By Kim on September 26, 2010
It’s interesting to contrast reports of two ALP reflections on the election result – one in Crikey on the thoughts of Victorian MP Martin Foley, and one in The Drum on a meeting of the NSW Right, penned by Glenn [...]
Posted in Media, Politics | Tagged abc, ALP, battlers, Crikey, Federal Election 2010, Glenn Milne, John Howard, Julia Gillard, Karl Bitar, Kevin Rudd, Labor, martin foley, neo-liberalism, Petrie, post-mortem, progressives, recriminations, swing |
By Kim on August 23, 2010
Mindy suggested a thread on how the outcome of the election differed so much from most predictions. So here it is! I think only one pundit in the MSM predicted a clear Coalition victory – David Penberthy of The Punch. [...]
Posted in federal election 2010, Polls | Tagged betting markets, Davind Penberthy, election result, Federal Election 2010, hung parliament, Polls, predictions, swing, The Punch |
By Mark Bahnisch on August 20, 2010
Published in today’s Crikey email: We’re drowning in polls at the moment, and rumours of polls. I’ve been writing in recent days about the futility of over-interpreting polls, and it’s also been suggested that the key to divining this election [...]
Posted in Brisbane, federal election 2010, Queensland | Tagged ALP, Anna Bligh, Bligh government, Federal Election 2010, Kevin Rudd, Labor, labor seats, LNP, marginals, Mark Bahnisch, Polls, queensland seats, swing |
By Mark Bahnisch on August 19, 2010
I wrote yesterday about the futility of trying to make direct extrapolations from a multitude of polls to the election result. Today, we’ve seen one of the other standard tropes of campaigning – the claim that “leaked party polling shows…” [...]
Posted in federal election 2010, NSW Government, Polls | Tagged Federal Election 2010, internal party polling, Julia Gillard, Kristina Keneally, Media, national press club, new south wales, NSW, NSW Labor, Polls, state issues, swing, swings |
By Kim on July 30, 2010
Two polls are out today, both taken on Wednesday night. Galaxy and Morgan both show the race narrowing, with Labor losing 2% on the two party preferred and 2.5% respectively. Details are at Possum’s place. There’s also an earlier Morgan, [...]
Posted in Adelaide, Brisbane, federal election 2010, Polls | Tagged Boothby, Federal Election 2010, Galaxy, marginal seats, Morgan, Polls, possum, Queensland, South Australia, Sturt, swing |
By Kim on July 14, 2010
Two recent events have prompted me to ponder how federal Labor is traveling in Queensland. Yesterday, we saw Flynn MP Chris Trevor make an impassioned defence of Kevin Rudd against what he identified as the factional forces that brought him [...]
Posted in Brisbane, Elections, Federal Elections, Politics, Polls, Queensland | Tagged ALP, Anna Bligh, AWU, Bill Ludwig, Chris Trevor, Christopher Pyne, Coalition, Dennis Atkins, electorates, Federal Election 2010, Federal Elections, Flynn, Galaxy, Julia Gillard, Julie Bishop, Kevin Rudd, Labor, marginal seats, Nielsen, Polls, privatisation, Queensland, seats, swing |
By Gummo Trotsky on June 23, 2010
William Bowe of The Poll Bludger wrote this piece for Crikey today, which we’re republishing with permission. This article is part of a weekly feature in the lead up to the 2010 federal election, and if you’d like to read [...]
Posted in Brisbane, Elections, Federal Elections, Politics, Polls | Tagged ALP, Arch Bevis, Bert van Manen, Blair, Bonner, Bowman, Brett Raguse, Brisbane, Clive Palmer, Coalition, Crikey, Dickson, Federal Election 2010, Forde, Griffith, Jon Sullivan, Kerry Rea, Kevin Rudd, Labor, Lilley, LNP, Longman, Mal Brough, marginal seats, Michael Johnson, Michael Palmer, Moreton, Newspoll, Oxley Rankin, Peter Dutton, Petrie, Poll Bludger, polling, Polls, preferences, redistribution, Rudd government, Ryan, Shayne Neumann, swing, Tereas Gambaro, William Bowe, Wyatt Roy, Yvette D'ath |
The state elections and federal implications
By Mark Bahnisch on March 20, 2010
In tonight’s counts, it appears clear that the ALP has narrowly held on in South Australia, containing the swing against the government to 1.7% in the marginals, with much of the state wide anti-Labor swing washing through safe seats, while [...]
Posted in Elections, Federal Elections, Media, Sociology, State/Territory Elections | Tagged ALP, campaigning, Christopher Pearson, Coalition, commentariat, comparative politics, election results, electoral systems, federal implications, federal politics, Kevin Rudd, Labor, Liberal Party, marginal seats, Michelle Grattan, Mike Rann, Peter Van Onselen, political culture, South Australia election 2010, state politics, swing, Tasmanian election 2010, The Greens | 65 Responses