Larvatus Prodeo

Discussion of the Northern Territory election results continues to be framed in terms of its possible implications for WA, where Alan Carpenter also went early. There are at least two problems with this narrative – first that there’s no evidence but only supposition that the NT result was directly related to an early election (and it’s worth pointing out that after all the insta commentary, it’s now being recognised that the result was the second best Territory Labor had ever attained in terms of primary votes). Secondly, I’ve always felt that argument by historical analogy is at best risky – as patterns that might form the basis for prediction are hard to discern just from political history in the absence of quantitative data. It becomes riskier when you start assuming that what appears (and it only does appear) to be the case in one jurisdiction can unproblematically be the basis for an inference to what might occur in another. The number of qualifiers I’ve felt obliged to use here might be a bit of a clue to the logical force of any such arguments.

Nevertheless, there’s no doubt that politicians think this way, and often seek to learn from campaigns and tactics that appear to have worked elsewhere in the past. There’s a whole mini-industry now, for instance, of importing Australian political consultants to work on and direct British campaigns. One thing I’m surprised no one (to my knowledge anyway) has mentioned is the fact that Alan Carpenter is obviously taking a leaf or two from Peter Beattie’s campaign book.

Continue reading ‘Is Alan Carpenter the new Peter Beattie?’