ago that in 2010 the LNP costings were released late on Wednesday, late enough to miss the news cycle for that night and running into the media embargo period, so no chance of Labor advertising to counter. She suggested the same would happen this year.

  115. alfred venison

    they should can that embargo, its past its use by. -a.v.

  116. Ronson Dalby

    The Economist comes out for Rudd:

    “The choice between a man with a defective manifesto and one with a defective personality is not appealing—but Mr Rudd gets our vote, largely because of Labor’s decent record.”

    http://www.economist.com/news/leaders/21584343-kevin-rudd-just-about-deserves-second-turn-lucky-no-more

  117. Tim Macknay

    Abbott’s barely had to break a sweat this campaign. A frickin’ quokka could win the election as Opposition Leader in 2013.

    The quokka could take its family to Tuscany for a holiday during the entire length of the election campaign, arrive back in the evening on 6 September, and still win it.

  118. GregM

    The quokka could take its family to Tuscany for a holiday during the entire length of the election campaign, arrive back in the evening on 6 September, and still win it.

    It’s all very well to say that about quokkas, Tim, but what about an interpretive dance bandicoot? What are its chances?

    Mindy @90 and I both want to know.

  119. anotherbryanfromperth

    So looking forward to the end of the worst government, after Gillard, in Australian history. Hopefully Labor will be in opposition for at least a century.