Nielsen finds Labor would be 52-48 ahead under Rudd
I’ve got big doubts that polls which are based on counterfactuals have the meaning they’re purported to bear, but something must be going on when Nielsen has Labor’s primary vote at 27% but at 42% if Kevin Rudd were leader. [...]
Nielsen 52-48; Newspoll 50-50
The last (I think!) polls we will see this campaign are in. Peter Hartcher on Lateline makes the point that there have been eleven (!) phone polls in ten days, and that all bar Newspoll have had Labor somewhere between [...]
Nielsen ALP 53-47
Via Ghost Who Votes on Twitter, tomorrow’s Nielsen poll, taken between Tuesday and Thursday has the ALP leading the Coalition 53-47, with the primaries being Labor 40, Coalition 41, and Greens 12. On primaries, Labor is up by 4, the [...]
Galaxy: Labor 51-49
Galaxy comes in this morning with the same primaries as Newspoll (38, 42, 13) but a 2PP of 51-49 instead of 52-48. That’s probably due to rounding, as both allocate preferences based on the 2007 election figures. Nielsen also showed [...]
Nielsen 51-49 to the Coalition
Peter Hartcher has just revealed on Lateline that the Nielsen poll, taken from Wednesday through to today, to be published tomorrow in the Fairfax papers, shows the Coalition leading Labor on the two party preferred 51-49. Last week’s Nielsen was [...]
The Coalition’s primary vote recovery and its potential significance
Folks might recall that during Labor’s polling slump in the lead up to the removal of Kevin Rudd, Labor’s primary fell to a level in the 30s (where it sits again now), while the Coalition’s primary vote stubbornly refused to [...]
Nielsen state by state breakdown on last three polls
At The Age, Tim Colebatch reports on state samples aggregated from the last three Nielsen polls. Nielsen has had Labor at 55-45, 52-48 and 48-52, with the first two being rather old, being taken just after Julia Gillard’s accession and [...]
Nielsen: Coalition leads 52-48
Both Kim and I have made the point in recent days that the polls are narrowing for Labor, and that the election is a real contest. Now, news comes in of the latest Nielsen poll which has the Coalition ahead [...]
The impact of the Labor leadership change according to Nielsen
The image below the fold is courtesy of Possum, who has much much more on today’s Nielsen poll. Please note the margins of error on gender and state by state breakdowns are higher than in the poll itself, and are [...]
Election day three: polls galore
In Crikey today, Richard Farmer asked us to imagine how we would score this election if polls didn’t exist. It’s an interesting thought experiment, though it’s also salient to mention that a lot of what’s set up the terms and [...]
Labor's chances in Queensland: Tell us what's happening on the ground
Two recent events have prompted me to ponder how federal Labor is traveling in Queensland. Yesterday, we saw Flynn MP Chris Trevor make an impassioned defence of Kevin Rudd against what he identified as the factional forces that brought him [...]
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