Larvatus Prodeo

In the wake of today’s extraordinary events in the Coalition party room, Malcolm Turnbull could put to good use the very qualities he’s usually been panned by his right wing colleagues and the commentariat for having – displaying some courage by making an impetuous gamble from a risky position. The fact that neither Wilson Tuckey nor Kevin Andrews were able to orchestrate a spill during or after the protracted on again, off again meeting is telling. If they actually had the numbers to roll Turnbull, it would have been on. Because the split inside the Liberal party is so entrenched, it’s highly likely that Turnbull has about the same base level of support as he had when elected. In other words, whatever Peter Van Onselen and the commentariat may think, Turnbull has the numbers. That’s been proved today.

The denialists want a couple of extra days to try to turn the numbers around. Nick Minchin’s concession in the days leading up to the showdown that the CPRS should be decoupled from the leadership question is not an act of loyalty to Turnbull, but a sign that he knows that while he is able to muster a fair number of crazy Senators to support his die in the ditch attitude, he cannot muster a majority of Liberals to overthrow his leader. Let’s not forget that the Nats, who are firmly in the denialist camp, have no vote for the Liberal leader. Hence also all the veiled threats about leaving the Coalition – it’s the only way they can exercise influence over the Liberal leadership.

Turnbull should follow through on what his numbers folks were up to before the meeting – “put the stick about”, in Francis Urquhart’s memorable phrase, and focus attentions on the long delayed reshuffle. Casting Abbott and Robb overboard would be a plus, and any spill threat could be turned around to include Minchin’s gig as Senate Leader.

There is no future for the Liberal party in playing to a portion of its base which holds antideluvian attitudes on almost every issue in the book. They will not vote Labor in a pink fit, anyway. He has to reach out to the centre, and the best way to do so would be to take on the dinosaurs in his own party and establish firm control.

He might also wish to find a way to stop all the dissenters’ views being immediately recycled in The Australian. It’s quite possible for a leader who wins narrowly, but who can’t be overthrown (and the fact that Andrews is seen as a plausible candidate shows just how risible the right wing putsch is) to start acting like a leader, and become one.

Then, and only then, Kevin Rudd might have a fight on his hands.

Interesting times.

Update: George Brandis on Lateline added further confirmation to the vapid nature of most of the leadership spill talk, by mentioning that Tony Abbott had endorsed Turnbull’s leadership at the meeting, and – significantly – that Turnbull had called for people to indicate their desire for a spill at the end, and no one had. We also know that Liberal party rules don’t mean that a letter from two backbenchers seeking a meeting on the leadership necessarily has any consequences. Brandis also indicated that Turnbull had a large majority of Liberals behind him. As I pointed out, the Nats don’t get a vote on the leadership.

And as Annabel Crabb suggested, the Kevin Andrews candidacy hasn’t exactly sparked massive enthusiasm. Even Bolta’s ardour appears to have cooled as the night’s worn on. Van Onselen was back in default mode of “Liberal sources say, high level discussions behind the scenes…” – which is pretty much what he and his mates have been writing all year. If Turnbull wants to give the commentariat a few more thrills and spills, I suspect they’ll only come from a reshuffle.

Update: Bernard Keane:

Continue reading ‘Crash through or crash? What Turnbull should do now…’