Rob recently discussed the passage of the Waxman-Markey emissions trading bill through the US House of Representatives, and there’s been much written about its impact both on global climate change negotiations and on the chances of the CPRS legislation in the Australian Senate. What hasn’t received too much coverage in our press is the fact that Steve Fielding’s antics and the Australian Senate’s vote are being used by the climate change denialist clique in the States to mount a campaign against the Waxman-Markey bill. It’s completely cynical, of course, and the Wall Street Journal – which has been leading the charge – has been falsely reporting that the Senate here voted to reject the bill, and to reject the bill because of a lack of acceptance of climate change science. Obviously, that wasn’t the case for The Greens, and probably some of the other Senators who voted against immediate consideration.
To put it mildly, though, it’s hardly helpful, and it’s illustrative of the despicable tactics which the globally interconnected forces of reaction are prepared to employ.
This issue isn’t directly canvassed by Nate Silver, but he has written a very interesting post at FiveThirtyEight.com on the chances of the Climate Change Bill receiving 60 votes in the US Senate (which it will need to survive a filibuster) – recommended reading.
I’d like to play poker against Steve Fielding. If his actions over the alcopops tax are any guide, he’d bet all his chips with a lousy hand – after showing it to all the other players. The net result of his decision to block the legislation enabling the tax, after the other cross-benchers negotiated some quite sensible improvements to the deal? Cheaper Bacardi Breezers for teenagers to regurgitate, and a lost opportunity to replace $50 million of alcoholic sporting sponsorship with healthier alternatives. Not to mention a decent-size hole in the budget that will have to be filled elsewhere. It’s hard to imagine that this is the kind of outcome that his supporters wanted, inscrutable though they sometimes are. No wonder Bob Brown gave Fielding a carpeting in Parliament.
While Nick Xenophon is straight from the Brian Harradine school of independent Senators, at least the bloke seems to understand how to negotiate to achieve the best result he can get. Fielding, at the moment, is turning the passage of any particular legislation through the Senate into a coin-tossing exercise. The sooner the Senate numbers change to remove him from his current position of influence, the better off we will all be.
Possum has done an admirable job of spelling out the political implications of the stalling of the stimulus package in the Senate [see also Rob's earlier posts]:
The real irony here is it’s the bloke in the middle [Malcolm Turnbull] that’s probably the one completely sh*tting himself, because if this package fails to get through the Senate, the fallout against Turnbull by the public will be enormous. Every piece of bad news will become his fault in the mind of a huge chunk of the public – Labor will make sure of it. That better economic manager series we looked at earlier might become a nostalgic golden age for the Coalition.
It now appears that the legislation will be passed again by the House of Representatives – where no doubt all guns will be trained on the Opposition – and be returned to the Senate tomorrow while negotiations continue. It will probably pass after some more horsetrading, though that’s not certain. Labor will be dramatising the near miss, and putting all the blame on Turnbull rather than Xenophon and Fielding.
This is hardly a fabulous situation for the country, but the politics could hardly get any better for the government. A few points to make: Continue reading ‘The politics of the Senate vote on the stimulus package’
Simon Jackman has the good oil on what Bob Brown and Steve Fielding are putting on the table as Senate deliberations on Kevin Rudd’s fiscal stimulus continue. Both are emphasising the unemployed and job creation (with Brown arguing for green measures as well). I suspect that this manoeuvring might factor more into what comes out of the Budget sausage machine. The government has clearly been shifting its rhetoric on the unemployed, and I would expect the minors to be told that people on benefits will benefit as a result of the Henry Review. So it may be that some commitments might be made for future measures in exchange for current support. That would still, however, give the minor party Senators a real chance to shape the response to the economic downturn.
Thanks to commenter Bird of paradox on a previous thread for drawing my attention to the creation of a Facebook group “Come on Turnbull, don’t take away my $950 bucks !”. As of this morning, it was the largest political Facebook group in Australia with 5000 members and a goal of 8000 by 9pm tonight. They’ll easily reach that. When I checked in five minutes ago, there were 7887 members. Another 60 have joined now. The group creator describes his motivation this way:
We are sending a clear message that Australians need this boost. As a uni student I need help to buy my text books, my mother is a single parent who needs help and my brother is heading into year 12 and he needs it….
Think about how much difference this bonus will make to you and your families…
The group page also provides information on how to lobby Senators.
Very interesting indeed.
Elsewhere: Terry Flew.
Elsewhere: The Age:
Australians planning to spend Prime Minister Kevin Rudd’s promised $950 bonus on holidays, new drum kits, Wii games, tattoos and weekend-long benders have flooded into a new Facebook group.
At Catallaxy, Jason Soon thinks we’re “luvvies”. Quelle surprise! No doubt John Greenfield will be along soon to show off the calibre of intellectual debate Catallaxy is renowned for all over the intertubes.
Update: 465333 members as of 1.30pm Saturday Brisbane time.
Peter Martin is reporting that the government will be releasing an economic stimulus package today which will include something on pensions – to be announced at around midday. He suggests about $5 billion will be pumped into the economy. [Update (dk.au): the total is $10.4bn or 1% of GDP]
I wouldn’t be at all surprised if Steve Fielding was tipped off about this – it might contextualise his about face on voting for the alcopops tax and the Medicare Levy changes.
This is the fiscal policy two step following up the Reserve Bank’s 1% cut in rates – which is still a tad contractionary.
With all the attention on the role of Brendon Grylls and the Nationals as the kingmakers in the WA election result, the improvement in the Greens’ vote has slipped under the radar somewhat. Counting subsequent to election night has seen their vote climb to almost 12% of the Legislative Assembly total according to the WAEC (which is interestingly slightly higher than the Greens’ vote in the Legislative Council).
But, if the Fin Review is to be believed, the significance of a 4% plus swing to the Greens hasn’t escaped the attention of ALP wonks. “Labor hardheads” are quoted by the paper as concerned by the vote in Fremantle, and the implications for the seats of Federal Ministers such as Lindsay Tanner, Anthony Albanese and Tanya Plibersek. “Labor strategists” are cited as concerned about a drift away among “left-leaning voters”.
This is hardly rocket science. Any modern managerialist ALP government is bound to disappoint at least some left voters after the initial euphoria of a Tory defeat has worn off. And the Greens nationally are going to have a much bigger profile with a balance of power role in the Senate and new Senators who may develop a high profile. The article, however, leaves us none the wiser as to how “Labor strategists” think their party should respond.
Continue reading ‘Greens back in the spotlight after the WA election?’
When I noted the establishment of OpenAustralia as a new initiative in facilitating public scrutiny of Parliament, I expressed a wish that the Senate would be included as well as the House – because that’s where a lot of the action is in terms of committees and bills. I’m very pleased to read that just in time for the first sitting of the new Senate next week – when The Greens, Nick Xenophon and Steve Fielding will hold the balance of power – they’ve added the Senate to their website.
Recent comments
Fascinated, Paul Burns, PinkyOz, Saint Furious of Ikea, JohnL, sg [...]
Paul Burns, Bert, Rx, Paul Burns, Andos
Razor, anthony nolan, Legal Eagle, Tim Dymond, Nickws, iorarua [...]
Razor, terangeree, Deborah, Saint Furious of Ikea, terangeree, terangeree [...]
anthony nolan, Helen, Nickws, kph, Helen, Caroline Church [...]
Saint Furious of Ikea, Chris, Paul Burns, David Irving (no relation), joe2, David Irving (no relation) [...]
Fran Barlow, Robert Merkel, Kiashu, Mervyn Langford, OldSkeptic, Frankie V. [...]
anthony, Ginja, Anthony, Terry, Alison, anthony nolan [...]
Chris, Ken Lovell, Gummo Trotsky, desipis, Pavlov's Cat, Pavlov's Cat [...]
RightHandThread, Nabakov, rumrebellious, Nabakov, RightHandThread, RightHandThread [...]
Fran Barlow, CMMC, Gummo Trotsky, Guido, pablo, Saint Furious of Ikea [...]
Fascinated, Laura, Casey, Liam, anthony nolan, pablo [...]