Tag Archive for 'Budget 2008'

Clever country on hold

Yesterday Dee Cee put in a passionate plea for ideas that are truly new and go beyond the industrial age as we know it, especially in relation to the business of mitigating climate change.

I don’t know how he rates the idea that US scientists have come up with of coating glass panels with a vegetable dye to make solar panels. Cheap solar panels that are more reliable and capable of generating up to ten times more electricity.

They are heading for commercialisation, it seems, but if you have the same idea here forget it unless you have a pile of cash.

Continue reading ‘Clever country on hold’

Poll position

I’ve come to the firm conclusion that the “honeymoon is over” proclamation issued by the media en masse a few weeks ago with reference to the Rudd government and Kevin Rudd himself means nothing more than the media decided to report everything the government did with some spin about “symbolism over substance” and “lacking a narrative” - most recently exemplified in another complete waste of newsprint from Glenn Milne whose Sunday column this week lacks anything but rumour, gossip and speculation to support a series of fanciful contentions. Milne does include the most bizarre bit of all this verbiage - praise for the unlikely figure of Martin Ferguson as representing some sort of policy rigour, something we’ve had a bit to say about here at LP. In the wake of all this, we’ve got yet another poll today - on petrol and the Liberal leadership - which as Tim Dunlop points out at Blogocracy, is basically meaningless, but has enabled Emo Man Brendan Nelson to get some traction and air time to repeat his constant catchcry for a petrol excise cut.

Continue reading ‘Poll position’

World Environment Day 2008

Kevin Rudd was wearing a green tie, and Brendan Nelson was emoting about a business supposedly destroyed by a budget decision on solar panels. Peter Garrett wants voluntary energy efficiency stickers on tv sets. Christine Milne throws her hands up in despair at all this, and quite understandably so.

The nightly news focused on the stunts from both sides of the aisle, and the politics, and maybe that’s the problem. Not dwelt on in coverage of World Environment Day in Australia are the comments from emissions trading architect Professor Ross Garnaut:

An observation of daily debate and media discussion in Australia could lead one to the view that this issue is too hard for rational policy-making in Australia… The issues are too complex, the vested interests surrounding it too numerous and intense, the relevant timeframes too long. Climate change policy remains a diabolical problem.

Garnaut is deeply pessimistic about whether we will be able to mitigate the harmful effects of climate change. Continue reading ‘World Environment Day 2008′

The contradictions of Emo Man

It was recently suggested in comments here by Paulus that progressives should be welcoming Brendan Nelson’s leadership:

But on the other hand, he’s probably the most left-wing leader the Libs have had in living memory, and he’s not playing anything like the role Howard played on culture and symbolic issues. At least for his stance on Kyoto and the Stolen Generation, I’d have thought he’d have got a smidgen of respect from LP people for reversing the Libs’ move to the right. But apparently not.

The points about Kyoto and the Apology were adequately answered on that thread, but Nelson provides evidence every day that he’s very far from having walked away from John Howard’s cultural crusades. Whether or not he’s a captive of his party here, I wouldn’t venture to say, but it’s basically irrelevant because if that were true, what we’d be talking about would be weak leadership.

Over the last twenty-four hours, we’ve seen the Liberals delay the passage of legislation designed to give same sex couples legal equality. Why?

Liberal MP Stuart Robert warned that by replacing references to a “marital relationship” with a “couple relationship” in the super laws, it may “slowly chip away at the institution of marriage”.

Taken to its logical extreme, de factos should have no rights at all on this reasoning. But of course, it’s not straight de factos they’re talking about. And yet we’re assured the Liberal Party is not pandering to extremist religious groups or displaying homophobia?

Continue reading ‘The contradictions of Emo Man’

Where’s the qualitative Newspoll?

At gatewatching, Jason Wilson discusses the revived blogospherical debate about the absurd narratives based on misinterpretations of polling from those punditocrats whom Possum has been pleased to dub the Opionatas. Wilson writes:

If you’d rather rely on qualitative polling than the hunches of Dennis to get an insight into what people thought about the budget a little while back, check out Graham Young’s write-up of his What the People Want polling series in On Line Opinion this morning.

This raises another interesting question. Why don’t the papers commission qualitative polling? Continue reading ‘Where’s the qualitative Newspoll?’

Queensland budget 2008

Queensland Treasurer Andrew Fraser has handed down his first budget, with Premier Anna Bligh branding it as her “government’s first budget” - an obvious counter to perceptions that Peter Beattie had dropped the ball on services and infrastructure. Three interesting themes to emerge from the new spending commitments are housing affordability, public transport and assistance for pensioners and people with disability. The spending is underpinned by a rise in coal royalties from 7% to 10%. The focus on social housing is particularly welcome, and reflects Anna Bligh’s desire to raise the state’s traditionally low levels of expenditure in social policy domains. So too is the goal of putting downward pressure on rental prices.

It’ll be interesting to see how (if at all) the Borg tries to counter the political impact of the budget. Continue reading ‘Queensland budget 2008′

Who “won” the petrol wars?

Peter Brent at Mumble is reporting that Newspoll shows Brendan Nelson’s preferred PM number moving up from 12 to a stellar 17 (where it’s been in Morgan incidentally). Rudd’s down 4 points to 66. The 2PP shows no change from last time - 57 to 43 in favour of the ALP.

Numbers here.

Update #1: The spin begins. Introducing the story on Lateline a few seconds ago, Tony Jones said something along the lines of “Rudd’s troubles have hit home”. Total nonsense. What’s happening is that Nelson has achieved what he sought to achieve - boosting his own PPM number. There’s obviously no evidence whatsoever that any of this changes anyone’s voting intention. It just makes Nelson’s position in the Coalition safer.

There’s a huge disconnect between the way the political class perceives the theatre of politics and what voters pay attention to. After a fortnight where almost every media commentator (I’m making a hypothetical exception here, in case anyone can point out any actual exceptions) has been jumping up and down and screaming that the opposition was “winning” the day or the week or whatever, there was no perceptible movement in the electorate on the only number that counts.

Update #2: Newspoll also asked some questions about petrol. The most interesting finding here is that a majority of voters don’t think that either party can do anything to lower fuel prices, or are uncommitted on the question. That, of course, is right. Continue reading ‘Who “won” the petrol wars?’

Coast to coast Labor governments

Glenn Milne must be delighted that Martin Ferguson isn’t a happy camper, as he’s finally able to write a column based on rumblings within Labor rather than play his traditional role as a conduit for Liberal leadership dissent (or smear people as “artists” and therefore “pervs”)… Today’s instalment contains lengthy discussion based on information from “those involved in the FuelWatch saga” including what Ferguson purportedly told “colleagues” - all in order to communicate “the message… from Ferguson”. Curious yet?

Those involved in the FuelWatch saga say that apart from the obvious economic nonsense of the scheme, Ferguson’s overarching concern was that to cede [sic] to such nonsense so early in the term of the Rudd Government would be to see federal Labor inevitably set on the same course as the Carr, Beattie and Bracks administrations.

Whoever’s been bending Milne’s ear also praises Paul Keating to the skies, and this bit is highly reminiscent of former Keating chief of staff Don Russell’s op/ed on Friday:

The message, I’m told, from Ferguson was that there are governments dedicated to “actions” and there are governments dedicated to “outcomes”. And in Ferguson’s judgment federal Labor’s state antecedents were in the former category; lots of largely meaningless activity that captured the 24-hour media cycle, but which ultimately amounted to not much in policy terms.

One might readily conjecture that Paul Keating has been having a word in Ferguson’s shell-like, but however true that is, it does appear plain that there’s something of a campaign being run here - for which Milne (as usual) is only the mouthpiece. So, is there any substance in the calls for substance?

Continue reading ‘Coast to coast Labor governments’

Kevin 24/7: Born to run

There’s an interesting paradox about Kevin Rudd’s personality which has come to light in recent days, in the wake of the furore over a series of leaks early last week. It’s this - that like a number of other PMs in the past, Kevin Rudd has a temper and can be a bastard to work for. What’s surprising about that? It certainly would be no surprise to a lot of people who worked in the Queensland public sector in the Goss era. Is it surprising more generally? Perhaps not - political leadership attracts certain personality types. But, writing in the Fin yesterday, Laura Tingle made the excellent point that with Bob Hawke and Paul Keating, that aspect of their personality was on show. Hawke in particular wasn’t shy of revealing his emotions in public, but although Paul Keating certainly wanted to keep his private self private, anger, joy, frustration and withering contempt were on display for all to see from both men. It was part of the package, and people made judgements knowing that.

There might be an element of truth to the criticisms made during last year’s never ending election campaign - Kevin Rudd wasn’t “well known” to the Australian public. That doesn’t just go to how long he’d been in Parliament - something John Howard apparently believed would work against him - but the way in which he’d created a (winning) public persona for himself - through light and breezy appearances on breakfast tv. There’s no doubt Rudd works hard to project a sometimes self-deprecating and generally likeable persona, but to some degree that is a persona that is an artefact of the theatre of political communication. As I noted when reviewing Nicholas Stuart’s biography of the then opposition leader last year, Rudd is someone who will move heaven and earth to do anything it takes to get him where he wants to go - and that includes adopting a more jovial persona with more of a common touch - he’d never make the mistake he made in 1996 of doorknocking ALP branch members on State of Origin night twice.

Now, in terms of the criticism of the pace he imposes on those who work for him, I think there’s a lot of validity in them. It may well be that senior public servants shouldn’t shy away from 7am meetings, but it’s not just senior public servants we’re talking about here - it’s those way down the ranks who are in effect being asked to act as departmental desk officers and be at work at 6am to answer inquiries from Rudd’s office - where the first stirrings of activity begin at 4am. Nobody functions optimally under constant stress, and the health implications of overwork are real.

Continue reading ‘Kevin 24/7: Born to run’

The honeymoon is over (etc.)

The Shanahan has spoken. He might claim that Rudd lacks a narrative, but he’s sure got one.

We pointed out here at LP around budget time that the punditariat love trying to make their dreams come true, and it could have been added that sections of the media would do their best to make the “honeymoon will end with the budget” narrative a self-fulfilling prophecy (and as with so many media motifs, the opposition have been saying the same thing for just as long).

There are a few things going on here:

Continue reading ‘The honeymoon is over (etc.)’

Brendan emotes

[Via Crikey]

Marn Ferguson’s petrol pump politics

John Quiggin thinks that Labor’s descent into the petrol pricing abyss - with all sorts of speculation about GST changes - is the Labor party’s first big public policy disaster of the term. Perhaps unsurprisingly, it’s also led to the first big damaging leak of the term - Martin Ferguson’s letter opposing Labor’s Fuelwatch scheme.

Trevor Cook speculates on the motivations of both Ferguson and the leaker. The other point I’d add to his analysis is that it wouldn’t be drawing too long a bow to suggest that Ferguson is the one spectacular example in the Ministry of “interest group capture” - a Minister who sees his role as being to represent industry to Cabinet rather than to make public policy in the public interest. If anyone had been running a book around election time on frontbenchers most likely to kick own goals for the Rudd government, I suspect Ferguson would be right up there with Peter Garrett - though for somewhat different reasons.

Cross-posted at PollieGraph.

Do economists buy food?

A lot of the debate about inflation targeting has been obscured by the Libs’ petrol bowser politics (and as well as it being dumb potential policy, I think it’s been dumb politics for Labor to start playing this game - however tentatively - as Mr Denmore said in comments, there’s a very simple political answer to the bowser tax wars the ALP should be employing). But I still think there’s a valuable point to make about the dissonance between elite discourses about the economy and perceptions about lived experience of the economy. The ALP, in government if not in opposition, has to keep both the policy wonks and the punters happy. And they were trying to with their claims about the budget being anti-inflationary in its fiscal impact and that much of inflation’s causes were from factors quite extraneous to influence by government policy. Even if they shot themselves in the foot by joining Brendan Nelson at the petrol pump. And I think it’s a direct result of an own goal from Kevin Rudd, when he said that he’d done “everything… possible” to address the price of petrol, and this was instantly characterised as being “complacency”, being “out of touch” and so on in the hyper-media cycle we all now deal with, including very clever Prime Ministers.

But what I wanted to raise was a thought inspired by this guest post at John Quiggin’s blog, where his guest poster Bruce Bradbury examines the much higher rate of inflation in staples rather than consumer durables:

This gap perhaps explains some of the divergence between the expressed concerns of consumers and the complacency of economists. Though consumers know that their next TV will be much better than their last one for much the same price, they are still struggling to meet their weekly supermarket and petrol station bills.

Continue reading ‘Do economists buy food?’

Populism and perish!

Some more comment on the Christian Kerr column I commented on recently comes from Tim Dunlop at Blogocracy, posing the dilemma for the opposition as “populism or perish?”. I actually think that choosing populism will lead to their demise, and possibly for a lot longer than this term.

In Laura Tingle’s column in today’s Fin, she quotes Rod Cameron, who for mine is one of the most insightful people around when it comes to talking about politics. Cameron argues that by flicking the switch to populism and disdaining to justify it with any coherent economic narrative whatsoever, the Liberals are trashing their own brand and committing political suicide. A lot of what they stand for ideologically has never been to the public’s liking (just as Labor ideology doesn’t go down all that well with a lot of voters) but if there’s one thing they have had in their corner, it’s the “economic conservative” image - the reason why Kevin Rudd was so keen to steal their clothes last year.

Too much political commentary assumes that both parties have identical options in political strategy. Continue reading ‘Populism and perish!’

Turnbull joins in petrol price populism

Malcolm Turnbull may think that cutting petrol excise is bad policy. But he doesn’t mind indulging in yet more petrol-price populism:

Mr Turnbull also signalled the Coalition could move to exclude petrol from the emissions trading scheme, due to start in 2010, which puts a price on carbon emissions.

Instead of placing a carbon tax on petrol the Coalition would support stronger vehicle emissions standards.

“I am very sympathetically inclined to following the precedent in other countries … with liquid fuels used in transportation, we can get a better result by encouraging and driving greater fuel efficiencies,” Mr Turnbull said.

Continue reading ‘Turnbull joins in petrol price populism’