Dr John Billings, creator of the Billings Method of contraception, has died in Melbourne at the age of 89. The Billings Method involves calculating the times at which a woman is most likely to become pregnant (I won’t go into the details, but I daresay it involves a hand mirror), and abstaining during those times.
Billings remains the only form of contraception with the official (if wary) endorsement of the Catholic Church. This does mean that a free and accessible method of birth control is able to be taught in developing countries where other forms may be hard to come by. It also means citizens of those same countries may choose natural birth control over methods that are more reliable, or provide more protection against sexually transmitted disease. At worst, governments of strongly Catholic countries such as the Philippines take the absurd position of officially opposing any other form of contraception – in that case, in an already impoverished country whose population is expected to double by 2050.
There is, of course, a time and place for all forms of birth control, and `natural’ methods such as Billings are often neglected in the wider debate. Continue reading ‘All In The Timing’
I crawl out from under a day which started with tying coloured balloons to the gate of a local primary school and ended with a particularly boisterous victory party (praise daylight saving!) to deliver this analysis of last night’s results.
In a broad sense, many predictions proved correct – that the swing against the government was not uniform, but differed across seats and areas, and in some places – particularly the traditionally working class Western Suburbs – involved a swing towards Labor. Perhaps Merrick and Rosso’s sentiments weren’t far off the mark when they told Peter Debnam that the reason not everybody goes to the beach every morning is that some of them live in Penrith (for the record, Debnam is officially the Shadow Minister for the Western Suburbs).
However, several results demonstrate that certain trends have completely gone under the radar of most commentators – and perhaps, also, that over-analysis has distorted predictions. The decisions people made were, ultimately, much less complex than many had predicted. In fact, it largely appears most people have voted on local issues and based on their respect for individual local members and candidates. Fancy that!
Read on if, like me, you like to talk (and talk and talk) about these arcane things …
Continue reading ‘The NSW Election: The Washup’
Cross posted on Modia Minotaur
It used to be customary to wait until after an election before starting to speculate on the makeup of the new cabinet, but like every other aspect of this year’s campaign, traditional notions of what happens, how it happens and why just seem inapplicable this time around, and I’m still not quite sure why.
Before speculating on the next NSW cabinet, I should note that, for a government that everyone expects to cruise comfortably to victory on Saturday, an extraordinary number of local candidates – in seats both marginal and safe – are expressing a genuine, non-agenda based pessimism about their individual chances. Usually, candidates have a rough idea of their prospects this close to an election. Many that I know of are so unsure as to their position that they would be no more surprised if they suffered a whopping defeat than if they won a crushing victory.
Thus, both possibilities should always be kept in the back – and perhaps the front – of the mind.
Assuming the government is returned, there will certainly be a significant reshuffle. Morris Iemma will want to make his mark on what was previously a mostly inherited cabinet, and one that is overdue a spring cleaning. He has reportedly been given full sway by factions for this job. Given various mooted demotions, as many as nine positions could be up for grabs (and ostensibly, an absolute minimum of four, given the departure of Sandra Nori, Milton Orkopoulos, Carl Scully and Bob Debus).
Continue reading ‘Shuffling the Deck’
Cross-posted on Modia Minotaur
In an extraordinary live interview on Friday’s Stateline, host Quentin Dempster has challenged Peter Debnam to stand down in favour of his deputy, Barry O’Farrell, who is widely expected to take the leadership soon after the State election (notwithstanding the ridiculous suggestions that Pru Goward would, in an act that would exude desperation, be fast-tracked into the top job). Dempster’s main charge was that Debnam’s open concession of defeat was disingenous – nothing more than a late lunge for protest votes.
I think Dempster’s was a fair assessment. The dynamics change in the final week, as voting intentions solidify, and the message behind this strategy is simple. Sure, we won’t win – but you can help us give the government a bit of a knee in the groin (and perhaps get a few Liberals in marginal seats over the line to boot).
Poor old Debbers. Undoubtedly, he knows as well as we do that his lacklustre leadership is destined to expire in just over a week’s time, and yet, for one more sordid week, he has to keep up the facade. It’s not often that an election is regarded as so comprehensively unwinnable by one side or another, even though the government hardly enjoys the wide support it did at the time of the 2003 election. Protest votes certainly will occur, and while they won’t decide the election, they could indicate to the government who represents the perceived cure to what such voters are protesting about.
Continue reading ‘Balancing Power’
Us NSW Election guest bloggers have been a bit ordinary, haven’t we? I mean – the time when that really interesting thing happened on the hustings – we didn’t cover it! And then there was that other fascinating incident. Where were we? Nowhere! And when that knockout policy was announced – boy, you couldn’t see us for dust!
The truth is, the NSW Election would have to rate as one of the most uninspiring in years. An announcement is made by a Minister, with a beaming Local Member beside them. Media releases are deployed, photos are snapped, the whole thing gets half a page in the local newspaper, and off we go to the next one. Some of these announcements are very good, and deserve more attention. Some are not, and do not. Some of the Ministers are good and decent, and are sincere in their endeavour to advance progressive polices. Some are not. In the end, everything melds into an inexorable, inevitable, unenviable grind, as those who are working on the election campaign itself are well aware. Those working in marginal seats are about to enter the phase which requires the greatest dedication of time, resources and personnel, all to change – or make up – the minds of a few dozen people. For everyone else, it’s a tired jog to the finish line, the winner – excepting the biggest upset since the defeat of Jeff Kennett – already decided.
The real action, I suspect, will occur after the election.
Continue reading ‘On Not Blogging the NSW Election’
In his recent speech to the Fabian Society, NSW ALP General Secretary Mark Arbib described some of the factors making this State election just a little different from every one before it. He did not forsee a uniform swing, but volatility in both safe and unsafe seats. In some cases, three or even four-cornered competitions make the old `two party preferred’ measurement irrelevant. In no seat is this better embodied than Newcastle – once a working class jewel in the Labor crown, now, as Arbib acknowledged, in danger of being lost by the party.
First cab off the ranks is sitting MP Bryce Gaudry. Acknowledged as being a decent local member and a hard worker, he has held the seat for over sixteen years and should, given that this is a deeply traditional Labor seat, be a shoo-in. That would be if he were still the endorsed Labor candidate, which he isn’t, having been dumped by the party (without a rank and file preselection) in favour of Jodi Mackay, a high-profile local newsreader with no previous political experience. Continue reading ‘Areas to Watch: Newcastle and the Hunter’
Howdy, I’m Modia Minotaur, and I’m here to add my proverbial two cents as the NSW election trundles on. Before I start, a quick word of thanks to the good folks at LP for allowing me to spread my Modia Minotaurity over a slightly larger slice of cyberspace than usual. Cheers, comrades!
The Sutherland Shire’s been in the news a lot this year, and in some cases, for issues that are quite representative of the government’s broader concerns. It’s the site of the planned desalination plant, the Cronulla riots and, only a few weeks ago, Peter Debnam’s attempt to politicise Australia Day. I hesitate to use the phrase `belwether’, but the Sutherland Shire isn’t a bad way to start looking at the broader election at a micro level.
The key seats in the area, Miranda and Menai, are often spoken of as `natural’ Liberal seats, which is odd, as they have not been held by Liberals since the landslide of 1999, with Alison Megarrity and Barry Collier sailing into power on a wave of discontent about local overdevelopment issues (Collier ousting then-deputy leader Ron Phillips – reportedly to the delight of a few of Phillips’ colleagues). Both have gained a reputation as solid local members, who have frustrated the Liberal Party by not only confounding this anomaly but building solid margins.
Continue reading ‘Areas to Watch: The Sutherland Shire’
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