(a) It’s been intriguing to see the focus of political discussion narrow to the Parliamentary dramatics. Journalists – and one suspects, many Liberal MPs – appear to have completely lost sight of the effect that Turnbull’s stand might be having on the public. I’d be very surprised if there isn’t a lot of sympathy for him and his position. Yet those normally obsessed with Newspoll now equate politics with a bunch of lunatics gathered in Nick Minchin’s office, rather than even stopping to think about how all this might be playing with voters. I wonder whether Newspoll will be asking questions about the Liberal leadership this weekend – its owners might not like the answers;

(b) The Liberal Right have shown themselves to be completely unelectable crazies. Liberals are not Republicans and Australia is not America. This appears to be news to some, and it’s hard to know why;

(c) Conversely, text messages and phone calls and emails from Liberal party members and Andrew Bolt’s followers do not equate to a shift in public opinion. The Libs’ only chance of being an effective opposition, and gathering votes in the centre, is to go with Turnbull’s position. The much vaunted ‘base’ will not vote Labor in a pink fit, and a stack of Liberal seats would be at risk if a Leader is elected who is a reactionary on Howard era issues such as climate change denialism and industrial relations. That was clear enough from Kevin Andrews’ press conference where most questions were about the past, and his right wing stance. This is John Howard’s poisonous legacy to his party;

(d) Talk of Turnbull’s ‘management style’ is merely code for the Liberal right refusing to be led by one not of their own. ‘Consultation’ means caving in to dinosaurs. Who’s really the arrogant one in this equation? More likely to be Nick Minchin and his mates;

(e) If Turnbull is toppled tomorrow or on Monday, and leaves Parliament, who really believes an Abbott led Liberal Party would retain Wentworth in a by-election? This is the craziness – Members like Michael Johnson in Ryan calling for Turnbull’s ousting while holding a ‘leafy’ and very marginal seat which has many moderate Liberal voters. It’s not the only one. Kelly O’Dwyer in Higgins, for instance, is going to face a lot of pressure to take a stand on climate change and the ETS in the lead up to the by-election for Peter Costello’s former seat. The Liberals’ actual base is multiple and plural, and they can’t hold it by playing only to the revanchists.

Update: Turnbull’s press conference is now on YouTube.

Elsewhere: Politically Homeless.

Elsewhere: Club Troppo, The Stump.

Update: Fresh post – Abbott will stand for the leadership on Monday.

There is speculation there may be another move for a leadership spill, which would mean that Andrews’ candidacy was pure stalking horse.

I must say I’m surprised by how crazy the Libs really can be. There’s been a lot of talk today about Turnbull’s need to mend fences with the right wing. I still can’t see how that would be a viable political strategy for him – he can only lead effectively from a position as a moderniser. But perhaps the Liberals just can’t be led on this basis. If Abbott becomes leader, they will have demonstrated they can certainly be led off a cliff, though I think the other talk around today about the demise of the Liberals is a premature call.

Update: Liberal whips have asked parliamentarians not to leave the House, Sophie Mirabella has also resigned. Follow developments (and a lot of speculation) at Twitter.

Update: Eric Abetz and Tony Smith have reportedly also resigned. Talk is of a Tony Abbott/Tony Smith leadership ticket.

Update: Malcolm Turnbull will give a press conference at 7pm AEDT. Barnaby Joyce has told Sky News he expects Turnbull to step down.

Update: The ABC is streaming Turnbull’s media conference live.

Update: Turnbull has dug in, and thrown down the gauntlet to ‘climate skeptics’, saying no credible party can have a do-nothing stance on climate change. A strong performance in his press conference.

Update: Minchin has resigned, but will stay on until the end of this parliamentary session. Turnbull says that enough Liberal senators will vote for the CPRS to ensure its passage.

Update: Turnbull will announce a reshuffled front bench after Parliament rises.

Update: Liking Turnbull’s crazy brave stance. Someone had to stand up to the madness of the Howardian Liberal right wing. Politics is unpredictable! Turnbull might still prevail. Can anyone actually imagine an Abbott led opposition committed to inaction on climate change, Workchoices redux, etc?

Update: On Sky News, David Speers read out a text message from a Liberal MP comparing Turnbull to Hitler. I’ll make the point I made last night – we’re seeing epic Liberal right wing FAIL. They’re showing their completely nutty and unelectable face.

Elsewhere: Rundle and Keane at The Stump, Public Opinion, Hoyden About Town, New Matilda, Politically Homeless and Greens Blog on the CPRS legislation’s passage.

Update: New post – Five propositions on the Liberal Right’s week of FAIL.

What I would hope, I guess, is that Turnbull should take a harder line on climate change. The suggestion from Garnaut that we can start softly, softly, with 10 or 15 per cent for his target in 2020 is nonsense, against the sort of targets Australia has to meet by 2050. In those terms, I think Turnbull should be taking a harder line, pushing Rudd to do more, setting a high jump bar if you like, against which Rudd will be measured and they would have more significant consequences for business.

Business is great at sort of putting off adjustments, whether it was workplace safety or training or any of the other issues that have dominated the last 20 years. They’ve always shirked them. Business response to climate change has been “fine for everybody else, but not us” and really the adjustments have to be made, the big issues have to be addressed and you can’t play catch-up. The whole process is front-end loaded, so I think it will be an interesting debate, if Turnbull goes out there and argues a stronger case in that area and pushes Rudd to do more, but he may just sit back as Brendan Nelson was doing and say “we won’t lead the world” and so it will be an interesting debate.

John Quiggin doesn’t think Turnbull will depart from the current position, based on his ministerial performance and his failure to take any sort of consistent policy position as Shadow Treasurer.

A couple of years ago, I would have been confident of his willingness and ability to do this. Now I doubt it.

Incidentally, it was interesting to see the Fin Review report a number of finance sector businesses, including Westpac, arguing against the compensation/exemptions agenda of the polluters and for some rigour and meaning in the ETS. So it’s not as though Turnbull couldn’t construct a narrative of business legitimacy, which as a Liberal leader, he would presumably need to do. Nick Minchin et al will have to be damned.

So far, we haven’t seen very much at all in the way of leadership from Turnbull. Perhaps that’s an unfair test at this stage, but going along with some of Brendan’s whackier negativism and his “consultation” thing doesn’t sit well with Turnbull’s self-presentation at both his press conference and on the 7 30 Report.

That self-presentation has been all about drawing a contrast between his strength as a Leader and Rudd’s bureaucratic hesitancy. There’s potentially a very viable line of political attack there, but it relies on Turnbull himself actually taking some “hard decisions”, even if some in his party don’t like them. And therein lies his problem, as I’ve also suggested.

Ps: Expect Labor to ease off on the silvertail stuff now. What the press gallery and political junkies forget is that Turnbull won’t be all that well known at all to the majority of the voting public. A new leader – unless they’ve been around forever – has a very small window in which to define themselves, or be defined by the other side. Part of Nelson’s problem was the initial confusion in his messaging, and his story about himself. Another part was the instant disappointment of part of the meejah who didn’t get the candidate they wanted (the crazies at the OO were still in shock at that stage). Labor will have been trying to pin the “rich arrogant guy” label on Turnbull at maximum stealth volume when everyone was paying attention. They’ll probably tune it down now, hoping it will have stuck.

Malcolm Turnbull needs to give up on placating all those who still long for the departed Howard’s firm hand. The Liberal Party needs to eschew stunts and populism and restore its tattered economic credibility (which was actually junked by Howard and Costello themselves – that was obvious enough in last year’s election but now it’s plain as day). It also needs to move with the times and take a responsible position on an ETS and trim its sails to fit the socially liberal winds that have been blowing – unsniffed as they were by the Tony Abbotts and Nick Minchins of the world.

But Turnbull is completely capable of squibbing all this. He may mistake the need to placate the diehard Liberal Right and “defend the legacy” as necessary pragmatism. If he does, he might be safer at the despatch box, but he will be repeating the same mistakes that brought Nelson down. Though without the jam and baked beans.

Turnbull’s selection of a Shadow Cabinet will give us a big clue as to how he’s going to shape the Opposition. Shadow Treasurer and Shadow Climate Change Minister in particular. And make no mistake, he has to shape the Opposition, not try to keep all its factions happy. A very difficult balancing act indeed, because the structural faults in both the party and in its electoral position haven’t been magicked away.

Elsewhere: Some more analysis from Sam Clifford at Public Polity. Update: And more from Pavlov’s Cat.

Blogosphere roundup: More commentary from Possum, Politically homeless, Andrew Bartlett, Corporate Engagement, Musings of an inappropriate woman, Road to Surfdom and Woolly Days.

Another one for the blog roundup: what it feels like for a boi.

Wait, there’s more!: Joanne Jacobs, The Poll Bludger and John Quiggin.

You have to wonder if there’s not some level at which this is a bit of subconscious revenge on Peter Costello, whose book launch tomorrow will now surely be “overshadowed”, as the meejah like to say.

Let’s see if the Turnbull boosters’ claims that they already have the numbers are right. Or will Malcolm Turnbull even put his hand up? What happens if he loses? Surely he couldn’t stay on the front bench. Nelson must be dreaming if he thinks this will end the thing. If he marginalises Turnbull to curry favour with the hard right, he’s still got a divided party. If he keeps Turnbull on the front bench, he looks weak. But at least it might kill off the Costellology.

Update: Michael Brissenden reported on the 7 30 Report that Nelson had been more angry than ever seen before (is that possible?) at a party room meeting and had promised to “clean out” his office and the front bench if he wins. He could lose endless commentator Tony Abbott for a start, and the promise regarding the office presumably refers to his habit of going off the reservation and making policy unilaterally – for instance with the $30 a week pension increase. Presumably the implication that Nelson will be clearing out his desk is unintended, but maybe interesting in a Freudian slippy sorta way.

More strange is a reported promise to “toughen up” the line on climate change while simultaneously walking away from the carping opposition to same sex rights in the Senate. This sounds like a typical Nelson left/right straddle to me, but apparently he’s going to show a “different” side to his leadership. More props? No more truck trekking? Who knows?

Turnbull is standing by the way.

More: Possum has posted Nelson’s press release.

Update: Bruce Billson, the Shadow Minister for Communications (who knew?), duly communicated on Lateline tonight. It wasn’t 100% clear, but he seemed to be suggesting that Malcolm Turnbull might remain on the front bench if Nelson wins. Yeah, right, that’d be smart. But it does show that Nelson’s inclusive or something. Oh, and “strong action on climate change without wrecking the economy” may or may not be a different stance from their most recent unintelligible confusion. But communications expert Billson appeared pleased that it was a nifty soundbite. Who thinks that somehow all this isn’t going to be over tomorrow morning?

Decided [by Kim]: It’s Turnbull by 45-41. New open thread here.

Update [by Kim]: I’ve put up a post with some analysis of what Turnbull needs to do here.

Elsewhere: Hoyden, Surfdom, Poll Bludger.

<img src="http://larvatusprodeo.net/wp-content/uploads/2008/09/nelsonbeans.jpg"

Photo courtesy of Grodscorp.