These sorts of surveys demonstrate one of the weaknesses of opinion polling – we’re left to speculate on the reasons. It really would be extremely helpful if polling groups were to supplement such research with qualitative forms of enquiry such as focus groups, or qualitative aspects to the survey instrument.

But since we have to speculate, my guess would be that one or more of the following factors might be in operation:

(a) “The economy” itself is something of an abstraction in most people’s minds, and unless they can feel the impact of economic stats directly or by anecdote then it remains an abstraction. This is exactly the dynamic that explained the failure of various “beautiful sets of numbers” to give John Howard and Peter Costello any traction last year, and for that matter, vitiated the arguments in favour of WorkChoices. So, if there’s something of a lag beween the financial aspects of the crisis and their impact on “the real economy”, then it may be that expectations also show something of a lag;

(b) Relatedly, people tend to extrapolate to the future from the recent past, and more powerfully from their own experience than from history or meta narratives. So we would expect attitudes to employment and the labour market to reflect the most recent patterns, particularly among younger and more skilled workers. It may also be a realistic (at this point) implicit understanding of the fact that “the economy” is a much more disaggregated creature than it once was, with different sectors both occupationally/industrially and geographically more weakly correlated with overall trends. In that sense, if people are aware of continuing tightness in the market for particular jobs in their field, there’s a reasonably rational belief that the underlying skills picture may continue, and/or that their sector may be somewhat insulated from broader nationwide and global developments.

(c) “Unemployment” itself has a different subjective meaning due to the casualisation of the labour market and the increase in contracting. It may be that a recession no longer poses the threat of a non-existent secure permanent job disappearing just like that for many people, but rather a shift in hours or longer gaps between contracts. “Unemployment” as a lived category means something different from both its statistical and legal meanings.