Tag Archive for 'Liberal Party'

Gillard’s new IR laws and the business response

Published
by
Mark
5 days, 22 hours ago
in Industrial Relations
. 82 Comments

Julia Gillard is certainly capable of a sophisticated negotiating strategy, and it’s been interesting to observe that the process of formulating the legislation to implement Forward With Fairness and replace WorkChoices - while managed largely behind closed doors - was accompanied over the year by a fair bit of crowing from business that they’d extracted more concessions than in the two documents released before last year’s election. However, the ALP caucus and the ACTU also belatedly secured more of what they wanted - particularly in last resort arbitration, multi-enterprise bargaining for low paid workers, good faith bargaining and union entry and records inspections rights. I wouldn’t be entirely surprised if such changes were always contemplated, and certainly explicit attention to the needs of workers with poor bargaining power spread across a number of work sites (for instance cleaners or employees in light manufacturing) was part of the election policy. What is entirely predictable is the tenor of the business reaction, which you can get a sense of quickly by reading this story from yesterday’s Australian. Unions are back and the sky will fall in! In fact, the points business objects to really just serve to underpin bargaining. There’s an element of balancing equity with efficiency, which has always been part of the IR framework in Australia, but we certainly haven’t “gone back to the future”. In many ways, the legislation could legitimately have gone further in redressing some of the imbalance of power in the bargaining process.

If, although as one would imagine there’s some equivocation going on, the opposition allow the laws to pass substantially unaltered, the business whining will be futile. That in itself may push the opposition into a more negative stance. The passage of the laws through the Senate early next year could get interesting.

Rudd one year on

Published
by
Mark
1 week ago
in Government, Howardia, Policy and Politics
. 111 Comments

Well, having opened a thread that perhaps proves that Ute Man is still out there but not actually supporting Emo Man, it behoves me, I guess, to have a bit of a say about the tenure of the Rudd government to date. To some degree all these sorts of anniversaries are somewhat artificial, as you can easily see in the United States with the fetish of the “first hundred days”. Governments will eventually be judged by the electorate in due season, as Kevin Rudd would say, and as almost all politicians intone (particularly those who are dissatisfied with their contemporary popularity), in the end they will be judged by history - whose verdict is perhaps as mythical as the Judgement of Paris, but never mind that. However, as I was suggesting, if politics and public discussion is cruelled by the vagaries and obsessions of an ever shorter media cycle, a year really is a long time in government, and it is worth taking stock.

It can also be interesting to compare first term governments at this stage of the electoral cycle, and here the obvious contrast - despite all the media beatups - is the absence of major scandal and ministerial resignations compared to both the Hawke and Howard governments. That doesn’t, of course, imply that all the Labor ministers are fabulous, but it is worth observing.

One of the things that’s interested me in the discussion that had already began quite a while before we reached the actual milestone is that in both comments on this blog and in conversations with some friends I’ve seen the sentiment expressed that simply avoiding hearing a daily litany of horrors from the Howard crew is Rudd’s greatest achievement. It might, and no doubt will, be objected that - “lefties would say that, wouldn’t they?” But I think there are a couple of points here. First, there is no doubt that a government with a more humanitarian tinge and an appreciation of propriety and ethics is to be welcomed, and that sentiment - along with the promise keeping - will be a contributor to Labor’s continuing lead in the polls. Secondly, I think The Howard Years has been interestingly timed to stimulate some comparison and to reinforce the whole sense of relief that we don’t have that turgid mob to kick around any more.

But, again, one thing that wore out the Coalition’s welcome with the electorate was the constant “rabbits out of the hat” and the whole bag of divisive tricks, along with the internal ructions and the cockiness of ministers. I agree that the Liberals are still playing at the same game in many ways. John Howard was elected in 1996 as a safe pair of hands and the Libs were “the party of order”, if you like. By the end of their fourth term, they looked like the risky and unsafe proposition and Kevin Rudd’s calm demeanour undoubtedly contributed much to Labor’s victory. WorkChoices was also probably the biggest single mistake the Coalition made, and the related apprehension that worse would follow and more leadership instability also condemned the Howard government to defeat.

But what of policy, and that shibboleth beloved of the punditariat, “the narrative”? Continue reading ‘Rudd one year on’

Open Rudd government first anniversary thread

Published
by
Mark
1 week, 1 day ago
in Politics
. 46 Comments

I’m sticking to my no politics on the weekend rule, and have a busy day tomorrow, so I’m going to save up my thoughts on the first anniversary of the defeat of the Howard government and the election of the Rudd Labor government for later on. But there’s no doubt that there will be a fair bit of discussion about it, so please feel free to use this thread for posting links, and making any observations you may have. I think it is a useful milestone to place the government’s performance in some sort of perspective that’s deeper and less transient than the everyday trivialities of most political commentary.

Update: Here’s my take, focusing more on politics than policy. Graham Young looks at the deficit issue. An Onymous Lefty emphasises the Not Howard issue. At Crikey, Bernard Keane wishes everyone a Happy Kruddiversary and readers weigh in, and Scott Bridges writes in New Matilda.

Update: Andrew Bartlett notes the anniversary and the fact that it happily coincides with the long over due removal of statutory discrimination against same sex couples.

LP sets the media agenda on Turnbull!

Published
by
Kim
1 week, 6 days ago
in Howardia and Media
. 16 Comments

That’s a bit of irony, by the way! But I was interested to see Crikey come out with this:

But you get the sense Turnbull also gets worried whenever he’s out of the headlines for any length of time. In politics, sometimes a low profile can be useful. Sometimes it’s best to let attention focus on your opponents. But Turnbull may not have worked that out yet.

That’s actually what we’ve been saying for a very long time, most recently in this post.

What I’d add to it is that Malcolm also doesn’t realise that people aren’t all that enamoured of politicians constantly being in their face. That was one of the big things that played against Howard last year - people finally got sick of all the ranting and raving, the constant “changes of the national conversation”, bombastic personal attacks, etc, etc. This is why Kevin Rudd’s measured and calm style works politically - he’s positioned as the safe pair of hands, and the opposition come across as the permanent politicians. And guess what? (As KRudd might say) - Australians don’t like politicians as a rule.

“Letting the market rip”

Published
by
Mark
1 week, 6 days ago
in Education, Media, Parenting and Policy
. 112 Comments

I’ve been wondering when someone would wake up to the fact that the implosion of ABC Learning likely poses a political problem for the Liberals. Bernard Keane has:

It was the idea of making money from looking after children that so many people found objectionable, and the fact that they had no choice but to participate due to the lack of child care choice in their area. It was almost like WorkChoices for the under-fives. And there was the suspicion that ABC Learning cut corners and offered lower quality care — a view reinforced when it tried to stop the Victorian Government from inspecting its centres and argued its directors weren’t legally responsible for the children in the company’s care, when figures emerged of the company driving down the wages and working conditions of its staff, and when stories emerged of poor quality care.

That’s all now linked to the Coalition. Not just because of the subsidies model that massively expanded under John Howard, but because of the company’s willingness to embrace the Coalition, with Sallyanne Atkinson as chair and Larry Anthony on the board. ABC Learning has now become emblematic of the Howard Government’s approach to childcare, and Eddie Groves will come to be identified with the era just as surely as Alan Bond and Christopher Skase represented the Hawke years.

For those of us in Brisbane who remember Sallyanne Atkinson as both Liberal Lord Mayor and perenially unsuccessful federal candidate, her protestations about her own financial position and avoidance of responsibility repeatedly made in the Courier-Mail have been an all too familiar, and quite predictable tale. Particularly damaging, and revealing, are her comments expressing puzzlement about how ABC could lose money - being a “government supported business”. Keane is quite correct to say that the sorry tale of ABC Learning will redound on the Coalition. But I also think he doesn’t quite understand the paradigm shift in public thinking he himself describes - and I note that bloggers and commenters here at LP were questioning the validity of the market childcare model a long time ago - when he writes: Continue reading ‘“Letting the market rip”’

He’s tanned, rested, and ready to lead!

Published
by
Kim
3 weeks ago
in Media and Polls
. 27 Comments

Newspoll has Labor on 55% 2PP (up 1 point, within the MOE). Kevin Rudd is on 62% (up 3) on the PPM to Malcolm Turnbull’s 22% (down 3).

Brendan Nelson peaked at 16%.

The Opposition Organ says:

But it remains substantially higher than his predecessor Brendan Nelson.

How substantial is substantial, I wonder?

Continue reading ‘He’s tanned, rested, and ready to lead!’

Malcolm’s modus operandi

Published
by
Kim
3 weeks ago
in Media and Politics
. 12 Comments

We’ve been pointing out in a range of posts here that Malcolm Turnbull’s “comment on everything” approach, and, for that matter, the preparedness of journos to let the Opposition lead a lot of the news cycle, may be counterproductive. And the fact that a lot of what he has to say is driven by a lawyerly knack for exploring supposed holes in government statements and announcements.

So, over the last few days, we’ve had Malcolm ask whether the government actually wants to subsidise unprofitable childcare centres, where the detail is on the $22 million support being extended to ABC learning, and so on. This is dumb politically. And the answers to the questions are obvious - that not for profits are negotiating with the receivers, that childcare centres which don’t make a commercial profit can reinvest any revenue in better services and care, and that the situation is a developing one. It’s not rocket science - people want to know that their kids will still have childcare places, not the sorts of answers Turnbull wants.

And Turnbull has been forced to clarify his statements to correct the impression - which you could easily get from his questions - that he wanted to let “market forces” close down the centres. Just as he was forced to clarify an impression left by the only thing anyone highlighted from his “media offensive” over the weekend - that he thought Therese Rein was rude by not becoming his buddy. Now we know that he just thinks Kevin Rudd isn’t polite enough to him.

Let’s be clear about this. Malcolm Turnbull has foot in mouth syndrome.

The politics of debt and liquidity

Published
by
Mark
1 month ago
in Economics, Markets and Media
. 25 Comments

We’ve had almost a week now of the press gallery writing about the alleged effects of the bank guarantee deposit on managed funds. With lots of alarums… Commentators who were praising Kevin Rudd a couple of weeks ago for “decisive action” to address the financial crisis are now bemoaning “policy on the run”. Is this as good as it gets when it comes to serious analysis of the economy and of Australian politics?

It’s crystal clear that the government was never going to offer a guarantee to bail out investors in market-linked funds. There’s no surprise here - Wayne Swan and Kevin Rudd both said so days ago, yet we’ve had the media either speculating on whether they will or attacking them for not being clear about their intentions for days. Nor was the offer to allow managed funds to become banks some silver bullet. It was obviously something of a feint to urge the big banks, who in many cases are the owners of such funds, to provide liquidity and capital and/or rejig their corporate structure. Meanwhile the government has been exploring the possibility of allowing ASIC to grant permission to such funds to allow redemptions in the case of urgent financial need, something that is currently restricted because of legislative requirements to treat all investors equally. But the tone of the commentary is that was meant to have been done yesterday.

Of course, if it had been, it would have been “policy on the run” and dire “unintended consequences” would no doubt follow as night follows day in the meaningless 24/7 media cycle. And you’d need to have been reading the Fin Review to know that there are current regulatory and legislative barriers to action. The rest of the press gallery apparently think there are a stack of magic wands lying around in Treasury.

Malcolm Turnbull blew this story out of the water by his admission that he’d bailed out of his own property fund investments - before the bank deposit guarantee supposedly distorted the market. Not so much because of the attack line Wayne Swan used - though there is actually some truth in pointing out that he’s radically inconsistent and supremely opportunistic in his rhetoric on the financial crisis - but because it reinforces the point that you have to have a fair bit of dosh in the first place to be an investor in such funds. Toffee voiced members of the haute bourgeoisie popping up on the news to complain that they won’t be able to afford their contemplated holidays on the Riviera (I kid you not…) haven’t helped much either in popularising the opposition and media’s “struggling retirees with millions of dollars they can’t access because of teh Government!” narrative.

So there should be no great surprise that Kevin Rudd’s been throwing out a bit of a “we feel your pain” lifeline to folks with big credit card debts instead, prompted by Sydney University research finding that one of five workers are struggling to meet personal debt and mortgage repayments. Continue reading ‘The politics of debt and liquidity’

Newspoll: Labor 54-46, Essential Research: Labor 61-39

Published
by
Kim
1 month ago
in Economics, Markets, Media and Polls
. 14 Comments

The headline numbers of today’s polls are above, and there’s more detail at The Poll Bludger.

For mine, what’s more interesting is some of the questions in the Essential Research poll. In particular, it’s interesting to compare the disapproval ratings of Rudd and Turnbull - 22% (down 8%) and 36%. There’s only a 4 point gap between Turnbull’s disapproval and approval numbers, while Rudd has 44%. That suggests to me - when combined with the 60-19 PPM figure and the 72% approval of the government’s actions in combating the global financial crisis - that Kevin Rudd has occupied the sort of territory John Howard used to - as a strong and safe national leader, but without the negatives. Malcolm Turnbull, by contrast, is dangerously close to numbers which suggest a polarising politics as usual carping oppo leader.

In light of what Mark’s been saying about Turnbull’s strategy on economic management, it’s worth asking if it would have been a much better strategy for the opposition to keep a relatively low profile and stick to the statespersonlike pose thing. Point scoring and politicking are the worst look possible for the Libs at the moment. The problem is they just can’t help themselves.

It might take another election defeat for the primadonnas on the Coalition frontbench to realise they shouldn’t be constantly in the public eye declaiming and condemning. It’s the same thing that benefited Rudd last year - the Howard government providing constant alarums and colour and movement just turned people off - Australians aren’t that interested in the political game and just want the government to govern. Kevin Rudd understands that well. The opposition - and their mates in the meejah - are clueless, and won’t get a clue whilever Malcolm’s ego is on the prowl 24/7.

We’re all rooned!

Published
by
Mark
1 month ago
in Economics, Markets, Media and Sociology
. 36 Comments

Malcolm Turnbull, whose peregrinations around themes on economic management I documented earlier, might actually be revealing some method in his madness. Possibly the regular calls for bipartisanship always follow the beatups and ranting and raving over alleged government incompetence. It may be designed to suggest that he’s always willing to assist, and it’s only the partisan refusal of his expertise by the government that is the root of every conceivable problem. On the other hand, I might be reading a lot more into Turnbull’s frenetic pontificating than is justified - simply by reading too much reportage of his endlessly expressed views. Maybe he’s picking up some bad habits from Twitter?

In any event, it’s been interesting to see some more clarity emerging about the issues surrounding various types of investment funds freezing withdrawals - including the fact that there are 190 000 Australians with such investments. Turnbull has certainly been carrying on as if the problem is of much greater dimensions than that. Bernard Keane raises one salient issue in Crikey:

The demand by cash management funds and mortgage trusts that they also get a government guarantee is one of the more shameless try-ons in an era of particularly refined rent-seeking. Why don’t we guarantee all listed companies while we’re at it? It would be heartlessness of titanic proportions to dismiss the concerns of shareholders about their investments.

It’s also becoming clearer that some of these investment vehicles have been in some trouble for quite some time, though it’s worth noting that in most instances, investors still have access to distributions and dividends even if their capital is temporarily not liquid. But it does look as if the “all the fault of the government and that bank guarantee” narrative is - at best - vastly overstated. Meanwhile, as Keane also observes, the News Limited papers are full of heart-tugging stories about hardship which conveniently support the opposition’s “narrative”. Continue reading ‘We’re all rooned!’

Malcolm Turnbull haunted by Paul Keating

Published
by
Mark
1 month, 1 week ago
in Economics, Howardia, Markets and Media
. 28 Comments

As I’ve commented before, it’s always a bit difficult to keep track of Malcolm Turnbull’s economic narrative du jour. At least with Emo Man Brendan Nelson, we could always rely on undiluted populism with not even a minimal pretense at making any sense. Turnbull’s supposedly better than that, but in the lead up to the budget we had accusations that Labor were wimping out by not cutting spending aggressively enough, followed in very short order with claims that the surplus was unnecessarily large. We’re being treated to something comparable now, with the switch apparently flicked randomly between solemn appeals for bipartisanship, insinuations that the fiscal stimulus package is too big, loose language - subsequently repeated - about the global financial crisis being “hyped”, and now I think the beginnings of a “don’t spend the surplus” theme.

Jacques Chester, I suspect, has pinged what’s going on with all this:

It’s a lawyerly way of arguing. Pick an argument, any argument, that might be plausible, and throw it at the judge. You never know, it might stick.

There are certainly some straws blowing in the wind over the past few days, which in the way of these things, either represent columnists in The Australian flying kites for the opposition to grasp, or reciting lines fed to them by the Coalition. Continue reading ‘Malcolm Turnbull haunted by Paul Keating’

The stimulus package and fairness

Published
by
Mark
1 month, 2 weeks ago
in Economics, Howardia, Markets and Poverty
. 61 Comments

Just before last year’s federal election, I read Neal Blewett’s Cabinet Diaries. The book is a good read, but I was also interested in reminding myself - in the dying days of the Howard Era - what a Labor government felt like. One of the things that really jumped out at me was regular discussions around the Cabinet table about assistance for the unemployed, and several of Keating’s measures to stimulate the economy were targeted to people on the dole, among others. Those with longer memories might recall Labor’s opposition to Malcolm Fraser’s “fight inflation first” austerity regime in the late 70s. Mike Steketee has a very good column today which shows just how much things have changed in the era of the deserving poor (and not so poor) and the undeserving poor. He rightly points out that some of the pensioners receiving payments will have substantial assets and incomes of up to $66000, and self-funded retirees with incomes up to $50000 for singles and $80000 for couples will also receive the one off payments. It would be very hard to argue that they are the folks in the community doing it toughest, and as Steketee suggests, there’s no guarantee the money will be spent rather than saved.

What we’re seeing here, I think, is a combination of Kevin Rudd’s very conservative personal values and political calculation.

Continue reading ‘The stimulus package and fairness’

Essential Research Labor 58-42; Interest rates cut by 100 basis points

Published
by
Kim
1 month, 3 weeks ago
in Economics, Markets, Media and Polls
. 10 Comments

As a bit of an update to my post last night, the Essential Research poll is now out, basically showing no change from last time. Possum has more on all the other questions asked. So, we can now be more confident about suggesting that Malcolm Turnbull’s leadership has yet to really shift any of the trends that were evident under Nelson - this also highlights the vast over-inflation of the importance of Preferred PM and Opposition Leader approval ratings in most of the punditariat’s commentary. It will be very interesting to see what the delayed Newspoll says - since this is apparently the only poll the punditariat focus on. Where to now for the famous “media narrative”?

Peter Martin has all the wonky stuff worth reading on the Reserve Bank’s 1% rates cut, which a number of banks and lending institutions have indicated will lead to a .8% cut in their variable mortgage rates. Dennis Atkins, writing at Party Games, thinks that the Reserve has given the Rudd government political breathing space.

No early Newspoll; interest rates to be cut

Published
by
Kim
1 month, 3 weeks ago
in Economics, Markets, Media and Polls
. 17 Comments

I wonder if no Newspoll is bad news for the pollsters and those who own them. This must be the first Monday in living memory (well, since anyone started paying attention to this stuff before last year’s campaign) when there hasn’t been an early release of selected Newspoll numbers. It couldn’t possibly be because the numbers don’t show any leadership bounce for Malcolm Turnbull, could it? [Update: Or could it be because NSW had a public holiday yesterday?] After all, last week’s Morgan face to face poll showed a straight swap of primary vote from the Coalition to Labor - 1.5%, with Labor on 57.5% 2PP. And ACNielsen and Newspoll a fortnight ago showed a very poor bounce by historical standards for the Opposition.

No doubt we’ll find out.

Malcolm Turnbull has been playing a dangerous game on interest rates. Continue reading ‘No early Newspoll; interest rates to be cut’

Governor-General “not especially bright”, columnist claims

Published
by
Kim
2 months ago
in Climate change, Howardia, Law and Media
. 45 Comments

There’s an extraordinary rant from Christopher Pearson in today’s Opposition Organ, beginning with a big spray against Quentin Bryce. Let me just observe that her opinion that the reserve powers can be codified is a respectable one, and that Pearson is committing a significant fallacy when he conflates that opinion with the analytically separate question of the political feasibility of such a change to the Constitution.

The actual occasion for his condescending twaddle seems to be a lamentation about the ideological unsoundness of the Liberal Party leadership:

Until recently, it would have been hard to imagine a candidate with Bryce’s limitations and ideological baggage winning the level of broad acceptance within the conservative wing of the political class necessary for her to function as governor-general. Indeed, since Brendan Nelson, Julie Bishop and Malcolm Turnbull could not be described plausibly as conservatives, it may not be safe to assume that Bryce does enjoy that kind of acceptance. In less than a year, the values for which John Howard, Peter Costello and Alexander Downer provided so formidable a bulwark are no longer taken for granted in the Liberal Party room.

More power to Nick Minchin and Tony Abbott appears to be the suggestion. Yep, they’re electoral gold. Attack Rudd from the hard right, urges Pearson.

Continue reading ‘Governor-General “not especially bright”, columnist claims’