Talking about a(n Education) Revolution
With apologies to Tracy Chapman. The Gonski Review into School Funding is to report shortly, and yesterday an Essential Research poll found opinion split largely on partisan lines over the BER projects, but intriguingly with a much more favourable view [...]
Queensland election roundup 1
Before the formal election campaign starts when Parliament is dissolved on February 19, I’m going to keep people updated with a series of Queensland election roundups. The big question, of course, is how politicised things get before the campaign kicks [...]
Queensland State Election 2012: A tale of two campaigns
This is the concluding entry in my scene-setting series of posts on the upcoming Queensland election, which has also been published in Crikey. One of the threshold assumptions in elections in a single member constituency Westminster system is that each [...]
Queensland State Election 2012: The Greens, Katter and Independents
The third and penultimate entry in my series of posts setting the scene for the Queensland election this year. The entire series is collected here. One of the many peculiarities of Queensland politics is the entrenching of the ‘Just Vote [...]
Federal politics in 2012: More leadership speculation?
The year wasn’t very old when we had the first ALP leadership speculation story, courtesy of Bob Hawke’s endorsement of Julia Gillard’s tenure as Prime Minister. Whether or not the former PM was very helpful to the current PM is [...]
Queensland State Election 2012: Links post
My series of posts setting the scene for the Queensland state election due this year is being re-published this week on Crikey. The first instalment is here. In my last post, I looked at the ALP and its chances, and [...]
Queensland State Election 2012: The LNP and its prospects
It’s a rule of thumb that Queensland elections are always interesting, sometimes surprising, and invariably full of colour and movement. Through most of 2011, it appeared that the next state election would depart from that pattern. Campbell Newman’s elevation to [...]
Quick link: Polls show ALP can win with Gillard
At The Drum, Andrew Catsaras has crunched the polling numbers, noting that “since July, the trend has been with the ALP”, and that: the ALP can win the next election – and, yes, with Julia Gillard as leader. … Go [...]
The tide turns for Labor?
In a rather tortuous (or tortured) metaphor on 7 30 last night, Chris Uhlmann proclaimed: The political runes might just be turning Labor’s way. I don’t think runes turn, so it might be better to stick with that tide metaphor. [...]
Is pokie reform a seat-changer?
In Yet Another ALP Leadership Speculation Article, Michelle Grattan claims that some “nervous ALP backbenchers” want to go back to Rudd, abandon pokie reform, and therefore immediately run to an early election which Labor will inevitably lose but will preserve [...]
Nielsen finds Labor would be 52-48 ahead under Rudd
I’ve got big doubts that polls which are based on counterfactuals have the meaning they’re purported to bear, but something must be going on when Nielsen has Labor’s primary vote at 27% but at 42% if Kevin Rudd were leader. [...]
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