Tag Archive for 'Peter Costello'

Malcolm Turnbull haunted by Paul Keating

Published
by
Mark
1 month, 2 weeks ago
in Economics, Howardia, Markets and Media
. 28 Comments

As I’ve commented before, it’s always a bit difficult to keep track of Malcolm Turnbull’s economic narrative du jour. At least with Emo Man Brendan Nelson, we could always rely on undiluted populism with not even a minimal pretense at making any sense. Turnbull’s supposedly better than that, but in the lead up to the budget we had accusations that Labor were wimping out by not cutting spending aggressively enough, followed in very short order with claims that the surplus was unnecessarily large. We’re being treated to something comparable now, with the switch apparently flicked randomly between solemn appeals for bipartisanship, insinuations that the fiscal stimulus package is too big, loose language - subsequently repeated - about the global financial crisis being “hyped”, and now I think the beginnings of a “don’t spend the surplus” theme.

Jacques Chester, I suspect, has pinged what’s going on with all this:

It’s a lawyerly way of arguing. Pick an argument, any argument, that might be plausible, and throw it at the judge. You never know, it might stick.

There are certainly some straws blowing in the wind over the past few days, which in the way of these things, either represent columnists in The Australian flying kites for the opposition to grasp, or reciting lines fed to them by the Coalition. Continue reading ‘Malcolm Turnbull haunted by Paul Keating’

Confidential sources

Published
by
Kim
1 month, 3 weeks ago
in Education and Media
. 32 Comments

Glenn Milne used to be frequently accused of being a mouthpiece for Peter Costello. Guess who he’s talking to now?

Pyne, one of Turnbull’s key leadership backers, has now been promoted into the frontline education portfolio and it is Julia Gillard, his opposite, whom he now has in his sights. Pyne has finally assumed his rightful position at the epicentre of the Opposition, a role that was bloodymindedly denied him by Howard for two reasons: he was a Liberal progressive and he was a supporter of Peter Costello. It was enough to generate such negative personal energy from Howard that he continually blocked Pyne’s promotion in what turned out to be part of an act of self-destruction.

Pyne is now where he wants to be in the Liberal pantheon and, more critically, where Turnbull wants him to be.

In case you don’t feel like reading the rest of this guff, Christopher Pyne has “lighted onto” a “proposition” - that while Kevin Rudd and his ministers are portrayed as “Howard lite”, they’re actually hiding their socialist lights under a bushel! Exposes such as Christopher’s clever realisation that transparency in private school funding might lead to Class Warfare will be their secret weapon as they go on the front foot…

Memo to Kevin Rudd: these guys think they can win. And they will now do whatever it takes to do so.

Whatever…

The Costa Diaries

Published
by
Kim
1 month, 3 weeks ago
in Books, Writers & Writing, Economics, Media and NSW Government
. 41 Comments

Michael Costa has taken a leaf out of Mark Latham’s book… Forced out of office and Parliament? Write op/eds attacking your former party!

LISTENING to Kevin Rudd at Council of Australian Governments meetings as he tried to connect the global economic situation to the more mundane items on the national reform agenda was often excruciating.

Anybody with a rudimentary understanding of economics would have quickly concluded, as I did, that the Prime Minister didn’t have a good understanding of these issues.

Can a tell all book be far behind? Would it need to be a three volume set to contain slurs on all the people Michael Costa doesn’t like?

Here’s a suggestion for the under-employed former pollie - why not join the Liberal Party? You’ve already got News Limited Columnists eating out of your hand (you actually are one too!)… And your right-wing views should see you fit in nicely. Perhaps with your added ruthlessness, you could spark endless speculation about Malcolm Turnbull’s polling and leadership and unlike the Great Pretender seize the top job by the power of the Word!

The culture wars on tv… live!

Published
by
Kim
2 months ago
in Culture, Media and Politics
. 25 Comments

Tom Switzer, former op/editor of the Government Gazette and the Opposition Organ and subsaquently Nelson staffer is a panelist on tonight’s final instalment of the ABC’s Q&A. Switzer famously proclaimed that the right was now winning the Culture Wars. Let’s see if culture war logic stands up to questioning!

Ps: Media tart Peter Costello is also on, in close proximity to David Marr. Perhaps sales of teh book are disappointing? Can he revive them by starting another round of leadership rumours?

The elephant in the room (or on Wall Street)

Published
by
Kim
2 months, 1 week ago
in China, Foreign policy, Markets, Media and USA
. 17 Comments

In an interview where he displayed to the full his immense self-regard, and incidentally engaged in his now customary tease about his future in politics, Peter Costello was asked by Tony Jones to comment on his warnings during the election campaign last year about financial tsunamis from China. He didn’t exactly address that front on, but he did comment that Asian sovereign wealth funds were providing a force for stability in world financial markets. That’s intriguing, because Ian Welsh at Firedoglake highlights what isn’t being openly discussed in the political reaction to the proposed Paulson bailout of Wall Street, in the context of the Japanese company Namura acquiring a 20% equity stake in Morgan Stanley after Henry Paulson’s announcement:

Investors, and especially foreign investors, want to know that if they buy in again, they’re protected. Since they aren’t going to be allowed to buy up the US’s financial sector for pennies, that means they need to know that prices will be maintained so they aren’t buying pigs-in-a-poke.

Which is also why the Paulson or Dodd bailout is still on the books. Because if the US doesn’t bail out its own financial sector (by borrowing money it doesn’t have) then the only people with enough money are foreign sovereign funds and large investors. And they willbail it out for cents on the dollar at fire sale prices. The end result is that New York would definitively no longer be the world’s financial center. Odds on favourite to be the new one? Dubai. London doesn’t want it (they want to be middlemen). Tokyo can’t quite do it. Shanghai isn’t ready.

But Dubai is raring to go. And that’s one real reason why Congressional leaders and Wall Street CEOs are panicking. If Wall Street isn’t bailed out by Congress, the executives will all be either working for Chinese and Arabs, or they’ll be out on the street, drowning their sorrow in their 50 feet yachts drinking $100,000 dollar bottles of whine. Er, wine.

What the US government is really seeking to do (among other things) is to engage in its own version of state capitalism in order to fend off the accelerating shift of power from America to Asia. And that’s one of the motivations they don’t particularly want to foreground, because the US taxpayer will be footing the bill. Make no mistake, this is just as much about geopolitics as finance.

Continue reading ‘The elephant in the room (or on Wall Street)’

Reaction to Paulson’s $700 billion market bailout plan; Turnbull wants an Oz version

Published
by
Mark
2 months, 2 weeks ago
in Economics and Markets
. 11 Comments

There’s an informative links post at Obsidian Wings from hilzoy. And a bit of food for thought:

I do not want to hear people tell me that regulation cripples the economy, unless they are willing to admit that a lack of regulation can also cripple the economy. Not ever. I don’t understand why anyone is so much as tempted to think that “regulation” is good or bad, as a whole: to me, that’s like being for or against “things” or “people”. Some regulations are good, some are bad; obviously, we want people in government who can tell the difference, and implement regulatory systems that work well. However, altogether too many of my fellow citizens were willing to listen to ideologues, and now we all get to pay for their mistakes.

Very oddly, Malcolm Turnbull has proposed that the federal government in Australia should also bail out Australian banks. Now, unless he’s suggesting that the banks should have their exposure to Lehman Bros. etc. paid for gratis by the Australian government, to the benefit of their share price or something, it’s hard to see how this makes any sense, particularly when Turnbull has been blathering all round the shop about Kevin Rudd and Wayne Swan “talking down” the Australian economy (and thus magicking inflation into existence - it wasn’t at all Peter Costello’s fiscal profligacy, no matter what the IMF may think). One can only infer from this call that there’s an implication that there’s some disaster waiting to happen domestically.

Unless Turnbull is suggesting that the Australian government should compensate the banks for their exposure to Lehman Brothers or whatever, it’s really quite hard to work out what he’s saying here. Obviously, it’s a bit of politicking, tied up in a neat package as it is with his “bipartisanship” theme, and it may also be designed to imply that while the Bush administration has a Plan, Rudd doesn’t. But it’s difficult to read it as anything other than irresponsible, despite the instant anointing of Messiah Mal with the all important “economic credibility” by the media.

Labor’s game plan for Malcolm Turnbull

Published
by
Mark
2 months, 2 weeks ago
in Media and Politics
. 71 Comments

Tony Abbott trotted out the line on Q&A tonight that the ALP is scared of Malcolm Turnbull, hence the attack on him. This meme - which I think originated with the claims that the government were trembling in their collective boots at the spectre of Peter Costello becoming Opposition Leader - is dumb. It was hardly worth going after Brendan Nelson - he did a good enough job on himself. But what politicians do is attack their opponents. It’s hardly rocket science.

So what’s Labor up to? A lot of it has to do with Turnbull’s persona. As Kim observed the other day, Turnbull won’t be anywhere near as well known among the general public as he is among political junkies. When there’s so much attention on him, you get in quick to define his persona. The line has already morphed - from rich dude to out of touch Eastern suburbs silvertail who represents, you know, latte sippers and Sydney Morning Herald readers. Which, after all, he does. “Vaucluse”, “Point Piper”, and “Western suburbs” (by way of contrast) are words carrying huge symbolic weight. It’s a tie in with the “right to drive a Porsche” jibes and will be a better fit with Turnbull than with truckin’ Brendan.

Turnbull’s possibly doing himself no favours by talking about himself so much, a point that a conga line of Ministers have made. It’s the downside of having to define yourself. To the degree that Turnbull does have an image as egotistical and arrogant, he reinforces that by dwelling on his own qualities. And the press does part of the job for the ALP by writing about him in terms of his stellar intellect, heroic qualities, his temper and “inability to tolerate fools”, blah blah. If there’s one image that Australian voters don’t like, it’s of someone with tickets on themselves and a sense of entitlement. Just ask Peter Costello.

Thirdly, while the press may have been suggesting Turbull is some sort of “crazy brave” choice and will provide sparks and excitement, that’s probably a negative. Continue reading ‘Labor’s game plan for Malcolm Turnbull’

Malcolm Turnbull finally ends the Howard years?

Published
by
Kim
2 months, 2 weeks ago
in Climate change, Economics, Howardia, Immigration and Politics
. 111 Comments

One theme that’s come up in commentary on several threads about the Liberal leadership here is that the political suicide of Brendan Nelson has the potential to put the Howard years to bed at last. One other sign of this is how underwhelming and plain boring many of the “revelations” in Yesterday Man’s Memoirs have been - who really cares now about the accumulated ressentiment of a decade and a bit of internal treachery under the Dear Leader? (Howard’s poisonous human legacy, of course, lingers, as last night’s Four Corners demonstrated). Peter Costello is now history, and if he hasn’t acknowledged that, then the man is a greater and more self-serving fool than even most of us suspect. His book launch - presumably televised still today - is a sideshow.

Malcolm Turnbull needs to give up on placating all those who still long for the departed Howard’s firm hand. The Liberal Party needs to eschew stunts and populism and restore its tattered economic credibility (which was actually junked by Howard and Costello themselves - that was obvious enough in last year’s election but now it’s plain as day). It also needs to move with the times and take a responsible position on an ETS and trim its sails to fit the socially liberal winds that have been blowing - unsniffed as they were by the Tony Abbotts and Nick Minchins of the world.

But Turnbull is completely capable of squibbing all this. He may mistake the need to placate the diehard Liberal Right and “defend the legacy” as necessary pragmatism. If he does, he might be safer at the despatch box, but he will be repeating the same mistakes that brought Nelson down. Though without the jam and baked beans.

Turnbull’s selection of a Shadow Cabinet will give us a big clue as to how he’s going to shape the Opposition. Shadow Treasurer and Shadow Climate Change Minister in particular. And make no mistake, he has to shape the Opposition, not try to keep all its factions happy. A very difficult balancing act indeed, because the structural faults in both the party and in its electoral position haven’t been magicked away.

Elsewhere: Some more analysis from Sam Clifford at Public Polity. Update: And more from Pavlov’s Cat.

Blogosphere roundup: More commentary from Possum, Politically homeless, Andrew Bartlett, Corporate Engagement, Musings of an inappropriate woman, Road to Surfdom and Woolly Days.

Another one for the blog roundup: what it feels like for a boi.

Wait, there’s more!: Joanne Jacobs, The Poll Bludger and John Quiggin.

Nelson brings on leadership spill for tomorrow

Published
by
Mark
2 months, 2 weeks ago
in Media and Politics
. 76 Comments

It’s on. Brendan Nelson’s thrown down the gauntlet. The Liberal Party will determine its leadership tomorrow morning after Nelson called on a spill. Perhaps his capital E emo man performance in Parliament today was his audition - or maybe he’d eaten some of those baked beans. At any rate, he’s got one night of that “clear air” that is/was the new cliche/talking point de jour.

You have to wonder if there’s not some level at which this is a bit of subconscious revenge on Peter Costello, whose book launch tomorrow will now surely be “overshadowed”, as the meejah like to say.

Let’s see if the Turnbull boosters’ claims that they already have the numbers are right. Or will Malcolm Turnbull even put his hand up? What happens if he loses? Surely he couldn’t stay on the front bench. Nelson must be dreaming if he thinks this will end the thing. If he marginalises Turnbull to curry favour with the hard right, he’s still got a divided party. If he keeps Turnbull on the front bench, he looks weak. But at least it might kill off the Costellology.

Update: Michael Brissenden reported on the 7 30 Report that Nelson had been more angry than ever seen before (is that possible?) at a party room meeting and had promised to “clean out” his office and the front bench if he wins. He could lose endless commentator Tony Abbott for a start, and the promise regarding the office presumably refers to his habit of going off the reservation and making policy unilaterally - for instance with the $30 a week pension increase. Presumably the implication that Nelson will be clearing out his desk is unintended, but maybe interesting in a Freudian slippy sorta way.

More strange is a reported promise to “toughen up” the line on climate change while simultaneously walking away from the carping opposition to same sex rights in the Senate. This sounds like a typical Nelson left/right straddle to me, but apparently he’s going to show a “different” side to his leadership. More props? No more truck trekking? Who knows?

Turnbull is standing by the way.

More: Possum has posted Nelson’s press release.

Update: Bruce Billson, the Shadow Minister for Communications (who knew?), duly communicated on Lateline tonight. It wasn’t 100% clear, but he seemed to be suggesting that Malcolm Turnbull might remain on the front bench if Nelson wins. Yeah, right, that’d be smart. But it does show that Nelson’s inclusive or something. Oh, and “strong action on climate change without wrecking the economy” may or may not be a different stance from their most recent unintelligible confusion. But communications expert Billson appeared pleased that it was a nifty soundbite. Who thinks that somehow all this isn’t going to be over tomorrow morning?

Decided [by Kim]: It’s Turnbull by 45-41. New open thread here.

Update [by Kim]: I’ve put up a post with some analysis of what Turnbull needs to do here.

Continue reading ‘Nelson brings on leadership spill for tomorrow’

Costello memoirs: Bored now?

Published
by
Kim
2 months, 2 weeks ago
in Books, Writers & Writing, Media and Politics
. 52 Comments

I’ve got a question about the Costello memoirs. Is anyone going to rush down to the bookshop today and hand over $55 of their hard earned for a copy? I mean - courtesy of the neverending promo show - we now know $weetie doesn’t like Janette, Malcolm, Barnaby or Little Johnny, thinks Tony Abbott is two faced, and that he wanted the leadership handed to him on a platter. And that the election loss was all Howard’s fault, or all Jackie Kelly’s fault, which comes to the same thing really, doesn’t it? And of course all this is such a surprise! Is $55 worth the punt that we might find out that The Great Pretender also wants revenge on Bruce Billson or Wilson Tuckey or Peter Lindsay or someone?

Boycott the thing, I say!

Continue reading ‘Costello memoirs: Bored now?’

Peter Costello’s legacy

Published
by
Mark
2 months, 3 weeks ago
in Economics, Howardia, Media and Polls
. 11 Comments

The Fin Review ran today with a cover story on Peter Costello’s legacy - not on the Liberal leadership but as Treasurer. It appears to be an article of faith - based on a questionable analogy about the supposed damage a move away from Paul Keating’s legacy did to Labor in opposition (and one, incidentally, pushed by PJK himself to journos and commentators) - that they have to hug John Howard close to their chest. So Peter Costello is routinely dubbed by Liberals as “Australia’s best Treasurer”.

The IMF didn’t think so. The Fin has obtained leaked Treasury documents prepared for discussions with IMF officials last year. The upshot of the story can be summed up by its tagline - “Peter Costello’s fiscal policy was potentually more damaging than any other period since the Whitlam years”. IMF wonks were deeply concerned about a stimulatory budget and fiscal policy at a time of economic over-heating, and the article by Paul Cleary concludes:

… from 2003 onwards, Costello executed a sustained expansion of fiscal policy during a sustained upswing in the economy. Looking further back, his predecessors had only engaged in such a policy during recessions. The result of this outbreak of bad policy in the last years of the Howard government is likely to be a long period of inflation and weak economic growth, and it may take some considerable time, and pain, to get the balance back in the right order.

Continue reading ‘Peter Costello’s legacy’

So it was all about promoting his book…

Published
by
Mark
2 months, 3 weeks ago
in Politics
. 47 Comments

Hardly surprising, I must say, to read that Peter Costello has dumped on Howard in his book and has also ruled out standing for the Liberal leadership. What a petulant and self-indulgent performance.

What if they held a History War and nobody came?

Published
by
Kim
2 months, 3 weeks ago
in Education, History, Howardia, Media and Politics
. 109 Comments

Now that the Howard gubbermint is ancient history - except in the memoirs of the ghost of Peter Costello who wants you to know that Howard LIED six times and failed to hand him the leadership on a platter (ps. don’t waste your 55 bucks on his stoopid book - it’s been scooped, and that’s about it, except Pete WAS TEH BEST TREASURER EVAH! and could have singlehandedly sorted the international credit crisis) - there’s very little force, I’d have thought, in a claim that “the history wars have been revived”. A claim made by the usual suspects - particularly Dr Kevin Donnelly - that teh Communists have their hands on the history curriculum under a Labor Government. Read all about it here - in Crikey - by Jeff Sparrow - who skewers this nonsense without even raising a sweat, I suspect. As you were. No narrative here. Look away. There’s commies under your bed though.

Continue reading ‘What if they held a History War and nobody came?’

Newspoll: Labor 56-44

Published
by
Kim
2 months, 3 weeks ago
in Polls
. 8 Comments

Via The Poll Bludger, the same old same old from Newspoll. I think what Rod Cameron had to say on Lateline had a lot of merit - voters will give Kevin Rudd at least another year before making a final judgement. In the meantime, the Liberals probably are wasting their and all of our time with their constant shenanigans. Their best bet would be to lie low and stop making themselves the story. They’re unlikely to, of course. Too much a bunch of prima donnas, plotters and media tarts. And now we’ve got this to look forward to:

But you can be sure that from the end of the next week until at least the end of the following week, it will be all-Costello-all-the-time in the Australian media.

Lord save us.

This question from Essential Research (which incidentally has Labor sitting on a 59/41 2PP split) is a hypothetical, but it’s still an interesting result:

Kevin Rudd is preferred to Peter Costello head-to-head 53 per cent to 27 per cent.

Elsewhere: Possum shows why the Costello dithering is doing a lot of damage to the Libs.

Bursting the Costello balloon

Published
by
Kim
3 months ago
in Media and Politics
. 23 Comments

In the wake of the punditariat’s latest game of deconstructing each parliamentary interjection by The Great Pretender and wistfully wishing his incoherent comedy lines on the public, it’s worth taking a step back and asking whether - even if you think Peter Costello’s schtick is remotely worthwhile - it matters.

Andrew Bartlett points out:

I remain to be convinced that being the best performer at ‘throwing the switch to vaudeville’ does much on its own to attract public support.

Kevin Rudd didn’t defeat John Howard because he had a lot of witty putdowns in parliament. Nor did John Howard win against Paul Keating in 1996 for this reason. Indeed, one could argue that this fixation with Keating’s apparently unchallenged ability to dominate the arena during Question Time was a key reason why so many commentators argued he still had a chance of winning in 1996, well after the electorate had already decided they’d had enough.

Exactly.

Continue reading ‘Bursting the Costello balloon’