Larvatus Prodeo

It seems that the ALP still can’t lift a political finger in Queensland without the press wizards at The Australian heralding it as a sign of an imminent election. On Friday, they were writing about a “trigger” for a poll, and yesterday the launch of Anna Bligh’s social media campaign website and the announced retirement of Labor MPs Gary Fenlon (Greenslopes) and Speaker Mike Reynolds (Townsville) suggested that we “could be heading for the polls as early as tomorrow”. Looks like they’re wrong. Perhaps if you write a story like this every day, there will be one day between now and August when it will actually prove accurate?

One has to wonder about the depth of understanding of political mechanics and political logic required to write this stuff. While the process of preselecting new candidates for what are important seats – even if they’re Labor held – won’t be “protracted”, it still has to be done. And those candidates need a bit of breathing space to build a profile before a campaign.

And there’s not much point to having a whizzbang brand new shiny campaign website if it doesn’t get some traction and some traffic.

In any case, it’s probably of more interest to assess how effective Anna4Qld actually is. Graham Young isn’t impressed.

It is true to say that the dynamics factoring into the election date have altered since last year. The LNP’s decline in the polls now has them trying to fend off an early campaign, while previously they were rearing to go. But Labor’s not ready for one – Labor support is quite soft, representing more of a “lesser of two evils” factor in light of the daily drumbeat of stories reinforcing dissatisfaction with health in particular. Labor is well aware of the possibility that voters who won’t plump for the Opposition will vote for a Green or another minor party or independent candidate with no second preference, or simply vote informal or stay away from the polls. There’s a fair way to go yet before either party can be really confident. Which is an indictment of them both, needless to say.

Elsewhere: Andrew Bartlett.