Well a dry run can take a number of forms. One approach is just to require reporting without a carbon price. Another might be to set a fixed price. So there’s a variety of things that could be put in place. We would still say we have to have a definite transition set in place so that after that dry run we move into a freer market regime where we ratchet up the targets. Hopefully by then we’ll know what the rest of the world’s going to do.

Heather, it’s called NGER. The legislation passed in 2007. Any business who hasn’t already prepared for various carbon prices by now really doesn’t deserve to survive. A few cent movements in the Aussie Dollar dwarf the impact of a carbon price for most industries, yet strangely we don’t see the AIG calling for an unfloating of the currency.

Meanwhile in Poznan, Australia is doing its darndest to shift the goalposts on any effective global agreement taking shape by pushing for various landuse and forestry activities to allow us to keep digging up, shipping and burning coal into eternity. Anna Rose, Erwin Jackson and John Hepburn have details. The AYCC also notes that this comes at the expensive of the ratification of Labour’s promise to ratify the UN Declaration on the Rights of Indigenous Peoples.

So what will happen at Poznan?

Perhaps not much. Countries will be unwilling to commit to anything until they have seen how the new US administration are likely to act on climate. Insiders say that means little genuine progress on agreeing new carbon cuts can be expected until the middle of next year.

Even given that, however, the behaviour of the Australian government in the lead-up to the conference has been worrying.

As this ABC News article states:

The Federal Government has gone back on its plan to present a 2020 emissions reduction target to UN climate talks in Poland later this month.

Climate Change Minister Penny Wong will lead an Australian delegation to the talks in the Polish city of Poznan next week to begin work on a new global climate deal.

Senator Wong previously said the Government intended to announce a mid-term target before the negotiations.

Of course, getting a read on what’s actually going on in international negotiations is like trying to read ground tea leaves. But it’s not exactly the act of a government that’s getting ready to announce serious carbon reduction targets loudly and proudly to the world. The Greens have given the government a serve on this. It doesn’t seem the kind of strategy you’d expect from people really trying to get a good deal: as Peter Wood noted in this earlier thread, pre-commitments to strong reductions, not sitting there with our poker face on, is probably the best way to encourage other countries to come on board and overcome what Garnaut so accurately described as a diabolical policy problem.

The crunch time is coming; we’ll soon get to see whether the government really is serious about doing anything on the issue. Let’s cross our fingers – and, if you’re feeling inclined, contact some Labor MPs and remind them that one of the major things that got them elected was promising to act on climate change.