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By Kim on February 9, 2009
Newspoll’s out early today. Obviously the journos couldn’t wait to see how Malcolm Turnbull’s gambit of rejecting the stimulus package went. It may well be, as I suggested last night, that he had some similar private polling or a tip [...]
Posted in Polls | Tagged Activism, ALP, andrew bolt, Coalition, Dennis Shanahan, facebook, facebook group, Labor, Liberal Party, Malcolm Turnbull, Newspoll, Polls, psephological analysis, Rudd government, stimulus package |
By Mark Bahnisch on January 20, 2009
Late last year, I observed that the final Newspoll of the year was “probably an outlier” (Labor’s 2PP lead was 59-41). I also observed that the pundits and the more excitable members of the political class would nevertheless take it [...]
Posted in Economics, Media, Polls | Tagged ALP, Barnaby Joyce, best PM, economy, Essential Research, John Howard, Kevin Rudd, Labor, leadership, liberal leadership, Malcolm Turnbull, Newspoll, political science, Poll Bludger, Polls, press gallery, psephological analysis, punditariat, recession, Rudd government, voting intention |
By Mark Bahnisch on January 6, 2009
The former Dear Leader has received his reward – something a little more prestigious than the weirdly named awards from obscure right wing think tanks he spent some time trotting over to America last year to collect. John Howard will [...]
Posted in Howardia, Media, Polls | Tagged ALP, first term, George W. Bush, howard government, John Howard, Kevin Rudd, Labor, medal of freedom, Media, polling, possum, psephological analysis, Rudd government |
By Mark Bahnisch on December 19, 2008
As a bit of a postscript to my last post on the latest Queensland Newspoll, The Poll Bludger advises that Antony Green’s analysis of the redistributed state electoral boundaries has been published as a paper by the Queensland Parliamentary Library. [...]
Posted in Media, Polls, Queensland, State/Territory Elections | Tagged ALP, Anna Bligh, Antony Green, electoral boundaries, electorates, LNP, polling, psephological analysis, Queensland election 2006, Queensland election 2009, Queensland Labor, Queensland parliamentary library, Queensland politics, redistribution, The Australian |
By Mark Bahnisch on December 19, 2008
I’ve said before that I don’t put too much stock in the quarterly state Newspolls, because they’re taken at such a lengthy interval it’s hard to get a sense of when any movement shown has actually occurred, and it’s more [...]
Posted in Media, Polls, Queensland, State/Territory Elections | Tagged ALP, Anna Bligh, early election, Lawrence Springborg, LNP, Mark McArdle, Nationals, Newspoll, psephological analysis, Queensland election 2009, Queensland politics, state labor, The Australian, The Borg |
By Mark Bahnisch on December 8, 2008
… and Malcolm Turnbull is approaching Brendan Nelson territory with the PPM at 66-19 in Kevin Rudd’s favour. Of course, political scientists know leadership isn’t that big a factor (and Turnbull’s inability to patch over the same divisions that plagued [...]
Posted in Media, Polls | Tagged ALP, brendan nelson, Kevin Rudd, Labor, leadership, liberal leadership, political science, Polls, press gallery, psephological analysis, punditariat, Rudd government, voting intention |
By Mark Bahnisch on November 6, 2008
The big note of caution should be that this data is drawn from exit polls which don’t take into account the very large early vote, and that exit polls have certain problems of validity and reliability. However, there’s some interesting [...]
Posted in Culture, Foreign Elections, Polls, Race, Religion, Sociology, USA | Tagged African-American vote, barack obama, Culture Wars, Democrats, demographics, electoral college, electoral map, exit polls, GOP, partisan realignment, political sociology, psephological analysis, psephology, realignment, regional vote, Republicans, turnout, US election 2008, USA Election 2008, vote composition, youth vote |
By Kim on October 22, 2008
When I first discovered FiveThirtyEight.Com (courtesy of Down and Out of Sài Gòn on one of the American election threads here at LP, if I recall correctly), I thought of Nate Silver as America’s Possum. Coincidentally, there’s a profile of [...]
Posted in Blogging, Elections, Federal Elections, Foreign Elections, Politics, Polls, Sociology, Technology, The Web, USA | Tagged Blogging, chris nash, Federal election 2007, nate silver, political blogging, possum, Possum Comitatus, psephological analysis, psephological blogging, psephology, US election 2008, USA Election 2008 |
By Mark Bahnisch on October 20, 2008
William Bowe, aka The Poll Bludger, has an interesting take on the pro-Greens trend apparently evident in recent elections, about which there’s been a bit of talk around the traps. It’s been most evident in the ACT election on the [...]
Posted in By-elections, Federal Elections, Media, NSW Government, Polls, Sociology, State/Territory Elections | Tagged ACT election, ALP, electoral behaviour, Labor, NSW by-elections, partisan allegiance, political behaviour, political sociology, psephological analysis, Sociology, The Greens, voting intention |
By Kim on October 7, 2008
As a bit of an update to my post last night, the Essential Research poll is now out, basically showing no change from last time. Possum has more on all the other questions asked. So, we can now be more [...]
Posted in Economics, Markets, Media, Polls | Tagged ALP, cash rate, Coalition, economic crisis, financial markets, interest rate cut, interest rates, Kevin Rudd, Labor, liberal leadership, Liberal Party, Malcolm Turnbull, Newspoll, Polls, psephological analysis, Reserve Banks, Rudd government, Wall Street |
By Kim on October 7, 2008
I wonder if no Newspoll is bad news for the pollsters and those who own them. This must be the first Monday in living memory (well, since anyone started paying attention to this stuff before last year’s campaign) when there [...]
Posted in Economics, Markets, Media, Polls | Tagged ALP, cash rate, Coalition, economic crisis, financial markets, interest rate cut, interest rates, Kevin Rudd, Labor, liberal leadership, Liberal Party, Malcolm Turnbull, Newspoll, Polls, psephological analysis, reserve bank, Rudd government, Wall Street |
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