Tag Archive for 'Keynes'

Kevin Rudd, Gordon Brown, Adam Smith and free markets

As Kevin Rudd joined Gordon Brown in decrying “the false god” of “unfettered free markets” in London’s St Paul’s Cathedral, Janet Albrechtsen got her apoplexy in early, lamenting the fact that Kevin Rudd doesn’t read Hayek (apparently Ayaan Hirsi Ali has offered to tutor the Prime Minister in the guru of “economics and the rule of law”).

Albrechtsen tied herself in a series of knots trying to find the “gotcha” moment in Rudd’s ideological discourse. In point of fact, it’s quite possible to reconcile fiscal conservatism with being a social democrat, but the Hayek worshippers seem stuck in an age when there was supposedly a slippery slope between any view that markets are social institutions and socialism itself.

Here, it’s perhaps interesting that Gordon Brown chose to invoke Adam Smith on several occasions, a thinker to whom the authors of Hayekian dribble pay only occasional and meaningless obeisance:

Now, let me put markets in context. They can create unrivalled widening of choices and chances, harnessing self-interest to produce results transcending self-interest. When they work, they will fulfil the promise of Adam Smith that individual gain leads to collective gain, that even when people are pursuing private interests and private wishes they can nevertheless deliver public good.

But as we are discovering to our considerable cost, the problem is that, without transparent rules to guide them, free markets can reduce all relationships to transactions, all motivations to self-interest; as Jonathan Sacks has said, they can reduce all sense of value to consumer choice, all sense of worth to a price tag. So, unbridled and untrammelled, they can become the enemy of the good society.

And we can now see also that markets cannot self-regulate, but they can self-destruct and, again, if untrammelled and unbridled, they can become not just the enemy of the good society; they can become the enemy of the good economy. Markets are in the public interest but they are not synonymous with it.

Gordon Brown, a former university lecturer with a History PhD from Edinburgh, perhaps has a better claim to public intellectual status than Kevin Rudd. His whole speech is worth a read, and the full text is here (as is Rudd’s). Continue reading ‘Kevin Rudd, Gordon Brown, Adam Smith and free markets’

The Obama inauguration: some interesting links

There’s probably literally millions of reactions to Barack Obama’s inauguration on the intertubes today, so I wanted to try to highlight some more specific articles and posts which raise some interesting issues which might otherwise get lost in the crowd. [The text is here.]

Two of the more pressing questions since the election in November have been how Obama will respond to the global financial crisis and from what political position he will seek to govern. Both, in a way, have been answered, but hardly definitively. It’s worth observing in passing – and the point is a crucial one for us here in Australia – that the selective invocation of the mantra “there’s only one President at a time” means that we know very little about what the new administration’s stance on global financial regulatory issues and the governance architecture of the world economy will be. Such decisions as are taken – and paths not taken – will probably be of more lasting moment than how effectively and quickly his fiscal stimulus works to turn around America’s domestic economy. But, in that regard, the addition of tax cuts to the infrastructure investment proposed in his domestic package (to corral in some congressional Republican support, or so it’s being framed) reflects a debate about the composition of any stimulus which is important, and to some degree being played out, in our own context as well. Here, I was intrigued to see Andrew Leonard at Salon’s How The World Works blog suggest that a passage in the Inaugural address shows Obama has come down on the Keynesian side of the argument. (And to see Leonard compare Obama’s eloquence with Keynes’, to the former’s detriment.)

Continue reading ‘The Obama inauguration: some interesting links’

Unemployment and social responsibility

The economic news of the day was a fall in the number of jobs advertised – as measured by ANZ – to “recession levels” – the eighth successive monthly drop. A number of economists extrapolated this to an unemployment rate of around 7% by year’s end. Of course, the trend may not be a straight line, but these things have a habit of being self-reinforcing. It’s interesting to note that the Federal Opposition could currently have their own favourite line of 2008 turned around on them – they’re arguably “talking up” unemployment at the moment. Julie Bishop might like to take a lesson from any number of Labor shadows from their decade plus in opposition – this doom and gloom isn’t necessarily smart, particularly when you’re briefing your mates in the press about how exciting it is that you might be back in power after only one term.

But of more moment, probably, is the response of those who actually make decisions about the labour market. Predictably, the Howard era Fair Pay Commission Chair, Ian Harper, warned that the low paid couldn’t expect much. This, despite the fact that the pay rises awarded by the FPC over the past two years failed to have the dire impact on employment predicted by business lobbies. It was interesting in this context to read a good piece by Mike Steketee in The Australian last week:

Some economists argue that cutting wages, particularly for the unskilled and low skilled, is the surest way of keeping more people in work. Quite apart from the fact that Labor’s ruling out such an option helped it win the last election, the main problem facing businesses is lack of demand for their products.

Cutting wages would reduce consumer demand further and it would run directly counter to the Government’s policy of putting more money into people’s pockets to try to put a floor under demand. In any case, the wages share of national income is the lowest for a generation, suggesting labour costs are less of a burden for business than in the past.

Continue reading ‘Unemployment and social responsibility’

Spend, spend, spend! It’s your patriotic duty… or something

The stock market has lost 51% of its value since its peak, a decline we’re told now exceeds the destruction of value seen in 1987. On the ABC News tonight, Alan Kohler grimly pointed to an index (tradeable, I think, but don’t quote me on that) of future sentiment which is apparently dire, and which apparently depressed that reified hive mind “the markets” even further. On Lateline Business, a British fellow in a very smart three piece pin stripe suit bemoaned the fact that all rationality in terms of valuation had departed from equities market, and what was left was “pure human sentiment” which apparently “isn’t pretty”. I think John Maynard Keynes might have had something to say about all that.

The stock market’s fall may also have had something to do with evidence of a growing deflation in consumer prices in America, or so opinionators opined. Well, I guess we don’t have the “inflation dragon” to kick around anymore.

And we’ve had another outpouring of deficit aversion, bipartisanship at last (!), in response to Glenn Steven’s expression of the belief that the government had a responsibility to “borrow to invest”.

And, yet, we’ve had a piece of prime silliness – to put alongside all these other signs of the times – in Crikey’s editorial:

There’s not a lot politicians can do. The Government handing money to low income earners who’ll have virtually no choice but to spend it makes sense, but there’s only a limited number of times a $10b heart-starter can be administered to the economy. Even the Opposition has been doing its bit lately, prefacing virtually every statement on the economy with the mantra that Australia is best-placed to weather these difficulties.

And there’s not much businesses can do without demand. It’s actually up to us consumers to realise Australia’s economic fate is in our hands, and act accordingly.

Righteo. Continue reading ‘Spend, spend, spend! It’s your patriotic duty… or something’

The state of capitalism today III

I can’t recall where I read this, but someone in one of the many interesting things written about the global financial crisis suggested that “Keynes” (of whom we’ve heard more lately than we’ve heard for a long time) might be a useful heuristic to understand what’s been happening rather than a real source of inspiration for policy responses or analyses. With all the calls for a new Bretton Woods, emanating from Gordon Brown (and Kevin Rudd), what appears to have been overlooked is that Keynes’ proposals at Bretton Woods itself were substantially modified to ensure the effective independence of the US currency from the financial architecture it put in place – something that’s explained quite deftly here. So, even at the height of “Keynesianism”, we never really had the rule-bound constraints on capitalist behaviour which the man himself had wanted to see. Similarly, there’s no great novelty in pump priming as a tool of macro-economic management and it’s better understood as a pragmatic mode of state intervention, which has been adopted as a tactic of governance, rather than as a paradigm shift in economic practice. Again, there are significant differences between Keynes’ own ideas and the “neo-Keynesian synthesis”.

However, I think we can now advance a few hypotheses, however tentative, about what’s occurring – in terms of both political economy and the sociology of knowledge.

Continue reading ‘The state of capitalism today III’