Tag Archive for 'election speculation'

The Australian has better pundits than the blogosphere?

Published
by
Mark
1 year ago
in Blogging, Media and State/Territory Elections
. 99 Comments

Well, knock me down with a feather! Taking a leaf out of Tim Blair’s book of selective quotation, The Australian has claimed I was the “last to call” the Queensland election. I must say things must have come to a pretty pass when they’re actually moved enough to name a blog they disagree with, rather than use the usual formulations of “ignorant bloggers”, etc, which conveniently don’t allow anyone to google up the blog in question and make up their own minds.

For the record, there’s a basic difference between my approach to punditry and that of the press wizards at the Oz. They wrote stories almost daily for months claiming the election could be called the next day, or the next week, or was “imminent” or whatever. I waited until I actually had firm information – from Labor sources. Not reading the tea leaves or joining the dots with the latest news story and claiming there was now a “trigger” or the government was “under pressure” (from whom, I wondered?)… I’ll stand by the claim that the final decision to go ahead with an early election hadn’t been made until late last week. Any enterprising journos who doubt that might like to, well, investigate – perhaps by contacting people involved in that decision rather than speculating in retrospect. If there were indeed cunning plans afoot which journos can now reveal, whatever stopped them writing about the said cunning plans when they were actually being made and implemented?

To adopt a phrase that’s been around the traps lately with regard to the distinction between bloggers and journos, I picked up the phone. I’m not so sure the pundits did. End of story. Let’s get on with talking about the campaign!

I’d also point out that the method of selective quotation does produce a real (and intended) distortion in the story about what was being said here. That’s no great surprise, but anyone interested in boring old fashioned stuff like the truth can make their own minds up by reading the posts in question in their entirety. They can be accessed via this tag.

Queensland election – it’s all happening

Published
by
Mark
1 year ago
in Media, Queensland and State/Territory Elections
. 25 Comments

Lots of stuff going on at the moment – there’s a great roundup at The Poll Bludger of this week’s retirements and preselections. And Antony Green’s election guide is up.

Note that this doesn’t necessarily imply that an election is imminent. It does show that all the ducks are being lined up. That’s not quite the same thing. The conditions for an election announcement are being created – for the first time since all the speculation began, but the finger might be on the trigger for a while longer.

But I’ll have more to say about the timing of the election over the next couple of days – got a bit more “picking up the phone” to do. I will join the predictions crowd on the basis of what I’ve been hearing from Labor folks so far, though. I’d say the odds are good that the election will be announced next week or the week after. But a final decision hasn’t been taken, as I understand it. If we get through the next fortnight or so without an announcement, it’s likely that the window of opportunity will be closed and we’ll be looking at an election date much closer to full term – probably in August.

Update [by Kim]: Link rich state of play in the Queensland politics stakes at Woolly Days.

Borg bombs in Brisbane

Published
by
Mark
1 year, 1 month ago
in Media, Queensland and State/Territory Elections
. 19 Comments

The Poll Bludger links to a report in The Australian about LNP polling that shows they’re in a huge mess in Brisbane. I’m not surprised by the report – I was hearing similar numbers back in January about their internal polling. One thing is for certain about the forthcoming campaign – the Labor Party will be running against the National Party in every Brisbane seat. In a way, this makes Labor’s task somewhat easier than it was when the Liberals were a distinct party with a softer and more urbane image (which may or may not have been warranted, but they had one!)… I’d also observe on the eternal election speculation front that the premise of the story is wrong – the state budget is not delivered in May. Oh, and while Labor is yet to preselect a candidate for Green MP Ronan Lee’s seat of Indooroopilly (which I think is probably looking more winnable for the ALP), it’s a pretty long bow to suggest that an early election is in the offing.

Bored with election speculation? There’s always leadership speculation!

Published
by
Mark
1 year, 1 month ago
in State/Territory Elections
. 18 Comments

In light of the interminable Queensland election speculation – seemingly immune to confrontation with any actual facts – there’s some interest in a leak Crikey’s Bernard Keane had from the LNP:

In the wake of yesterday’s item on problems within Liberal National ranks, an anonymous source claimed that the LNP Shadow Cabinet meeting on 19 January had been given over to debate about Lawrence Springborg’s “small target” strategy, and that there were elements of the party who thought Jeff Seeney might make a better go of challenging Anna Bligh. Just in case, the source assured us, Labor had prepared an alternative strategy in the event Seeney gets up. Springborg, whose electoral record as leader stands at 0 out of 2, rolled Seeney for the leadership of the Nationals just over a year ago.

Mischief-making, perhaps. Swapping leaders at this stage would be an impressively suicidal move for the LNP, but stranger things have happened. Just ask Colin Barnett.

It probably is mischief-making, but it does highlight the fact that the LNP – whose sole raison d’etre is supposed to be unity (as The Borg’s nickname unintentionally suggests…) – is not exactly the happy family they’d like to make out. There’s no doubt that Jeff Seeney still isn’t a happy camper, and his ominous remarks about the influence of fundies in his overthrow gave away a few clues to his future intentions.

It really is all or nothing for Lawrence, though. Seeney arguably had a greater capacity to mount an argument against Bligh, but he was far too “country” and aggressive. Aside from him, the cupboard’s bare. There’s no way the Nats would accept a leader from the Libs – even from the Santoro faction – and it’s not as if they’re particularly attractive prospects. Who’s left if the Borg loses? It’s interesting to ponder…

We’ve always been at war with Eastasia

Published
by
Mark
1 year, 1 month ago
in Brisbane, Media, Queensland, State/Territory Elections and Urbanism
. 10 Comments

A further sequel to the LNP/Courier-Mail early election mania – Springborg backer Clive Palmer’s 18 year old son, Michael, who’s the LNP candidate for the safe Labor seat of Nudgee, has had a bit more publicity for saying dumb stuff than 18 year old candidates in safe seats usually get. Palmer was slapped down by Tim Nicholls for demanding that Anna Bligh call an election for February 21. Apparently, after the frenzied LNP/Courier-Mail election speculation fest, they’ve now always been committed to seeing that Labor serves a full term.

That’s nice for them, because that’s always been the most probable outcome. Although I do worry about the sunstroke and skin cancer risks unnecessarily run by all those LNP rank & filers sweating it out campaigning on street corners over the Christmas holidays. Treasurer Andrew Fraser reinforced this on Friday in an interview with the Fin Review, discussing the preparations for the June budget and observing:

Anyone who trots out the line the election timing has anything to do with avoiding a June Budget is ill-informed, mostly stupid and probably politically motivated.

I don’t know if he was thinking of The Borg, who judging by the fact that Mark McArdle and Tim Nicholls have been doing all the running for the LNP in the media, is still on hols. Perhaps Lawrence never expected a February poll. Or it may be the ultimate small target strategy. But with Bligh taking a higher profile and announcing good things like a new park at the top of the Kangaroo Point cliffs on crown land overlooking the river and running around the shop spruiking jobs initiatives, they might like to contemplate actually coming up with a political strategy now that Labor’s kicking off its re-election plan.

Papering over the cracks in C-M credibility with populism

Published
by
Mark
1 year, 1 month ago
in Media, Polls, Queensland and State/Territory Elections
. 44 Comments

I’ve previously posted on the fact that the Courier-Mail has been beside itself with early election speculation for quite some time now. The logic advanced by several commentators that Anna Bligh would call an election because the last Newspoll showed a turnaround in Labor’s fortunes was always dubious, if not fatuous. The ALP would have much better data from regular tracking polls than from a quarterly public poll. Newspoll is not the centre of the political universe. And there’s every chance that Labor’s advantage will improve as the election approaches and the Borg’s shiny new political vehicle starts to lumber down its accustomed country roads, taking the occasional ill judged turn to the right.

Now, the folks at the C-M have noticed that the last date for “a traditional Saturday election” in mid February – the time at which they were claiming that the poll would occur – has passed. (Incidentally, Anna Bligh’s not likely to call an “unprecedented Tuesday election” which would be illegal anyway…) However, it seems beyond the call of duty for the C-M to admit that their ungrounded speculation was just wrong. In quite a bizarre twist, they’ve flicked the switch to populism and published a story which is accompanied by a shooting gallery of pollies “who will get to claim $63,500 for life”. The logic (if that’s the word) behind this is that supposedly the predicted early election hasn’t been held so that the said pollies can qualify for their super.

Never mind the fact that a large number of the pollies named aren’t retiring and quite a few hold safe seats.

Continue reading ‘Papering over the cracks in C-M credibility with populism’

Possum deconstructs The Borg

Published
by
Mark
1 year, 2 months ago
in Queensland and State/Territory Elections
. 26 Comments

Possum has a super post on Lawrence Springborg’s cunning plan – how to lose an election against a tired four term government. Go read.

New year, “fresh” Queensland election hype

Published
by
Mark
1 year, 2 months ago
in Politics, Queensland and State/Territory Elections
. 31 Comments

From today’s Crikey email:

Queensland’s the only state to hold an election this year, and excitement is obviously building. Well, that’s one way of looking at it — if you’re either a News Limited journo looking for a lazy piece to write about “early poll speculation” or if you’re a member of the LNP. The supposedly reinvigorated (“new”, “fresh” and all that) amalgamated opposition seem to be constantly poised at the blocks waiting for the starting gun to be fired. The latest symptom of this silly season syndrome is a very excitable story in the Courier-Mail today.

The paper’s breathless reporters write:

The prospect of an early state election has arisen again after Labor began letterbox dropping households in battleground seats at the weekend.

It doesn’t appear to have occurred to the LNP apparatchiks that just as their members have been spending Saturday mornings for a month or more sweating in the summer sun on stalls on shopping strips (only to be ignored by electors focused more on, well, shopping) that Labor might also be doing a bit of profile raising for its new candidates.

In fact, the ALP might be doing its bit of early campaigning in a somewhat more strategic fashion than their opponents. It’s hard to see the logic of the Lib Nats actively campaigning in Brisbane Central before Christmas — held by a margin of 14.4% on the 2006 figures. And it’s hard to see why Michael Palmer would be booking billboards along Sandgate Road in Nudgee — where Labor is defending a margin of 18.2%. But, then, Palmer can probably afford a bit of youthful enthusiasm, since his dad, Clive, has been largely funding Opposition Leader Lawrence Springborg’s makeover.

While Anna Bligh will no doubt want to retain some flexibility over the timing of the election, just because the LNP and News Limited say there’ll be an election next month won’t make it so. Continue reading ‘New year, “fresh” Queensland election hype’