Tag Archive for 'poll'

Do the polls support the political narrative? Or; how to build a commentariat-bot

I’ve previously highlighted Dennis Shanahan and Malcolm Colless as barometers of the new new political narrative (‘Rudd in trouble! Gloss comes off! Action Man Tony Off To Vigorous Start!’). Michelle Grattan provided another twist on the mechanics of constructing such a story on the weekend.

Rudd’s political style, whether his prolixity or his obsession for control, was always destined to be viewed more harshly when the politics became tougher.

Eventually it might work, but it’s not so far, because Abbott, blemished as he might be, is seen as ”authentic”, just as people are starting to ask ”will the real Kevin stand up?”…

But the dynamics have changed, the government is worried and the public, for the moment, seem to be hoping the underdog makes it a contest.

There’s lots, lots, more, and in fact the whole piece is something of a mind dump rather than a considered analysis. But what’s worth highlighting is the elision between “the public” (referenced anecdotally), the polls (alluded to) and “people”. The story is largely written in the passive voice beloved of such authoritative pronouncements – stuff just happens, and it’s unclear who thinks that it has, and who has been doing the doing. Who is doing the viewing of Rudd in the para I’ve excerpted? What is this destiny?

What it really adds up to is a picture of the commentariat-bot at work.

Not everyone is as artless as Alexander Downer, claiming to detect a sea-change in public opinion on the basis of random airport encounters, quickly morphed into “people think”, and “people say”, but the underlying illogic is the same. Public opinion has changed because the commentariat says it has. The absence of much hard data, or even reference to such data as exists, only serves to highlight the constructedness of the narrative.

For a corrective, one might try Possum.

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Good for two Coalition election losses?

The ACTU has released polling which finds that 53% of respondents believe that Tony Abbott would reintroduce WorkChoices under another name.

Abbott’s been addressing some business functions of late, no doubt because he has to build some bridges and mend some fences on economic issues, and raise some campaign dosh. It’s had nowhere near as prominent a part in reporting as his remarks on virginity and ironing, but I did notice that he’d been preaching the virtues of “flexibility” in industrial relations. No detail, but it’s not hard to deconstruct the message he’s sending.

Update: Via Andrew Reynolds in comments, a link to the poll.

Update: Abbott wants to scrap penalty rates and bring back statutory individual employment agreements.

Newspoll: Coalition wipeout in cities if they go down denialist road

[Via Labor Outsider in comments] The Australian is reporting that an analysis of Newspoll data collected in September suggests that 63% of urban Coalition voters want the government’s CPRS passed, with only 28% against, and that the Liberals could lose 20 metropolitan seats.

I’d like to see what folks like Possum make of the claims about potential vote switching, and of the changed context from when the poll was taken, but this should nevertheless certainly concentrate Liberal minds as they contemplate whether or not to dump Malcolm Turnbull, and also put all the guff this week about the “Liberal base” in perspective. If there’s any truth to that, and it wasn’t *just* a campaign orchestrated by the likes of Bolta and the Parrot, the Liberal party membership is very seriously out of touch with an awful lot of Liberal voters.

Could this be the game changer Turnbull has been waiting for?

Update: SBS news is reporting that Malcolm Turnbull, at his Sydney press conference this morning, has asserted he has Joe Hockey’s support.

Elsewhere: Ken Parish on constitutional issues and the prospects of a double dissolution, and Trevor Cook asks if the Liberal Party can survive.

Update: Turnbull’s latest press conference via SBS News. He’s confident he will remain leader, and urges passage of the CPRS.

Update: Turnbull surrogate Senator Gary Humphreys says that Liberal internal polling replicates the newspoll story; a wipeout if they go all climate change denially.

Update: New post on the latest thrills and spills.

Emissions Trading Green Paper thread (& links post)

Climate Change Minister Penny Wong will be releasing the government’s Emissions Trading Green Paper today at the National Press Club. The Minister’s address can be seen on ABC1 at 12.30pm. The Green Paper will fill in some of the blanks left remaining after the release of the Garnaut Review’s interim report last week. No doubt it will also set the tone for the developing political debate over the next few months, and a key to how that debate will proceed politically is a poll by Essential Media [link to pdf] which suggests that the Coalition’s “wait for the world” message (if indeed that is their message!) is the wrong one.

As to the substance of the Green Paper, Crikey has set out a number of benchmarks by which the policy could be evaluated. These, of course, are open to debate, and indeed it’s worth recalling that the whole purpose of a Green Paper is to stimulate debate and consultation while signalling the parameters in which the government wants to shape policy.

No doubt there will be substantive contributions here and throughout the blogosphere and the media later on today (and links in the thread are most welcome), but you’re also most welcome to start discussing the Green Paper right now!

Relevant links over the fold.

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