Tag Archive for 'Bligh government'

Polls show privatisation hurting Bligh, and Rudd

Published
by
Mark
1 week, 4 days ago
in Federal Elections, Politics, Queensland and State/Territory Elections
. 8 Comments

Possum has obtained the polling conducted by UMR for six Queensland unions on the impact of Anna Bligh’s privatisation plans on Labor’s vote. It’s not good news for Bligh, and he suggests, not good news for Kevin Rudd either:

These figures suggest that the Bligh government’s asset sale plan will reduce the ALP’s two-party preferred vote share at the federal election in Queensland by up to about 2%. That is a significant impediment to Labor winning and retaining seats in Rudd’s home state.

His conclusion is interesting:

That level of generic political outlook suggests that not all is lost for Bligh. When combined with asset sales being the dominant issue that is chasing votes away from Labor, with the union movement agitating for the program to be overturned and with Bligh’s program spilling political consequences across into the federal election sphere — the option of a back flip with a triple pike on the asset sale program must be filling the minds of Labor politicians everywhere.

I suspect that the polling doesn’t properly disaggregate the influences of the actual privatisation decision and the perception that Bligh did an almighty turnaround from her election rhetoric, because the choice between the two options is not a particularly salient one given that they’re inter-related. So a backflip would undoubtedly be good for Rudd (or a bit of old-fashioned distancing, as he did with Peter Beattie’s unpopular council amalgamations). But I suspect the jury is still out as to whether Bligh could turn around her fortunes. Given that she’s not the most flexible politician in the world when it comes to changing course, a new Premier might be the answer for Queensland state Labor.

Teach for Queensland

Published
by
Mark
3 weeks, 6 days ago
in Education, Politics, Queensland and USA
. 113 Comments

The Queensland government is pondering the introduction of the ‘Teach for Australia‘ model into state schools. The idea, trialled in Victoria and inspired by an American programme, is to fast track graduates with Bachelor’s degrees in any discipline into classrooms after six weeks’ training, with subsequent training delivered while they’re in the workforce.

I’ve been teaching at tertiary level for over a decade, I’ve taught Education students, and I’ve got family and friends who are or have been teachers. I don’t think I’d feel at all confident about going into a classroom after six weeks with a PhD as well as a few other degrees! – I’d be very well aware that I know little about child psychology and development, or classroom and behaviour management, let alone bearing the very weighty responsibilities for students’ well being and health and safety. I doubt all that could be taught in six weeks, and I doubt that you can learn it effectively through some sort of apprenticeship model, no matter how many ‘guides’ and ‘mentors’ you have.

University faculties, to my certain knowledge, already have great difficulty placing students on prac because of the additional workload on their classroom teachers, and stories about the difficulties involved are legion from teachers, academic supervisors and education students.

I believe there’s been no evaluation of the Victorian programme yet, and it’s not hard to see this as a simplistic twist on the movie fantasy of idealistic teacher saves poor kids’ lives script. The reality is that, no matter how idealistic, beginning graduate teachers have a high propensity to leave the profession in their initial years, because they’re already not adequately supported. Similarly, what disadvantaged schools need is stability, experience and professional skills in the workforce, and the fact that’s hard to secure is probably the real justification for Anna Bligh’s consideration of this policy.

How this all meshes in with Bligh’s overall goal of more rigorous teacher registration and qualifications is also a question still to be answered.

As well as insulting the professionalism of teachers, this also cynically cheapens the idealism of those who might be attracted to the programme in the cause of saving Bligh’s electoral skin. It’s particularly depressing because her earlier contribution to school education in Queensland, though susceptible to a range of legitimate criticisms, was the outstanding contribution she’d made as a Minister.

Queensland Labor: How low can Bligh go?

Published
by
Mark
1 month ago
in Politics, Polls and Queensland
. 20 Comments

The Poll Bludger has all the figures on a disastrous Galaxy poll for Queensland Labor. The 59-41 two party preferred in favour of the LNP isn’t so significant in the context of optional preferential voting, where many voters don’t preference past their first choice, but a 48-31-13 split in favour of the LNP, Labor and The Greens respectively should really have the ALP very worried indeed.

While the election is a long time away, Labor’s polling has been appalling since very shortly after Anna Bligh’s government was returned, with the vastly unpopular privatisations being accurately seen as a symbol of a fundamental loss of public trust in state Labor. To return to a position where they’re even competitive would probably require both a new leader and a reversal of the asset sales decision.

The Greens’ primary vote should be very encouraging for them – it’s very high in the Queensland context, and a lot of it would be concentrated in marginal Brisbane and coastal Labor seats. I would imagine that a lot of Labor’s primary has moved straight over to the LNP, and that The Greens’ increase in support is probably coming from the more ideologically committed segment of the ALP vote. With the primary vote all important in Queensland, the rational move for the ALP if it were to pursue a save the furniture strategy would be to go to the left to rebuild its primary and maximise preference flow. Don’t hold your breath, though. We’re more likely to see more hard hat bluster.

2010: Bye bye Bligh?

Published
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Mark
3 months ago
in Politics and Queensland
. 32 Comments

Back in August, I had this to say about Anna Bligh’s Labor regime in Queensland:

Anna Bligh’s credibility was one of the few things the ALP had going for it in the March state election. Her opposition to the dictates of ratings agencies was a hallmark message. The announcement after Labor squeaked back in that the fuel subsidy would go, that public sector wages would effectively be frozen and jobs disappeared through efficiency dividends, and, particularly, the plans for the sell off of state assets have seen the trust the electorate had in Bligh collapse.

I also wrote, commenting on her efforts to turn the situation around:

But the public aren’t inclined to credit her for decisive action — because the basis of trust that existed between citizens and their Premier has already dissipated.

At the time, I was met with some scepticism in comments. At the end of the year, I think it’s pretty clear that Bligh’s regime has the smell of death about it. Anyone who doubts that should have a look at Graham Young’s latest polling [links to posts on quant and qual respectively].

Bligh’s woes have been compounded by the departure of her chief of staff, Mike Kaiser. His replacement, Nicole Scurrah, is something of a policy wonk, and it’s difficult to see any semblance of a political strategy from the (shrinking) Bligh camp, beyond toughing it out and proclaiming the virtues of ‘tough decisions’. Hiring Bernie Fraser on 2 and a half grand a day to pacify the unions was a waste of money, and the partial backdown on the privatisations (now to be 50 and 99 year leases instead of full sales) has not stemmed the tide of public and union anger.

The last month or so has seen serious discussions within the party, caucus and unions about removing Bligh. It’s important to recall here that Bligh has alienated many on the left, both in caucus and in left unions, and also in the faction’s rank and file. There’s a host of intra-factional bad will, which is somewhat tangential to the broader consensus forming that removing Bligh is the only way to give Labor any chance at electoral survival, but which has its own effects.

Monday saw reports of moves to convene a special party conference to reverse the privatisation push. This is the tip of the iceberg when it comes to the machinations going on at the moment, some of which are described in an article by Andrew Crook in today’s Crikey [paywalled]. Continue reading ‘2010: Bye bye Bligh?’

Something rotten in the state of Queensland?

Published
by
Mark
7 months, 4 weeks ago
in Authoritarianism, Brisbane, Crime, Media, Politics, Queensland and Sociology
. 39 Comments

From today’s Crikey:

There has been a certain feeling in the air of deja vu over the past fortnight in Queensland. The jailing of a former Minister, allegations that government was far too close to business, a government sinking rapidly in the polls while making “tough decisions” and, the piece de resistance, the exposure of systemic misconduct in the elite Armed Robbery Squad of the Queensland Police.

The timing of this sequence of supposedly unlikely events was interesting. Much is being made of the 20th anniversary of the release of the Fitzgerald Report. The date falls this Thursday, and Tony Fitzgerald QC himself will be commemorating the occasion with a public lecture at Griffith University.

So is something again rotten in the state of Queensland?

Lurid stories of convicted criminals wining, dining and bonking on dodgy day release jaunts supposedly to gather intelligence for the coppers dominated local press coverage. This a week after revelations of the jailed Gordon Nuttall’s bizarre plans to make himself premier — shades of Russ Hinze perhaps.

The reality, though, is more prosaic.

Continue reading ‘Something rotten in the state of Queensland?’

What’s with Anna Bligh?

Published
by
Mark
9 months, 1 week ago
in Government, Policy, Queensland and State/Territory Elections
. 54 Comments

In the wake of the unnecessary firesale of state assets, the Bligh government has continued down its merry path of trashing Labor policy. Last week we had the refusal to take any action over the charges laid against a 19 year old Cairns woman for “procuring an abortion” by using RU486. Now, it seems, we’re going to see Bligh “muscle up” and take on the public sector unions by reneging on a promise made for pay increases of 4.5%, 4% and 4% over the next three years of enterprise bargaining agreements. The government has already been slashing casual and short term employment across departments and state agencies. Tomorrow’s budget is rumoured to contain cuts to public sector superannuation entitlements and we know that it will place a cap of 2.5% on pay increases.

The state election campaign was a shambolic affair, and it was almost lost. Despite an inept performance, Labor was re-elected primarily because the “jobs” theme and the promise to continue to invest in public infrastructure despite the economic crisis touched a chord with voters. Anna Bligh made much of standing up to credit rating agencies.

So why the turnaround? A couple of factors are at work. The first is Bligh’s inability to set her own direction, adopting rather the path of least resistance recommended by right wing apparatchiks in her office. Let one grumpy voter in a focus group whine about debt, and, well, forget the election promises. Secondly, there’s the misplaced obsession with “strength”, driven by the same advisers. This apparently means tossing Labor policy out the window and pursuing supposedly popular brawls with unions.

This mob have an inability to understand that Labor governments always need to pursue a direction contrary to that favoured by the big end of town to be a success. Talk of ‘reforms’ in the context of short-sighted privatisations is quite risible in this context.

Nor is Bligh apparently capable of learning from the past. Wayne Goss’ government was defeated not by the ‘Koala road’, but in large part because years of managerialist lunacy alienated the public sector vote. Similarly, the slashing of services in outer suburban and regional areas and decisions such as the one to close down the QR workshops in Ipswich in the midst of a recession and deep structural economic change had a lot more to do with the rise of One Nation than some innate Queensland redneckism.

Peter Beattie knew all this.

The irony – or rather, one of the many ironies – is that the government and top bureaucrats have recently been pontificating about the need for public sector spending to create demand in a sluggish economy. That seems – insofar as it means anything – only to apply to bricks and mortar and roads and bridges and to completely eschew people’s livelihoods. All ‘Bligh the Builder’ is paving the way for at the moment is her own defeat.

How Labor won in Queensland

Published
by
Mark
1 year ago
in Queensland and State/Territory Elections
. 81 Comments

Welcome to the Bligh heterogeneity! And living with heterogeneity is a much better prospect than assimilation into the hivemind of The Borg. I’m still thinking that whoever came up with the bright idea of applying that moniker to Lawrence perhaps wasn’t that big a Trekkie.

Over at Pineapple Party Time, I’ve told the untold story of how Labor turned the campaign around from certain defeat earlier into the week into a stunning personal victory for Anna Bligh. Far from a narrow escape, the Queensland ALP won 53 seats, a 17 seat majority. The ramifications of this victory will be enormous.

Queensland Labor machine runs off the track

Published
by
Mark
1 year ago
in Queensland and State/Territory Elections
. 15 Comments

I observed on Pineapple Party Time at the beginning of the week that the blame game inside the ALP about the failings of the Queensland campaign had started to leak out into the media. Evidently, some Labor types have been bending Andrew Crook’s ear as well, if his story in Crikey today is any indication. It’s a sad tale of strategic hubris mixed with a healthy dollop of organisational chaos. If the ALP can pull a win out of this campaign, it will be despite not because of the campaign.

Cross-posted at Pineapple Party Time.

Polling shows Labor on track for a loss in Queensland

Published
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Mark
1 year ago
in Queensland and State/Territory Elections
. 76 Comments

If the story William Bowe has linked to this morning at Pineapple Party Time about Labor tracking polls showing swings of up to 10% in seats with margins of up to 8% in and around Brisbane and a collapse in Greens preference flows to the ALP is accurate, Labor is probably toast on Saturday.

More later on today.

Update: I’ll be on the ABC’s The World Today program on radio at 11am this morning (Brisbane Time) talking to Annie Guest about the leaked polling discussed in this post.

Update: My story from today’s Crikey email is posted beneath the fold.

Continue reading ‘Polling shows Labor on track for a loss in Queensland’

Stormy waters on Campaign launch Sunday

Published
by
Mark
1 year ago
in Queensland and State/Territory Elections
. 4 Comments

As the Queensland election is buffeted off course by Cyclone Hamish and the oil spill, Lawrence Springborg has enjoyed more success in shaping the political message – Anna Bligh’s sos is being lost in the storm. There’s a conundrum here, as Bligh is not just more popular, but also arguably the better communicator, when not constrained by the dictates of the ALP apparat. I’ve taken a look at Pineapple Party Time at this phenomenon.

In other Queensland election reports at PPT, the latest Galaxy Poll is more bad news for Labor, the Leaders’ Debate was a bit of a fizzer, some think John Wanna may be a game-changer, and the two major party campaigns launch today.

Update: The Labor boat starts to leak.

Missing Peter Beattie

Published
by
Mark
1 year ago
in Polls, Queensland and State/Territory Elections
. 43 Comments

I’m increasingly convinced that if things carry on as they are at the moment, Labor is gone in Queensland as a majority government. Their biggest hope remains a shift in voter expectations away from an ALP win, and it seems from the latest Newspoll that Lawrence Springborg’s undecideds might point to a hesitation over the real possibility that he will become Premier. But Labor will have to lift its game, and hope that voters begin to tune in, and that minds aren’t already made up.

At Pineapple Party Time, I’ve had a look at the seats that are in play, arguing that the LNP can win without taking a swag of Brisbane electorates, and more recently, at another couple of bad campaign days for Labor. These aren’t “who won the day” style accounts, but rather critiques of a deeply flawed strategy. William Bowe reports on the Newspoll figures, and my latest post contrasts the ALP circa March 2009 with Peter Beattie’s reign.

Whatever you say about Beattie, I certainly won’t resile from the claim I made ages ago that he’s one of the best politicians we’ve seen in this country. Politically, Anna Bligh is much more congenial to me, but she’s not displaying the same range of leadership and campaign skills Beattie deployed effortlessly. Most of all, she’s failed to establish her authority over the party – an authority which was not guaranteed by the factional machinations which smoothed her path into the Premiership.

That’s a real pity in my book.

Not least because neither major party is doing much to address the genuine problems we have in this state.

A milestone in the Queensland election?

Published
by
Mark
1 year ago
in Federal Elections, Queensland and State/Territory Elections
. 17 Comments

There’s lots more reading about the Queensland election over at Pineapple Party Time, but I thought I might take this opportunity of pointing out that a plausible argument could be made that The Borg sunk his ship today. We’ll see, but if that turns out to be true, it has some very big implications for oppositions running against governments during an economic downturn. And particularly for oppositions running against a popular first term government, I’d suggest.

Update: Joe Hockey lends The Borg a campaign hand.

Another day, another election false alarm

Published
by
Mark
1 year, 1 month ago
in Queensland, State/Territory Elections and The Web
. 37 Comments

It seems that the ALP still can’t lift a political finger in Queensland without the press wizards at The Australian heralding it as a sign of an imminent election. On Friday, they were writing about a “trigger” for a poll, and yesterday the launch of Anna Bligh’s social media campaign website and the announced retirement of Labor MPs Gary Fenlon (Greenslopes) and Speaker Mike Reynolds (Townsville) suggested that we “could be heading for the polls as early as tomorrow”. Looks like they’re wrong. Perhaps if you write a story like this every day, there will be one day between now and August when it will actually prove accurate?

One has to wonder about the depth of understanding of political mechanics and political logic required to write this stuff. While the process of preselecting new candidates for what are important seats – even if they’re Labor held – won’t be “protracted”, it still has to be done. And those candidates need a bit of breathing space to build a profile before a campaign.

And there’s not much point to having a whizzbang brand new shiny campaign website if it doesn’t get some traction and some traffic.

In any case, it’s probably of more interest to assess how effective Anna4Qld actually is. Graham Young isn’t impressed.

It is true to say that the dynamics factoring into the election date have altered since last year. The LNP’s decline in the polls now has them trying to fend off an early campaign, while previously they were rearing to go. But Labor’s not ready for one – Labor support is quite soft, representing more of a “lesser of two evils” factor in light of the daily drumbeat of stories reinforcing dissatisfaction with health in particular. Labor is well aware of the possibility that voters who won’t plump for the Opposition will vote for a Green or another minor party or independent candidate with no second preference, or simply vote informal or stay away from the polls. There’s a fair way to go yet before either party can be really confident. Which is an indictment of them both, needless to say.

Elsewhere: Andrew Bartlett.

Borgism

Published
by
Mark
1 year, 1 month ago
in Queensland and State/Territory Elections
. 30 Comments

A taste of what’s to come in the Queensland election campaign has been airing on the telly over the last few nights. One of the advantages for Labor of the early election speculation is that almost anything they do that’s actually campaign-ish gets reported as news. So the Labor attack ad directed at Lawrence Springborg drowned out his economic policy speech yesterday. That may not be a bad thing, as the only initiative he came up with is, well, dumb, as Sam Clifford points out, so it actually serves to reinforce the negative message from the ALP. That’s (among other things) to suggest that Lawrence just can’t cut it. The timing of the attack and its substance appear to have achieved their objectives – not firing the starting gun for an early campaign, but shaping the coverage and perception of The Borg’s economic policy announcement.

Alternative universe

Published
by
Mark
1 year, 1 month ago
in Media, Polls, Queensland and State/Territory Elections
. 9 Comments

Aside from running “news” stories that “couriermail.com.au readers” are shocked by Anna Bligh’s use of the government jet to fly to Townsville, the redoubtable News Limited ranks are continuing their early election frenzy at every available opportunity. Witness this piece in The Australian about the budget position:

The rapidly deteriorating economic conditions in Queensland will put pressure on the Bligh Government to hold an early election.

An election is due before September, but the prospect of rapidly rising unemployment by the middle of the year plus a tough budget in June may convince the Government to go to the polls in the next few months.

Note that this is “news”, not “opinion”.

I assume it’s News Limited itself who is putting on the pressure.

As I observed the other day, Treasurer Andrew Fraser has explicitly said that the timing of the election wouldn’t be influenced by a desire to avoid a tough budget, and Anna Bligh has repeatedly poured cold water on the early election speculation since she returned from holidays.

It’s much more likely that the state government wants to be seen to be taking the proverbial “decisive action” on jobs and the economy rather than rushing to the polls. And they want some more time to heighten the attack on the LNP. Graham Young’s online polling also suggests that there would be some cost to going early.