Tag Archive for 'Peter Martin'

The Henry Review

Published
by
Mark
1 month, 4 weeks ago
in Government, Policy and Politics
. 36 Comments

A summary of Ken Henry’s tax review can be read at Peter Martin’s blog.

The report’s emphasis changed a fair deal along the way, a topic treated of by Martin in another post.

If you’ve been wondering why Kevin Rudd’s focus has recently been on the country a few decades hence, Henry provides the answers. The report frames its recommendations around the theme of an ageing and growing population. When the government responds, we’re likely to see further development of a point of contrast they want to hammer home in an election year; the claim that Rudd Labor has long term plans for Australia’s future while the Opposition plays base politics around the headline of the day. Much will also be made of proposals to raise more revenue from resources, something a nationalist and populist Coalition will have trouble countering, if they’re inclined to do so.

Make of that what you will.

D-Day for the Liberals? (And the government’s CPRS giveaway)

Published
by
Mark
3 months, 3 weeks ago
in Climate change, Disasters, Howardia, Media, Policy and Politics
. 99 Comments

The Coalition are continuing their marathon climate change/leadership party room meeting after question time today. Clearly, agreement couldn’t be reached within the scheduled four hours. That’s significant in itself.

In developments so far, Andrew Robb has jumped ship, reports Bernard Keane at The Stump.

The government has made its offer on the Coalition amendments. Peter Martin has the text of Rudd’s press release. Writing in New Matilda, Ben Eltham characterises the deal thus:

Billions more taxpayer dollars will be sacrificed on the altar of making the emissions trading scheme palatable for big polluters.

It’s impossible to see this ‘bipartisan’ deal as anything other than a huge transfer from the household sector to the polluters, and one which, at least in the short term, will do nothing much to reduce emissions. The argument in favour is that it should be supported to lock in business and parts of the Coalition, in the hope that it can be improved over time. The argument against ‘pass now, improve later’ is put by Senator Christine Milne at GreensBlog.

In today’s Crikey, Bernard Keane described the CPRS as the worst ever policy process this country has seen. It’s a textbook example, as well, of how politics can completely derail the ostensible intent of a piece of legislation, except insofar as it continues to provide the government with a talking point or two on the actual issue (and that’s not much of an exception!)… So all eyes in the commentariat will now doubt be on the implications for the Liberal leadership. Ludicrous outcomes such as a Kevin Andrews ascension are probably outside the realms of likelihood, but then who knows with this mob?

The issue has certainly crystallised almost all the ructions within the Liberals and between the Nats and moderate Liberals. Continued resentment of defeat, the counter-productive relationship with the media, the tendency to tear down any leader who won’t play the right wing game in all its purity and nuttiness, self-delusion about electoral politics. It’s all there. And none of it is remotely rational in a political sense, or any other.

More to come later…

UPDATE [Ben Eltham]: Sky News is reporting that Wilson Tuckey has moved a leadership spill motion …

Update [Mark]: Tuckey’s leadership spill suggestion failed. Perhaps he shouldn’t rely on The Australian for an assessment of numbers within the Liberal party room.

Update [Mark]: The farce continues, as Coalition members get angsty over whether the meeting should adjourn for a dinner break.

Update [Mark]: I suspect what’s going on now is they’re trying to work out what spin to put on an outcome which is completely chaotic, because both sides disagree as to what happened. If Turnbull, as leader, says that the meeting has decided to accept the deal, it seems to me that all they can do if they don’t agree is to take up Kevin Andrews’ kind offer and make him leader. Or Andrew Robb. Or Tony Abbott or someone. But all the blather about legitimacy surely is just hot air, unless they’re prepared to actually dispense with Turnbull.

Update: Turnbull is giving a press conference, pointing to his strong leadership, and claiming that he’s saved jobs. The Twitter buzz might be as good as place as any to follow what’s going on.

Update: SBS makes about as much sense as anyone could out of the result of the meeting.

Update: What Turnbull should do now.

Spend! Spend! Spend!

Published
by
Kim
11 months, 3 weeks ago
in Economics and Media
. 47 Comments

The telly news led with rhetoric suggesting the February retail figures showed that spending “dried up” after the December stimulus, and the opposition chimed in with their claim that “the money was saved” (which apparently is terrible, even though it frees up more money for spending…) But… Peter Martin links to analysis which contradicts the narrative of the day:

The ABS stopped calculating the trend (the dark line) in November because “it is not possible to determine the trend in retail turnover through the period affected by the Federal Government Economic Security Strategy Package and other influences associated with global economic conditions”.

But it is absolutely clear where retail was going. The December stimulus payments broke the trend and continue to do so.

Even with the 2 per cent fall in seasonally adjusted spending in February we are still spending far more in the shops than we would have without the payments.

Gerry Harvey as leading indicator?

Published
by
Mark
1 year, 1 month ago
in Consumerism, Economics, Film, TV, Video etc and Markets
. 88 Comments

Anyone who’s worked in a large public sector organisation will know how “efficiency dividends” work. Or don’t work. Or work in unintended ways – by destroying the capacity to do what your actual main purpose is. There’s a bit of a parable about managerialism there, I suspect. But certainly one of the most egregious of the effects of the efficiency dividends of Lindsay Tanner’s first round of cross-cutting was reducing the sample size of the ABS’ labour market statistics. Not such a smart move at this stage of the game, I’d suggest. But presumably not having Peter Costello raving about Labor deficits trumps informed policy making.

This sort of thing only compounds the fog of economic war at a time of crisis. It is true that economic predictions are a dime a dozen and at best indicative the further they’re projected forward in time. Media savvy ex-Treasury boffins in Access Economics were warning of runaway inflation this time last year. This year, they’re worried that we’re “buggered”. (And they’ve always got some neato right wing policy prescription to go with the diagnosis.)

But at a time when the tectonic plates of the economy are shifting rapidly, it is essential to have access to good data. Nobody seems willing to credit Treasury modelling anymore, so with Rudd’s pre-Christmas stimulus package, we were treated to prediction by anecdote. And, all of a sudden, Gerry Norman, retailer Harvey Norman’s boss, was some sort of folk wisdom personified.

Continue reading ‘Gerry Harvey as leading indicator?’

More Christmas presents from the Reserve Bank

Published
by
Robert Merkel
1 year, 4 months ago
in Economics
. 21 Comments

Peter Martin predicts that the Reserve Bank will cut interest rates again by at least 0.75%, and possibly 1%, when it meets on December 2.

If you take the pessimistic view, you might argue that the Bank is scared out of its wits by the possibility of a severe recession. If you’re a bit more of an optimist, you could equally take the view that the bank is prepared to do whatever it takes to avoid one. The RBA has already cut official interest rates by 2% since September; a 0.75% cut would take us back to the lowest level since September 2001. According to Martin’s article, the markets are predicting a cash rate of 3.5% by the middle of May, “which would be the lowest level since the 1950s.”

Continue reading ‘More Christmas presents from the Reserve Bank’

The good, the Maverick and the ugly: dispatches from the Straight Talk Express

Published
by
Kim
1 year, 5 months ago
in Activism, Culture, Film, TV, Video etc, Foreign Elections, Nationalism, Race and USA
. 70 Comments

With less than a month to go til America votes, barring any more mad game changing moves or even an October Surprise from Osama Bin Laden or the tattered remains of the Bush administration, all the smart money is on the financial crisis seeing Barack Obama translate the momentum he’s built up into a pretty impressive victory in the Electoral College. What does the GOP have left? It’s surely significant that there are rumours around that the GOP itself – the Republican National Committee – is thinking of pulling funding from McCain advertising and pushing it into Senate races to attempt to forefend a 60 vote filibuster proof Democratic Senate majority (the Senators defending seats this year are those first elected in the Bush first term post s11 surge of the 2002 mid terms). So how about the old white dude himself? There’s one more debate. There may be more lunacy. But there’s certainly lots of ugliness, as the Culture Warriors of the base show their ugly face.

[Via Majikthise, but it's just about everywhere on the web - it's so viral it might just be this cycle's Macaca moment.]

Continue reading ‘The good, the Maverick and the ugly: dispatches from the Straight Talk Express’