Tag Archive for 'sarah palin'

Palin’s primary path

Published
by
Mark
1 month, 1 week ago
in Foreign Elections and USA
. 38 Comments

If you like stats and maps, you should have a look at Nate Silver’s post on Sarah Palin’s chances in the primaries in 2012.

Silver doesn’t mention this explicitly, but what jumps out at me is the sheer irrationality of the primary process – so much depends on the order in which states vote and the nature of the vote (ie closed or open primary, caucus). Then there’s the unrepresentativeness of some of the states which are most important in the primaries by size and demographics, not to mention the fact that primaries tend to privilege an electorate which is closer to the ideological extreme than those voters who will actually decide the general election. All of that applies to the Democrats too, of course, but it’s unlikely they’ll have competitive Presidential primaries in 2012.

US election: links post

Published
by
Kim
1 year, 4 months ago
in Blogging, Foreign Elections, Polls, Religion, Sociology and USA
. 25 Comments

Excitement, or maybe nerves, is building:

I’ll admit it. I just can’t concentrate. How many times can I check 538, pollster, or real clear politics? Hundreds of times a day. I arrived at my office at 8AM with the best of intensions. It’s 10:50. I can’t get anything done. I don’t have any high hopes for tomorrow’s productivity either. Who else is an anxious wreck? Anyone calm?

Martin Kettle looks at why Democrats are stuck in the subjunctive:

What is really happening, I think, is that Obama is going to win, and the Democrats are going to do spectacularly well in the Senate and House races too. But the mood here is like a cup final where your team is ahead with a few minutes to go. Those last few minutes seem to take forever. So near and yet so far. You overreact to every little event on the pitch as the time drags on. You scream manically at the referee to blow the whistle. Right now, Democrats are in that position. They just want it to be over now. But deep down, they don’t really think that they will throw this one away. They just want the whistle to blow so they can cast off the subjunctive and start celebrating.

The last great white hope (sorry!) for McCain may be the Bradley effect, but Thomas Noyes thinks it’s non-existent, while Stephen Guess discusses the terminological inexactitude surrounding the “socialist” charge, and its ideological implications.

Looking beyond election day, Gary Sauer-Thompson thinks the Republicans will be reduced to a Southern and Western rump. In this context, it’ll be interesting to see if Connecticut Republican Christopher Shays loses his seat. Shays is the last GOP House member left in New England, and the only survivor from the wipeout of what remained of the once influential liberal and moderate Republicans of the North-East after the 2006 election. But the South is changing too, and Sasha Abramsky examines how the GOP’s lock on the region could be broken tomorrow. Firedoglake assesses the prospects for a Senate super-majority in the South, which is the battleground for some of the last close seats to take the Democrats close to a filibuster proof majority of 60. That majority would include Joe Lieberman, though he’s not flavour of the month among the Senate Dems (or anyone else bar John McCain, probably).

And if Sarah Palin wants to be the GOP’s standard bearer after a McCain defeat, it might be worth having a squizzy at her bizarre religious affiliations and why she’s just outed herself as a Klingon. One thing is for sure – the Republicans and the noise machine won’t take defeat lying down.

Related post: What to watch and what to expect.

Update: Some interesting links from Xeni at Boing Boing, including an election FAQ.

James Ridgeway at Comment is Free looks at the structural barriers to change Obama will face (including those within the Democratic party).

Update: An interesting post from Jon Perr on the “character war” waged against Democrats.

Those shifty Ayrab eyebrows

Published
by
Kim
1 year, 4 months ago
in Film, TV, Video etc, Foreign Elections, Levity, Race and USA
. 5 Comments

Not the Sarah Palin campaign… or???

Palin forever?

Published
by
Kim
1 year, 4 months ago
in Foreign Elections and USA
. 58 Comments

I’m not sure what it is about the dynamic of this campaign, but I haven’t turned my mind to what will happen to the GOP if the McCain/Palin ticket loses. I’m not sure all that many others have either, outside the backwoods of the right wing blogosphere where a lot have written off McCain and are feverishly discussing the 2012 ticket. There’s certainly been a fair bit of speculation around about the Dems’ future if Obama/Biden lose, and maybe all this is a reflection of the residue of the well known Democratic habit of snatching defeat from the jaws of victory, or a fear that while the uber negative campaigning so far doesn’t appear to have got much traction, that might just shift as we come closer to the election itself (which could also be why there’s been so much focus on Obama’s present level of support being “locked in” through early voting while he’s got momentum and on voter registration).

But, while the possibility that the Republicans could win can’t absolutely be excluded, it certainly is worthwhile posing the question of what happens if they do in fact lose.

Jonathan Freedland is one who has been thinking about where the GOP goes under an Obama presidency, and he makes quite an interesting case that Sarah Palin could position herself as a potential 2012 frontrunner. This is interesting for at least two reasons. First, Palin’s selection – among all the other obvious reasons – was a reflection of the failure of the “conservative movement” to produce a convincing Presidential candidate in the first place. One of the real stories of the swing away from the Republicans is the exhaustion and fracturing of many of the activist factions that were on a roll from the late 90s until just a few years ago. Secondly, it might explain some of the stories about friction between McCain himself and Palin over her tactics in this race recently.

Obama v. McCain: Debate Round 3 open thread

Published
by
Kim
1 year, 5 months ago
in USA
. 44 Comments

With Obama reaching new heights in the polls, Nate Silver more or less sums it up:

It’s fairly unusual for a candidate to have such a sustained run of momentum so deep into the campaign cycle. And it does appear to be real momentum, with some real feedback loops: the worse McCain’s poll numbers become, the more desperate his campaign looks, and the more desperate his campaign looks, the worse his poll numbers become.

McCain now has to go on a run of his own, a large enough run to wipe at least 8 points off of Obama’s lead, and perhaps more like 9 or 10 to cover his inferior position in the Electoral College and the votes that Obama is banking in early and absentee balloting. It is imperative that McCain does not just draw tomorrow night’s debate, does not just win a victory on points, but emerges with a resounding victory, the sort that leaves the spin room gasping for air.

There’s always the possibility that McCain might make the “one term” promise that’s supposed to have been tossed around in his campaign for a long time, as a final attempt at one of his crazybrave “game changers”, but with Palin now very much on the nose with independents and swing voters, that doesn’t look too clever. Meanwhile, Obama may have set a bit of a trap for Walnuts by claiming he’s too yella to raise William Ayers to his face. McCain says he’ll bring up Ayers. Given that most people think the Obama hangs with terrsts card is a big downer, except with the more rabid elements of the base and Fox News and the right wing bloggers, this may be a very bad move.

Update [by Mark] Liveblogging at FiveThirtyEight.com, Feministe, Feministing, Crooks & Liars, Think Progress and this girl called automatic win.

The good, the Maverick and the ugly: dispatches from the Straight Talk Express

Published
by
Kim
1 year, 5 months ago
in Activism, Culture, Film, TV, Video etc, Foreign Elections, Nationalism, Race and USA
. 70 Comments

With less than a month to go til America votes, barring any more mad game changing moves or even an October Surprise from Osama Bin Laden or the tattered remains of the Bush administration, all the smart money is on the financial crisis seeing Barack Obama translate the momentum he’s built up into a pretty impressive victory in the Electoral College. What does the GOP have left? It’s surely significant that there are rumours around that the GOP itself – the Republican National Committee – is thinking of pulling funding from McCain advertising and pushing it into Senate races to attempt to forefend a 60 vote filibuster proof Democratic Senate majority (the Senators defending seats this year are those first elected in the Bush first term post s11 surge of the 2002 mid terms). So how about the old white dude himself? There’s one more debate. There may be more lunacy. But there’s certainly lots of ugliness, as the Culture Warriors of the base show their ugly face.

[Via Majikthise, but it's just about everywhere on the web - it's so viral it might just be this cycle's Macaca moment.]

Continue reading ‘The good, the Maverick and the ugly: dispatches from the Straight Talk Express’

Obama McCain debate open thread

Published
by
Kim
1 year, 5 months ago
in Blogging, Foreign Elections and Polls
. 43 Comments

Here they go again! Televised, streamed, etc. in all the usual places. Comment and link as you will. Recycling of partisan talking points strongly discouraged.

A couple of discussion starters – Nate Silver:

Are John McCain’s negative attacks succeeding in eating into some of Barack Obama’s support? They certainly aren’t yet. In fact, Barack Obama has had perhaps his strongest individual polling day of the year.

And my favourite blogger evah (well, up there anyway!), Michael Bérubé:

Continue reading ‘Obama McCain debate open thread’

“The gloves are off”

Published
by
Mark
1 year, 5 months ago
in Economics, Foreign Elections, Markets, Sociology and USA
. 108 Comments

The McCain campaign has gone into full on negative smear mode, with Governor Sarah Palin playing the traditional attack role of the Vice-Presidential candidate.

Apparently Obama has been consorting with terrorists, because he once knew a member of the Weathermen (long afterwards and when Bill Ayers had become an educator and a Distinguished Professor at the University of Chicago). All these allegations were aired during the primaries – and no doubt the Rev. Wright stuff is being readied for an encore. Reading this article on the campaign in Florida really does show how much dissemination the loathsome “Muslim sleeper” stuff is getting as well, and Palin’s attack on Obama as some sort of terrorist sympathiser will reinforce that theme among those disposed to believe it, or to have doubts.

Continue reading ‘“The gloves are off”’

The Palin Biden debate haiku thread we had to have

Published
by
Kim
1 year, 5 months ago
in Culture, Foreign Elections, Language, Levity, Media, Politics and USA
. 34 Comments

Jennifer Schuessler at the New York Times has been boosting the “turn the Veep debate into a poetry slam” movement. Two poems selected from her Paper Cuts blog post:

Haiku’s not the form
For Senator Joe Biden
Because the last line may come out slightly longer than is absolutely necessary due to the subject’s ability to analogize all topics to a seminal moment in the history of this great nation of ours, America, the UNITED states of America

-Henry Alford

So jobs, they … you know,
Health care’s really …. it’s — Katie,
That bridge? I said no.

-David Orr

[Via Quick Study]

Biden Palin debate! Open thread

Published
by
Kim
1 year, 5 months ago
in Blogging, Foreign Elections, Media and USA
. 152 Comments

As everyone probably knows, the Veep debate will be televised live at 11am AEST on both ABC1 and SBS (which also has live streaming online if you’re not near a tv).

Any links to liveblogging of the debate appreciated.

Context in this earlier post and Amanda’s post on Biden at Hoyden About Town.

Update [by Mark]: Liveblogging at Firedoglake, Feministing and FiveThirtyEight.com.

Welcome to the Palindrome!

Published
by
Kim
1 year, 5 months ago
in Foreign Elections and USA
. 83 Comments

[I'm borrowing the pun from Michael Bérubé]

In the absence of any more “game changing” impulsive madness from Walnuts, all eyes will probably be on the Veeps debate on Friday – although our friends in the House Republicans or more spectacular crashes on Wall Street might diminish the focus a tad. Sarah Palin won’t be able to pull a McCain though, and “suspend” her campaign, after that trick spectacularly failed as Walnuts slunk out of Washington calling for bipartisanship on one hand while slagging off Obama on the other, after fairly poor reviews of whatever contribution he may have made to the crisis from his fellow Republicans. Nor will Palin be dropped from the ticket – I think (presuming there’s any rationality to the McCain strategy). As Nate Silver observes, there are at least three good reasons why it would be dumb (but again, I’m thinking dumb is the name of the McCain game). And the last time a Veep candidate was dumped – Thomas Eagleton in 72 – McGovern dropped 7 points in the polls.

Anyway, that’s that for the moment, but in this increasingly bizarre campaign which in true postmodern style seems to have as fictive a relationship to the real world as all that fictitious capital swirling around Wall Street waiting for the government to buy it, who knows what lies ahead, or even what lies lie ahead. My main purpose in posting was to draw attention to two excellent pieces from two of my favourite Stateside online writers on the bizarre phenomenon that is the Palin pick, something I continue to believe deserves more analysis than just political calculation or the desire to diss implies.

Continue reading ‘Welcome to the Palindrome!’

The End of Politics and the Last McCain

Published
by
Kim
1 year, 6 months ago
in Foreign Elections, Philosophy and USA
. 12 Comments

Alexandre Kojève

If Man becomes an animal again, his arts, his loves, his plays must also become purely natural again. Hence it would have to be admitted that after the end of history, men would construct their edifices and works of art as birds build their nests and spiders spin their webs, would perform musical concerts after the fashion of frogs and cicadas, would play like young animals and would indulge in love like adult beasts.

Friedrich Nietzsche

Alas, the time is coming when man will no longer give birth to a star. Alas, the time of the most despicable man is coming, he that is no longer able to despise himself. Behold, I show you the last man.

John McQuaid

In 2004, George W Bush’s denunciations of John Kerry as a liberal Washington insider who had trouble articulating clear positions also had the ring of truth.

Those campaigns were slick and sophisticated attempts to shape public opinion. By contrast, McCain’s ads and rhetoric sound like they’re generated by a bunch of twentysomething Republican bloggers, strung out on caffeine at 3am, each trying to out-snark all the others. The main thing the campaign has going for it is sheer outrageousness – that is, by hitting every conceivable cultural hot button and repeating untruths over and over, it will both get an anti-Obama message out and also dominate the news cycle.

Obligatory Palin interview thread

Published
by
tigtog
1 year, 6 months ago
in Foreign Elections, Media and USA
. 83 Comments

While it’s cringeworthy it was actually worse than I expected. I’m not sure that it will actually make much change in the perceptions that people already have about her due to partisan bias. It may well sway some actual Independents though.

Transcript of the full interview: ABC

AP: Palin tries to defend qualifications in interview

YouTube Snark de Jour: John McCain Explains The Bush Doctrine To Sarah Palin

From the Jed Report (h/t to Pam Spaulding)

So how about that Obama?

Published
by
Kim
1 year, 6 months ago
in Foreign Elections and USA
. 39 Comments

As a bit of a follow up to Mark’s post on the latest travails of the Democratic campaign, here’s a link to a very interesting article which includes interviews with both Obama and McCain’s campaign managers. My take? Obama (and Axelrod) are running a very successful strategy to defeat Hillary Clinton by a whisker in the primaries. Oopsy! Hang on! General election time? Oh dear.

Incidentally, the 50 state strategy isn’t looking so good.

Continue reading ‘So how about that Obama?’

McCain: Gaming the media and the blogosphere

Published
by
Mark
1 year, 6 months ago
in Blogging, Ethics, Foreign Elections, Media, Polls, Sociology, USA and Women
. 129 Comments

Although aspects of his critique are tentatively sketched by his own admission, Jay Rosen has hit more nails than he’s missed with his analysis of the significance of the Sarah Palin veep selection by the McCain campaign. Rosen’s article is rightly getting a lot of attention. It’s “personalities, not issues” as McCain’s campaign manager Rick Davis said, and the dark divisive arts of Karl Rove are being revived for the umpteenth time, and to date, are apparently working. Though in an somewhat problematic article in Salon, problematic because of the gender stereotypes it re-enacts while purportedly criticising them, Gary Kamiya provides some hope for thinking the Democrats might turn things around. But the controversy over Palin’s claims to have opposed the infamous “bridge to nowhere” illustrates the double bind the GOP have the Democrats in.

At least the turf this issue – the purported opposition to earmarks and pork that Palin is supposed to share with McCain – is being fought over is a public policy issue rather than all the personalised stuff which just puts the Democrats and the media where the GOP want them. But Obama’s reluctance to use the words “lies” and “liars” shows he knows the score. He’s being criticised for that by liberal bloggers, who are cheering on the media “fact checking” exercise.

But all this truthiness is also at great risk of playing into the GOP’s hands – because it reinforces the equation of the media and blogosphere with the Democrats Rosen identified as the tactical positioning the Republicans want – and which George W. Bush reinforced with his claims about “the angry left” in his RNC video link. The culture wars schtick works – because the America of Wal-Marts and small town “values” has more electoral power in the swing states that count than the wonky redoubts of the blue staters. And a lot of those voters – who don’t source their news from the internet but from cable tv – and get their analysis from others of like mind in their own circles rather than bloggers, commentators and wonks – are seeing what McCain wants them to see – a feisty outsider being beaten up by the Beltway elite. Hence McCain’s polling gains, among other demographics, with white women.

Continue reading ‘McCain: Gaming the media and the blogosphere’