Quick Link – Possum on HIP and Fire Risk
The Liberals have put much at stake painting the Home Insulation Program as an unmitigated disaster. However Possum has conducted a rigorous analysis of fire rates, controlling for a number of issues. The bottom line is that, “the data strongly [...]
Possum needs a job!
If anyone wants to employ “one economist possum, slightly used, occasionally abused, good with numbers and other stuff. Intermittently snarky but always well humoured”, please see Possum’s post at Pollytics. I’d be very sad to see Possum become a less [...]
Possum on Newspoll and the trend; and Libs now acting as front runner
As a bit of an update to my post this morning on Newspoll, I thought I’d link to Possum’s piece this afternoon where he factors today’s numbers into an estimation of the trend: As a result, this brings our Pollytrend [...]
Galaxy 50-50, Morgan 53-47
Two polls are out today, both taken on Wednesday night. Galaxy and Morgan both show the race narrowing, with Labor losing 2% on the two party preferred and 2.5% respectively. Details are at Possum’s place. There’s also an earlier Morgan, [...]
The impact of the Labor leadership change according to Nielsen
The image below the fold is courtesy of Possum, who has much much more on today’s Nielsen poll. Please note the margins of error on gender and state by state breakdowns are higher than in the poll itself, and are [...]
Quick link: Possum on the aggregate poll trend
If you’re still wondering what all the plethora of polls released in the last few days mean, you need to read Possum’s latest update on his Pollytrend: What we’ve seen over the last 20 days is the ALP vote continuing [...]
Galaxy: Labor 52-48, but a pox on both your houses
Possum reports on the first poll released during the election campaign – Galaxy, which comes in with essentially the same numbers as last time, bar a drop in The Greens’ primary vote to 13%, with the one point lost going [...]
Rudd's chances, the Gillard bounce and the blogosphere conversation
As an update to my link post yesterday, I thought it worthwhile drawing folks’ attention to Possum’s latest installment of pseph-y goodness. Of interest, aside from quantifying the increase in Labor’s primary vote under Gillard, is the fact that he’s [...]
Quick link: Possum refutes Shanahan on Rudd's last polls
In a very comprehensive and statistically rich post, Possum has refuted Dennis Shanahan’s contention about the interpretation of polls in Kevin Rudd’s last months as Prime Minister. Graham Young has also had a look at the Quarterly Newspoll data: The [...]
Assessing Julia Gillard as PM
A couple of pollsters have been very quick to assess public support for Julia Gillard and Labor, after her unprecedented ascension to the Prime Ministership. Possum has all the details of the latest Galaxy and Nielsen polls, both showing a [...]
Marginal seat polling and the Rudd government's position
Paul Norton observed here at LP yesterday that we’re in uncharted psephological waters, with both major parties on low primaries and both leaders relatively unpopular. A host of questions have therefore arisen: about the likely flow of preferences from The [...]
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