John Quiggin’s blog is on a temporary hiatus, which is a pity as I’d hoped he’d reproduce his article in the Financial Review today to enable it to reach a wider audience. Gary Sauer-Thompson summarises the gist of the article and offers some analysis of his own. Quiggin suggests that “the state of the Murray-Darling system is an indication of the price of ignoring climate change”. Quiggin argues that it’s been known since the 1980s that there was an urgent need to restore flows to the river system, and that the recent proposals have both been inadequate and indeed unable to be implemented because there simply isn’t enough water. The impact of the drought is such that releasing any flows from upstream - say from Cubbie Station in Queensland - would largely be a futile exercise as it’s estimated that 80% would be lost by evaporation or absorption into the water table. What we’re left with - in the absence of any real ameliating action and non-existent or very low flows into the lower part of the Murray from 2002 onwards - is the current choice between one ecological disaster and another worse one with regard to Lake Albert and Lake Alexandrina near the mouth of the Murray River.
All this implies that the cabinet decision today to spend an additional $50 million on purchasing water rights in the northern basin is futile. It really just compensates those irrigators whose allocations were the problem in the past for the rents foregone. It also suggest The Greens are also wrong in suggesting that there is a lifeline from releasing flows which would prove to be insufficient.
Quiggin concludes:
The desparate choices now facing us with respect to the Murray-Darling basin are a small indication of what we will face if the world fails to act quickly to control emissions of carbon dioxide and slow the rate of global warming. Sooner or later the necessity for action will become undeniable, but by then the relatively easy options available now will have been forclosed.
Instead of market-friendly options like emissions trading, we will be looking at command-and-control measures like the water restrictions now prevailing in most Australian cities. As far as the environment goes, the kind of triage operations now being applied to the icon sites of the Murray will be routine. Some vital ecosystems will be saved, at the cost of abandoning others.
Continue reading ‘Market based solutions and global warming: how viable for how long?’
The other day when I was talking about the findings in the Essential Research poll about public attitudes towards banks and passing on Reserve Bank interest rate cuts, I linked to Janet Albrechtsen’s column in which she loudly denounced populist bank bashing and asserted the Government and citizens should all be grateful to the banks:
The bottom line is this. The more the PM and the Treasurer bash the banks, the more they hurts Australian borrowers. Bank-bashing may feel good at the time but the subsequent pain will outweigh – heavily – the momentary pleasure. Anyone who understands the economy should understand that.
Anyone who understands economics? That apparently doesn’t include the Reserve Bank’s Deputy Governor Ric Battelino, who made these remarks to the House of Representatives Standing Committee on Economics yesterday, reinforcing a “detailed case” from Assistant Governor Phil Lowe:
When we look at bank profitability, we find that Australian banks are around the top of the international range. On the surface, this could indicate a lesser degree of competition than elsewhere. But when we look a bit deeper it seems that an important reason for the high profitability of Australian banks is their unusually low bad debt experience.
That’s directly opposed to Planet’s arguments, any disagreement with which she denounced as “hypocrisy” and “ignorance”. Let’s dwell on the first of those nouns. Stephen Mayne revealed on Tuesday that Albrechtsen’s husband John O’Sullivan works in the banking sector, and that their family wealth was enhanced by remuneration including Commonwealth Bank shares worth $5.1 million. O’Sullivan received them as a senior CommBank exec. Does Janet disclose any of this? And this is the mob who have been crusading all week for the public “right to know”?
The details can be found at The Poll Bludger’s joint. Nelson’s down 2 points (within the moe) but no doubt that will start off another round of Costello fantasising, even if the audience for that sort of idiocy will be even less than it usually is with the Olympics and all. It’ll be as meaningless as the change in the poll, and the relatively meaningless measure itself.
Of much more interest is the new kid on the polling block, Essential Research (which btw has Labor 58-42 on the 2PP). The online poll has been mixing it up a bit with different questions. You can read all the results here, but I wanted to focus on the question on interest rates and the banks.
Continue reading ‘Newspoll Tuesday: Labor 57-43 (populist bank bashing edition)’
Unsurprisingly, the release of the government’s discussion paper on the pension system has prompted calls for immediate action. Perhaps the opposition were all waiting for Godot Costello somewhere because The Greens appear to have been first out of the starting block, with Senator Rachel Siewert calling for an instant $30 increase and damning “yet another review”.
The discussion paper emphasises the fact that 77% of Australians over 65 rely to greater or lesser degree on income support. It also highlights the fact that on current projections, the percentage of the population over 65 will rise from 13% now to 25% by 2047. Few aged pensioners currently supplement their income with paid work, but that can be expected to increase, and there may also be debates about the age cut-in as the labour supply situation alters and health outcomes improve. Because the income support system costs 6.8% of GDP, its sustainability is very relevant, and increases are also very expensive because of the very large number of recipients. The paper also considers those on Disability Support and Carer pensions, where the issues are different for many - with fewer having substantial assets and more receiving some income from paid work.
Continue reading ‘Pension review paper prompts calls for immediate increase’
There are some interesting power games and shifts happening in WA politics at the moment, which make this state election slightly more interesting than it would otherwise be. I’m sure they will have very little effect on the outcome of the election (I’m sure Mr Poll Bludger can confirm or correct me here) although some of them may have an effect on the dynamics of the government afterwards.
Continue reading ‘Party Games*’
There’s a fair bit of analysis of and commentary on the Northern Territory election results around the blogosphere.
The Poll Bludger is progressively updating late counting, while Tim Dunlop discusses the low turnout. Antony Green also looks at the impact of absentee votes and is critical of the administration of the election and Andrew Bartlett discusses the coverage of the election, and has some other interesting observations.
I noticed the usual predictable “it spells doom for the Rudd government” and “no it was fought on territory issues” dichotomy being produced in comments by pollies yesterday. I doubt that either Julie Bishop on one hand or Chris Bowen and Stephen Smith on the other were really following the election closely and that they are speaking with any authority on this matter. It’s always possible that they were privy to some internal polling, but unlikely in my judgement. I’d prefer to get some information on the dynamics of the contest from someone who’s actually an informed Territorian, so I’d take a lot more notice of Ken Parish’s take on the campaign and the result at Troppo.
Continue reading ‘Northern Territory election result analysis links post’
As a bit of a follow up to the post on PJK’s various bomb throwing exercises (that - as you may recall - was the business he said he was in many years ago), I wanted to note two things.
The first is the lamentable habit Rudd has retained of retail politics Howard style. So we get grabs on the tv news every night of what Rudd thinks about x y and z - many of which have zip to do with the job of being PM. Let’s not forget the excuse for bringing the Beazer down - mixing Rove McManus and Karl Rove up. Perhaps the twenty something whiz kids Inside Kevin08 have a better grasp of pop culture, but would you really trust KRudd to comment on the political pop culture story of the week - Paris Hilton? Maybe the dude got where he is today in part because he was on breakfast telly and FM radio all the time, but isn’t there some truth to what Keating says about not just the dignity of the office but also trivialising the Prime Ministerial voice? When the Orstrayan public becomes less enamoured of Kevvy than we are at the moment, could it be that we’ll be as uninterested in what he has to say about economic policy as what he thinks of the last cricket result or all those many many many artistic and intertube-ish threats to teh kiddies? (Which probably - incidentally - needlessly alienates part of his support base without really gaining him much…)
Secondly, there’s a very sensible piece by Bernard Keane in today’s Crikey on the narrative thing. It repays reading in full but there’s one bit I wanted to highlight.
Continue reading ‘And the hero of the narrative is…’
In a fit of predictability, incumbent Labor Premier Alan “I used to be a credible journalist, don’t you know” Carpenter is promising “vision, leadership, and stability” - the last one of the three, at least, might play to Labor’s strengths.
Resurrected Liberal leader Colin “Don’t mention the canal” Barnett is promising that he’s not Troy Buswell. And doesn’t at all look like the kind of bloke who could be caught sniffing chairs.
The first night is all about predictability - Barnett is claiming that the snap election has been called because Labor is running scared (of him, presumably). Carpenter is denying that the snap election has been called to take advantage of the leadership turmoil in the Liberal ranks.
Despite some rustlings of dissent from the local commentariat - local political commentators are largely calling the move a political mistake - a call based largely, I suspect, on the idea that if Barnett isn’t as thoroughly unpopular as Buswell was, the Libs should therefore cruise to an easy win.
There may be something to that view - certainly Buswell was regarded in WA with the kind of amused contempt that makes it difficult to get any political traction, and it is entirely possible that WA electors have forgotten exactly why it is they didn’t vote for Barnett last time. And there is no doubt at all that Carpenter isn’t held in the same regard as Geoff Gallop, and certainly doesn’t have the same campaigning experience as his predecessor.
But when you consider the raw mechanics of Carpenter’s decision, it starts to look like a potentially very good decision indeed.
Continue reading ‘Day 1 of the WA State Election…and we’re all bored already.’
I haven’t had time to even glance at the paper that the Henry Review released yesterday as the first step in its comprehensive review of the taxation and welfare transfer systems. It’s available here on the web in pdf form. Both Tim Dunlop and Peter Martin have some reflections in posts on their respective blogs.
Very clearly, the fact that it takes a major Treasury research paper to establish the dimensions and scope of our taxation system(s) suggests that complexity is a problem. However, simplification is only one of the possible economic and social goals that could flow from a review of our taxation arrangements. Well resourced business lobbies will be having their say. I’d be interested in any input from any resident tax policy wonks here, and also in a broader discussion about what sort of goals the taxation system should serve.
And if anyone’s clued up on all this and wants to do a guest post, do get in touch!
…so the Poll Bludger reports. Looks like Alan Carpenter is taking a leaf out of the Peter Beattie book and dashing to the polls while the opposition is still mired in leadership confusion and disunity.
Well, hasn’t it been a busy week or so for NSW Minister John Della Bosca and his wife, Federal backbencher MP Belinda Neal?
Of course, for the last few days we’ve only been hearing about her, despite Della Bosca’s documented history of multiple traffic offences leading to a revoked driving license and allegations that he was part of the alleged drunken and abusive behaviour in a Central Coast nightclub last weekend.
Last month Della Bosca’s licence was revoked for six months following a series of speeding offences, after which he reportedly swore at a newspaper photographer for taking pictures of him riding a bicycle.
Yesterday, he refused to speak to irate teachers who invaded his office to vent their fury at the Government’s decision to change the rules under which school principals hire staff. [source]
Perhaps the newspapers are a bit bored with Della Bosca’s temper, plus although people like to lampoon him he’s simply not that easy a target for anything more (such as collecting a political scalp for the editor’s wall), due to the degree of power he wields in the NSW Labor party. But his wife doesn’t have the same powerbase behind her, and besides - a woman with a filthy temper, there’s a news story with legs - cue hordes of gleefully chortling editors. Neal’s excesses have made the international newspapers now, which gives us a very pithy summary of the key points that are being latched onto for the news cycle: Continue reading ‘Power couple politics NSW style and the alleged disciplinary double standard’
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