Larvatus Prodeo

At 1pm AEDT today, the Liberal Party will meet for a leadership vote, with the only declared challenger to Malcolm Turnbull being Kevin Andrews.

I stand by the analysis I offered last night – Turnbull has the numbers, and if he has the will, he can re-establish his leadership on the basis of these events.

The numbers on the CPRS bill can’t be transposed to the leadership. The Nats don’t have a vote for that, and George Brandis on Lateline was very pointed in emphasising that Turnbull had a larger majority among *Liberals*. Brandis also commented that several who disagreed with Turnbull on the ETS strongly supported his leadership.

Tony Abbott’s behaviour, in praising Turnbull this morning, demonstrates that he knows which way the wind is now blowing, and wants to preserve his position in the face of possible retribution against those who’ve sought to bring their leader down.

Liberal MPs who want to chuck Turnbull out had the opportunity to do so last night, and didn’t take it? Why? Because he has a majority of the Liberal party behind him as leader. That will become clear when he defeats Andrews today.

Parliament rises for the year on Friday.

How, exactly, is he going to be toppled? By a strongly worded Wilson Tuckey email?

All this media stuff about the “killing fields of December” is all well and good, but they don’t decide the leadership on the basis of counting op/eds but by a vote of their parliamentary party.

As I argued last night, Turnbull now has the power to reward and punish, and the reporting of the lobbying before the meeting made it clear that his numbers people were concentrating dissidents’ minds about the long delayed reshuffle.

The Libs might of course be insane enough to topple him this afternoon, but if not, he’s got til February to re-establish his leadership, and has some weapons with which to do that. It’s not certain that he will do so, but in my view, he has the chance to rebuild his position, and I’d be very surprised indeed if he doesn’t take it. I imagine that he regards these events as a game changer. He’s clearly appealling over the head of his own party to public opinion, and that was made evident in his press conference last night.

The commentariat appear to be following the “doomed leader” script. What about the “strong leader stands up to dinosaurs in his own party and gains extra kudos” script? Or what about recognising that politics is more complex and unpredictable than a menu of ‘media narratives’ might suggest?

Update: The ABC is live streaming Kevin Andrews’ press conference here.

Update: Follow the Liberal madness on Twitter.

Update: Malcolm Turnbull has survived a secret ballot on a leadership spill motion 48-35.

Update: Abbott has resigned, further developments anticipated. Please comment on the new thread here.