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Weekly Whimsy

By Cat Herding Cabal on May 22, 2013

This week’s whimsy is brought to you by 21 Dogs Who Don’t Realise How Big They Are.

enhanced-buzz-2088-1355721976-2

Please share any bits and pieces that have surprised, delighted, intrigued or otherwise positively engaged you.

 


NB: the weekly whimsy thread is a stoush-free zone

Posted in Life, Miscellaneous | Tagged whimsy | 2 Responses

What is Abbott up to?

By Brian on May 21, 2013

Abbott_hockey_300

Max Gillies Smith thought the Abbott budget reply a series of stumbles. These include the promise that peoples “fortnightly budgets will be under less pressure as electricity prices fall and gas prices fall and the carbon tax no longer cascades through our economy.”

Brave statement.

He also took money out of the super system, watered down the NBN and and released the GST genii.

The best analysis I’ve seen of Abbott’s budget reply speech, though, has been by Ian McAuley who asks at New Matilda What Is Abbott Really Up To?

Here’s a question: Why was Tony Abbott’s Budget reply so full of basic economic errors?

It was laden with statistical abuses (figures comparing Costello’s and Swan’s budgets), emotive language disconnected from reality (“skyrocketing debt”, “a spiral, deeper and deeper into debt”, “budget emergency”), sophistry (the implied need for “cost of living relief”), unsubstantiated generalisations (“bad government”) and simple fallacies, including a confusion of inflation with wealth (use of house and share prices as measures of wealth) and the unsupported notion that “smaller government” is the path to economic prosperity. Continue reading “What is Abbott up to?”

Posted in Economics, Politics of the Election | Tagged Budget 2013, budget reply | 40 Responses

Trolling coal: jobs, climate and the Iron Lady

By GuyB on May 21, 2013

The pre-recorded televised tributes have ended. The street parties are over. In Britain, the outrage that swelled in some quarters over the Baroness Margaret Thatcher’s faux state funeral has died away, leaving in its wake the dull, tedious thrumming of politics as usual. Still, the polarisation of the British people remains, festering beneath the surface. Thatcher’s staunchest defenders remember her as her country’s most important and impactful post-war Prime Minister; her staunchest detractors, as some kind of demonic caricature: a milk thief, an unemployment generator, a life destroyer. Everyone else – particularly those who tend to tack left – has been cast intellectually adrift in their attempts to fairly place in history a woman who shattered the glass ceiling, but in the process laid the popular foundations of the modern economic orthodoxy that so many of us today reject. Like it or lump it: you can’t deny that it’s a Thatcherite world out there today.

One of the often glossed over sticky points for the left on Thatcher’s legacy is of course coal. The Conservative Member of the European Parliament Daniel Hannan makes the point for the Telegraph:

What I find bewildering is why the mine closures are cited now as evidence of Tory wickedness. No one, with the exceptions of the SWP and the BNP, wants to recreate a state-owned coal industry today. Indeed, the people who complain most bitterly about the pit closures are generally those who are most against burning coal.

It is on this issue that the Greens and indeed a decent swathe of the Labor Party find themselves in rather closer political proximity to the Iron Lady than they might like: in recent years, the Greens have been vociferous opponents of both coal-fired power and investing in clean coal technology at the expense of cleaner and more renewable energy sources. The Greens would in an ideal world like to see all of Australia’s coal-fired power stations closed down, something that the Baroness indirectly took a step or two towards in the United Kingdom in the early 1980’s through her program of mine closures. Admittedly, climate change was not in the forefront of anyone’s mind in those days, but the fact remains that if Thatcher was alive and in power today in Australia, closing coal mines across the country, it could, in a strange twist of fate, be perceived as something like a progressive policy. Imagine that: Christine Milne and Margaret Thatcher, arm-in-arm.

In truth, Thatcher’s closure of the pit mines and the reaction of both the blinkered right and the blinkered left to them shines a light on the violence that the oversimplification of issues can bring to bear on ordinary working people. Daniel Hannan is apparently “bewildered” by the outrage still felt by people, decades after the Conservative Party’s role in shutting down unprofitable mining operations across the country. I find his bewilderment bewildering – but then I am sure that Hannan and many others like him will never know what it is like for whole families and whole communities to lose their livelihoods in one swift stroke. He is, at heart, a Eurosceptic who is nevertheless more at home in Brussels than Sheffield; make of that what you will.

Similarly, when the Greens talk about the “transition” to a low carbon economy, it seems to me that there is potentially a great deal of trauma concealed within that rather unfairly peaceful word. If Australia were to scale back its export of coal to China and India on principle, for example, and to commence the shutdown of its existing coal-driven energy industry, how many thousands of jobs would be lost? How many communities near coal mines and coal-fired power stations would be rent asunder? Are the people who are dependent on coal industry for their livelihoods just to be collateral damage in the nation’s drive towards a low carbon economy, much in the same way that mining communities reaped the whirlwinds of Margaret Thatcher’s war on unions and unprofitability in the 1980’s?

I appreciate that tens or hundreds of thousands of jobs stand to be created in the green energy industry in the coming decades – but clearly, it is not simply going to be a case of governments picking up people working in coal mining and energy jobs and dropping them neatly into green energy jobs, as if they were so many Lego figurines. Communities and brown energy workers will need support from government and industry, including compensation and retraining to help them adapt to the “new energy world” that is to be shaped by the increasingly interventionist role that the Federal Government may play in the energy market in the future. It is this sort of detail that gets lost in the sorts of black and white “coal is evil” or “coal is Australia’s economic future” messages that have tended to emanate from all of Australia’s political parties in recent times.

Can Australia reduce its emissions effectively without unleashing the unsympathetic economic trauma of the like perpetrated by Margaret Thatcher’s Conservative government on mining communities across Britain? Only time will tell, but the signs are not that promising, and the playing field in any case looks set to be flipped end over end all over again come September, creating even more uncertainty.

Posted in Climatology, Energy, Environment | Tagged Coal, Daniel Hannan, Margaret Thatcher | 62 Responses

Climate clippings 74

By Brian on May 20, 2013

The weekend was a bit ordinary for me, but as supercoach Wayne Bennett says, if you can’t say anything nice say nothing. That’s how he addressed his troops after the thrashing they got in the previous week. This week they creamed the opposition!

This CC concentrates on climate mitigation, the practical stuff, rather than science, observations and future predictions. What I’m stepping around at the moment is politics, policy, opinion etc.


1. Renewables in surprising places

This image at Clean Technica indicates the potential of renewable energy. Please note that the amounts for coal etc are total reserves, whereas the renewables are annual.

renewable-energy-reserves

I’m not sure the natural gas is accurate as there is a lot of unconventional gas around. Continue reading “Climate clippings 74″

Posted in Climatology, Technology | Tagged hydro power, renewable energy, Solar power, wind power | 8 Responses

Raising the GST

By Robert Merkel on May 20, 2013

In a sane world, Labor would also be contemplating the possibility of raising the GST. It seems that Joe Hockey, who circle-squaring challenge seems to get greater every time Tony Abbott opens his mouth, is at least broaching the idea, though the seriousness with which this can be taken is possibly indicated by the fact he wants the states to “convince the Australian people” of the need for changes.

Be that as it may, the facts are pretty straightforward. While the idea that Australia faces a “budget emergency” is bullshit, we do have some decisions to make. Australia’s governments do not raise enough tax revenue to pay for the services we want. Over the medium term, taxation is going to have to go up and/or services and transfer payments are going to have to be reduced. There are undoubtedly specific expenditures that we could all pick out for cuts – Collins-Class Mk II is top of my list, as is the billions we are wasting being cruel to asylum-seekers in a futile attempt to wheedle out of the our legal and moral obligations. But, overall, I think I’m on fairly safe territory in suggesting that the consensus opinion among LP readers is that government should be doing more, not less. In that case, we need to pay somehow. And if conservatives want to raise more tax revenue rather than mindlessly slashing services as is their usual wont, so much the better…

Except that nagging little question – who pays?

As was noted at LP back when we marked the tenth anniversary of the GST, the GST is a regressive tax, because the poorer you are, the more of your income you spend rather than save. The exemption of fresh food, along with the compensatory pension increases and tax cuts, meant the net effect on income distribution was minimal. Cuts to the top marginal rate of income tax, before and since, had far more effect in skewing the distribution of income and wealth.

Economists like the GST because it is a relatively efficient tax; however, its economic benefits over income taxes are exaggerated, as John Quiggin wrote some time ago:

More subtly, the same kind of argument applies to the case for preferring taxes on consumption to taxes on investment. If we tax consumption, we are likely to increase savings and therefore have higher income in the future. But that isn’t necessarily a good thing. To assess the impact on economic welfare we need to take into account both the present costs (less consumption now) and the future benefits (more consumption later). Under standard assumptions, these two will approximately cancel out for low and moderate rates of income (RM: I assume JQ meant to say “income growth”)

Given that an Abbott government seems to prefer the thought of GST increases or base-broadening to the mining tax, one can only assume that this is because the thought of the disproportionately well-off shareholders in mining receiving lower dividends offends his sensibilities. As such, I rather doubt an Abbott government would be as attentive to mitigating the impact on the least well-off as the Democrat-prodded Howard government was back in 2001.

It’s not like there aren’t plenty of alternatives. Getting rid off the tax lurks that the rich take disproportionate advantage of, such as abolishing negative gearing, or getting serious about reducing superannuation tax concessions. Reintroducing fuel excise indexation, and/or including petrol and diesel in the carbon price – yes, these are regressive, but that can be compensated for. The states could stop crying poor and introduce land taxes to replace stamp duty, not only raising revenue but abolishing one of the most economically destructive taxes remaining on the books. Or – shock horror – increasing the income tax rates that apply to the best-off.

So, yes, the rate of the GST, and the scope of exemptions, should indeed go back on the agenda. But let’s be serious for a moment and acknowledge that the primary appeal of this particular revenue-raising option to the Tories over the potential alternatives is that it hits the well-off, very-well off and the extremely well-off most lightly.

Posted in Economics, Energy, Policy, Politics, Politics of the Election | Tagged goods and services tax, gst, taxation | 28 Responses

Lazy Sunday

By Cat Herding Cabal on May 19, 2013

Since we don’t live by politics alone (I sincerely hope), what else did people get up to this weekend? Join in, share some tales, regulars and lurkers all!

Posted in Life | Tagged roundtable | 29 Responses

Saturday Salon

By Cat Herding Cabal on May 18, 2013

An open thread where, at your weekend leisure, you can discuss anything* you like.


* Weekly Reminder: Comments Policy | Netiquette FAQ | rinse-and-repeat news-cycle churn/spin should be taken to the Overflow thread

Posted in Miscellaneous | Tagged open thread | 35 Responses

Greenland melt

By Brian on May 17, 2013

You may have seen images like this before, demonstrating the progressive summer melting of the Greenland ice sheet:

image_large_570

Then in July 2012 this happened:

670398main_greenland_2012194-570

The image on the left represents melting on 8 July. By 12 July some 97% of the ice sheet surface was melting. The Carbon Brief (a quality blog) has the story. Continue reading “Greenland melt”

Posted in Climatology | Tagged Greenland Ice, Sea level rise | 10 Responses

Abbott budget reply open thread

By Brian on May 16, 2013

Abbott is about to give his budget reply speech. The word is that he is going to endorse all the Government’s budget savings. Then I expect he will use some cherry-picked numbers to show that the problem is big spending rather than a lack of revenue, then carry on about waste and mismanagement etc.

I’d really like to quote what Gillard said in Question Time today. It was a quote from Abbott in 2003 saying precisely what the leader of HM Opposition should say in his budget reply. It was quoted on RN’s PM program, so I’ll post it when the transcript is up later tonight.

During Question Time the Govt won hands down in debating terms. The Opposition seemed rather gormless by comparison. But that’s not what the electorate hears.

Update from PM:

JULIA GILLARD: When he gives his response to the budget tomorrow night he needs to tell us exactly what he would do. If the tax cuts was not enough how much would he add to it? Once he has told us how much he would add to it he then needs to tell us what he would cut to pay for it?

He should tell us exactly where it is coming from and he should tell us exactly what will be cut to pay for any increase in spending that he proposes.

She was quoting Abbott from 2003.

WAYNE SWAN: The Leader of the Opposition is going to try and skate through tonight, not providing any great detail and he’s going to do that because he knows if he told the Australian people about his plans, he knows, he knows full well they would never accept those sort of cuts, vicious cuts to the bone.

He’s right.

Here’s the ABC’s summary.

Posted in Politics of the Election | Tagged Budget 2013, roundtable | 46 Responses

The best place in the world to be a mother

By Brian on May 16, 2013

It’s not Australia, although we came 10th. Finland, of course!

And, we are told, the scores of the top ten are closely clustered, so we are right up there.

Every year the Save the Children put out a State of the World’s Mothers report. That site has a lot of useful information, but if you are after the full report, honestly you’ll do better with this pdf. I think the summary at Shine from Yahoo! Canada is a good place to start.

The Mothers Index is based on five categories:

    1. Lifetime risk of maternal death
    2. Under-five mortality rate
    3. Expected years of formal schooling
    4. Gross national income per capita
    5. Participation of women in national government

Here we have the top 25: Continue reading “The best place in the world to be a mother”

Posted in Developing world, Economics, Life, Parenting | Tagged Children, Mothers | 11 Responses

Budget expectations 2013

By Brian on May 14, 2013

I’ve gathered together some links to show what some commentators have been saying about the Swan song budget to be delivered tonight.

Starting with Laura Tingle and Alan Kohler we find that Swan’s credibility is shot and it doesn’t much matter what he says in political terms. Voters have made up their minds. Both refer to an interview of Swan by Laurie Oakes which Kohler calls “shockingly contemptuous”. I think the man’s a bully and a political player. If you want to find the interview you can do it yourself.

Kohler thinks the parental leave and climate change policies will be like kidney stones to the Opposition in power.

Laura Tingle is thankful Joe Hockey is preaching the need to end the entitlement mentality, as are some other commentators who should know better. Robert Merkel’s post warned us.

This will require the redefining of the concept of mutual obligation and the reinvigoration of a culture of self reliance.

Some leading Queensland LNP politicians have been spruiking the need for greater self reliance. I’ve heard Abbott on the same theme (which amounts to a one-liner). Be afraid, be very afraid. Continue reading “Budget expectations 2013″

Posted in Economics, Politics of the Election | Tagged Budget 2013, roundtable | 92 Responses

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