Support for carbon tax rises: Newspoll
Newspoll finds a 6% shift from opposition to support for the carbon price. It’s still disapproved by 53-36, but there’s definitely something going on.
Nielsen 52-48; Newspoll 50-50
The last (I think!) polls we will see this campaign are in. Peter Hartcher on Lateline makes the point that there have been eleven (!) phone polls in ten days, and that all bar Newspoll have had Labor somewhere between [...]
Quick link: Graham Young on polling interpretation for mugs
Following my post yesterday on the dangers of taking internal party polling “leaks” seriously, and the Newspoll and Galaxy figures released last night, Graham Young makes some excellent points on today’s interpretations game: Mugs are what most of my colleagues [...]
Newspoll 50-50; Galaxy Labor 52-48
Is it The Tightening? The latest Newspoll, taken on Tuesday and Wednesday night, with a sample of 1600 voters, shows the two major parties level on 50-50. That’s a 2% swing to the Coalition from the last Newspoll. No details [...]
Newspoll Labor 52-48
Via GhostWhoVotes on Twitter, the Newspoll to be published tomorrow comes in with Labor on 52% and the Coalition on 48% two party preferred. Primaries are Labor 38 (steady), Coalition 41 (-1), Greens 14 (+1). Update: Interestingly, the ALP has [...]
Newspoll’s state by state breakdown; and “sandbagging” Queensland marginals
Newspoll has released the state by state breakdown of its latest poll. Sample sizes, when disaggregated this way, are fairly small, ranging from 445 in SA to 765 in NSW. That translates to a margin of error between 4.6 and [...]
Galaxy: Labor 51-49
Galaxy comes in this morning with the same primaries as Newspoll (38, 42, 13) but a 2PP of 51-49 instead of 52-48. That’s probably due to rounding, as both allocate preferences based on the 2007 election figures. Nielsen also showed [...]
Newspoll: 52-48 to Labor
… reports William Bowe, via GhostWhoVotes on Twitter. This poll was taken after the Kevin10 announcement on Thursday, and the Coalition increasingly embarking on a front-runner’s strategy, reinforced in today’s campaign launch. It’s up from 50-50 last time, and as [...]
Morgan 50-50 and a poll wrap half way through the campaign
Morgan comes in with very similar figures to Newspoll tonight, 50-50 on the 2PP and a 38-45 split on the primaries. William Bowe has more detail. It’s a small sample with a correspondingly high margin of error, but it’s saying [...]
The Coalition’s primary vote recovery and its potential significance
Folks might recall that during Labor’s polling slump in the lead up to the removal of Kevin Rudd, Labor’s primary fell to a level in the 30s (where it sits again now), while the Coalition’s primary vote stubbornly refused to [...]
Possum on Newspoll and the trend; and Libs now acting as front runner
As a bit of an update to my post this morning on Newspoll, I thought I’d link to Possum’s piece this afternoon where he factors today’s numbers into an estimation of the trend: As a result, this brings our Pollytrend [...]
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