Blogging politics, culture, sociology and life from Brisvegas
I haven’t had a chance to look at the amendments The Greens are putting forward to the emissions trading scheme bills. But Ben Eltham has, and his verdict has been published at New Matilda:
As the climate change debate rumbles on towards a possible denouement in Copenhagen, it’s comforting that at least one of Australia’s political parties is taking the issue seriously.
You can read the whole article here.
I’d like to play poker against Steve Fielding. If his actions over the alcopops tax are any guide, he’d bet all his chips with a lousy hand – after showing it to all the other players. The net result of his decision to block the legislation enabling the tax, after the other cross-benchers negotiated some quite sensible improvements to the deal? Cheaper Bacardi Breezers for teenagers to regurgitate, and a lost opportunity to replace $50 million of alcoholic sporting sponsorship with healthier alternatives. Not to mention a decent-size hole in the budget that will have to be filled elsewhere. It’s hard to imagine that this is the kind of outcome that his supporters wanted, inscrutable though they sometimes are. No wonder Bob Brown gave Fielding a carpeting in Parliament.
While Nick Xenophon is straight from the Brian Harradine school of independent Senators, at least the bloke seems to understand how to negotiate to achieve the best result he can get. Fielding, at the moment, is turning the passage of any particular legislation through the Senate into a coin-tossing exercise. The sooner the Senate numbers change to remove him from his current position of influence, the better off we will all be.
Possum has done an admirable job of spelling out the political implications of the stalling of the stimulus package in the Senate [see also Rob's earlier posts]:
The real irony here is it’s the bloke in the middle [Malcolm Turnbull] that’s probably the one completely sh*tting himself, because if this package fails to get through the Senate, the fallout against Turnbull by the public will be enormous. Every piece of bad news will become his fault in the mind of a huge chunk of the public – Labor will make sure of it. That better economic manager series we looked at earlier might become a nostalgic golden age for the Coalition.
It now appears that the legislation will be passed again by the House of Representatives – where no doubt all guns will be trained on the Opposition – and be returned to the Senate tomorrow while negotiations continue. It will probably pass after some more horsetrading, though that’s not certain. Labor will be dramatising the near miss, and putting all the blame on Turnbull rather than Xenophon and Fielding.
This is hardly a fabulous situation for the country, but the politics could hardly get any better for the government. A few points to make: Continue reading ‘The politics of the Senate vote on the stimulus package’
Simon Jackman has the good oil on what Bob Brown and Steve Fielding are putting on the table as Senate deliberations on Kevin Rudd’s fiscal stimulus continue. Both are emphasising the unemployed and job creation (with Brown arguing for green measures as well). I suspect that this manoeuvring might factor more into what comes out of the Budget sausage machine. The government has clearly been shifting its rhetoric on the unemployed, and I would expect the minors to be told that people on benefits will benefit as a result of the Henry Review. So it may be that some commitments might be made for future measures in exchange for current support. That would still, however, give the minor party Senators a real chance to shape the response to the economic downturn.
As noted here and here in comments, there’s an extremely interesting development in Queensland state politics today – Indooroopilly MP Ronan Lee has defected from the ALP to join The Greens.
Lee has been something of a maverick during his time in Parliament, causing both Peter Beattie and Anna Bligh a few headaches, and having switched factional allegiance from one right wing faction – the Old Guard (“Labor Unity”) to the other – the AWU (“Labor Forum”). He might have expected ministerial promotion, particularly if Anna Bligh had had the determination and the support to put the broom through Cabinet that is needed – rather than just talking about “renewal” – but has had to content himself with the position of Parliamentary Secretary to the Attorney-General. Lee has been a very active local member, as his website demonstrates, and a position of some independence with regard to his party (Lee’s election paraphernalia and office signage have radically downplayed his ALP affiliation) must have assisted him in retaining a very marginal seat in traditional Western Suburbs leafy Liberal heartland he first won in 2001. Lee has also been outspoken on environmental and transport issues, and recently took a swipe at Anna Bligh for not being serious about green issues.
Lee’s defection is not necessarily unexpected, and as Dennis Atkins notes at Party Games, may not be unrelated to the difficulty of holding Indooroopilly if the LNP vote does improve in Brisbane. Continue reading ‘Indooroopilly Labor MP Ronan Lee joins Greens’
With all the attention on the role of Brendon Grylls and the Nationals as the kingmakers in the WA election result, the improvement in the Greens’ vote has slipped under the radar somewhat. Counting subsequent to election night has seen their vote climb to almost 12% of the Legislative Assembly total according to the WAEC (which is interestingly slightly higher than the Greens’ vote in the Legislative Council).
But, if the Fin Review is to be believed, the significance of a 4% plus swing to the Greens hasn’t escaped the attention of ALP wonks. “Labor hardheads” are quoted by the paper as concerned by the vote in Fremantle, and the implications for the seats of Federal Ministers such as Lindsay Tanner, Anthony Albanese and Tanya Plibersek. “Labor strategists” are cited as concerned about a drift away among “left-leaning voters”.
This is hardly rocket science. Any modern managerialist ALP government is bound to disappoint at least some left voters after the initial euphoria of a Tory defeat has worn off. And the Greens nationally are going to have a much bigger profile with a balance of power role in the Senate and new Senators who may develop a high profile. The article, however, leaves us none the wiser as to how “Labor strategists” think their party should respond.
Continue reading ‘Greens back in the spotlight after the WA election?’
As well as OpenAustralia being tweaked to focus on the Senate, the folks at GreensBlog have also welcomed in the first sitting of the new Senate tomorrow with a new address and look for the blog and a new website which should facilitate greater transparency and interactivity with the Greens Senators.
John Quiggin’s blog is on a temporary hiatus, which is a pity as I’d hoped he’d reproduce his article in the Financial Review today to enable it to reach a wider audience. Gary Sauer-Thompson summarises the gist of the article and offers some analysis of his own. Quiggin suggests that “the state of the Murray-Darling system is an indication of the price of ignoring climate change”. Quiggin argues that it’s been known since the 1980s that there was an urgent need to restore flows to the river system, and that the recent proposals have both been inadequate and indeed unable to be implemented because there simply isn’t enough water. The impact of the drought is such that releasing any flows from upstream – say from Cubbie Station in Queensland – would largely be a futile exercise as it’s estimated that 80% would be lost by evaporation or absorption into the water table. What we’re left with – in the absence of any real ameliating action and non-existent or very low flows into the lower part of the Murray from 2002 onwards – is the current choice between one ecological disaster and another worse one with regard to Lake Albert and Lake Alexandrina near the mouth of the Murray River.
All this implies that the cabinet decision today to spend an additional $50 million on purchasing water rights in the northern basin is futile. It really just compensates those irrigators whose allocations were the problem in the past for the rents foregone. It also suggest The Greens are also wrong in suggesting that there is a lifeline from releasing flows which would prove to be insufficient.
Quiggin concludes:
The desparate choices now facing us with respect to the Murray-Darling basin are a small indication of what we will face if the world fails to act quickly to control emissions of carbon dioxide and slow the rate of global warming. Sooner or later the necessity for action will become undeniable, but by then the relatively easy options available now will have been forclosed.
Instead of market-friendly options like emissions trading, we will be looking at command-and-control measures like the water restrictions now prevailing in most Australian cities. As far as the environment goes, the kind of triage operations now being applied to the icon sites of the Murray will be routine. Some vital ecosystems will be saved, at the cost of abandoning others.
Continue reading ‘Market based solutions and global warming: how viable for how long?’
Given the Opposition is playing silly buggers on the emissions trading scheme, it’s important to consider the politics of the new Senate on the matter. Recall that if the Opposition votes against a bill, the government needs the votes of the Greens, Nick Xenophon, and Steve Fundies First Fielding to get something through.
So let’s look at what the Greens want:
“That requires a rigorous and comprehensive scheme which not only lowers Australia’s 1990 pollution levels by 40 per cent by 2020 but which also turns down the growing rate of emissions by 2015 – seven years away,” he said.
Penny Wong gave a speech at the CEDA conference the other day. In general terms she took the line that Ross Garnaut has been taking. Facing up to climate change will not be easy or cheap, but not facing up to it will be very expensive and possibly (probably?) catastrophic.
As a small example of the risk facing Australia from climate change, around 711,000 coastal addresses were at risk from future sea-level rise, Senator Wong said.
She said best estimates showed that $25 billion in assets may be at risk from sea level rise and storm surge.
Here’s another opportunity to be very mise-en-abyme and question the Q&A questioners questioning the Q&A panel while the questioning takes place! How web 3.0!
In other words, will Tony Abbott carry on like a pork chop? Will Louise Adler talk about the Bill Henson controversy? Will Warren Mundine denounce a “new ATSIC”? What sense does it make to have a panel with Bob Brown, Tony Abbott, Tanya Plibersek, Louise Adler anyway? Are they going to talk about the politics of the week, or take questions on anything? Will the questions be sharper and more policy and life-focused than the ones professional interviewers often put? Have at it!
Feral Sparrowhawk offers some thoughts on the future of the Liberals, something rather topical at the moment in the wake of Brendan’s big night out in Parliament.
Everyone knows the Liberals are in trouble, with the possible exception of Alexander Downer. However, looking at the discussion, both on blogs and in the MSM, this seems to be perceived to mean: They can’t win in 2010, probably not in 2013. However, the assumption seems to be that at some point the Liberals will be back (possibly merged with the Nationals). Much advice has been given based on the notion that ambitious Liberal leaders should be positioning themselves to lead in 2013 or 2016, rather than now.
I disagree. I believe that 2010 is likely to be the best chance the Liberals will ever have to get back into government. If they can’t win then, or at least give it a decent shake, there will probably never be another Liberal-led federal government in Australia.
A big call I know, but my thesis is that the Liberals are caught between two crises, both of which will likely see them whither in the long term. Every election will become harder to win, and after a while it will become difficult for them to even sustain the position of official opposition.
Continue reading ‘Guest post by Feral Sparrowhawk: They’re (probably) not coming back’
Next Sunday November 11 is the second Walk Against Warming, deliberately planned for two weeks before the election. There will be at least 50 walks across Australia.
Sydney’s Walk Against Warming will kick off in The Domain at 1pm, with speakers Cate Faehrmann (executive director of the Nature Conservation Council), Bob Brown and Peter Garrett.
If you’re on facebook, you can invite your friends to Walk Against Warming on the events page.
Crossposted at LP in exile, as our comments here are still closed due to our outage issues.
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