Newspoll: Labor 55-45

Mark Bahnisch — Mon, 13 Oct 2008 13:07:03 +0000

After a break last Monday for the NSW long weekend, Newspoll is out with a steady 2PP lead for Labor and a jump in Kevin Rudd’s overall standing. Apparently the Preferred Prime Minister measure, which was so crucial in talking down Brendan Nelson’s leadership, is no longer important. At any rate it’s not been reported in the early story in The Australian, which talks up Malcolm Turnbull’s approval rating. It might be more to the point to note that Turnbull has had a negligible leadership effect by any historical measure on the Opposition’s voting intention numbers.

Elsewhere: The Poll Bludger.

Update: Possum. OzPolitics notes the large jump in The Greens’ primary vote.

B… b… bounce?

Kim — Thu, 18 Sep 2008 05:40:52 +0000

Oks, there’s got to be some way to work this into a drinking game. Just to prove that political tragics are rooly cool like the kidz on West Wing and not strange nerds really.

Possum has enabled a feature on his blog where you can guess the size of any Newspoll bounce that might occur now that Malcolm Turnbull is Oppo Leader. Wisdom of crowds and all that. No mention of any prizes (hint! hint!*) – at least you can make a buck from the betting markets…

So saying, the average Coalition bounce from a leadership change was 5.7% on the primary and 6% on the TPP. This compares to Labor’s average leadership change bounce of 3.6% on the primary and 1.7% on the TPP. The total average leadership change bounce was 4.6% on the primary and 3.8% on the TPP across the 6 historical examples we have available.

And I’ve got my own idea for a bit of crowd sourced political commentary. Let’s pretend we’re the press gallery and set a % which, if not met, will be decried as a setback, or completely unrelated and probably because of the current position of the moon in the lunar cycle, depending on what mood Dennis Shanahan et al are in. And then we can set a % sufficient to ensure the production of headlines like “Australian politics has fundamentally changed”, “the honeymoon is now over”, “Turnbull reinvigorates Coalition” etc, etc.

Be your own press gallery. Write your own political narrative.

Ps: If Turnbull can’t get 5% on the 2PP, he’s toast. Peter Costello is willing to be drafted.

*Update: Now there’s a prize!

Larvatus Prodeo » polling analysis

Newspoll: Labor 55-45

B… b… bounce?