Tag Archive for 'john brumby'

So, how about that hospitals plan?

Tony Abbott’s performance in question time today, and the timing of his parental leave thought bubble more generally, suggest that his major imperative was to switch the topic of debate from health. That’s despite the Coalition running a very active scare campaign about hospital closures in the bush, but it’s probably because of the polling on Rudd’s initiative. I suspect also that it wouldn’t be going out too far on a limb to venture a modest prediction that that Labor might be headed for an uptick in the polls.

Some Coalition MPs have suggested that this plan came about so suddenly because Abbott had become privy to private party polling.

I strongly suspect that the Labor Party might have had a bit of a turnaround – perhaps related to the National Curriculum and health, and Abbott might be responding to that. It could also explain why he felt he had to release some ‘positive policy’. It could well be that his negativism has had an impact; I note that Labor Ministers have been reiterating the ‘Senate obstructionism’ line again this morning.

In short, on where the parties actually stand, one shouldn’t believe what one reads in The Australian.

Meanwhile, whether or not Abbott makes health a focus of his parliamentary attack, the Premiers continue to ponder the National Health and Hospitals Network. Kevin Rudd has wrought his own ambush, confident that there’s no political skin to be lost picking a fight with the states on this battleground. But that doesn’t mean that some of the Premiers haven’t been posing some good questions – interestingly, probably more from Kristina Kenneally than John Brumby.

And while the headline politics might have been the primary focus of media attention, some good work continues to be done on analysing the policy itself. I’ve posted some salient links over the fold. Continue reading ‘So, how about that hospitals plan?’

Blame the Minister?

Media reporting suggests that Victorian Public Transport Minister Lynne Kosky’s departure was indeed for “family reasons”. Whatever the details (and they of course aren’t our business), good luck to her and her family as she confronts what sounds like a very serious challenge.

Kosky’s time in the public transport portfolio has not been a happy one, and her departure will undoubtedly be handy for the government. Victoria’s public transport system, particularly the train system, has failed to cope with a big increase in passenger numbers. Nor could it cope with extreme weather; on the increasingly common 40 degree days down here in Melbourne, massive disruptions in the train system have become routine due to limitations with train air conditioning systems, buckling rails, and sagging wires. To top it off, the myki smartcard ticketing system is three years late, way over budget, and its tentative and partial introduction still isn’t working properly.

But how much is Kosky herself to blame for all of this?

Continue reading ‘Blame the Minister?’

Evan Thornley: “Nothing in his (political) life became him like the leaving it”?

[With apologies to Shakespeare's Macbeth.]

It may be that political news abhors a (Christmas/New Year) vacuum, but hasn’t Evan Thornley’s departure from politics at the point when the Victorian ALP caucus was about to elevate him to a Ministry set the cat among the pigeons? Writing in Crikey today, Andrew Crook thinks there’s more to all this than meets the eye – the story is reproduced with permission over the fold.

Continue reading ‘Evan Thornley: “Nothing in his (political) life became him like the leaving it”?’

The truth of polls and the epistemology of politics

The Poll Bludger has the numbers on the latest Nielsen poll for Victoria. Labor leads on the 2PP 55-45.

The Age trumpets this result as Victorian Labor “defying the national trend”. No doubt other papers are saying the same – I haven’t looked.

I’ve been arguing for a while that there is insufficient evidence to conclude that there is a national trend against Labor, and that in fact thinking about disparate polls in seven different jurisdictions with differing political histories, cultures and current circumstances as constituting a trend makes little sense. My contention for a long time has been that elections are unrepeatable and singular events and that epistemologically we can know much less about electoral behaviour and find grounds for prediction with much less certainty than we think. Political behaviour follows few laws and a lot of conclusions reached after the fact are questionable.

But there is a sort of reflexivity feedback loop built into the way we think about politics and the way polls are reported. Particularly at state level – where polls are few and far between – one poll which struggles to form a series can have a large impact on perceptions, and thus the interpretations of the public and the press and the morale of politicians and “momentum”.

Continue reading ‘The truth of polls and the epistemology of politics’

“Bill Henson principal” cleared

Hardly any great surprise here:

An investigation by the Victorian Education Department has cleared the principal who allowed artist Bill Henson to scout St Kilda Park Primary School for talent of any wrongdoing.

The State Government is also refusing to ban Henson from future playground visits.

The question that needs to be asked now is why John Brumby was so quick to issue the now apparently customary and/or compulsory loud condemn, before he had even initiated an investigation. Either Brumby was insincere and joining the populist outrage crew because, hey, that’s what all pollies apparently do, or his judgement on matters pertaining to schools sucks when it comes to the results of a professional investigation and assessment of the circumstances. Either way, it’s a bad look. And either way, it raises the question of prejudging an inquiry Brumby himself called for. Not a particularly distinguished chapter in the story of Victorian governance and politics, I’d suggest.

Related posts: The extensive archive of posts on Henson and discussion on LP can be accessed here.

Labor states on the nose!!!

I’ve written before about why I think that the “media narrative” masquerading as psephological analysis that there’s some sort of automatic fall in support for state Labor parties because of some putative desire among voters to have different parties governing at different levels. I suspect the proximate origin of this meme is actually the “wall to wall Labor” scare the Liberals ran in last year’s election. As Kim was suggesting the other day, this is a political tactic that normally indicates despair among incumbents, and it’s completely wrong to assume it reflects some sort of psephological law or reality in voting behaviour. Anyone familiar with the political science literature knows that attempts to demonstrate any posited strong correlation between state and federal partisan choices over time falls down very quickly – even in New South Wales where it’s long been political myth that the strongest case can be made. In part that’s because there are two few cases of actual partisan change in elections over much of the postwar period – something that becomes immediately apparent when you think about the fact that the federal government didn’t turn over at all between 1949 and 1972.

There was another outbreak of this guff on Monday in The Australian, apropos of quarterly newspolls in New South Wales and Victoria. There was the usual news story and two op/ed pieces to ram home the point. It was intriguing to see the frame applied to the comments of ABC election analyst Antony Green: Continue reading ‘Labor states on the nose!!!’

Abortion is now legal in Victoria

Finally, Victoria’s abortion laws make explicit the clinical practice of the past several decades, with the passing of the legislation in the Upper House on Friday.

Continue reading ‘Abortion is now legal in Victoria’