The logic of Labor (and Liberal) leadership
In a post entitled “After Gillard”, John Quiggin writes: I think the return of Rudd would put the spotlight on Abbott’s total fraudulence, maybe even paving the way for the Rudd vs Turnbull election we should have had last time. [...]
Breaking the stalemate on asylum seekers and refugees: How?
The CPD suggests a return to evidence-based policy on asylum seekers. The question is: how do we get there?
Support for carbon tax rises: Newspoll
Newspoll finds a 6% shift from opposition to support for the carbon price. It’s still disapproved by 53-36, but there’s definitely something going on.
Malcolm Turnbull and reframing the Climate Change debate
Malcolm Turnbull’s speech on climate change science points the way to a better framing of the climate change and carbon price debates than we’ve seen from the Labor party.
A note on stability [Hung Parliament]
As we get closer to decision time, I’ve been reflecting on the idea of “stability” that seems key to the rural Independents’ choice or choices. I watched last week’s Q&A on repeat – I turned it off last Monday when [...]
Polls, polls, polls and the campaign for another election!
This morning’s papers are full of more petulance about the lack of an election result, and about polls. The poll being talked about was trumpeted by News Limited, but curiously didn’t emanate from either Newspoll or Galaxy – pollsters of [...]
How did the pundits (and we) get it so wrong?
Mindy suggested a thread on how the outcome of the election differed so much from most predictions. So here it is! I think only one pundit in the MSM predicted a clear Coalition victory – David Penberthy of The Punch. [...]
Nielsen 52-48; Newspoll 50-50
The last (I think!) polls we will see this campaign are in. Peter Hartcher on Lateline makes the point that there have been eleven (!) phone polls in ten days, and that all bar Newspoll have had Labor somewhere between [...]
Your poll-free guide to the state of the seats in Queensland
Published in today’s Crikey email: We’re drowning in polls at the moment, and rumours of polls. I’ve been writing in recent days about the futility of over-interpreting polls, and it’s also been suggested that the key to divining this election [...]
Newspoll 50-50; Galaxy Labor 52-48
Is it The Tightening? The latest Newspoll, taken on Tuesday and Wednesday night, with a sample of 1600 voters, shows the two major parties level on 50-50. That’s a 2% swing to the Coalition from the last Newspoll. No details [...]
More entrail gazing: “party polling shows…”
I wrote yesterday about the futility of trying to make direct extrapolations from a multitude of polls to the election result. Today, we’ve seen one of the other standard tropes of campaigning – the claim that “leaked party polling shows…” [...]
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