Interesting stuff happening in the two federal by-elections tonight. It’s all over red rover for the Nats candidate in Mark Vaile’s old seat of Lyne, Rob Drew, who’s on about 22% of the primary vote - a swing against the Nationals of over 30%. With two thirds of the vote counted, Independent Rob Oakeshott has romped in with nearly 64% of the primary vote counted so far.
The Nats are now down to a historic low of nine seats in the House of Representatives.
In Mayo, there’s a swing against the Liberals of around 11%, with the Greens’ Lynton Vonow polling strongly. So are former Liberal Bob Day and Independent Di Bell. The Libs’ primary is just over 40% and around 20% of the vote has been counted. I don’t know enough about the electorate to say anything about which booths have reported, but you could foresee a scenario where the Libs lose or are run close with a primary like that. It doesn’t appear to have changed much with more booths reporting since I’ve been watching. At the time of writing, the AEC is putting the 2PP at 52/48 Liberals - Greens.
It looks like a smart tactical decision for Labor not to run in either of these safe conservative electorates, and although no doubt local factors are the key to the results, it’ll be fascinating to see how the results are spun tomorrow, particularly since they’re probably going to be roped in with the WA result, whatever that turns out to be. I wonder whether Brendan Nelson spent much time campaigning in Mayo.
You can follow the count at the AEC’s virtual tally room - for Lyne and for Mayo. The Poll Bludger has open threads as well - for Lyne and Mayo respectively.
Update: The Liberals have claimed victory in Mayo. It’s possible but unlikely that postals and other pre-poll and absentee votes might change the picture if Independent Di Bell can get ahead of the Greens’ Lynton Vonow. On votes counted to date the Liberals have 51.74% of the 2PP vote, with the Greens on 48.26%. It’s a big slap in the face for the Libs, whichever way you look at it.
…Was it clever politics for the Liberal Party to preselect one of the (junior) architects of WorkChoices, Jamie Briggs, for the Mayo by-election?
Elsewhere: Pavlov’s Cat isn’t impressed. Tim Dunlop on the spectre of WorkChoices.
As Lord Downer of Cyprus Alexander Downer prepares to dump on the electors of Mayo less than eight months after they re-elected him, reasonable observers might wonder who exactly is treating the voters with contempt:
“I think they’re treating the people of Mayo with contempt if they’re not prepared to run a candidate when they’re the Government of Australia.”
Except on Planet Janet, there’s probably little interest around about Dolly’s musings, presumably concocted over a cigar or two while dreaming about his Hummer. But there is still some interest around about whether Labor should run a candidate in the Mayo by-election that will result from Downer’s resignation from Parliament.
Tim Watts at Tree of Knowledge thinks not, noting Antony Green’s summary of all the times the Libs eschewed the chance to run in by-elections they couldn’t win while in Government. The Poll Bludger suggests the ALP should:
No doubt their decision will be soundly based on research, but if I were them I’d go for it: the electorate that almost put John Schumann in parliament seems an unlikely candidate for an emissions trading scheme backlash, and a relatively good result would help shake the Gippsland monkey off the government’s back.
The media cycle being what it is, I suspect Gippsland’s now ancient history. I’m not sure if The Poll Bludger’s ever been to the Adelaide Hills, but it’s certainly not fertile territory for Labor. Antony Green’s already got a page up on the by-election contest, and he observes: Continue reading ‘No Mayo with that, please, it doesn’t go with my latte’
Folks who read my going on hiatus post last weekend might have noticed I came back this weekend! I’m still in break mode, and in fact I’m off to the beach for a week on Tuesday, heading up north where it’s nice and warm, but I was feeling bloggy today so - because I was in the mood, I did some blogging. While, as noted in a couple of posts here and around the shop recently, a lot of portentous debates swirl around blogging, the baseline should be that it should be fun. Of course there are all sorts of private and public benefits to blogging, but if you’re not enjoying it, then it’s not worth doing. I did want to thank everyone for their kind words in the thread last week, and also observe that the reason why I thought it was a good idea to take a break had nothing to do with that post I wrote about Tim Blair and the concerned feminists of the Australian right, though I do regret the fact that I let some of the animus generated last year lead me into personalising the issue that I was writing about. I expect better of myself. But mainly I just got to the point where I was feeling that some of the frustrations attendant on blogging were outweighing the benefits, so I thought it was time to take a spell.
Continue reading ‘A bientot! II (Scalp not taken edition)’
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Yeah, you might have noticed already. I’m in a Truthiness mood tonight, as Stephen Colbert might say. Remember all the loud denunciations I copped from Harry Clarke, Tim Blair et al et al etc. - all the feminists of total convenience - for not denouncing the female genital mutilation loudly enough? Coz it’s all about teh Islam and threats to Western Civ, etc., and that mob are all on the side of women’s rights, and that manly man of steel John Howard is taking us to war to free Afghani women from burqas. And George W. Bush is going to hunt those Al-Qaeda evildoers down. (And Islam is not a race, and some of my best friends… oops, hang on?) While Laura and Condi look after the oppressed women. Or something… Oh yeah, it isn’t 2003 any more… Remember that word fistula - you might not have read that on teh Blair blog - being a word of three syllables and all. And in Latin.
But I talked about it at the time. Now that Pamela Bone is dead (and God rest her soul, may she be blessed with eternal rest, and may perpetual light shine upon her), where are the voices with the loud condemn? What’s with that Australian crusade for women’s rights in benighted Islamic Middle Eastern countries? After all, we - Dolly Downer and John Howard and Tim Blair and Andrew Bolt and Planet Janet told us so - are all (post?) feminists now. It’s on the citizenship test, dude - and dudette a la 50s pinup style no doubt. (Ps - don’t use that politically correct, activist judge f-word though…)
Well, never mind. Here’s a post from The Global Sociology Blog for the benefit of anyone who wanted to continue highlighting the horrors perpetrated on women in the developing world even if there’s not a convenient culture wars damn the left angle in it. (And that’s not to say that women in the developed world don’t still cop a lot - but there’s something to celebrate about a very large majority of Australians agreeing - at least in theory when asked by pollsters - that women have rights over their own choices and bodies - even if that masks continued gender inequality in oh, so many ways…).
You can donate to Medicins San Frontieres here.
And you might be interested in the fact that rape has finally been recognised by the UN as a war crime, something I wrote about last year, but something the keyboard warriors seem to… well, gloss over is far too kind. Because the fact that women are overwhelmingly the victims of war seems to be recognised neither by the pro-war Right nor the “humanitarian intervention” so-called Left. Continue reading ‘Now that Pamela Bone is dead…’
Glenn Milne’s Sunday columns - since the election - have turned into a weekly chronicle of Liberal disunity. If he’s historically been known as “the poison dwarf”, you have to wonder about who exactly needs an antidote from him these days. His modus operandi is widely suspected to be writing up any “insider” leaks that come his way - and since they never come from the ALP - his column inches are the battleground for the opposition’s leadership wars. He’s become the enabler of the Liberals’ self-destructive pain.
The latest instalment in this chronicle of woe for the Libs is the suggestion that Alexander Downer just has soooooo much to offer the Libs, he’s willing to make the noble sacrifice of turning his back on lucrative private sector opportunities and a chance to sort Cyprus out on behalf of the UN to take a frontbench position - hopefully Shadow Treasurer. Presumably under Turnbull’s leadership, since I can’t see Malcolm stepping down for Dolly. Does anyone really believe that hordes of Liberals are begging Dolly to get back into the fray? (It was suggested on the SBS news last night that Dolly is being drafted back by his admirers.) Or is it more likely that he’s found the private sector fields on offer aren’t as green as he might have believed… and that he doesn’t want Nick Minchin to determine who gets his seat?
Continue reading ‘Dolly for pacifier of Cyprus frontbencher PM!’
… with a bit of help from their friends in the press gallery.
It’s interesting how the script that Brendan Nelson would face a stern leadership test with his budget reply has turned into a self-fulfilling prophecy - due apparently to the desire of Malcolm Turnbull, Peter Costello, Alexander Downer and other unnamed frontbenchers and former frontbenchers to get themselves on record putting some distance between themselves and the silly 5c a litre fuel excise promise. There is, of course, counter leaking - presumably from Nelson’s office - claiming Turnbull was behind the fuel excise cut - all played out in different columns in The Australian, which is indeed starting to read like the Opposition Organ, but not in a good way.
The Libs don’t seem to have any capacity for a disciplined approach to opposition. Despite the claims from Nick Minchin and others that Nelson would bring a “consultative” style to the leadership - in contrast to Howard’s - it appears clear that in the absence of the prize of government they’re incapable of turning their fire on Labor as opposed to scattering it among themselves. Just as some of the shine had rubbed off Swan’s budget, they’ve handed the government two devastating lines of attack - the disunity angle and the fact that they themselves know that their centrepiece budget reply “measure” is a piece of populist garbage and that they were concerned it would tear up their mythical but much cherished “economic management” brand.
Nelson sacking Turnbull would be an absolute disaster for them, for reasons that ought to be obvious. On the other hand, Nelson keeping Turnbull would be an absolute disaster for them, for reasons that ought to be obvious.
A lot of this can be traced back to their continuing failure to adapt to opposition. Continue reading ‘Liberals turn budget reply into… leadership crisis’
Feral Sparrowhawk offers some thoughts on the future of the Liberals, something rather topical at the moment in the wake of Brendan’s big night out in Parliament.
Everyone knows the Liberals are in trouble, with the possible exception of Alexander Downer. However, looking at the discussion, both on blogs and in the MSM, this seems to be perceived to mean: They can’t win in 2010, probably not in 2013. However, the assumption seems to be that at some point the Liberals will be back (possibly merged with the Nationals). Much advice has been given based on the notion that ambitious Liberal leaders should be positioning themselves to lead in 2013 or 2016, rather than now.
I disagree. I believe that 2010 is likely to be the best chance the Liberals will ever have to get back into government. If they can’t win then, or at least give it a decent shake, there will probably never be another Liberal-led federal government in Australia.
A big call I know, but my thesis is that the Liberals are caught between two crises, both of which will likely see them whither in the long term. Every election will become harder to win, and after a while it will become difficult for them to even sustain the position of official opposition.
Continue reading ‘Guest post by Feral Sparrowhawk: They’re (probably) not coming back’
Well, the rumour-mill is off and chugging again that Alexander Downer is about to quit, and some have drawn a similar inference about Peter Costello from his antics in a Budget-day interview.
At times like this, one could almost - almost - regret that the ALP turned away from Communism. Just think, it would be off to the salt mines now for Dolly and Tip!
But seriously, what will the former triumvirate of Howard, Costello and Downer do with their long retirements?
Continue reading ‘Post-parliamentary daze’
Since we don’t live by politix alone (I sincerely hope), what did people get up to this weekend? Join in, share some tales, regulars and lurkers all!
Unfortunately, I forgot to recharge my camera battery, so no pics this week. We’ll have to content ourselves with an image from Keating! The Musical, which I took my mum to see last night for Mothers’ Day (she’s a big PJK fan). Apparently, I’m not alone, as Paul Keating also took his mum to see it. I’d be really interested to know what non-Labor folks would think about it. They’d have been lonely in the audience at the QPAC Playhouse last night, surrounded by a gallery of Labor luminaries from Anna Bligh down. It’s also interesting to speculate whether a hypothetical Howard! The Musical would get much of a run - and I’m not sure Terry Serio would be cast in the eponymous role - his portrayal of Howard was cruel in its verisimilitude. Alexander Downer, in Rocky Horror style fishnets and corset, came off much better.
I also enjoyed catching up with a couple of friends who’d been at the matinee for a drink at The Point on Grey Street at Southbank first, always a good spot for a glass of wine or a cocktail, and while I’m doing recommendations, I went round to some other friends’ place for dinner on their back deck on Friday night and ate a very scrumptious lasagne concocted out of the pages of the Veganomicon - best. cookbook. eva! Today? Well, it’s been a lazy Sunday!
One of the most interesting things about the Australia 2020 summit is an accentuation of a trend that was already evident - the broadening of public focus on long term issues and possible solutions, which I suspect will be one of the enduring contributions of the Rudd government. That’s also having an effect on the media - responses which are flip come to be seen as the professional cynicism they really are, and what can only be described as frenzied outpourings of indignation and higly predictable pontificating indicate only the angst suffered by the relics of the Howard era at the fact that their gatekeeping role is fast evaporating. I think what we’re seeing is the final collapse of many stereotyped stances in dichotomised public debates which were characteristic of the Howard era.
Looking at it in retrospect, a lot of the Howard era rhetoric continued to attack Paul Keating - or at least various myths and perceptions about what his government stood for. That’s evident in some aspects of the revival of the Republican debate. As Paul Norton noted here, the same old arguments have been trotted out, taken out of storage for a rerun of 1999. But, as the comments on his thread from anti-Republicans demonstrate, the same old tactics characteristic of John Howard himself - a narrow, niggling legalism, the summoning up of multiple spectres of doom allegedly flowing from even the most minimalist constitutional change, and quibbles about cost - have themselves been resurrected. I don’t think that it’s worth wasting an ounce of energy or time in rebutting all these phantom charges. Their employment as rhetorical weapons is itself designed as a trap - to narrow and shift the debate onto a field of the anti-Republicans’ choosing. Classic Howard.
Continue reading ‘Straighteners and narrowers’
Dolly Downer actually makes sense for once:
To think the 2010 election would be won by a quick leadership change was “whistling Dixie”, Mr Downer said. To win would require policies and discipline. “They’re going to have to do the hard work, really consolidate their position, and not engage in this sort of indulgence about criticising the leader behind his back.”
Meanwhile, perhaps overdosing on the sound of his own voice after he reportedly spent the weekend leaking against his listening leader, Christopher Pyne - for no apparent reason - makes a stunningly anti-democratic suggestion:
Mr Pyne said he believed the electoral system should be changed so that if a member of the House of Representatives retired, his party could choose a replacement to see out the term.
What are the rest of the mob doing while Nowhere Man wanders the highways and byways of Queensland?
A number of key Liberal figures did not attend yesterday’s shadow cabinet meeting: Tony Abbott, Eric Abetz, Greg Hunt, Nick Minchin, Andrew Robb and Malcolm Turnbull had other commitments.
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One suspects a comedic musical about errant ex-footballer Wayne Carey would be a very black look at the psyche of a certain kind of male (not sure what song from Hairspray the cast might break into when Carey hits his girlfriend with a glass).Â
A less difficult subject for funny songs is the blokey but unthreatening Shane Warne, the former spin bowler with a beer gut, and a, errr, big thing for blondes.
Eddie Perfect, who more than entertained at last year’s Melbourne International Comedy Festival (MICF) with his turn as a kinky Alexander Downer, has returned to MICF in 2008 with a sneak peek at his upcoming Shane Warne: The Musical.
Continue reading ‘Shane Warne: The Musical (We Had To Have)’
Howard might be gone, but Keating! lives on.
For what might be the zillionth time, Keating!, that paean to a certain infamous Labor leader from long ago, is playing again in Melbourne from the 13th to the 24th of February. It features songs, dancing, a drunken Bob Hawke and a totally romanticised portrait of Paul Keating. One suspects Prime Minister “Kev” Rudd will never inspire the same sort of artistic endeavour. Of course, one also suspects “Kev” will be PM a lot longer than PK, but hey Brendan Nelson is looking, cough cough, good. Well, he used to look good in the days when he sported an earring. Radical.
Continue reading ‘Keating!: He’s baaaaaack’
You can really understand the force of the phrase “political tragic� when you reflect on how many Australians would have wanted to spend the weekend before Christmas reading Glenn Milne’s thoughts on the Rudd cabinet, or the weekend before New Years’ Eve reading Kevin Donnelly’s latest effusions on the grave threats to educational standards. That is, of course, no reflection on these two fine gentlemen of the press. No doubt the fault, if fault there is, lies with the country, not with these eminent writers.
So, just as Stephen Conroy was probably hoping to do with his net nanny state announcement, summer holiday torpor provides a convenient opportunity for the news dump.
The political skills of the Liberal Party may be a tad frayed, but are probably still robust enough to realise that dumping on your former Dear Leader and washing your dirty linen in public is unedifying for, well, the public. So it was the holiday season, when the news cycle stops riding so fast, that saw just about every man who used to be in Cabinet (though not Malcolm Turnbull’s dog) open up to certain favoured journos and provide their very own “first draft of history� (and naturally Paul Kelly was one of the magic circle). In this instance, on the APEC leadership shenanigans.
Continue reading ‘It was Newspoll wot lost it’
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