Who’s actually ahead in the two party preferred vote? (And does it matter?)
The name of the game at the moment in Canberra is the competition between claims to “legitimacy” – a new concept in Australian politics, it would seem, as no one, I think, ever suggested John Howard should not form a [...]
Newspoll’s state by state breakdown; and “sandbagging” Queensland marginals
Newspoll has released the state by state breakdown of its latest poll. Sample sizes, when disaggregated this way, are fairly small, ranging from 445 in SA to 765 in NSW. That translates to a margin of error between 4.6 and [...]
Does asylum seeker policy actually switch votes?
One would assume that the answer has to be ‘yes’, since as Tim Dunlop observes, incidentally arguing against the view that the issue plays to entrenched racism, boat arrivals and “border security” have been elevated by all political parties to [...]
Moving Australia forward?
The Governor-General’s change of travel plans indicate that an election may be called as early as this week, probably for 21 or 28 August. Peter Brent has made an interesting argument that the usual incumbency advantage governments enjoy may be [...]
Assessing Julia Gillard as PM
A couple of pollsters have been very quick to assess public support for Julia Gillard and Labor, after her unprecedented ascension to the Prime Ministership. Possum has all the details of the latest Galaxy and Nielsen polls, both showing a [...]
Links post on the spill and the Gillard ascension
Some interesting articles around the web this morning to highlight: Jeff Sparrow at The Drum asks some searching questions about the personalisation of politics and its relationship with our democratic deficit, while The Poll Bludger and Mumble present contrasting takes [...]
Quick link: Why dumping Rudd would be stupid
While I’m doing the quick links thing, here’s an excellent article in Inside Story by Peter Brent of Mumble on why dumping Kevin Rudd for Julia Gillard would be the easiest way for Labor to lose this year’s federal election.
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