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	<title>Larvatus Prodeo &#187; cash rate</title>
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		<title>Essential Research Labor 58-42; Interest rates cut by 100 basis points</title>
		<link>http://larvatusprodeo.net/2008/10/07/essential-research-labor-58-42-interest-rates-cut-by-100-basis-points/</link>
		<comments>http://larvatusprodeo.net/2008/10/07/essential-research-labor-58-42-interest-rates-cut-by-100-basis-points/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Tue, 07 Oct 2008 13:33:26 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Kim</dc:creator>
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		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://larvatusprodeo.net/2008/10/07/essential-research-labor-58-42-interest-rates-cut-by-100-basis-points/</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[As a bit of an update to my post last night, the Essential Research poll is now out, basically showing no change from last time. Possum has more on all the other questions asked. So, we can now be more [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>As a bit of an update to <a href="http://larvatusprodeo.net/2008/10/07/no-early-newspoll-interest-rates-to-be-cut/">my post last night</a>, the <a href="http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollytics/files/2008/10/essential-report_071008.pdf">Essential Research poll is now out</a>, basically showing no change from last time. <a href="http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollytics/2008/10/07/essential-report-october-7/">Possum</a> has more on all the other questions asked. So, we can now be more confident about suggesting that Malcolm Turnbull&#8217;s leadership has yet to really shift any of the trends that were evident under Nelson &#8211; this also highlights the vast over-inflation of the importance of Preferred PM and Opposition Leader approval ratings in most of the punditariat&#8217;s commentary. It will be very interesting to see what the delayed Newspoll says &#8211; since this is apparently the only poll the punditariat focus on. Where to now for the famous &#8220;media narrative&#8221;?</p>
<p><a href="http://petermartin.blogspot.com/2008/10/sharpest-about-face-in-rba-history.html">Peter Martin</a> has all the wonky stuff worth reading on the Reserve Bank&#8217;s 1% rates cut, which a number of banks and lending institutions have indicated will lead to a .8% cut in their variable mortgage rates. Dennis Atkins, writing at <a href="http://blogs.news.com.au/couriermail/partygames/index.php/couriermail/comments/rudd_given_a_breather_by_the_reserve_bank#42345"><i>Party Games</i></a>, thinks that the Reserve has given the Rudd government political breathing space.</p>
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		<title>No early Newspoll; interest rates to be cut</title>
		<link>http://larvatusprodeo.net/2008/10/07/no-early-newspoll-interest-rates-to-be-cut/</link>
		<comments>http://larvatusprodeo.net/2008/10/07/no-early-newspoll-interest-rates-to-be-cut/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Mon, 06 Oct 2008 14:34:20 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Kim</dc:creator>
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		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://larvatusprodeo.net/2008/10/07/no-early-newspoll-interest-rates-to-be-cut/</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[I wonder if no Newspoll is bad news for the pollsters and those who own them. This must be the first Monday in living memory (well, since anyone started paying attention to this stuff before last year&#8217;s campaign) when there [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>I wonder if no Newspoll is bad news for the pollsters and those who own them. This must be the first Monday in living memory (well, since anyone started paying attention to this stuff before last year&#8217;s campaign) when there hasn&#8217;t been an early release of selected Newspoll numbers. It couldn&#8217;t possibly be because the numbers don&#8217;t show any leadership bounce for Malcolm Turnbull, could it?  [<b>Update</b>: <a href="http://larvatusprodeo.net/2008/10/07/no-early-newspoll-interest-rates-to-be-cut/#comment-526047">Or could it be because NSW had a public holiday yesterday</a>?] After all, last week&#8217;s <a href="http://www.roymorgan.com/news/polls/2008/4324/">Morgan face to face poll</a> showed a straight swap of primary vote from the Coalition to Labor &#8211; 1.5%, with Labor on 57.5% 2PP. And ACNielsen and Newspoll <a href="http://larvatusprodeo.net/2008/09/22/turnbull-poll-bounce-acnielsen-52-48/">a fortnight ago</a> showed a very poor bounce by historical standards for the Opposition.</p>
<p>No doubt we&#8217;ll find out.</p>
<p>Malcolm Turnbull has been playing a dangerous game on interest rates. <span id="more-7331"></span>For a start, finding a single point of differentiation with Labor on the financial turbulence in calling for the banks to deliver the full .5% cut expected from the Reserve tomorrow trashes his &#8220;bipartisan&#8221; message articulated so recently. With banks falling over all round the world, the government&#8217;s argument that conditions have changed is going to find a fair bit of receptivity around the shop. Turnbull realised two weeks ago that bipartisanship was a good message in the midst of perceived chaos, at a time when people don&#8217;t really want to hear disagreement from political leaders. That&#8217;s gone now. Now, a lot of people might not remember his incoherent critique of the federal budget back in May when he was Shadow Treasurer (and the government&#8217;s budget strategy is looking a lot more clever five months down the track than reaction suggested at the time), but with both economic news in the foreground and his leadership itself big news, a lot more voters will be switched in to what he has to say than usual.</p>
<p>He may have figured that he had to go populist to avoid the &#8220;merchant banker&#8221; thing. That may be short-sighted.</p>
<p>If incidentally, there is no Turnbull bounce, it&#8217;ll be interesting to see if the usual suspects attribute that to voters flocking to the government at a time of economic uncertainty. There&#8217;d be truth in that, but if the assumption is that politics is not dynamic and there&#8217;s an underlying trend to the Liberals being masked by the crisis, that would be quite wrong.</p>
<p><b>Update</b>: New <a href="http://larvatusprodeo.net/2008/10/07/essential-research-labor-58-42-interest-rates-cut-by-100-basis-points/">post</a> on recent developments.</p>
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		<title>Nelson&#039;s interest rate gambit</title>
		<link>http://larvatusprodeo.net/2008/09/02/nelsons-interest-rate-gambit/</link>
		<comments>http://larvatusprodeo.net/2008/09/02/nelsons-interest-rate-gambit/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Tue, 02 Sep 2008 00:38:36 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Mark Bahnisch</dc:creator>
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		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://larvatusprodeo.net/2008/09/02/nelsons-interest-rate-gambit/</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[As Dennis Atkins observes, Brendan Nelson yesterday took what appeared to be a calculated gamble in breaking the convention that senior pollies don&#8217;t comment on the Reserve Bank&#8217;s interest rate decisions. Nelson called for a cut of 50 points in [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>As <a href="http://blogs.news.com.au/couriermail/partygames/index.php/couriermail/comments/nelsons_big_interest_rate_gamble#40079">Dennis Atkins</a> observes, Brendan Nelson yesterday took what appeared to be a calculated gamble in breaking the convention that senior pollies don&#8217;t comment on the Reserve Bank&#8217;s interest rate decisions. Nelson called for a cut of 50 points in the cash rate.</p>
<p>I suspect this was some sort of pre-emptive strike to try to forestall any credit claiming by Kevin Rudd and Wayne Swan if (as expected) the cash rate is cut by 25 points later today. The politics haven&#8217;t played out to script, with Nelson&#8217;s comments that he wouldn&#8217;t make such a call in government playing into Rudd&#8217;s hands.</p>
<p>But it was interesting to hear Nelson&#8217;s justification <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/lateline/content/2008/s2352352.htm">on Lateline last night</a>. Nelson argued that he was reflecting what &#8220;many Australians&#8221; thought. For those who&#8217;ve been paying any attention to what he&#8217;s had to say since he became leader, that&#8217;s typical. He appears to regard himself as some sort of transmission belt. Hence all the emo-ting. It&#8217;s an intriguing view of political leadership because it completely eviscerates the notion of leadership itself. Perhaps it&#8217;s one reason why his own leadership is in so much trouble.</p>
<p><span id="more-7097"></span>Speaking of which, Christian Kerr, who brings you <a href="http://larvatusprodeo.net/2008/08/22/christian-kerr-troll-blogging-at-the-australian/">&#8220;balance and fact&#8221;</a>, occupies his column inches this morning deconstructing Peter Costello&#8217;s interjections in Question Time. Perhaps this is his own small contribution to balancing out the <a href="http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,,24219976-7583,00.html">purported paucity of analysis on the part of bloggers</a>. It&#8217;s really important for our nation&#8217;s destiny, after all, to <a href="http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,24279368-5016936,00.html">parse Costello&#8217;s throw away lines</a> every which way:</p>
<blockquote><p>&#8220;Wow! What about the meaning of life?&#8221; Costello exclaimed.</p></blockquote>
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