Parliament is only sitting for two weeks, and then won’t return until September. The delivery of valedictory speeches in the budget sitting shows that this term is reaching its parliamentary conclusion.

Let’s leave aside all the faffing about of the confected ‘Rudd’s leadership on the line’ narrative.

One little noticed facet of the recent onslaught on the government has been the virtual disappearance of Tony Abbott.

In one respect, that’s sensible politics – keep the focus on Rudd. But that may backfire, as I said earlier. It also suggests that the Coalition are well aware that Abbott’s terrible personal ratings, while not the subject of febrile media commentary, make him a liability when it comes to the campaign. Nor is their much evidence that the Antipodean ‘Party of No’ has spent much time on policy development.

So, there might be some advantage to going early. It would put a stop to the endless repetition of Rudd and doom noise, and particularly if there are attractive policy options in development, there may be advantages in catching the Coalition unprepared. And the polls may indicate volatility rather than doom for Labor.

Those are the arguments for. What are the arguments against?

Elsewhere: Richard Farmer:

There’s only one good reason why Kevin Rudd will not scurry off to the polls early in August and that’s if he thinks he certainly can’t win. Even if the prime ministerial judgement is that the prospects are a little dicey he will be encouraged to take the plunge. For delay that allowed Parliament to reconvene after the winter break would be confirmation that Rudd thinks defeat is likely and faced with that prospect his Labor caucus colleagues would start seriously thinking about the Julia Gillard option. If being thrown out even before an election is too horrible to contemplate, then it is time to get a hurry on.

So far the idea of a leadership challenge is no more than that — a vague thought in the back of the minds of those in the most vulnerable seats as they mull over all the “what ifs” about the forthcoming election. Opinion polls — the unreliable and meaningless guide that they are at this stage of the electoral game — do influence backbenchers and especially so when they are pointing in the same direction as their own interpretation of what the public in their own electorate thinks. When a young hard head such as former federal ALP secretary Gary Gray starts getting anxious, we can deduce that the message he is getting from the people of Brand is certainly troubling.

Not that even a new leader would fix the big problem that Gray has identified. Labor will go to the election advocating a super profits tax on mining whether it is a Rudd, Gillard or some-one-else led government. The best that ALP members from Western Australia and Queensland can hope for is a change or two at the fringes that will take enough heat out of this particular debate to get people thinking about other things as well.

The best way of broadening the issues of the political debate would be to call an election quickly and if Rudd was listening to my advice, he would be driving out to Government House this coming Sunday afternoon and thus neutering any talk of a caucus revolt before the next Newspoll produces a predictable next round of leadership speculation.

Update: According to Barrie Cassidy, the Coalition have been coming up with some policy ideas. Whether they’re policy ideas or thought bubbles and stunts, though, is another question.

Update: Possum has published a leaked minute which suggests options are being kept open for an August 28 election.

For the record, there’s a basic difference between my approach to punditry and that of the press wizards at the Oz. They wrote stories almost daily for months claiming the election could be called the next day, or the next week, or was “imminent” or whatever. I waited until I actually had firm information – from Labor sources. Not reading the tea leaves or joining the dots with the latest news story and claiming there was now a “trigger” or the government was “under pressure” (from whom, I wondered?)… I’ll stand by the claim that the final decision to go ahead with an early election hadn’t been made until late last week. Any enterprising journos who doubt that might like to, well, investigate – perhaps by contacting people involved in that decision rather than speculating in retrospect. If there were indeed cunning plans afoot which journos can now reveal, whatever stopped them writing about the said cunning plans when they were actually being made and implemented?

To adopt a phrase that’s been around the traps lately with regard to the distinction between bloggers and journos, I picked up the phone. I’m not so sure the pundits did. End of story. Let’s get on with talking about the campaign!

I’d also point out that the method of selective quotation does produce a real (and intended) distortion in the story about what was being said here. That’s no great surprise, but anyone interested in boring old fashioned stuff like the truth can make their own minds up by reading the posts in question in their entirety. They can be accessed via this tag.

Note that this doesn’t necessarily imply that an election is imminent. It does show that all the ducks are being lined up. That’s not quite the same thing. The conditions for an election announcement are being created – for the first time since all the speculation began, but the finger might be on the trigger for a while longer.

But I’ll have more to say about the timing of the election over the next couple of days – got a bit more “picking up the phone” to do. I will join the predictions crowd on the basis of what I’ve been hearing from Labor folks so far, though. I’d say the odds are good that the election will be announced next week or the week after. But a final decision hasn’t been taken, as I understand it. If we get through the next fortnight or so without an announcement, it’s likely that the window of opportunity will be closed and we’ll be looking at an election date much closer to full term – probably in August.

Update [by Kim]: Link rich state of play in the Queensland politics stakes at Woolly Days.

In the wake of yesterday’s item on problems within Liberal National ranks, an anonymous source claimed that the LNP Shadow Cabinet meeting on 19 January had been given over to debate about Lawrence Springborg’s “small target” strategy, and that there were elements of the party who thought Jeff Seeney might make a better go of challenging Anna Bligh. Just in case, the source assured us, Labor had prepared an alternative strategy in the event Seeney gets up. Springborg, whose electoral record as leader stands at 0 out of 2, rolled Seeney for the leadership of the Nationals just over a year ago.

Mischief-making, perhaps. Swapping leaders at this stage would be an impressively suicidal move for the LNP, but stranger things have happened. Just ask Colin Barnett.

It probably is mischief-making, but it does highlight the fact that the LNP – whose sole raison d’etre is supposed to be unity (as The Borg’s nickname unintentionally suggests…) – is not exactly the happy family they’d like to make out. There’s no doubt that Jeff Seeney still isn’t a happy camper, and his ominous remarks about the influence of fundies in his overthrow gave away a few clues to his future intentions.

It really is all or nothing for Lawrence, though. Seeney arguably had a greater capacity to mount an argument against Bligh, but he was far too “country” and aggressive. Aside from him, the cupboard’s bare. There’s no way the Nats would accept a leader from the Libs – even from the Santoro faction – and it’s not as if they’re particularly attractive prospects. Who’s left if the Borg loses? It’s interesting to ponder…

That’s nice for them, because that’s always been the most probable outcome. Although I do worry about the sunstroke and skin cancer risks unnecessarily run by all those LNP rank & filers sweating it out campaigning on street corners over the Christmas holidays. Treasurer Andrew Fraser reinforced this on Friday in an interview with the Fin Review, discussing the preparations for the June budget and observing:

Anyone who trots out the line the election timing has anything to do with avoiding a June Budget is ill-informed, mostly stupid and probably politically motivated.

I don’t know if he was thinking of The Borg, who judging by the fact that Mark McArdle and Tim Nicholls have been doing all the running for the LNP in the media, is still on hols. Perhaps Lawrence never expected a February poll. Or it may be the ultimate small target strategy. But with Bligh taking a higher profile and announcing good things like a new park at the top of the Kangaroo Point cliffs on crown land overlooking the river and running around the shop spruiking jobs initiatives, they might like to contemplate actually coming up with a political strategy now that Labor’s kicking off its re-election plan.

Now, the folks at the C-M have noticed that the last date for “a traditional Saturday election” in mid February – the time at which they were claiming that the poll would occur – has passed. (Incidentally, Anna Bligh’s not likely to call an “unprecedented Tuesday election” which would be illegal anyway…) However, it seems beyond the call of duty for the C-M to admit that their ungrounded speculation was just wrong. In quite a bizarre twist, they’ve flicked the switch to populism and published a story which is accompanied by a shooting gallery of pollies “who will get to claim $63,500 for life”. The logic (if that’s the word) behind this is that supposedly the predicted early election hasn’t been held so that the said pollies can qualify for their super.

Never mind the fact that a large number of the pollies named aren’t retiring and quite a few hold safe seats.

Acting Premier Paul Lucas told the Courier-Mail the super qualification deadline was “irrelevant” and that’s almost certainly not spin. The frenzied imagination of Brisbane’s only major newspaper and its preference for flicking the switch to populism rather than admitting error doesn’t bode well for the standard of coverage of the campaign when it eventuates. But that will suit the ALP just fine, and more’s the pity for those who think the media might have some role in ensuring accountability from a government with a fat majority in parliament.

Queensland’s the only state to hold an election this year, and excitement is obviously building. Well, that’s one way of looking at it — if you’re either a News Limited journo looking for a lazy piece to write about “early poll speculation” or if you’re a member of the LNP. The supposedly reinvigorated (“new”, “fresh” and all that) amalgamated opposition seem to be constantly poised at the blocks waiting for the starting gun to be fired. The latest symptom of this silly season syndrome is a very excitable story in the Courier-Mail today.

The paper’s breathless reporters write:

The prospect of an early state election has arisen again after Labor began letterbox dropping households in battleground seats at the weekend.

It doesn’t appear to have occurred to the LNP apparatchiks that just as their members have been spending Saturday mornings for a month or more sweating in the summer sun on stalls on shopping strips (only to be ignored by electors focused more on, well, shopping) that Labor might also be doing a bit of profile raising for its new candidates.

In fact, the ALP might be doing its bit of early campaigning in a somewhat more strategic fashion than their opponents. It’s hard to see the logic of the Lib Nats actively campaigning in Brisbane Central before Christmas — held by a margin of 14.4% on the 2006 figures. And it’s hard to see why Michael Palmer would be booking billboards along Sandgate Road in Nudgee — where Labor is defending a margin of 18.2%. But, then, Palmer can probably afford a bit of youthful enthusiasm, since his dad, Clive, has been largely funding Opposition Leader Lawrence Springborg’s makeover.

While Anna Bligh will no doubt want to retain some flexibility over the timing of the election, just because the LNP and News Limited say there’ll be an election next month won’t make it so. Bligh’s only recently flicked the switch to negative on the opposition, and there’s a lot of scope left for tarnishing The Borg’s image and exploiting divisions between the Libs and the Nats, or rather between the LNP and Liberal voters. Not to mention a fair bit of unfinished business in “renewing” the ALP, which Bligh hinted at in an interview with the Fin Review yesterday.

LNP strategists might like to spend a little more time developing an actual political strategy and a bit less time assuming that one leaflet drop means we’ll soon be off to vote.